KC and the QB Problem [Archive] - Kansas City Chiefs Forums

Ryfo18

11-29-2012, 04:18 PM

This a tremendous read by a NFL Draft nut Eric Stoner (@ECStoner on Twitter). It basically supports what I've been trying to say (we need to take a QB round 1).

The summary is he groups quarterbacks into 4 tiers. The top 2 tiers pretty much consist of the best quarterbacks in the league. Tier 3 he describes as "good enough to not get replaced" and tier 4 is the Brady Quinn's of the world.

Of the 13 QBs in the top 2 tiers, 11 of them were first round draft picks. The only two were Drew Brees (1st pick in the 2nd round) and Matt Schaub (3rd round).

The Chiefs, in order to maximize their chances of getting a QBOTF (a tier1/tier2 guy) need to take a QB in the first round.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/42007/349/kc-and-the-qb-problem

Ryfo18

11-29-2012, 04:23 PM

I also came across this exchange between he and another guy I follow. Not saying he's the end all, know all, but I do respect his opinion:

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28/RyFo18/teo.jpg

DISCUSS!

doobs_05

11-29-2012, 06:09 PM

I'm okay with trading down if those QBs don't look like top 5 picks

reded

11-29-2012, 06:35 PM

Just because a man is drafted in the first round does not guarantee him to be a top tier QB. No sense in reaching for what isn't there.

Eydugstr

11-29-2012, 07:26 PM

Just because a man is drafted in the first round does not guarantee him to be a top tier QB. No sense in reaching for what isn't there.

Agreed. They're all risks at some point. We might as well try drafting two qb's. It sucks that we're going to be drafting in a year that does not have any standout QB's.

My hope is that we're able to get the GM/HC situation lined out, and fast. That will go a long in determining what's going to happen in the draft.

Lewis_Chiefs

11-29-2012, 07:28 PM

Geno Smith is a top 10 maybe top 5 talent at a stretch in my opinion, as others have mentioned its a bad year to be needing a quarterback and having the number 1 pick.

As I have said on many occasions (even before he has done well in Seattle) Russel Wilson would have been a great 3rd round pick and a good starting quarterback in last years draft which was deep when it came to qb's.

Ryfo18

11-29-2012, 07:54 PM

Just because a man is drafted in the first round does not guarantee him to be a top tier QB. No sense in reaching for what isn't there.

I think you're missing the point of the article though. It's basically saying you have to get really really really lucky to find a gem at QB outside of the 1st round.

Geno Smith is a top 10 maybe top 5 talent at a stretch in my opinion, as others have mentioned its a bad year to be needing a quarterback and having the number 1 pick.

As I have said on many occasions (even before he has done well in Seattle) Russel Wilson would have been a great 3rd round pick and a good starting quarterback in last years draft which was deep when it came to qb's.

Ugh...we took Stephenson 1 pick before Wilson. As a Wisco and Chiefs fan, this breaks my heart. Don't even get me started.

The good news though is that Stephenson looked very solid at LT Sunday. He gave up 1 QB hit and faced Dumervil and Von Miller all day. I'm very excited for him and am really curious what happens with Albert this offseason.

nigeriannightmare

11-29-2012, 09:17 PM

I don't see how they think te'o is gonna be a failure. He has great speed to keep up with Rbs and has the size to cover tight ends. He is a once in a lfetime player. He's gonna be a Heisman finalist playing ILB. He was a top 15 pick last year stayed for a year and has keyed some of the best stands in the college game. I think it's ludacris to not say he is the best player in college football right now. And at 6 ft 2 in and 255 lbs explain to me how he can't succeed in the NFL.

If smith has a terrific combine then I say go for it but if he continues to drop and is 10 or lower on draft boards then Manti is the choice if we can't trade down.

SI did a spread on him and his personal success out weighs his football success greatly. He lost his grandma and girlfriend within a day of each other, during the season mind you. Mentally tough doesn't even begin to describe this young man.

nigeriannightmare

11-29-2012, 09:19 PM

I think you're missing the point of the article though. It's basically saying you have to get really really really lucky to find a gem at QB outside of the 1st round.

Ugh...we took Stephenson 1 pick before Wilson. As a Wisco and Chiefs fan, this breaks my heart. Don't even get me started.

The good news though is that Stephenson looked very solid at LT Sunday. He gave up 1 QB hit and faced Dumervil and Von Miller all day. I'm very excited for him and am really curious what happens with Albert this offseason.

Yeah the OL looked good Sunday miller has been ripping it up. Stephenson I thought played very very well.

MissingTBone

11-30-2012, 08:17 AM

Exactly, just because you draft a qb in the first doesn't make him a guaranteed success. I'm not arguing that we need a qb, but reaching for another player who shouldn't have been taken that early will hurt us regardless of if it's a qb or not. And who's to say Gino doesn't become our next reach that doesn't pan out??

Lord-Chiefy

11-30-2012, 08:54 AM

Omg so reaching for a qb this year in the first round when non of them qualify will automatically give US top tier elite qb? Lmao

reded

11-30-2012, 09:00 AM

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 09:51 AM

Omg so reaching for a qb this year in the first round when non of them qualify will automatically give US top tier elite qb? Lmao

Exactly what I was getting at. Apparently you missed the point of the article also....

When you are under the assumption that there will be no QBs capable of leading a team coming out of this draft, then I can see why you have your opinion.

I am 100% of the belief that we need to give the best QB available a shot. He'd have to really suck to be worse than the Cassel/Quinn brigade. Whether or not our front office thinks that is Geno, Barkley, Wilson, or someone else is to be seen.

chiefnut

11-30-2012, 09:54 AM

So he does NOT consider tom brady as a top tier QB???
he was drafted 199th , 6th round

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 09:58 AM

So he does NOT consider tom brady as a top tier QB???
he was drafted 199th , 6th round

He focused on years 2001-2010.

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 10:05 AM

I'm trying to look at this as a statistical problem. Past history says that you have to get extremely lucky to get a stud QB outside of the first round. BUT 11 of the 13 best QBs since 2001 have been drafted in the 1st round. A lot of these guys were not the highest touted QB coming out of their respective draft (Big Ben, Cutler, Flacco, Freeman, Rodgers). I would be more than happy with any one of these guys.

Yes, I fully acknowledge we could draft the wrong guy and he could not pan out. But this organization is never going to move forward until it takes a shot at obtaining one of the top QBs in the draft. Remember, this is the same organization that has not had a QB it drafted win a game since Todd Blackledge in 1987 and the same organization that has not won a playoff game in 19 years. Brodie Croyle managed to go 0-10! If everyone here is fine with continuing on as we are, bringing in failed FAs at QB, then I won't try to convince you otherwise that we need to reach out and draft a QB in the 1st round.

To me the chance that we get a QB for this franchise for the next 10-15 years in this draft outweighs the risk of getting a flop. If he flops, then it's more of the same. But it's more of the same if we don't get a QB anyway, so it's a double-edged sword.

chiefnut

11-30-2012, 10:21 AM

in the last 10 years there have neen 34 QBs drafted in the 1st round, 19 are starters of which 5 may be replaced this year so that 14 of 34 or a 41% success rate, wilson and foles are 3rd rounders that are now starting , dalton and kaepernick are 2nd rounders starting, schaub a 3rd rounder and an fyi matt flynn was a 7th and kyle orton a 4th

smith and barkley have a 41% chanc of success being drafted in the first round, i don't think thats worth a number one overall pick.

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 10:25 AM

chiefnut

11-30-2012, 10:26 AM

this could be a year like 2003 with palmer, leftwich, boller and grossman all going in the 1st round or worse 2002 with carr, huntington and ramsey...both pretty lean years for QBs

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 10:31 AM

this could be a year like 2003 with palmer, leftwich, boller and grossman all going in the 1st round or worse 2002 with carr, huntington and ramsey...both pretty lean years for QBs

It could also be like 2004 when Eli, Rivers, Ben came out. Nobody knows. Which is exactly why you have to take that shot. I don't want to be looking back on this in 2016 while the Raiders, Jaguars, and Cardinals all snag franchise QBs and the Chiefs use their first overall pick on a LB.

This is all hypothetical, but in a QB-first league, you have to be willing to take chances when it comes to the QB position.

nigeriannightmare

11-30-2012, 11:46 AM

It could also be like 2004 when Eli, Rivers, Ben came out. Nobody knows. Which is exactly why you have to take that shot. I don't want to be looking back on this in 2016 while the Raiders, Jaguars, and Cardinals all snag franchise QBs and the Chiefs use their first overall pick on a LB.

This is all hypothetical, but in a QB-first league, you have to be willing to take chances when it comes to the QB position.

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you that we need a qb. A case can be made that we draft the best player in the draft number while still being able to draft back up to get a qb we need as I see it there's a high likelihood of good qbs being available.

It just freaking sucks we get the number one pick when there's no one really worthy. Bill polian got the shaft. He got it right one crappy season to secure 10 to 15 years of success. 2 franchise qbs back to back and the dude got fired.

chiefnut

11-30-2012, 11:48 AM

It could also be like 2004 when Eli, Rivers, Ben came out. Nobody knows. Which is exactly why you have to take that shot. I don't want to be looking back on this in 2016 while the Raiders, Jaguars, and Cardinals all snag franchise QBs and the Chiefs use their first overall pick on a LB.

This is all hypothetical, but in a QB-first league, you have to be willing to take chances when it comes to the QB position.

the expectations on manning and rivers were to be franchise QBs, even ben was considered to be a solid starter, not so w/this years crop. no we don't sit on our hands and hope for a QB to fall from the sky. we get a good GM w/a good scouting staff to find us the best QB in late first or early 2nd round while we use our first pick for the best available player to fill another need, CB, DE, ILB etc,

reded

11-30-2012, 12:23 PM

the expectations on manning and rivers were to be franchise QBs, even ben was considered to be a solid starter, not so w/this years crop. no we don't sit on our hands and hope for a QB to fall from the sky. we get a good GM w/a good scouting staff to find us the best QB in late first or early 2nd round while we use our first pick for the best available player to fill another need, CB, DE, ILB etc,

....and there you have it. Perfect answer!

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 12:25 PM

N TX Dave

11-30-2012, 12:36 PM

But then you're saying "don't take the best QB." With the 1st pick in our hands, I don't agree with that.

But if the best QB draft pick is rated to be picked 15-20 spot do you want to grab him with the first and have everyone say with the first picks the Chiefs reached again and drafted QB so and so?

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 12:46 PM

But if the best QB draft pick is rated to be picked 15-20 spot do you want to grab him with the first and have everyone say with the first picks the Chiefs reached again and drafted QB so and so?

Absolutely! I am also of the opinion that Geno Smith and even Matt Barkley can be successful in this league though. With either of them, we get accurate passers with good (Geno w/ more of a cannon) arms. Of course you still have to develop these guys, but either will be a significant upgrade over what we have and ever over what will be available in free agency.

doobs_05

11-30-2012, 12:50 PM

QB can't do s*** when the recievers can't catch a ball or tip in the air for an INT. But if we reach we end up with an awesome QB ...or a Jamarcus Russell

Bike

11-30-2012, 01:01 PM

Absolutely! I am also of the opinion that Geno Smith and even Matt Barkley can be successful in this league though. With either of them, we get accurate passers with good (Geno w/ more of a cannon) arms. Of course you still have to develop these guys, but either will be a significant upgrade over what we have and ever over what will be available in free agency.
Barkley and Smith will not be good qb's in the NFL. Period.

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 01:07 PM

Barkley and Smith will not be good qb's in the NFL. Period.

Ok, well discussion over then.

Bike

11-30-2012, 01:10 PM

Ok, well discussion over then.
Trade down for more picks and get Wilson, Bray, or McClarron - much better alternatives with all the holes we have on this team.

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 01:14 PM

Trade down for more picks and get Wilson, Bray, or McClarron - much better alternatives with all the holes we have on this team.

I just don't see anyone trading up to the #1 spot honestly...

Bike

11-30-2012, 01:32 PM

I just don't see anyone trading up to the #1 spot honestly...
If thats the case, we should take the BPA. We can't afford a Leinart/Young screw-up. We just can't. Just another reason Pioli should be fired 15 minutes after the the Denver game - in the plane. After all - he thought Matt Cassel was was our answer at QB. Pioli is a FOOL.

Ryfo18

11-30-2012, 01:55 PM

If thats the case, we should take the BPA. We can't afford a Leinart/Young screw-up. We just can't. Just another reason Pioli should be fired 15 minutes after the the Denver game - in the plane. After all - he thought Matt Cassel was was our answer at QB. Pioli is a FOOL.

We can't afford to keep having Cassel/Quinn types at QB either. I'm not getting your Leinart/Young comparison at all though. This is just a simple statistical comparison.

Vince Young's college stats:

2003: 84/143 (58.7%), 1155yds (8.1ypa), 6:7 TD:INT --- 135 carries for 998 yards and 11 TDs
2004: 148/250 (59.2%), 1849 yds (7.4ypa), 12:11 TD:INT --- 167 carries for 1079 yards and 14 TDS
2005: 212/325 (65.2%), 3036 yards (9.6ypa), 26:10 TD:INT --- 155 carries for 1050 yards and 12 TDs

Leinart (his rushing stats are withheld b/c they don't really matter)

2003: 255/402 (63.4%), 3556 yards (8.8ypa), 38:9 TD:INT
2004: 269/412 (65.3%), 3322 yards (8.1ypa), 33:6 TD:INT
2005: 283/431 (65.7%), 3815 yards (8.9ypa), 28:8 TD:INT

Geno Smith

2010: 241/372 (64.8%), 2763 yards (7.4 ypa), 24:7 TD:INT --- 106 carries for 217 yards 0 TDs
2011: 346/526 (65.8%), 4385 yards (8.3 ypa), 31:7 TD:INT --- 56 carries for -33 yards and 2TDs
2012: 327/466 (70.2%), 3597 yards (7.7ypa), 37:5 TD:INT ratio -- 59 carries for 150 yards and 2 TDs

Matt Barkley

2009: 211/352 (59.9%), 2735 yards (7.8ypa), 15:14 TD:INT ratio
2010: 236/377 (62.6%), 2791 yards (7.4ypa), 26:12 TD:INT
2011: 308/446 (69.1%), 3528 yards (7.9ypa), 39:7 TD:INT
2012 246/387 (63.6%), 3273 yards (8.5ypa), 36:15 TD:INT

My basic conclusions just looking at this.

1.) Young was pretty much a running quarterback, but did show improvement in the passing area his senior year.

2.) Leinart showed gradual improvement in completion percentage, but was relatively flat everywhere else.

3.) Barkley has had a bad season this year, and never really blows you away.

4.) Geno has improved on his completion percentage and TD:INT ratio each year. He's not a running quarterback though. He's probably the most unique quarterback out of all 4 of these guys. This is the guy I want KC to take.

I just don't get where you are getting these Leinart/Young comparisons...

Bike

11-30-2012, 02:24 PM

We can't afford to keep having Cassel/Quinn types at QB either. I'm not getting your Leinart/Young comparison at all though. This is just a simple statistical comparison.

Vince Young's college stats:

2003: 84/143 (58.7%), 1155yds (8.1ypa), 6:7 TD:INT --- 135 carries for 998 yards and 11 TDs
2004: 148/250 (59.2%), 1849 yds (7.4ypa), 12:11 TD:INT --- 167 carries for 1079 yards and 14 TDS
2005: 212/325 (65.2%), 3036 yards (9.6ypa), 26:10 TD:INT --- 155 carries for 1050 yards and 12 TDs

Leinart (his rushing stats are withheld b/c they don't really matter)

2003: 255/402 (63.4%), 3556 yards (8.8ypa), 38:9 TD:INT
2004: 269/412 (65.3%), 3322 yards (8.1ypa), 33:6 TD:INT
2005: 283/431 (65.7%), 3815 yards (8.9ypa), 28:8 TD:INT

Geno Smith

2010: 241/372 (64.8%), 2763 yards (7.4 ypa), 24:7 TD:INT --- 106 carries for 217 yards 0 TDs
2011: 346/526 (65.8%), 4385 yards (8.3 ypa), 31:7 TD:INT --- 56 carries for -33 yards and 2TDs
2012: 327/466 (70.2%), 3597 yards (7.7ypa), 37:5 TD:INT ratio -- 59 carries for 150 yards and 2 TDs

Matt Barkley

2009: 211/352 (59.9%), 2735 yards (7.8ypa), 15:14 TD:INT ratio
2010: 236/377 (62.6%), 2791 yards (7.4ypa), 26:12 TD:INT
2011: 308/446 (69.1%), 3528 yards (7.9ypa), 39:7 TD:INT
2012 246/387 (63.6%), 3273 yards (8.5ypa), 36:15 TD:INT

My basic conclusions just looking at this.

1.) Young was pretty much a running quarterback, but did show improvement in the passing area his senior year.

2.) Leinart showed gradual improvement in completion percentage, but was relatively flat everywhere else.

3.) Barkley has had a bad season this year, and never really blows you away.

4.) Geno has improved on his completion percentage and TD:INT ratio each year. He's not a running quarterback though. He's probably the most unique quarterback out of all 4 of these guys. This is the guy I want KC to take.

I just don't get where you are getting these Leinart/Young comparisons...
I was trying to point out that they were both top 10 picks - and never did really pan out for the teams that drafted them.

brdempsey69

11-30-2012, 08:11 PM

I'm starting to believe the draft Geno and make him the starter from day 1 mentality. If he sucks and we go 0-16 you try again the next year. If we go 6-10 or 7-9 you still draft a QB next year.

We can afford to be wrong, given the choices there is no clear right. What we can't afford is to not try and then remain status quo.

I'm not sure but are we still leading the AFC in rushing? Even if we're top 3 that says everything we need to know about the NFL being a passing league.

^^This from another thread sums up the Chiefs situation 100% correctly.

You can draft Defensive players in the 1st round until you are blue in the face -- which is what the Chiefs have done, BTW -- but if you don't have a quality QB that can throw the football better than what the Chiefs currently have on their roster, then you can scratch it as far as any post-season success goes.

If Geno Smith finishes the season playing well & plays well in a Bowl game, All-Star game, and shows well at the Combine, then he is a guy that the Chiefs have to try and take.

One thing I'm failing to understand. How can so many Chiefs fans be on board with drafting a Safety -- a position that provides minimal positional value or impact -- at #5 in 2010 under the old CBA and then turn around and say it's not worth taking a chance on a QB at #1 under the new CBA, if they can't trade down a few slots? That is completely illogical.

Lord-Chiefy

11-30-2012, 09:09 PM

Atleast with Barkley out hurt we won't. Be drafting him.

Guru

12-01-2012, 04:15 AM

AussieChiefsFan

12-01-2012, 04:47 AM

http://i.imgur.com/j82j9.png

Chiefster

12-01-2012, 08:52 AM

I don't think ANY team will want to trade up to the #1 slot so we have to go BPA with that pick and then trade back into the first round with our second pick. I'm OK with reaching for Geno Smith but he is the ONLY QB I would be willing to reach for.

Agreed, I would actually be alright with drafting the top rated offensive lineman, although I understand that is seldom, if ever, done. To bad we couldn't have sucked this bad last year so we could have had a shot at Luck or RG3.

chiefnut

12-01-2012, 08:57 AM

we need to win a couple of games to drop 5 spots then we won't have this problem

Chiefster

12-01-2012, 08:59 AM

we need to win a couple of games to drop 5 spots then we won't have this problem

:lol: Yeah Pioli would just screw it up anyway.

N TX Dave

12-01-2012, 09:31 AM

:lol: Yeah Pioli would just screw it up anyway.

I hope it is not Pioli's decesion.

Chiefster

12-01-2012, 04:23 PM

I hope it is not Pioli's decesion.

Me too.

brdempsey69

12-01-2012, 04:48 PM

I hope it is not Pioli's decesion.

Me too.

The Belcher incident is probably the Camel that broke the straw back for a lot within the Chiefs organization. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pioli, Crennel, and a few others hand in their resignations after this season.

Chiefster

12-01-2012, 04:50 PM

N TX Dave

12-01-2012, 05:19 PM

I know if I had seen him kill himself and know that I had been teaching him, I would want out of the situation.

Guru

12-07-2012, 08:32 AM

The Belcher incident is probably the Camel that broke the straw back for a lot within the Chiefs organization. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pioli, Crennel, and a few others hand in their resignations after this season.

Can you imagine driving and walking by the parking spot everyday? I don't care who you are, that is a horrible memory to have.

chiefnut

12-07-2012, 09:04 AM

Can you imagine driving and walking by the parking spot everyday? I don't care who you are, that is a horrible memory to have.

actually i can't, i don't know how you put it out of your mind enuf to do your job. i think it would screw me up pretty good. i give them credit jsut to stick it out after that. another ? is how does this affect Clarks decision at the end of the season....does it soften his stance or make him resolute to clean house

#58ChiefsFan

12-07-2012, 09:35 AM

actually i can't, i don't know how you put it out of your mind enuf to do your job. i think it would screw me up pretty good. i give them credit jsut to stick it out after that. another ? is how does this affect Clarks decision at the end of the season....does it soften his stance or make him resolute to clean house

I don't know why it would affect Clark's decision, it really has nothing to do with the failure that preceded Belcher. The only part I could see as an influence would be the way RAC handled himself during this time, may wish to keep him in some capacity as a mentor?

Chiefster

12-07-2012, 11:01 PM

Can you imagine driving and walking by the parking spot everyday? I don't care who you are, that is a horrible memory to have.

I don't ever want to imagine...

Eydugstr

12-10-2012, 12:59 AM

The Belcher incident is probably the Camel that broke the straw back for a lot within the Chiefs organization. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pioli, Crennel, and a few others hand in their resignations after this season.

Would think so, too. Even if Hunt told Pioli or Crennel they could stay..Not sure they'd do it, given what happened with Belcher and this turd of a season. Think it's just better for Pioli and Crennel to move on and get re-established someplace else.

dbolan

12-10-2012, 12:38 PM

We don't need a round 1 qb. We need a really good qb.

Although, I have to say, Cousins with Washington would have been a good one for the Chiefs.

nigeriannightmare

12-10-2012, 12:50 PM

We don't need a round 1 qb. We need a really good qb.

Although, I have to say, Cousins with Washington would have been a good one for the Chiefs.

And kapernick or russel Wilson. We really screwed the pooch not taking a qb last draft.

swochief

12-15-2012, 04:44 PM

AkChief49

12-15-2012, 05:04 PM

You left out the most successful one. T. Brady i believe was taken in the 5th. But i get what you are saying here. If they dont take one w/ the first pick then they really need to get back into the last first or take one w/ the early second they have. I would even take another of the top qb choices of this year later to have options.
He was taken in the 6th round. I agree we do need to start the search and draft a QB. No more "other" teams' drop offs. Unless they can find us another Len Dawson, draft a QB until you find "the" guy. We need someone that is able to take this team on his shoulders and run with it.
Andrew Luck is going to break a lot of records, RG3 will too, if he stays healthy. Dude takes too many big hits. He's tough, don't get me wrong, he just needs to simmer a bit.
We need a leader that not only practices hard but knows how to play, especially when the chips are down.
When was the last time we were down and you still had faith we would overcome it?
I'd say not since Trent Green(the entire offense was deadly) and certainly from there it was not since Joe Montana.
No more seconds, or hand me downs(like I said earlier, unless it's a Lenny D. type)-draft "the" guy who has "IT".
Draft a guy who raises the game of everyone else on the team.