Alex Smith 2016

[ctchiefsfan]

Somewhere today I read a prediction that this season Alex would have just over 4,000 yards passing and just over 400 yards rushing. For a total of about 4,450 total yards. Last year his yards were 3,486 passing, 498 rushing, 3,984 total. So the prediction was for an increase in total yards of about 10% or about 29 yards per game (based on Alex playing all 16 games).

Everybody knows I like Alex and think he is much better than he gets credit for, but my first reaction was..."Alex Smith...almost 4,500 total yards in a season? NO WAY!" But I figured I had better check some stats.

In 2012 (10 games, last year with the 9ers) he had an average of 186.9 combined yards per game. In 2013 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249.5 yards per game. An increase of 62.6 yards combined per game. And increase of OVER 30%. In 2014 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 234.6 combined yards per game. A decrease of 14.9 combined yards per game. 7%. In 2015 (16 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249 yards per game. He was basically back to his 2013 averages.

So what is my conclusion? Roughly 250 combined yards per game is basically the Alex Smith "normal" with the Chiefs right now. So the prediction of 281.2 combined yards per game (16 game season--12.5% increase--is a STRETCH).

BUT....Here is the thing in both 2013 and 2015 he had over 400 yards rushing (431 and 498 respectively) but in 2014 he only had 254 yards rushing. And that accounted for most of his decline from 2013. His 2015 passing was 217.9 p/g, 2014 was 217.7 and 2013 was 220.9. So we shouldn't expect a huge increase in passing yards per game unless Reid completely abandons the run. And I think 500 Y/P/G rushing is probably close to his cap.

So IMO it all comes down to how much can the passing game improve? And most of that will be on the receivers and tight ends.

All in all I have a hard time seeing Alex going much over 260 combined yards per game for a total of maybe 4,160 based on a 16 game season. I think that is about his cap barring us having the best O-Line in the NFL.

What do y'all think?

[Chiefs4life24]

Given how good our line is this year and our 3 backs were gonna run a lot I bet you

[Eydugstr]

Somewhere today I read a prediction that this season Alex would have just over 4,000 yards passing and just over 400 yards rushing. For a total of about 4,450 total yards. Last year his yards were 3,486 passing, 498 rushing, 3,984 total. So the prediction was for an increase in total yards of about 10% or about 29 yards per game (based on Alex playing all 16 games).

Everybody knows I like Alex and think he is much better than he gets credit for, but my first reaction was..."Alex Smith...almost 4,500 total yards in a season? NO WAY!" But I figured I had better check some stats.

In 2012 (10 games, last year with the 9ers) he had an average of 186.9 combined yards per game. In 2013 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249.5 yards per game. An increase of 62.6 yards combined per game. And increase of OVER 30%. In 2014 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 234.6 combined yards per game. A decrease of 14.9 combined yards per game. 7%. In 2015 (16 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249 yards per game. He was basically back to his 2013 averages.

So what is my conclusion? Roughly 250 combined yards per game is basically the Alex Smith "normal" with the Chiefs right now. So the prediction of 281.2 combined yards per game (16 game season--12.5% increase--is a STRETCH).

BUT....Here is the thing in both 2013 and 2015 he had over 400 yards rushing (431 and 498 respectively) but in 2014 he only had 254 yards rushing. And that accounted for most of his decline from 2013. His 2015 passing was 217.9 p/g, 2014 was 217.7 and 2013 was 220.9. So we shouldn't expect a huge increase in passing yards per game unless Reid completely abandons the run. And I think 500 Y/P/G rushing is probably close to his cap.

So IMO it all comes down to how much can the passing game improve? And most of that will be on the receivers and tight ends.

All in all I have a hard time seeing Alex going much over 260 combined yards per game for a total of maybe 4,160 based on a 16 game season. I think that is about his cap barring us having the best O-Line in the NFL.

What do y'all think?

Neat post.

IMHO If (and that's a big IF ) the goal is to get 4,000 yards passing out of Alex Smith, the key lies with our #2 and #3 WR's. Outside of Maclin we have no serious consistent threat at WR that scares other teams. If Conley or Wilson develop into every down threats, and Kelce continues to improve, watch out.

The other thing I can see Reid focusing on is more passing to RB's, and being really fanatic about cutting down on the drops. Our RB corps is really underrated IMO and some aggressive playcalling in that direction might really wake things up.

[JPPT1974]

Yeah as really he not just can pass but can run as well.

[matthewschiefs]

I was thinking about starting a thread on him myself.

This is a big year for Alex Smith. IMO this is put up or shut up time.

We have great depth at RB. A pretty damn good TE

The O line last year by the end of the year was doing a pretty nice job.

And for the first time in a long time we have a WR group that might not be a top level group but there's more then 1 guy that a defense is going to have to respect.

Since I've been on this site I have defended the QB whoever it was. And I stand by that now. The only thing I have to point out in that regard is that the number 1 WR we were giving QBs now can't find a job. Many wondered what he would do outside of KC well we found out 5 Catches 53 yards. So I still think that having poor play at the QB spot wasn't what doomed the chiefs for many a year it was poor play and talent across the board on offense that doomed this team. And I think the facts support that opinion.

But that was then this is now. And I see talent around the QB. It's up to Alex Smith to get the job done as the QB of this team. I look forward to seeing him get the job done. If not then well I won't be so quick to defend him this time around. He has far more around him then any QB we've had in a long time. GET THE JOB DONE ALEX. IT'S TIME I WANT A FREAKING RING

[ctchiefsfan]

I was thinking about starting a thread on him myself.

This is a big year for Alex Smith. IMO this is put up or shut up time.

We have great depth at RB. A pretty damn good TE

The O line last year by the end of the year was doing a pretty nice job.

And for the first time in a long time we have a WR group that might not be a top level group but there's more then 1 guy that a defense is going to have to respect.

Since I've been on this site I have defended the QB whoever it was. And I stand by that now. The only thing I have to point out in that regard is that the number 1 WR we were giving QBs now can't find a job. Many wondered what he would do outside of KC well we found out 5 Catches 53 yards. So I still think that having poor play at the QB spot wasn't what doomed the chiefs for many a year it was poor play and talent across the board on offense that doomed this team. And I think the facts support that opinion.

But that was then this is now. And I see talent around the QB. It's up to Alex Smith to get the job done as the QB of this team. I look forward to seeing him get the job done. If not then well I won't be so quick to defend him this time around. He has far more around him then any QB we've had in a long time. GET THE JOB DONE ALEX. IT'S TIME I WANT A FREAKING RING

I mostly agree. Alex came up with just shy of 4,000 combined yards last season and I believe he should be able to push that to close to 4,200. But I think that is about as much as we can ever get from him. As for a Super Bowl win...I can't lay that completely on Alex. A Super Bowl is not won by one man. I takes a team. IMO if Alex gets close to 4,200 combined yards for the season he will have done his part and the rest will be up to the team.

[Chiefs4life24]

Tom Brady won a couple super bowls by himself so it can be done

[ctchiefsfan]

Tom Brady won a couple super bowls by himself so it can be done

Perhaps. But Alex is not Tom Brady.

[Justin5772002]

Given how good our line is this year and our 3 backs were gonna run a lot I bet you. I think you're forgetting who our play caller is still. I don't think we run the ball any more than we have in the past. Andy Reid won't change who he is based on who we have

[jason1981]

. I think you're forgetting who our play caller is still. I don't think we run the ball any more than we have in the past. Andy Reid won't change who he is based on who we have

Reid will cost us atleast 2 games a year with his play calling.

[matthewschiefs]

I mostly agree. Alex came up with just shy of 4,000 combined yards last season and I believe he should be able to push that to close to 4,200. But I think that is about as much as we can ever get from him. As for a Super Bowl win...I can't lay that completely on Alex. A Super Bowl is not won by one man. I takes a team. IMO if Alex gets close to 4,200 combined yards for the season he will have done his part and the rest will be up to the team.

I don't mean to imply the super bowl is on Alex alone.

Just that the lack of talent is not an excuse for Alex now. Because he does have talent around him

The days of Aj jenkins, Junior hemmingway and Frankie Hammond Jr in the starting lineup are over now thankfully

[jason1981]

Yes thank god no more bottom of the talent pool of wr's. Just hope charles isnt past his prime wkth his injuries to take advantage of the defense not being able to stack the box against him.

[Chiefs4life24]

Charles will do good things this year but he is changed gone are the days where he used to destroy people

[ctchiefsfan]

I don't mean to imply the super bowl is on Alex alone.

Just that the lack of talent is not an excuse for Alex now. Because he does have talent around him

The days of Aj jenkins, Junior hemmingway and Frankie Hammond Jr in the starting lineup are over now thankfully

Agreed. He doesn't have the very best supporting cast of receivers but it is a whole lot better than it was when he got here in 2013. If the O-line proves solid he should have a very good year. Up to now his 3 best seasons in his career have all come as a Chief. 2015 = #1. 2013 = #2. 2014 = #3. I'm expecting 2016 to become his new best ever. I think that anything less than very close to 4,200 combined passing and rushing yards will be a disappointment. Also hoping he cuts down on the number of sacks taken thanks to a more solid O-line.

[ctchiefsfan]

Just hope charles isnt past his prime wkth his injuries to take advantage of the defense not being able to stack the box against him.

Just so. But if JC is not his old self we still have West and Ware. As an aside, I expect this will be JC's last year as a Chief. We are going to have to free up a lot of Cap space next year to sign Poe and some others. I also expect this will be Berry's last year as a Chief.

[matthewschiefs]

Yes thank god no more bottom of the talent pool of wr's. Just hope charles isnt past his prime wkth his injuries to take advantage of the defense not being able to stack the box against him.

With West and Ware we won't have to rely on Charles as much.

The Chiefs FINALLY have some depth on offense.

[milkman]

Tom Brady won a couple super bowls by himself so it can be done

No, Tom Brady never won any Super Bowls by himself.

[milkman]

As for the talent at receiver, outside of Maclin, and Kelce at TE, we have no proven weapons.

We have a few candidates that we hope step up to become weapons to take some of the pressure off of those two to perform, but hope is all that there is at this point.

[jason1981]

As for the talent at receiver, outside of Maclin, and Kelce at TE, we have no proven weapons.

We have a few candidates that we hope step up to become weapons to take some of the pressure off of those two to perform, but hope is all that there is at this point.

That moght be so but the talent and potential are better tuay what we had as the #2 and 3 wr is concerned. Im really hoping conley steps up.

[Chiefs4life24]

From Maclin to #6 we are loaded with awesome talent even the new Robinson you guys are gonna like him, I want to keep 7 receivers, hopefully we can fit Mitch Mathews on the 53 cause he will be taken if he is on the practice squad

[milkman]

That moght be so but the talent and potential are better tuay what we had as the #2 and 3 wr is concerned. Im really hoping conley steps up.

Potential, yes.

But the fact remains, until these guys step up and prove it, they are nothing more than potential and hope.

[milkman]

From Maclin to #6 we are loaded with awesome talent even the new Robinson you guys are gonna like him, I want to keep 7 receivers, hopefully we can fit Mitch Mathews on the 53 cause he will be taken if he is on the practice squad

Listen, there are some guys in the mix that I have a lot of hope for.

Conley stepping up and becoming a reliable #2 and weapon in the intermediate and deep passing game.
Streater returning to the form he displayed prior to injury a couple years ago.
DaMarcus Robinson becoming a threat.

But we are not talking about proven commodities.

We are talking about hope.

[Chiefs4life24]

I don't see hope I see what some can't these guys are gonna be rockstars

[Chiefs4life24]

It's wrong to say you have potential and hope for these guys, I can see it written on the wall, these guys are gonna be awesome. You don't have to be proven to make an impact that is a fact

[jason1981]

It's wrong to say you have potential and hope for these guys, I can see it written on the wall, these guys are gonna be awesome. You don't have to be proven to make an impact that is a fact

Um you have no clue if these wr will ever do any good. Like milkman said until they proven themselves their still question marks. You cant say honestly you know thy will and its all written on the wall. So much more talented athletes have failed and busted before so you can never know for sure. We can only hope they live up to thir potential. You never know who will have an injury or not. You can make an educated guess but its still a guess.

[milkman]

It's wrong to say you have potential and hope for these guys, I can see it written on the wall, these guys are gonna be awesome. You don't have to be proven to make an impact that is a fact

No, that is not a fact.

The fact is there are hundreds, if not thousands, of players with potential that never touched that potential.
That's why there are far more busts on the streets than in Canton.

The players that lived up to that potential are the ones that made impacts.

[Chiefs4life24]

Robinson, Russell, White, Murray, Jones, Mathew's etc will all live up to their potential. Especially Jones he is an absolute monster. He is Poe 2.0 just a little better than Poe

[ctchiefsfan]

but hope is all that there is at this point.

Actually, we do have a bit more than just hope. We have Andy Reid who has a fairly well proven talent for getting the most out of the people on his roster. Yes, Reid has his faults but getting the best from his people is one of the things he does well.

On the subject of unproven players and hope. Hope...and your coach....are really all you have when you bring in a new player. That's true whether discussing a rookie or a free agent star you bring in. The NFL is littered with guys that were stars with a team and then went to another team and did next to nothing. Bowe and a few of our recent free agency losses come to mind. So whether a new person on a team is a rookie or a player with a well-proven track record there are no guarantees of success. But with Reid the chances of success are better than the average.

[jason1981]

Well with all this crazy hit going on and black lives matter should be labeled a terrorist group since all they is promote all their propaganda and riots which has lead to cops being killked. I think we need skme football to take our minds off all this crazy **** and dont even get me started on hillary who should be in jail. But seriously all lives matter and saying black lives matter is a racist statement in itself and hypocritical. Thats like saying white lives matter. We would be crushed if we said that. Cops are human just like us. Sometimes they break under pressure and make mistakes and maybe even incompetent but that doesnt make the racists. This jesse jackson dude should be in jail. He thrives on making drama and causing crap. Not saying theres not racist cops but do you think they would be so racist to kill in cold blood just cuz they dont like the color of your skin. Being racists and killing someone cuz their color of skin isnt even the same thing. Its a whooe different level. That would be like radical racism. But cops can be stuck up and jerks and all but that doesnt make them racist. And they just want to do their job and go home just like all of us. If they think they coud be better cops then they should be a cop and its not always thay easy when you always have constant danger around you. I spent a year in iraq and it sucks worrying every day non stop if something going to happen and they do it their whole carreer. So its not always so simple of making the right call. Cops panic just like humans. Their not perfect. Theres a split decision they have to make what if the hesitate and their partner gets shot or killed cuz he hesitated. Then he has to live with that. So its a thin line they have to live with. And i dont want the cops to hesitate and then costs someones life cuz they hesitate. 1st things cops do is make every situation safe. If you respect and comply what the officer says then you put tue cops at ease and they wont be so nervous or panicky. But if you dont listen and out the cop on edge he might take your actions the wrong way and bad things happen and thats alll on the civilian for not complying to the offficer. Respect the cops and their there for you own protection. There might be some bad apples in law enforcement but you cant punish all for tue actions of a few. But by in large mor3 cops habe been killed by black men that cops than blacks killed by cops. The biggest of them is black on black crime. Most black deaths have been by blacks. Its this black lives matter and this main stream media making sll this crap get so far out of hand. We just jump to conclusions without waiting for sll the facts. Anyways. I had to get this off my chest. Im so ready for football. Maybe football will unite everyone.

[ctchiefsfan]

Well said.

[milkman]

Robinson, Russell, White, Murray, Jones, Mathew's etc will all live up to their potential. Especially Jones he is an absolute monster. He is Poe 2.0 just a little better than Poe


I am not going to debate this with you since you clearly have no concept of the difference between expectation and hope.

[milkman]

Actually, we do have a bit more than just hope. We have Andy Reid who has a fairly well proven talent for getting the most out of the people on his roster. Yes, Reid has his faults but getting the best from his people is one of the things he does well.

On the subject of unproven players and hope. Hope...and your coach....are really all you have when you bring in a new player. That's true whether discussing a rookie or a free agent star you bring in. The NFL is littered with guys that were stars with a team and then went to another team and did next to nothing. Bowe and a few of our recent free agency losses come to mind. So whether a new person on a team is a rookie or a player with a well-proven track record there are no guarantees of success. But with Reid the chances of success are better than the average.

Whether or not Reid is a difference maker in the development of potential, an entirely different subject of debate, the fact remains that these players are still just potential.

[milkman]

Oh, and Chris Jones is not a NT.

He will probably get some snaps on the nose in situational packages, but in the base defense, he is a DE.

[Chiefs4life24]

Oh and you don't have to insult me either, I don't want or need that crap here

[Chiefs4life24]

Oh and you don't have to insult me either, I don't want or need that crap here

[ctchiefsfan]

Whether or not Reid is a difference maker in the development of potential, an entirely different subject of debate, the fact remains that these players are still just potential.

Of course. Every player who is new to a team is hope or potential or whatever you prefer to call it. Rookie or Free Agent same-same. But with Reid as coach the odds are a bit better than they are with many other coaches.

The fact that a player has had success in college or on another team just affects the odds of a player being effective on your team. Reid also affects those odds. No matter how you slice it, every guy that goes to a new team or from college to the NFL is a gamble. Some are more of a gamble than others, but they are all gambles. Gambling is about studying the odds, studying the price of getting into the game and knowing what the upside, downside and mid-side is and then deciding if the risk is worth the price of paying to sit at the table.

Grubbs was a gamble that failed. West and Ware are examples of gambles that paid off. Plenty of examples both ways. But with Reid as a head coach you automatically have bit of an edge over many teams that might be considering the same gamble--especially with the younger players.

I'm not arguing with you, just saying that Reid gives us a bit of an edge on the odds over most teams.

[ctchiefsfan]

Let's not have anybody insult anybody here. We are after all just fans...not GMs or coaches. If any of us knew half as much as we wish we did then we would be coaches or GMs.

[Chiefs4life24]

As far as Charles goes, i would like to see us draft Christian Mcaffrey next season

[milkman]

Let's not have anybody insult anybody here. We are after all just fans...not GMs or coaches. If any of us knew half as much as we wish we did then we would be coaches or GMs.

Not trying to insult.
Simply an observation, and there are times when I wish I were still that naive.

[Chiefs4life24]

I am not Naive

[ctchiefsfan]

Chiefs4life24....milkman....Guys c'mon....let's not make his personal. I know enough about both of you to know that neither of you is a troll. You are BOTH good Chiefs fans. Opinions are like ashholes....we all have one. But will you both please save the animosity for the donks and raiders? Lets have fun here instead of fights.

[jason1981]

To milkma s defense chiefs4life24 is a bit nieve to think everytbing he said about he knows everyone is going to bust out and guarantee they will reach there potential this year is a large nieve way of thinking. Theres no way he can know that for sure let alone guarantee it. Whej you say thst crap that makes me value your opinion a lil less and hsrd to take anyone serious when theres no way to be so sure. Theres lots of players who had tons of potential to only be a busts. No you can say your just being a positive thinker and laws of attraction. And just hoping since you said it that it will come true. Even with andy ried it doesnt make it a for sure thing. And its not bad to think and hope. But all we have right now is potential and talent. Theres no quarantess players will resch their potential. There may be higher probability for some but still no guarantees. The signs might point up but still no quarantess. Their track record might be the best but no quarantess. You cant honestly say you know for sure and can't guarantee anything just based on potential. I thinkk thats milkmans point.

[Chiefs4life24]

I found out yesterday their is an I in team, its in the a-hole lol. Also im sorry milkman I meant no offence, I'm just extremely excited to see these guys play at a high level this year

[jason1981]

Chiefs4life. Besides calling you nieve we could say your just extremely optimistic in players reaching their potential and i can get behind that cuz i sure hope they all reach their potential this year. I cant wait till august cuz ready for some football and ready to get a new dannnnnn....phone. i got a note 4 and had it for year and half and it worked perfect. Great phone but when they did their last software updates my phine freezes everything i try to do on it and will reset itself and samsung hasnt fixed their glitch and the note 6 (7) comes out aug 2 and i will finally have a phone that i dont want to through. I came so close of theowing this ohone as hard as i can into the ground. Not sure if there isnt anytbing more frustrating than a phone going bonkers all the dam....... time. Lol