Alex Smith Contract Statistical Analysis

[jap1]

I came across this article that compares Smith's numbers and age to other QBs who recently signed extensions. Based on their analysis, Smith would get ~15 mil a year.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is what his agent is asking and we are low balling in the 10-12 mil range. I was thinking he would be worth 10-12, so I was surprised to see where he fell out. What are your guys thoughts?

http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research/nfl/contract-forecast-alex-smith-448/

[jap1]

Please forgive the typo in the post title.

[brdempsey69]

Please forgive the typo in the post title.

No problem & I'm going to throw a big curveball out here.

What if after the season the Chiefs put the franchise tag on Alex and then traded him to somebody for maybe a 2nd rounder?

[jap1]

No problem & I'm going to throw a big curveball out here.

What if after the season the Chiefs put the franchise tag on Alex and then traded him to somebody for maybe a 2nd rounder?

I think the franchise tag number would be close to $20mil. At that point why not just sign him long term? Under this plan I am assuming he has a year that looks much more like the last half of the season than the first. I guess if you think he is not that good of a QB, then you would want to sign and trade him. Personally I think he is good, I just don't know if he is $15+mil good, but after reading that article, maybe he is ...

[ctchiefsfan]

And IMO he hasn't yet proven himself. He was great at the end of the season and he was somewhat better than mediocre the first half of the season. If he will take $10-$12 million for a long term deal, then write the paper. If not, then let him play through the season and see how he does this season with this schedule. No QB wants to move every 2-3 years. Alex Smith WANTS to stay in KC. Damned problem is his agent.

[jason1981]

And IMO he hasn't yet proven himself. He was great at the end of the season and he was somewhat better than mediocre the first half of the season. If he will take $10-$12 million for a long term deal, then write the paper. If not, then let him play through the season and see how he does this season with this schedule. No QB wants to move every 2-3 years. Alex Smith WANTS to stay in KC. Damned problem is his agent.

The problem is with this years schedule being so tough if we have a good year he will want even more money. I think he will have good year. My question ks how good lf a year and will he want more next year?

[ctchiefsfan]

The problem is with this years schedule being so tough if we have a good year he will want even more money. I think he will have good year. My question is how good of a year and will he want more next year?

That is the risk in not getting a contract done now. If we go 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 and don't make the playoffs, then we probably get him for a few million per year less. But if we go 10-6, make the playoffs and win a playoff game then Smith's agent is going to want to make Smith one of the 3 best-paid quarterbacks in football. It's a gamble.

[Lineup Dough]

Alex should be the top paid QB in the NFL for how well he manages the game.

[ctchiefsfan]

Alex should be the top paid QB in the NFL for how well he manages the game.

Alex Smith is a real good QB. But he ain't that good.

[Pro_Angler]

Seems to me by the Draft the chiefs aren't trying to win this year. Letting players walk and awefull signings to give Smith help. It's like they don't want him to succeed. They just care about selling some tickets and nothing about championships. Sell the Fri kin team to someone who wants to win instead of it being his piggy bank. We have a golden spoon fed spoiled Bratt for a owner who doesn't have a clue.

[texaschief]

I'm starting to think more and more that Alex Smith is a QB brought in to get us through the re-build phase that the Chiefs are about to go through. Expect a 2 or 3 year deal a la Brett Favre or Mike Vick to allow for the grooming of our own Aaron Rodgers or Nick Foles.

[Lineup Dough]

I'm starting to think more and more that Alex Smith is a QB brought in to get us through the re-build phase that the Chiefs are about to go through. Expect a 2 or 3 year deal a la Brett Favre or Mike Vick to allow for the grooming of our own Aaron Rodgers or Nick Foles.


Do you know that what the Chiefs want matters about 10-15% in negotiations? Alex Smith's ground can ask for at least 4-15 per and say oh, you wont sign him long term ok bye. Then someone else will give him a 3-4 years deal for that money. He will get at last 4/16 per by KC. I;d bet my membership on this site he gets at least that or no extension.

[ctchiefsfan]

The whole situation with Alex Smith is a female dog spealt with a "B". I hate everything about it. There were times last season when he looked.....well.....a little better than average. And then there were times when he looked as if the Manning Brothers should have been doing his laundry for him.

The situation SUCKS! Based on what we have seen, we might have a quarterback who was second only to Montana in the history of Chiefs Quarterbacks. Or we might have nothing more than a better-than-average quarterback. And I for one just don't know which he is.

And the salary cap just makes it tough to decide what to do. Thank God I am not Dorsey.

I'm not from Missouri, but I guess I must have some Missouri blood in me somewhere, 'cause I want Alex Smith to "Show Me" before we make him a top 5 paid quarterback. And for me, Alex Smith didn't show that last year.

I really like Alex Smith. But at this point I am just not convinced he is worth top 5 money.

We need cap space to make sure our quarterback has top quality guys to protect him and has top quality guys to throw to. Without those two things I think Alex is just "pretty good".

All in all, it really sucks that we are having this problem just 1 year after we went 2-14. I mean....lets be real....it's not like Alex Smith led us to 11-5 all by himself.

I want him to finish his career as a Chief. But more importantly I want to see some playoff wins and a Super Bowl win before I take my dirt nap.

I guess I just have to trust Reid and Dorsey on what to do with Alex Smith.

[ctchiefsfan]

I'm starting to think more and more that Alex Smith is a QB brought in to get us through the re-build phase that the Chiefs are about to go through. Expect a 2 or 3 year deal a la Brett Favre or Mike Vick to allow for the grooming of our own Aaron Rodgers or Nick Foles.


I'm starting to think you may just be right. It's one hell of a risk, but....well....maybe....we just might already have the quarterback we need buried somewhere in the depth chart.

[chief31]

Do you know that what the Chiefs want matters about 10-15% in negotiations? Alex Smith's ground can ask for at least 4-15 per and say oh, you wont sign him long term ok bye. Then someone else will give him a 3-4 years deal for that money. He will get at last 4/16 per by KC. I;d bet my membership on this site he gets at least that or no extension.

BAH! We will Franchise him.

[ctchiefsfan]

BAH! We will Franchise him.

True. We can franchise tag him. But that would cost us probably $20 million for the year. The best thing would be to get a 3-5 year deal done. Smith get's his "retirement contract" and we get some stability at quarterback with a very good quarterback. Unless of course Reid is convinced that between Bray and Murray he has "The Guy" that can get us to the Super Bowl.

[Seek]

True. We can franchise tag him. But that would cost us probably $20 million for the year. The best thing would be to get a 3-5 year deal done. Smith get's his "retirement contract" and we get some stability at quarterback with a very good quarterback. Unless of course Reid is convinced that between Bray and Murray he has "The Guy" that can get us to the Super Bowl.

Until either one of thos guys proves they are or are not that guy. I don't see any rush in signing Alex. Now once they get at them in camp, or as the season goes on. The Chiefs will know more about continuing the talks or gambling on letting him go.

[ctchiefsfan]

Until either one of thos guys proves they are or are not that guy. I don't see any rush in signing Alex. Now once they get at them in camp, or as the season goes on. The Chiefs will know more about continuing the talks or gambling on letting him go.

Exactly so! Well said. Hopefully Andy Reid knows some things we don't.

[AkChief49]

Exactly so! Well said. Hopefully Andy Reid knows some things we don't.

I'm going to put money on this:bananen_smilies046:

[ctchiefsfan]

Absolutely! Perhaps I am a complete "homer", but I honestly think Reid knows what he is doing. It will take a little while, but I think he's going to get us to the Super Bowl. Wish he was 40 instead of an old fart like me. We'll probably only have him for at most 10 years. But I think he will be one of the coaches we remember. Some people say he is another Marty Schottenheimer. Maybe so. But right now the Marty years don't look so bad. Now I am going to commit the ultimate sin.......JUST WIN BABY!!! And I think Reid will do exactly that. The Chiefs will once again own the west!

[tornadospotter]

I ask, how impressed you all were with Trent Greens first season as a Chief? Did he get a big contract after that first season? Value of an employee comes after production of more than one season. Do not mistake me, I like what Smith showed last season. Big improvement over what we had as a starter. But time needs to tell, and we have a great arm on the team and drafted a potential.

[Chiefster]

Please forgive the typo in the post title.

All fixed! :smile

[Chiefster]

I think we get a deal done; perhaps later rather than sooner. I just feel like we have given up way too much not to; of course an argument could be made that is the reason we shouldn't give him more money. Personally, I would like to see the deal get done.

[jap1]

All fixed! :smile
Thanks! I'm a grammar/spelling nazi, so it pained me everytime I saw that typo.

[ctchiefsfan]

I ask, how impressed you all were with Trent Greens first season as a Chief? Did he get a big contract after that first season? Value of an employee comes after production of more than one season. Do not mistake me, I like what Smith showed last season. Big improvement over what we had as a starter. But time needs to tell, and we have a great arm on the team and drafted a potential.

Your point is one I have tried to make. We've only had Smith for 1 year. And while he showed some serious flashes of brilliance in the latter half of the season, the first half was....to quote many......that of a competent game manager. The second half was brilliant....for the most part. I just don't see how last season justifies a long term contract for $15 million per year or more with a big guarantee. I'd be happy to see us give Alex a 5 year contract for $75 million if the guaranteed money was $15 million or less. Something our Chiefs could get out of in a year or two with no major cap repercussions if that seemed the right thing to do. But based on last year's performance, giving Alex Smith a 5 year $85 million or more contract with $35 or more million guaranteed would be the height of folly.

I could live with the kind of payday PM got.....IF the contract had the many and varied escape clauses that PM's contract has.

I think Alex Smith has the ability under Reid's system to be a top 5 quarterback. But I'm not OK with giving him top 5 quarterback money based on what I think unless the guaranteed money is low.

Now....If we don't get an extension done and this season he looks as good or better than he did in the last half of last season then it's time to open the checkbook wide, because it means we have a legitimate top 5 quarterback who should have 5-8 more years left in him.

I LIKE Alex Smith. I like everything about him. Good man. Hard worker. Lots of heart. TEAM PLAYER. But before we give him a top 5 type contract I want to be DAMNED CERTAIN he is a legitimate top 5 quarterback. And he hasn't proved that yet. At least not in my opinion.

[Frankenchief]

Alex Smith WANTS to stay in KC. Damned problem is his agent.

And to think he was a Chiefs player himself!

[Frankenchief]

Alex will never be this good under a head coach not named Harbaugh or Reid. He knows it and his agent knows it. I think he will get a 13 or 14 mill/year contract and everything will be right again.

[jason1981]

There is no need to rush it. His salary is low right now amd even if we did extend him his salary wouldnt go up. They would give him signing bonus to male up for it. But either way there is no rush to do it.

[ctchiefsfan]

And to think he was a Chiefs player himself!


I know. But then his agent's name rhymes with condom and all those do is screw up what would otherwise be a good time.

[Frankenchief]

I know. But then his agent's name rhymes with condom and all those do is screw up what would otherwise be a good time.

Heh,... you read my thoughts. :D

[ctchiefsfan]

Alex Smith WANTS to stay in KC. Damned problem is his agent.


And to think he was a Chiefs player himself!


I know. But then his agent's name rhymes with condom and all those do is screw up what would otherwise be a good time.


Heh,... you read my thoughts. :D

I try at all times to speak the truth and call them like I see them. But y'know....this condom guy is making HUGE money as an agent. And he'd have been NOTHING if not for his time as a Chief. He should damned well be cutting our Chiefs a bit of a "Hometown Discount". What really SHAMES me is that this POS bloodsucker is from Ct. Here I am...a Ct Chiefs Fan....and this rotten SOB is hurting my Chiefs.

I think the NFL should be boycotting agents. "If you have an agent we won't employ you". NFL players are college graduates. They should be able to negotiate their pay without an agent. I don't have a college degree and I've negotiated some pretty good salaries over the years. No agents, no union....just dumbash me stating what I felt my services were worth. No agents would mean more money for the player and more salary cap room for the team. It's a WIN-WIN! I'm really starting to hate this condom guy.

[chief31]

I try at all times to speak the truth and call them like I see them. But y'know....this condom guy is making HUGE money as an agent. And he'd have been NOTHING if not for his time as a Chief. He should damned well be cutting our Chiefs a bit of a "Hometown Discount". What really SHAMES me is that this POS bloodsucker is from Ct. Here I am...a Ct Chiefs Fan....and this rotten SOB is hurting my Chiefs.

I think the NFL should be boycotting agents. "If you have an agent we won't employ you". NFL players are college graduates. They should be able to negotiate their pay without an agent. I don't have a college degree and I've negotiated some pretty good salaries over the years. No agents, no union....just dumbash me stating what I felt my services were worth. No agents would mean more money for the player and more salary cap room for the team. It's a WIN-WIN! I'm really starting to hate this condom guy.

He's doing his job. He doesn't owe The Chiefs any discount on some other guy's contract, nor anything else.

No agents would mean less money for the players. I mean, you could use your individual anecdotal story, and others like it to make a case. But the entire history of life on planet Earth is against you here.

[Seek]

I try at all times to speak the truth and call them like I see them. But y'know....this condom guy is making HUGE money as an agent. And he'd have been NOTHING if not for his time as a Chief. He should damned well be cutting our Chiefs a bit of a "Hometown Discount". What really SHAMES me is that this POS bloodsucker is from Ct. Here I am...a Ct Chiefs Fan....and this rotten SOB is hurting my Chiefs.

I think the NFL should be boycotting agents. "If you have an agent we won't employ you". NFL players are college graduates. They should be able to negotiate their pay without an agent. I don't have a college degree and I've negotiated some pretty good salaries over the years. No agents, no union....just dumbash me stating what I felt my services were worth. No agents would mean more money for the player and more salary cap room for the team. It's a WIN-WIN! I'm really starting to hate this condom guy.

Condon is one of the most respected agent in the league and usually does not trying to playing cat and mouse games with the Chiefs. He loves KC and has it made it his home and if anything helps the Chiefs by promoting them because of his ties instead of persuading people to stay away. He had some rocky times with Carl but that was Carl. Fact of the matter, as a Chiefs fan. I am offended that you are referring to him as a Condom and acting like he is the bad guy here. It is not like he the MLB aget Borris who does play games with teams.

He is looking out for the best interest for his clients . There is NO Home town discount for Alex. He was not born and raised a Chiefs fan. If anything he is a Chargers, Niners or Raiders fan since he grew in San Diego. So why would you think Alex would give the Chiefs a discount instead of getting a contract similar to Jay Cutler and Tony Romo. I am sure Alex wants to stay in Kc, but why should he take money from his family.

Why do you think trade talks of Brandon Flowers are up. Brandon is reluctant to restructure his contract because he will get paid regardless and would rather get a new contract on the market while still getting paid by the Chiefs. He has no loyalty here. Not a Condon Client.

Just wait until Eric Berry hits the discussions. Not a Condon Client.

[jap1]

So Colin Kaepernick was extended by the Fortywhiners ... 6 yrs, 100+mil. This is definitely not going to make our negotiations any easier. I can see Smith's agent saying "look, Smith has had a statistically better past 2 or 3 years than Kaepernick, he should get at least as much as Kaepernick."

[ctchiefsfan]

As much as I like Alex Smith, I just don't see how anyone can suggest that his performance as a Chief so far justifies making him a top 5 paid quarterback. His performance last year for the first half of the season was decent to good. The second half of the season he was good to very good. This year he is going to likely face better opposing teams and he's going to face those teams with a team that has lost several starters. If with this tougher schedule he still gets us to the playoff and wins a playoff game then I will be the first person to say..."PAY THE MAN!" but I just don't see that his performance last year justifies paying him top 5 quarterback money.

No doubt in my mind that he is worth more than he got paid last year and I think he deserves an extension and a raise. But I just don't see any justification based on his performance last year for paying him $18 to $20 million. But it's all a gamble. If we don't get him signed to an extension now and next year he get's us past the first round of the playoffs then he'll be at the end of his contract and he'll be looking for more than $20 million.

It's situations like this that make me very glad I am not an NFL GM.

[ctchiefsfan]

I am offended that you are referring to him as a Condom and acting like he is the bad guy here.

It was not my intention to offend you. The only person on this board I have ever wanted to deliberately offend were MMO/MMH and a few trolls from other teams. So I will discontinue the use of the word.

[ctchiefsfan]

No agents would mean less money for the players.

On this issue I stand corrected. I was under the mistaken impression that agents for NFL players acted in a way similar to the publishing industry where agents often take up to 50% of the advance on a book. Having done a little research I see that that is not the case and that the NFL has a cap on the percentage a player's agent can get. So at least in the case of NFL sports agents you are 100% correct and I was wrong.

[chief31]

On this issue I stand corrected. I was under the mistaken impression that agents for NFL players acted in a way similar to the publishing industry where agents often take up to 50% of the advance on a book. Having done a little research I see that that is not the case and that the NFL has a cap on the percentage a player's agent can get. So at least in the case of NFL sports agents you are 100% correct and I was wrong.

And that's why I love this guy.

The willingness to admit a mistake is a rare trait.

One day, I expect, I will be wrong, and have to admit it. :lol:

[Seek]

It was not my intention to offend you. The only person on this board I have ever wanted to deliberately offend were MMO/MMH and a few trolls from other teams. So I will discontinue the use of the word.

The word is fine. I just didn't see the connection to Tom Condon. To my knowledge he is on the Chiefs side, compared to ther agents. If you knew something different that I didn't know, it would have been nice to discuss, but your comments appeared to be at Agent in general and I just wanted to stand up for one of the good guys. He represented some good players for us. like Tony G

[Frankenchief]

So Colin Kaepernick was extended by the Fortywhiners ... 6 yrs, 100+mil. This is definitely not going to make our negotiations any easier. I can see Smith's agent saying "look, Smith has had a statistically better past 2 or 3 years than Kaepernick, he should get at least as much as Kaepernick."
If stats are that crucial in negotiations so should be appearances in conference championships and Super Bowls. There, Kaep edges Smith, fair or not.

[Ryfo18]

Kaepernick's deal would be perfect for Alex. He's guaranteed $61M ONLY IF HE'S injured. They can cut him before April 1st of any season and not owe him a dime (though he would still be a cap hit).

[Frankenchief]

The word is fine. I just didn't see the connection to Tom Condon. To my knowledge he is on the Chiefs side, compared to ther agents. If you knew something different that I didn't know, it would have been nice to discuss, but your comments appeared to be at Agent in general and I just wanted to stand up for one of the good guys. He represented some good players for us. like Tony G
I'm afraid I am to blame for triggering this by bringing up Condon having been a Chiefs player himself, tongue-in-cheek as it was.

[jap1]

Kaepernick's deal would be perfect for Alex. He's guaranteed $61M ONLY IF HE'S injured. They can cut him before April 1st of any season and not owe him a dime (though he would still be a cap hit).

Yeah, i saw the finalized details, and it is VERY team friendly, even though it is on the surface 6/$126, they can cut ties whenever with him without hamstringing the team. I also like that he loses bonus money if he doesn't get first team all pro or to the superbowl. That's a very incentive laden contract that will keep a player fighting to prove their worth.

[ctchiefsfan]

The word is fine. I just didn't see the connection to Tom Condon. To my knowledge he is on the Chiefs side, compared to ther agents. If you knew something different that I didn't know, it would have been nice to discuss, but your comments appeared to be at Agent in general and I just wanted to stand up for one of the good guys. He represented some good players for us. like Tony G

I've no personal knowledge of him, only what I've read on the net. And we all know about what we read on the net. It can range from gold plated truth to absolute nonsense and everywhere in between. What I've read is that he can be a very tough person to deal with. Perhaps the toughest agent in the NFL. Which of course is part of his job. But I really hate the idea of us having to deal with someone like that over a position as important as QB at a time when we have cap problems and several big contract negotiations coming up. In short, I violently dislike anybody that I feel may be doing something that is going to hurt our Chiefs. Yes....Alex Smith deserves a big raise. But--at this point--I just don't see that he has shown that he is worthy of top 5 QB type money and I don't think Condon should be holding out for that kind of money when Alex simply hasn't clearly shown that he is worth it.

As to the use of the word condom in the context I used....it offended you so I won't do it any more but I want you to know that while it was in part meant in a derogatory fashion it was also meant to be a somewhat humorous play on words. If all I intended to do was rip into Condon there are certainly lots of other ways I could have done it that would have been far nastier while still keeping within the board's rules. Instead I tried to take a slap at him by making a play on his name that I thought some here might find humorous. But in at least one case it went over like a lead balloon and offended someone so I won't use it in that context anymore because with the exception of the very occasional troll there is no one here that I would want to offend.

[ctchiefsfan]

I'm afraid I am to blame for triggering this by bringing up Condon having been a Chiefs player himself, tongue-in-cheek as it was.

Not your fault at all. I'm pretty sure I was taking some swats at Condon in another thread before you brought up his being a former Chief. Besides....I apologized for my play on his name and hopefully any that were offended by it have forgiven me and moved on. I don't like Condon because I feel he is hurting our Chiefs. Anybody that I feel is hurting our Chiefs I will dislike. And for me that has been true since the late '60s. It ain't ever going to change.

[Seek]

I've no personal knowledge of him, only what I've read on the net. And we all know about what we read on the net. It can range from gold plated truth to absolute nonsense and everywhere in between. What I've read is that he can be a very tough person to deal with. Perhaps the toughest agent in the NFL. Which of course is part of his job. But I really hate the idea of us having to deal with someone like that over a position as important as QB at a time when we have cap problems and several big contract negotiations coming up. In short, I violently dislike anybody that I feel may be doing something that is going to hurt our Chiefs. Yes....Alex Smith deserves a big raise. But--at this point--I just don't see that he has shown that he is worthy of top 5 QB type money and I don't think Condon should be holding out for that kind of money when Alex simply hasn't clearly shown that he is worth it.

As to the use of the word condom in the context I used....it offended you so I won't do it any more but I want you to know that while it was in part meant in a derogatory fashion it was also meant to be a somewhat humorous play on words. If all I intended to do was rip into Condon there are certainly lots of other ways I could have done it that would have been far nastier while still keeping within the board's rules. Instead I tried to take a slap at him by making a play on his name that I thought some here might find humorous. But in at least one case it went over like a lead balloon and offended someone so I won't use it in that context anymore because with the exception of the very occasional troll there is no one here that I would want to offend.

offended is probably not the correct term. You did not offend me personally in any way. I guess a little dissapointed in the desore to name call. Please don't worry another second about it. He very well could deserve the name as he is a good agent but to my knowledge has a good business relationship with the Chiefs.

[ctchiefsfan]

Thank you.

[tornadospotter]

Why would we pay a player any more than what they signed for, I do not believe, correct me if I am wrong, that we owe anything to a player yet that has not reached a end of contract. I wish I could restructure or change my salary at a end of a good season, but for now I am glad to be employed, So to much whining about a one season show, give us more.

[chief31]

Why would we pay a player any more than what they signed for, I do not believe, correct me if I am wrong, that we owe anything to a player yet that has not reached a end of contract. I wish I could restructure or change my salary at a end of a good season, but for now I am glad to be employed, So to much whining about a one season show, give us more.

If you wouldn't try to get a pay raise.....

You would. Who wouldn't?

If you think you did well enough to earn a pay raise, you would go to your boss and have a discussion about it.

[Ryfo18]

Why would we pay a player any more than what they signed for, I do not believe, correct me if I am wrong, that we owe anything to a player yet that has not reached a end of contract. I wish I could restructure or change my salary at a end of a good season, but for now I am glad to be employed, So to much whining about a one season show, give us more.

If you're going to argue that, then you also have to argue that teams shouldn't be able to cut players who are under contract.