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View Full Version : We need to beat the Chargers to win the division



wilqb16
11-30-2010, 10:35 PM
Not to look ahead, but I think (please correct me if I am wrong) if we lose to the Chargers in two weeks and both of us finish at 11-5, they win the division.

According to NFL.COM, here are the tiebreakers in case of a division tie.

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss(The NFL is nothing if not thorough. It would be something if it ever came down to a coin toss.)

Currently, the Chargers and Chiefs are both 1-2 versus the division. If we lose to the Chargers we split in head-to-head but lose out because we would be 3-3 in the division and they would be 4-2 (provided we both win out).

For what it is worth, the Chiefs and Chargers have 14 common opponents on the schedule. Currently, the Chiefs are 4-4 in those games and the Chargers are 6-3 (Chargers have one uncommon opponent - the Bengals - remaining). Chiefs are screwed by having lost to two teams (the Texans and Colts) who the Chargers beat.

This becomes important if we should lose to the Chargers but then they lose another divison game, while we lose a non-division game. Now we are both 10-6, 1-1 and 3-3. However, in this scenario we are screwed because the non-division game would have to be against a common opponent (thats all we have left) and so we wind up with a common opponent record of 7-5 while the Chargers would be 8-4. Obviously, if we both lose to a division opponent it keeps us a game back, there so nothing changes in that scenario (we're 2-4, they are 3-3)

However, now for the good news, if the Chiefs beat the Donks this week and the Chargers in two weeks, it would take a virtual melt-down for us not to win the division. Reason being that we would now own a 2-0 record over the Chargers (the #1 tie-breaker) meaning they would have to overtake us in the standings while we have a two game lead (we'd be 9-4 and the Chargers 7-6). In this case, we'd have to lose the next three and they'd have to win the next three, which seems doubtful.

Such a scenario would potentially bring the Raiders (currently 5-6) into play, but looking at this has given me such a headache that I am going to wait to see what they do to see if they will even be relevant (since I suspect they won't).

Connie Jo
11-30-2010, 11:26 PM
Not to look ahead, but I think (please correct me if I am wrong) if we lose to the Chargers in two weeks and both of us finish at 11-5, they win the division.

According to NFL.COM, here are the tiebreakers in case of a division tie.

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss(The NFL is nothing if not thorough. It would be something if it ever came down to a coin toss.)

Currently, the Chargers and Chiefs are both 1-2 versus the division. If we lose to the Chargers we split in head-to-head but lose out because we would be 3-3 in the division and they would be 4-2 (provided we both win out).

For what it is worth, the Chiefs and Chargers have 14 common opponents on the schedule. Currently, the Chiefs are 4-4 in those games and the Chargers are 6-3 (Chargers have one uncommon opponent - the Bengals - remaining). Chiefs are screwed by having lost to two teams (the Texans and Colts) who the Chargers beat.

This becomes important if we should lose to the Chargers but then they lose another divison game, while we lose a non-division game. Now we are both 10-6, 1-1 and 3-3. However, in this scenario we are screwed because the non-division game would have to be against a common opponent (thats all we have left) and so we wind up with a common opponent record of 7-5 while the Chargers would be 8-4. Obviously, if we both lose to a division opponent it keeps us a game back, there so nothing changes in that scenario (we're 2-4, they are 3-3)

However, now for the good news, if the Chiefs beat the Donks this week and the Chargers in two weeks, it would take a virtual melt-down for us not to win the division. Reason being that we would now own a 2-0 record over the Chargers (the #1 tie-breaker) meaning they would have to overtake us in the standings while we have a two game lead (we'd be 9-4 and the Chargers 7-6). In this case, we'd have to lose the next three and they'd have to win the next three, which seems doubtful.

Such a scenario would potentially bring the Raiders (currently 5-6) into play, but looking at this has given me such a headache that I am going to wait to see what they do to see if they will even be relevant (since I suspect they won't).

I know this is an excellent and accurate analyzation, but my brain just can't comprehend it all, hahaha. It's not your fault, it's mine. :D

My analysis is this...we need to beat the Donkeys Sunday, and then we need to beat the Chargers. We just need to bring our best game and beat every team we face from here on out through Super Bowl. From that point we need to party it up the entire off season enjoying every moment of the Lombardi being proudly brought home to Arrowhead! Once the 2011 season begins, then we start all over again from that point figuring out what we have to do to keep the Lombardi at Arrowhead.

Now that ^ up there...my brain comprehends!!

:bananen_smilies046: :chiefs:

Lazeye
12-01-2010, 12:02 AM
Since the chargers have had there way for a few years in the div. I think the pressure that we have made by being at the top for so long this season, I think they choke and we take the div with ease. stranger things have happend. Todd Haley and Co. will not be denied our crew means business.

matthewschiefs
12-01-2010, 12:05 AM
Its simple for us we win out we win the AFC west. If the Chargers beat us then we need help from someone eles. The Chargers scare me. They do this every year. But maybe we are the team that puts a stop to that.

SIC J
12-01-2010, 02:19 AM
Chiefs need to beat the Chargers and win at least 2 of the 4 other games and they win the division no matter what.

whatwasthat?
12-01-2010, 03:17 AM
red pants for the charger game :lol:

it worked sunday

pbatrucker
12-01-2010, 09:17 AM
red pants for the charger game :lol:

it worked sunday

The last time we wore red pants on a regular basis, we won a SB.

rodu
12-01-2010, 09:27 AM
wouldn't hurt if some non playoff team decided to play spoiler and beat the Chargers either

Coach
12-01-2010, 10:44 AM
Chiefs need to beat the Chargers and win at least 2 of the 4 other games and they win the division no matter what.

This!:punk:

I think we can win 2 of the other 4 games. Really, it comes down to beating SD. If we lose to SD, we need SD to stumble to have a shot at the playoffs. If we beat SD, they'd need us to fall apart.

chiefnut
12-01-2010, 12:07 PM
I think we finish 11-5, only loss to sd while the chargers finish 10-6 w/only loss to den. after we put a thrashing on den to avenge that dismal loss earlier, sd will look past them and den will be stoked to get them at home and bounce back from the humiliation at ARROWHEAD.

2nd scenario they too trounce den but the bungles play spoiler w/nothing to lose and again look to be an easy win surprise the chargers.

OPLookn
12-01-2010, 01:00 PM
Everyone is looking past Denver saying well they thrashed us out there and we're at home so we'll beat them. We need to concentrate on using and abusing some donkeys. I'm talking oregon trail style here....going 40 miles in a day on quarter rations and burying little timmy on the side of the road because he's been walking for 10 days straight.

Let's focus on this Sunday!

N TX Dave
12-01-2010, 01:11 PM
Everyone is looking past Denver saying well they thrashed us out there and we're at home so we'll beat them. We need to concentrate on using and abusing some donkeys. I'm talking oregon trail style here....going 40 miles in a day on quarter rations and burying little timmy on the side of the road because he's been walking for 10 days straight.

Let's focus on this Sunday!
Yes we need to take it one game at a time if we lose this week it won't matter what we do next week. I am sure Todd is preaching that same thing this week I do know he wants to beat McDaniels bad and I would not be surprised to see him not call the dogs off I don't care how much we are up. When someone laughs at a concussion to an opposing player that is pretty bad, that has no place in the sport. I just hope we :whipping1: and :beat_DeadHorse:

sdcsp95
12-01-2010, 02:13 PM
I think we finish 11-5, only loss to sd while the chargers finish 10-6 w/only loss to den. after we put a thrashing on den to avenge that dismal loss earlier, sd will look past them and den will be stoked to get them at home and bounce back from the humiliation at ARROWHEAD.

2nd scenario they too trounce den but the bungles play spoiler w/nothing to lose and again look to be an easy win surprise the chargers.

The Chargers play the Broncos the last week of the season. IF we (the chargers) have a chance to win the AFCW in the final week vs Denver. I don't see us "Overlooking" Denver.

wilqb16
12-01-2010, 02:59 PM
I'm talking oregon trail style here....going 40 miles in a day on quarter rations and burying little timmy on the side of the road because he's been walking for 10 days straight.

Let's focus on this Sunday!

LOL...I agree completely that we need to focus on beating the Donks (I am sure Haley isn't letting the crew forget the beating we took a couple weeks back). However, it is interesting to look at the scenario in two weeks. In a sense, if we beat the Chargers, this game against Denver doesn't matter as much (just from a factual standpoint) because we still only need to the win 2 out of 3.

I also wonder how much of a mind game Haley's not shaking hands with McDaniels may have been...sort of adds fuel to the fire to keep the Chiefs focused...

matthewschiefs
12-01-2010, 03:40 PM
Everyone is looking past Denver saying well they thrashed us out there and we're at home so we'll beat them. We need to concentrate on using and abusing some donkeys. I'm talking oregon trail style here....going 40 miles in a day on quarter rations and burying little timmy on the side of the road because he's been walking for 10 days straight.

Let's focus on this Sunday!

Us winning the AFC west can only start with us beating Denver. If we lose Sunday I don't think that there is any way that we are able to make the playoffs. WE HAVE TO BEAT THE DONKEYS.

chiefnut
12-01-2010, 03:48 PM
The Chargers play the Broncos the last week of the season. IF we (the chargers) have a chance to win the AFCW in the final week vs Denver. I don't see us "Overlooking" Denver.


THAT is the perfect scenario, undefeated in nov/dec, easy pickins the last week to win the division, against a team that looks absolutely pathetic, can't ask for a better chance for the broncs . that's how they beat us, YOU"RE NEXT!!!

okikcfan
12-01-2010, 05:27 PM
The Chargers play the Raiders on Sunday, then KC, SF, Bengals and last the Bronco's. At the rate the Chargers are playing, besides the Chiefs game the rest are winable. Now the Chiefs play the Bronco's on Sunday then the Chargers, Rams Titans and last of all the Raiders. If we beat the Chargers, and the (Chiefs Will) then it's over for the Chargers. Either way we, for what we have, we have done very well this season and I for one am pleased with the results.

wilqb16
12-01-2010, 10:26 PM
Us winning the AFC west can only start with us beating Denver. If we lose Sunday I don't think that there is any way that we are able to make the playoffs. WE HAVE TO BEAT THE DONKEYS.

Actually, if we lose to the Donkeys this Sunday but beat the Chargers and win out. We would would beat the Chargers outright with a record of 11-5 to the Chargers 10-6 mark.

Actually, we could lose to the Donkeys, beat the Chargers and lose one more and would still win the division. In this scenario we wind up tied with the Chargers at 10-6, but win the division by virtue of our 2-0 record against them.

Having said that, I think we have to beat the Donkeys not for mathematical reasons but for psychological ones. Losing the 2nd one to the Donks at home would really hurt our mojo. On the other hand, going into San Diego, on a 3-0 run and having just retalliated against the Donks is about as good as it gets...

Coach
12-01-2010, 10:47 PM
I think if can get healthy, there is nobody on our schedule that we can't beat. We need McCluster, Flowers, and Albert back.

pbatrucker
12-01-2010, 10:49 PM
I think if can get healthy, there is nobody on our schedule that we can't beat. We need McCluster, Flowers, and Albert back.
Looks like we are getting DMC and Alpert back for sure, Flowers probably.

SIC J
12-01-2010, 11:42 PM
Looks like we are getting DMC and Alpert back for sure, Flowers probably.

Yeah I just saw on NFL.com that neither of them are on the injured list. Thats good news!

matthewschiefs
12-01-2010, 11:47 PM
Yeah I just saw on NFL.com that neither of them are on the injured list. Thats good news!


That is great news. Our team has been on a row the last couple of weeks and we just got better.

tornadospotter
12-02-2010, 01:03 AM
We need our players healthy from here on, and we need to focus on one game at a time. I not worried about the dolts, there not our next game. I am worried about the donks, and beating them, in a most lopsided way! But I will take a W anyway we get it. This is a critical game. We must win! But those dang donks, always seem to make the game at Arrowhead go down to the last quarter. I want to thrash them from the start, and not let up! But most of all, I want a win with no injuries.

Chiefster
12-02-2010, 01:49 AM
We need our players healthy from here on, and we need to focus on one game at a time. I not worried about the dolts, there not our next game. I am worried about the donks, and beating them, in a most lopsided way! But I will take a W anyway we get it. This is a critical game. We must win! But those dang donks, always seem to make the game at Arrowhead go down to the last quarter. I want to thrash them from the start, and not let up! But most of all, I want a win with no injuries.

...This!

Although, I wouldn't object to the Faders getting lucky and beating the Dolts!

tornadospotter
12-02-2010, 01:57 AM
...This!

Although, I wouldn't object to the Faders getting lucky and beating the Dolts!
And That!

Chiefster
12-02-2010, 02:12 AM
And That!


:bananen_smilies046:

wildcat
12-02-2010, 11:38 AM
We probably have to beat the Chargers to make the playoffs at all. The last two wildcard spots are most likely going to the 2nd place teams in the AFC North and East. Those teams currently have better records and the tie breakers.

If we are going to earn our way into the playoffs this year, and not hope to back our way in, we have to beat the Chargers period.

ctchiefsfan
12-02-2010, 07:15 PM
I'm not going to argue about which games we need to win and which games we can afford to lose.

Cause I KNOW the answer.

We can't afford to lose ANY more games.

We're 1 game ahead.

Run the table and we win the division. PERIOD.

I've been a Chiefs fan for a long time and so, so, so many years I have seen us start off strong, fade late and back into the playoffs.

And then exit the playoffs QUICKLY.

And seasons like that hurt me more than 2-14 or 4-12 or 8-8.

If we get and stay healthy and win the rest of our games, then we will go into the playoffs on a roll and if we do that we have a decent chance of making the SB.

And if we do that, well, then its just 1 game....and we all know about "any given team on any given Sunday".

So, the truth is, we need to stop worrying about "tie breakers", which games we "must win" and which games we can "afford to lose".

We gotta win 'em all!

And then we've got a real good shot of going to the Super Bowl!

GO CHIEFS!!!!! :chiefs: :chiefs: :chiefs:

Canada
12-02-2010, 09:15 PM
We probably have to beat the Chargers to make the playoffs at all. The last two wildcard spots are most likely going to the 2nd place teams in the AFC North and East. Those teams currently have better records and the tie breakers.

If we are going to earn our way into the playoffs this year, and not hope to back our way in, we have to beat the Chargers period.

We beat Denver and we will be tied with the 2nd place team in the North. Bal and Pit play each other and the loser will be 8-4 with another division loss. Wildcard is no out of the question but I agree with that we should just win out and take the West!!

wilqb16
12-02-2010, 09:24 PM
We beat Denver and we will be tied with the 2nd place team in the North. Bal and Pit play each other and the loser will be 8-4 with another division loss. Wildcard is no out of the question but I agree with that we should just win out and take the West!!

One of the problems that I keep seeing with us and any play-off scenario, is that most tie breakers favor common wins and in conference wins. Our 7-4 record is currently built a lot on a NFC West sweep of the Cardinals, 49ers and Seahawks, as such we probably have to look to be in the 5th or 6th spot by way of a better record, which will be a pretty steep climb...