View Full Version : Finding a new QB......interesting article

02-26-2010, 01:22 PM
I don't know if Cassel will or won't work out. But, I found this article and it paints an interesting picture....

Here it is. (http://www.classactsports.com/field-pass/statistical-juggernaut-finding-the-perfect-quarterback.html)

02-26-2010, 03:48 PM
This is what I get from that link.

404 - Article #463 not found

02-26-2010, 05:42 PM
This is what I get from that link.
This is what I got

Where do you find the perfect quarterback? How should teams with a quarterback need approach the draft? These are questions that have been around since the legalization of the forward pass.

In the modern NFL, a franchise quarterback is a pre-requisite to achieving success on the field.

The last seven Super Bowls havebeen won by teams with unquestioned stability at the position. In order, the last seven championships were won by teams led by Tom Brady (twice), Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees. Each of these players will likely lead their respective team for a decade or more.

So, if you’re not one of the 10-15 teams in the NFL with security at the quarterback position (the “Haves”), how do you become one? What are the pros and cons of taking a first-round QB? Can you get equal value at the position later in the draft?

Let’s look at the facts.

Below is a table with information about each team’s 2009 starting quarterback. Specifically, the table shows each quarterback’s draft round (if drafted) when he entered the league, and whether the player is still with his original team.

The table is sorted by regular season wins in the 2009 season. (a – indicates playoff team). Team Quarterback Draft Round With Original Team a-Indianapolis Colts Peyton Manning 1 Y a-San Diego Chargers Philip Rivers 1 Y a-New Orleans Saints Drew Brees 2 N a-Minnesota Vikings Brett Favre 2 N a-Dallas Cowboys Tony Romo Undrafted Y a-Philadelphia Eagles Donovan McNabb 1 Y a-Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers 1 Y a-New England Patriots Tom Brady 6 Y a-Cincinnati Bengals Carson Palmer 1 Y a-Arizona Cardinals Kurt Warner Undrafted N a-New York Jets Mark Sanchez 1 Y a-Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco 1 Y Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger 1 Y Houston Texans Matt Schaub 3 N Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan 1 Y Tennessee Titans Vince Young 1 Y Denver Broncos Kyle Orton 4 N New York Giants Eli Manning 1 Y Carolina Panthers Jake Delhomme Undrafted N San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith 1 Y Miami Dolphins Chad Henne 2 Y Jacksonville Jaguars David Garrard 4 Y Chicago Bears Jay Cutler 1 N Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards / Ryan Fitzpatrick 3 / 7 Y/ N Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson 1 / 7 Y/ N Oakland Raiders Jamarcus Russell 1 Y Seattle Seahawks Matt Hasselbeck 6 N Kansas City Chiefs Matt Cassel 7 N Washington Redskins Jason Campbell 1 Y Tampa Bay Buccaneers Josh Freeman 1 Y Detroit Lions Matt Stafford 1 Y St. Louis Rams Marc Bulger 6 N
A few things jump out:

• First-rounders rule the roost, but….

If you were to use this list - and only this list – you would come to the conclusion that a first-round QB is the way to go. Seven of the 12 playoff quarterbacks were selected in the first round and are still with their original teams.

However, since 1998, 33 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Each of these players was obviously expected to hold down the position for the foreseeable future.

In 2009, only 18 of those were starters for their respective teams. Further, 12 of those 18 were drafted in 2005 or later. Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell are on their last legs before being labeled as busts. It’s too soon to tell with Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman (and, maybe, Jay Cutler).

So, if you eliminate the three quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2009 draft, you could say that 14 out of 30 QBs became franchise players – to some degree. Four more have starting careers on life support. That’s a less than fifty percent hit rate – on what is typically a huge investment.

• Waiting until the second round doesn’t work…

With a few exceptions, players selected in the second round are expected to be starters sooner rather than later.

Since 2001, ten quarterbacks have been selected in the second round of the NFL draft.

Year Team Team 2001 Drew Brees San Diego 2001 Quincy Carter Dallas 2001 Marques Tuiasosopo Oakland 2006 Kellen Clemens NY Jets 2007 Kevin Kolb Philadelphia 2007 John Beck Miami 2007 Drew Stanton Detroit 2008 Brian Brohm Green Bay 2008 Chad Henne Miami 2009 Pat White Miami

These names are very telling. Only one of these quarterbacks – Chad Henne of the Dolphins - is currently a starter for the team that drafted him. Henne just finished his second year and, although he impressed with his play, he is anything but a surefire long-term starter.

Pat White, also of the Dolphins, was not drafted to play quarterback.

So, if you eliminate Henne and White you are left with eight quarterbacks picked in the second round since 2001. None are starters with their original teams.

Drew Brees is a starter in New Orleans, but only after being replaced in San Diego by Philip Rivers. Also, Brees was the 32nd pick in the draft. In today’s NFL, that would be a first-round pick (The Houston Texans had not yet joined the league).

Brett Favre was also a second-round pick, but he doesn’t make the list because he was drafted in 1845 (or, maybe it was 1991). But, for the record, Favre also did not find success until he joined his second team.

To be fair, Kevin Kolb may still become a franchise quarterback. Regardless, the case can, and should, be made that the second round is a wasteland for quarterbacks.

There are many possibilities as to why second-round quarterbacks fail at such a high rate.

Perhaps it is because of the smaller financial commitment required for a second-rounder. Teams are quick to replace them when given the opportunity to get a blue-chipper in the first round. Drew Stanton and Kellen Clemens would seem to fall into this category.

Sometimes, when new management is put in place they want their own player at the game’s most important position. And, again, the financial commitment is not large enough for owners to make a fuss. This would be the category for John Beck.

The fact is that quarterbacks selected in the second round, a draft position that should be reserved for players who will have some success in the league, fail at very high rates.

• But, just because Tom Brady is a star doesn’t mean teams should wait until later in the draft…

Year Team Round 2009 Team Original Team 1994 Kurt Warner Undrafted Arizona Green Bay 1997 Jake Delhomme Undrafted Carolina New Orleans 1998 Matt Hasselbeck 6 Seattle Green Bay 2000 Tom Brady 6 New England New England 2000 Marc Bulger 6 St. Louis New Orleans 2002 David Garrard 4 Jacksonville Jacksonville 2003 Tony Romo Undrafted Dallas Dallas 2004 Matt Schaub 3 Houston Atlanta 2005 Kyle Orton 4 Denver Chicago 2005 Matt Cassel 7 Kansas City New England 2005 Derek Anderson 7 Cleveland Baltimore 2005 Ryan Fitzpatrick 7 Buffalo St. Louis 2007 Trent Edwards 3 Buffalo Buffalo

Of the 32 players listed above as starters in 2009, 10 (including two Buffalo Bills) were drafted after the second round. Three more were undrafted. So, 13 of the 32 starting quarterbacks were not drafted in the first or second round.

Taken at face value, this would lead to the conclusion that teams should be able to find their starters later in the draft.

Unfortunately, this is not necessarily true.

Of the 10 starters drafted after the first round, only three (Tom Brady, Trent Edwards and David Garrard) are still with their original team, although Edwards’ starting job is tenuous at best.

Tony Romo is the only undrafted starter still with his original team.

This does not suggest that picking quarterbacks in later rounds is a fruitless endeavor. Many later-round choices have yielded significant return in the trade market.

Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Cassel all ended up helping their original team by having value in the trade market.

However, teams who hope to find a hidden gem in later rounds need to take the approach of throwing things at the wall and see what sticks.

Take the Patriots and Brady as an example. Many people are quick to give Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick credit for finding Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 draft. While the praise is warranted to a degree, I’m sure Pioli and Belichick would be the first to say that Brady was no more than a late-round flyer – a low risk, low reward pick (so they thought).

Since 1999, the Patriots have taken seven quarterbacks in the third round or later. In addition to Brady, the Patriots have taken flyers on Michael Bishop, Rohan Davey, Kliff Kingsbury, Kevin O’Connell, Matt Cassel and Julian Edelman.

Bishop, Davey and Kingsbury are out of the league. O’Connell was cut after only one year with the team. Cassel yielded the Patriots a second-round pick when he was traded to the Chiefs. Edelman was drafted to play receiver.

So, the most successful franchise in the NFL had to draft six later-round quarterbacks (not counting Edelman) to get two who had a positive return; two out of six! The kicker is that most teams would kill for the Patriots 33% success rate in the later rounds.


There are many ways to skin a cat, or find a franchise quarterback.

Your best chance at finding a long-term solution at the position would appear to be taking a blue-chipper in the first round. But, the risk is very high. A team has to pay top dollar for a player who has never set foot on an NFL field. Further, a team must dedicate the next three to four years to the quarterback’s development. A first round failure can set a team back several years.

The second round has not proven to be an effective way to find a quarterback.

Later rounds and undrafted free agents can provide a return, but success is a function of volume. Finding late-round gems requires a strategy of lining up several options and hoping one turns into Tom Brady.

02-28-2010, 06:32 PM
we got a QB

02-28-2010, 06:34 PM
we got a QB

That we do. Cassel is going to have a much better year this year IMO. Or at least I hope he will. GO CHIEFS

02-28-2010, 09:20 PM
That we do. Cassel is going to have a much better year this year IMO. Or at least I hope he will. GO CHIEFS

I think so too.