Let's talk about what Alex Smith is worth on the trade market.

[ctchiefsfan]

As Bike so aptly pointed out in the Alex to the Pro Bowl thread we NEED draft picks and we NEED cap space. And the easiest way to probably get some of both is to trade our Pro Bowl QB. According to overthecap.com trading Alex saves us $17 million in cap space. That ain't chump change. Cutting Tamba Hali (GOD! I hate saying that!) saves us another $8 million in cap space. So with just 2 moves we can go from being something like $5 million over the cap in 2018 to having something like $20 million in cap space. Doesn't make us rich, but it surely would make us a lot better off. Of course, we can cut Alex (I HATE saying that) but that doesn't solve our draft pick problem.

So we need to trade Alex. So the obvious question is "WHAT CAN WE GET FOR HIM?" I'd like to hear y'alls thoughts on what you think the best we have a chance of getting for him is and what you think the lowest offer we should honestly consider is. I'll do my best to start the ball rolling.

Of course, I want a mid-to-high first round and a mid-to-high 2cond round pick for him. But then...I want to win the power ball and bang a supermodel too and that ain't a gonna happen. So here are my thoughts....The day of our game against the Titans the idea of 2 second round picks (what we paid to get Alex) was floated and I'd be very happy with that. But a part of me would prefer 2 picks in the 2018 draft to 1 pick in 2018 and another in 2019. After all, our NEED for picks is NOW. So I'd be very happy with a 2cond and a 3rd in 2018. That would put us back in halfway decent shape for the 2018 draft.

As to the lowest we should take...I think we'll cut him if we can't trade him so getting ANYTHING is better than nothing. And because every team in the league probably thinks we'll probably cut him I suspect we'll get a few offers from some "bargain shoppers". So I think we should listen to ANY offers but that any offer less than a 2cond round pick we should tell them "I'll think about it". I mean....we can probably "fire-sale" him for a 5th round pick in the pre-season if the choice is that or cutting him and getting nothing.

What do y'all think?

[Chiefs4life24]

1st and 3rd would be what he is worth to me

[ctchiefsfan]

1st and 3rd would be what he is worth to me

In the same year or over 2 years? Or either one?

[Chiefs4life24]

the same year

[Bike]

So does whatever team that takes him have to eat the remainder of his contract?

[ctchiefsfan]

the same year

That would be a GREAT DEAL!

[ctchiefsfan]

So does whatever team that takes him have to eat the remainder of his contract?

In a trade the acquiring team would have to eat $17 million of his contract (unless Alex agreed to renegotiate for say a 3 year deal but that wouldn't affect us). Alex's total contract is for $20.6 million next year, but $3.6 million of that is a pro-rated bonus that we have to pay no matter what we do. So cut or trade, we will have to eat that $3.6 million but we will free up $17 million in cap space. For the Chiefs its pretty simple. If they cut him or trade him before the final roster cuts then we eat the $3.6 million prorated bonus and create $17 million in cap space. And that is why we will cut or trade him. We need the cap space and we have Mahomes. So Alex is almost certainly history.

[Bike]

In a trade the acquiring team would have to eat $17 million of his contract (unless Alex agreed to renegotiate for say a 3 year deal but that wouldn't affect us). Alex's total contract is for $20.6 million next year, but $3.6 million of that is a pro-rated bonus that we have to pay no matter what we do. So cut or trade, we will have to eat that $3.6 million but we will free up $17 million in cap space. For the Chiefs its pretty simple. If they cut him or trade him before the final roster cuts then we eat the $3.6 million prorated bonus and create $17 million in cap space. And that is why we will cut or trade him. We need the cap space and we have Mahomes. So Alex is almost certainly history.
Well, if that's the case, there will have to be a bidding war for us to get any picks. If not more than one team is interested, then no bidding war and no picks. They'll simply wait till we cut him. Sound right?

[Chiefs4life24]

All this is mute until it actually happens though, IF it even happans

[ctchiefsfan]

Well, if that's the case, there will have to be a bidding war for us to get any picks. If not more than one team is interested, then no bidding war and no picks. They'll simply wait till we cut him. Sound right?

That is EXACTLY the worry. They all know we want to get rid of his cap hit. But the flip side to that coin is that there are several teams out there that either suck or are sort of a 6-10 to maybe 9-7 type team but haven't got anything but a loser at QB and have lots of picks and lots of cap space...Cleveland and Buffalo come immediately come to mind. So they have the treasure and they NEED to get to get a damned good QB and QBs like Alex don't grow on trees. Unless I'm mistaken he had the highest rating of any QB this season...yes, even higher than Brady.

So there *should* be several teams out there that want and need Alex and have the picks and cash to buy him. And yeah...they pretty much know that if they don't trade for him we'll cut him just for the cap space, but then they will wind up in a cap space bidding war where they might wind up having to offer $90 million or more over 3 years with probably $55 million guaranteed to get him. That's a big risk to take on a guy that will be 34 at the start of next season.

Being logical, nobody really wants him for just the 1 year he has left on his contract. And Alex doesn't really want to become a free Agent coming off 1 season with a 2cond or 3rd tier team and now being 35 in 2019. Alex wants 1 more BIG CONTRACT. So you trade for Alex and then ask him to renegotiate for a 3 year deal with maybe $40-$45 million guaranteed with only a $12 million cap hit in 2018. Alex would probably take it because it get's him an extra $20-$25 million in guaranteed money. BOOM! You've just locked in a damned good QB for 3 years with the ability to toss him after 2 years if he doesn't work out and only having to eat maybe $8-$15 million in dead money.

So there is really no way of telling what--if anything--we can get for him, but I think we have a very good chance of getting some good value for him. Not what we'd like but good value none-the-less.

[Bike]

That is EXACTLY the worry. They all know we want to get rid of his cap hit. But the flip side to that coin is that there are several teams out there that either suck or are sort of a 6-10 to maybe 9-7 type team but haven't got anything but a loser at QB and have lots of picks and lots of cap space...Cleveland and Buffalo come immediately come to mind. So they have the treasure and they NEED to get to get a damned good QB and QBs like Alex don't grow on trees. Unless I'm mistaken he had the highest rating of any QB this season...yes, even higher than Brady.

So there *should* be several teams out there that want and need Alex and have the picks and cash to buy him. And yeah...they pretty much know that if they don't trade for him we'll cut him just for the cap space, but then they will wind up in a cap space bidding war where they might wind up having to offer $90 million or more over 3 years with probably $55 million guaranteed to get him. That's a big risk to take on a guy that will be 34 at the start of next season.

Being logical, nobody really wants him for just the 1 year he has left on his contract. And Alex doesn't really want to become a free Agent coming off 1 season with a 2cond or 3rd tier team and now being 35 in 2019. Alex wants 1 more BIG CONTRACT. So you trade for Alex and then ask him to renegotiate for a 3 year deal with maybe $40-$45 million guaranteed with only a $12 million cap hit in 2018. Alex would probably take it because it get's him an extra $20-$25 million in guaranteed money. BOOM! You've just locked in a damned good QB for 3 years with the ability to toss him after 2 years if he doesn't work out and only having to eat maybe $8-$15 million in dead money.

So there is really no way of telling what--if anything--we can get for him, but I think we have a very good chance of getting some good value for him. Not what we'd like but good value none-the-less.

Excellent explanation, thank you.

[matthewschiefs]

Like CT mentioned the league knows that with the cap hit the Chiefs are going to have to cut him. I really don't think that we will get a top pick for him.

But after having the season he had and the start of the playoff game before Andy went all Andy with the screens (One day I'll get over it LOL) I think now we will get SOMETHING for him but my top is 3rd rounder. I just don't see anymore than that with his cap hit being well known

[Bike]

Like CT mentioned the league knows that with the cap hit the Chiefs are going to have to cut him. I really don't think that we will get a top pick for him.

But after having the season he had and the start of the playoff game before Andy went all Andy with the screens (One day I'll get over it LOL) I think now we will get SOMETHING for him but my top is 3rd rounder. I just don't see anymore than that with his cap hit being well known
Well, the Chiefs are gonna have to throw it out there that they just might keep Smith for the remainder of his contract and reduce the cap elsewhere. We need a mid 2nd and a 3rd pick at least out of this. Another year of Smith grooming Mahomes would be ideal as far as I'm concerned. I doubt this happens, but the pot needs to be stirred to get some picks thrown our way.

[Chiefs4life24]

at the very least we will get 2 2nd rounders for him otherwise nothing

[Bike]

Well, let's talk about our sucky cap situation for a second.
2 players that will most certainly be gone with zero dead money:
Revis - 4.5 mil cap hit
Ford - 8.7 mil cap hit
There's over 13 mil right there.
Players that could, or should be released:
Hali - 9.4 - 1.7 dead money
Johnson - 10.2 - 2.2 dead money
Bailey - 8 - 2 dead money
Parker - 7 - 2 dead money
Everybody else that is taking up big chunks of cap space really has too much dead cap to outright release.
So there is 49 million freed up right there. And that's just outright releases. We should be able to trade one or two of those guys. And if we could restructure Houston and Fisher, that could free up some more.
Berry has a whopping 25 mil dead cap space, so he ain't going nowhere.
Doable? I dunno.
But that is one way to keep Smith for the remainder of his contract.

[ctchiefsfan]

Well, the Chiefs are gonna have to throw it out there that they just might keep Smith for the remainder of his contract and reduce the cap elsewhere. We need a mid 2nd and a 3rd pick at least out of this. Another year of Smith grooming Mahomes would be ideal as far as I'm concerned. I doubt this happens, but the pot needs to be stirred to get some picks thrown our way.

Bike...You've brought up a fascinating possibility. One that has been floating around in my head with no particular shape and you sort of chrystalized it for me. Bear with me for a moment please.....

We are going to eat $3.6 million on Alex's contract no matter what. Then there is a roster bonus of $2 million so if we put him on the 53 man roster he now costs us $5.6 million and somewhere there is a $500K workout bonus. But that still leaves us with $14.5 to $15 million in cap savings if we put him on the roster but trade him before the preseason or it might be week 1....not quite sure on the date. So that extra $2 million would buy us several more weeks to try to make deal but still get some big cap savings and hopefully an important pick in 2019. So we could keep him through the pre-season and maybe save about $11.5 million on the cap hit. How do we get under the cap enough to pay for our draft picks? Well....Tamba being gone will save $8 million so that almost covers our deficit and our draft picks. And since we all know that good QBs get injured in the pre-season and early season on a regular basis that means an Alex Smith that nobody will bid for in July might suddenly have HUGE VALUE in August because we held on to him a little longer or on any weekend when a "name" QB went down up to the trade deadline and still in theory save about $8.5 million on the cap. You really brought up an interesting point. We can essentially keep Alex on the market up to the trade deadline and still save about $8 million which might come in real handy just before the trade deadline.

Of course I'm going a bit beyond my knowledge here, but by my understanding of how NFL contracts work, the above is all possible. The longer you keep him the less cap space you save but maybe his value triples if Carson Wentz or someone similar goes down in week 2?

Playing around with these ideas is FUN!

[Bike]

Bike...You've brought up a fascinating possibility. One that has been floating around in my head with no particular shape and you sort of chrystalized it for me. Bear with me for a moment please.....

We are going to eat $3.6 million on Alex's contract no matter what. Then there is a roster bonus of $2 million so if we put him on the 53 man roster he now costs us $5.6 million and somewhere there is a $500K workout bonus. But that still leaves us with $14.5 to $15 million in cap savings if we put him on the roster but trade him before the preseason or it might be week 1....not quite sure on the date. So that extra $2 million would buy us several more weeks to try to make deal but still get some big cap savings and hopefully an important pick in 2019. So we could keep him through the pre-season and maybe save about $11.5 million on the cap hit. How do we get under the cap enough to pay for our draft picks? Well....Tamba being gone will save $8 million so that almost covers our deficit and our draft picks. And since we all know that good QBs get injured in the pre-season and early season on a regular basis that means an Alex Smith that nobody will bid for in July might suddenly have HUGE VALUE in August because we held on to him a little longer or on any weekend when a "name" QB went down up to the trade deadline and still in theory save about $8.5 million on the cap. You really brought up an interesting point. We can essentially keep Alex on the market up to the trade deadline and still save about $8 million which might come in real handy just before the trade deadline.

Of course I'm going a bit beyond my knowledge here, but by my understanding of how NFL contracts work, the above is all possible. The longer you keep him the less cap space you save but maybe his value triples if Carson Wentz or someone similar goes down in week 2?

Playing around with these ideas is FUN!

You bet! But here's another thought. If Reid can't trade Smith for the picks he wants - Smith stays. For all we know, Reid has no intention of letting Smith go. I don't think there is any way on earth the Chiefs release Smith outright. There are other ways to get our cap down per my previous post.
We shall see!

[matthewschiefs]

Well, let's talk about our sucky cap situation for a second.
2 players that will most certainly be gone with zero dead money:
Revis - 4.5 mil cap hit
Ford - 8.7 mil cap hit
There's over 13 mil right there.
Players that could, or should be released:
Hali - 9.4 - 1.7 dead money
Johnson - 10.2 - 2.2 dead money
Bailey - 8 - 2 dead money
Parker - 7 - 2 dead money
Everybody else that is taking up big chunks of cap space really has too much dead cap to outright release.
So there is 49 million freed up right there. And that's just outright releases. We should be able to trade one or two of those guys. And if we could restructure Houston and Fisher, that could free up some more.
Berry has a whopping 25 mil dead cap space, so he ain't going nowhere.
Doable? I dunno.
But that is one way to keep Smith for the remainder of his contract.

Great info here.


Guess it's possible to keep him around I just don't see them actually doing it. The Mahomes era is beginning

[Bike]

Great info here.


Guess it's possible to keep him around I just don't see them actually doing it. The Mahomes era is beginning

I hear ya. But another year behind Smith can only help Mahomes. Remember, Aaron Rodgers sat for three years behind Farve...

[jason1981]

We cam trade alex and rb ware to the browns who we all know dorsey knows both these players strengths. Browms have alot of picks to give.

[Bike]

Well, let's talk about our sucky cap situation for a second.
2 players that will most certainly be gone with zero dead money:
Revis - 4.5 mil cap hit
Ford - 8.7 mil cap hit
There's over 13 mil right there.
Players that could, or should be released:
Hali - 9.4 - 1.7 dead money
Johnson - 10.2 - 2.2 dead money
Bailey - 8 - 2 dead money
Parker - 7 - 2 dead money
Everybody else that is taking up big chunks of cap space really has too much dead cap to outright release.
So there is 49 million freed up right there. And that's just outright releases. We should be able to trade one or two of those guys. And if we could restructure Houston and Fisher, that could free up some more.
Berry has a whopping 25 mil dead cap space, so he ain't going nowhere.
Doable? I dunno.
But that is one way to keep Smith for the remainder of his contract.

And keep in mind, all them players mentioned above come from our defense - a defense that collapsed to an average Tennessee team and knocked us out of the playoffs.

[matthewschiefs]

I hear ya. But another year behind Smith can only help Mahomes. Remember, Aaron Rodgers sat for three years behind Farve...

Very true but the Packers didn't put what we did into Mahomes in terms of giving up the picks for him. He kinda fell into their laps .

[Bike]

Very true but the Packers didn't put what we did into Mahomes in terms of giving up the picks for him. He kinda fell into their laps .

Agreed. If I remember right, we picked DJ right before GB picked Rodgers.

[matthewschiefs]

Agreed. If I remember right, we picked DJ right before GB picked Rodgers.

If not right before pretty damn close to it

[Bike]

And what pisses me off even more: 5 million in dead cap we have to pay this year for the release of Jeremy Maclin.

[ctchiefsfan]

Like CT mentioned the league knows that with the cap hit the Chiefs are going to have to cut him. I really don't think that we will get a top pick for him.

But after having the season he had and the start of the playoff game before Andy went all Andy with the screens (One day I'll get over it LOL) I think now we will get SOMETHING for him but my top is 3rd rounder. I just don't see anymore than that with his cap hit being well known

Yup. You NAILED IT! Alex has PROVEN he can be an amazing QB. The Colts and Titans first half. Week 1 against the Patriots and many other games. There have to be plenty of coaches, GMs and OCs out there that would LOVE to get their hands on him. I hope we can do better than a 3rd round but I *think* we will be able to get some decent value for him. After all, we got Kelce in the 3rd, Hunt in the 3rd and Hill in the 5th. Since we MUST unload Alex's cap hit I wouldn't cry too much if we got a 3rd round for Alex this year when we REALLY need the picks.

[ctchiefsfan]

Well, the Chiefs are gonna have to throw it out there that they just might keep Smith for the remainder of his contract and reduce the cap elsewhere. We need a mid 2nd and a 3rd pick at least out of this. Another year of Smith grooming Mahomes would be ideal as far as I'm concerned. I doubt this happens, but the pot needs to be stirred to get some picks thrown our way.

And I think that is exactly what was being done when the Chiefs "leaked" that they might be open to trading Alex and the opening bid would be 2 2cond round picks. We have a good commodity and before you blatantly offer to sell you first let everybody get a sniff and a ballpark idea of what it might cost.

[ctchiefsfan]

Well, the Chiefs are gonna have to throw it out there that they just might keep Smith for the remainder of his contract and reduce the cap elsewhere. We need a mid 2nd and a 3rd pick at least out of this. Another year of Smith grooming Mahomes would be ideal as far as I'm concerned. I doubt this happens, but the pot needs to be stirred to get some picks thrown our way.

Just so. Hard to figure how to work that into the cap though.

[Bike]

Just so. Hard to figure how to work that into the cap though.

Not really. Check out my post below...

[Chiefs4life24]

Round 1 2005 NFL Draft

Pick 1 - SF - Alex Smith

Pick 15 - KC - Derrick Johnson

Pick 24 - GB - Aaron Rodgers

[Bike]

Well, let's talk about our sucky cap situation for a second.
2 players that will most certainly be gone with zero dead money:
Revis - 4.5 mil cap hit
Ford - 8.7 mil cap hit
There's over 13 mil right there.
Players that could, or should be released:
Hali - 9.4 - 1.7 dead money
Johnson - 10.2 - 2.2 dead money
Bailey - 8 - 2 dead money
Parker - 7 - 2 dead money
Everybody else that is taking up big chunks of cap space really has too much dead cap to outright release.
So there is 49 million freed up right there. And that's just outright releases. We should be able to trade one or two of those guys. And if we could restructure Houston and Fisher, that could free up some more.
Berry has a whopping 25 mil dead cap space, so he ain't going nowhere.
Doable? I dunno.
But that is one way to keep Smith for the remainder of his contract.

Here is one way CT

[matthewschiefs]

Here is one way CT

The only question is would the Chiefs want to do this for Alex.

[Bike]

The only question is would the Chiefs want to do this for Alex.

That, my friend, is the question. The one thing we still have to consider is this: AS11 is STILL UNDER CONTRACT for another year.

[ctchiefsfan]

Well, let's talk about our sucky cap situation for a second.
2 players that will most certainly be gone with zero dead money:
Revis - 4.5 mil cap hit
Ford - 8.7 mil cap hit
There's over 13 mil right there.
Players that could, or should be released:
Hali - 9.4 - 1.7 dead money
Johnson - 10.2 - 2.2 dead money
Bailey - 8 - 2 dead money
Parker - 7 - 2 dead money
Everybody else that is taking up big chunks of cap space really has too much dead cap to outright release.
So there is 49 million freed up right there. And that's just outright releases. We should be able to trade one or two of those guys. And if we could restructure Houston and Fisher, that could free up some more.
Berry has a whopping 25 mil dead cap space, so he ain't going nowhere.
Doable? I dunno.
But that is one way to keep Smith for the remainder of his contract.

HOT DAMN! Way more information than I had taken the time to collect. Thanks for putting it all in one place.

IMO, Revis is gone, Hali is gone. So that's about $12 million.

At $8.7 million Ford should go if we can get a stud OLB in the draft or pick up a decent aging veteran for less (maybe $5-$6 million). Ford is good, but he ain't (IMO) $8.7 million good.

IMO DJ, Parker and EB ain't going nowhere.

So I figure that when all is said and done maybe we are adding maybe $14 to $19 million to our cap space. Deduct the $5 million we are supposed to be over the cap next year, plus $4 million for draft picks and we have about $5-$10 million in available cap space. Throw in any kind of a decent trade for Alex to get us some draft picks and we'd be at $22-$27 million in cap space. Not rich but in decent shape and maybe with enough cash to play in the aging veteran free agent market to fill a glaring need or two.

[Chiefs4life24]

Why shouldn't we cut DJ and Parker. IMO anywhere we can cut savings we should do it

[ctchiefsfan]

And keep in mind, all them players mentioned above come from our defense - a defense that collapsed to an average Tennessee team and knocked us out of the playoffs.

Excellent point! Defense is where we need the most help. Especially RUN DEFENSE.

[ctchiefsfan]

The only question is would the Chiefs want to do this for Alex.

Emotions aside, I just don't see that happening.

[Bike]

Why shouldn't we cut DJ and Parker. IMO anywhere we can cut savings we should do it

I would like to keep both. But with the dire cap situation Dorsey left us with, it would make sense to trade or release them.

[Bike]

Emotions aside, I just don't see that happening.
Consider this: If Reid can't trade Smith for the picks he wants - Smith stays. For all we know, Reid has no intention of letting Smith go. I don't think there is any way on earth the Chiefs release Smith outright. There are other ways to get our cap down per my previous post.

[ctchiefsfan]

Why shouldn't we cut DJ and Parker. IMO anywhere we can cut savings we should do it

Yes, DJ is slowing down. But he is still a team leader in the locker room and on the field. Remember that almost strip he had in the closing minutes of the Titans game that the Zebras screwed us out of? We NEED those kind of people.

Parker I consider "borderline" at his price but we must keep in mind that all these cap savings we are talking about are all coming from our Defense...our same Defense that wound up in the bottom 8 in the NFL. I don't care how good Mahomes is but if our Defense is giving up 35 points per game we are going to be a cellar-dweller. There is only so much we can strip away from our already marginal Defense. They were really good at "bend but don't break" for 4 years. but this year they just bent TOO MUCH.

[jason1981]

We cam trade alex and rb ware to the browns who we all know dorsey knows both these players strengths. Browms have alot of picks to give.

Yeah i think we can get browns to bite on this. We have to remember if teams know we will cut him anyways. And alex wont cry if we cit him cuz he will still get whats due plus money he signs with next team. So we could throw in ware to help.

[ctchiefsfan]

Consider this: If Reid can't trade Smith for the picks he wants - Smith stays. For all we know, Reid has no intention of letting Smith go. I don't think there is any way on earth the Chiefs release Smith outright. There are other ways to get our cap down per my previous post.

And RIGHT THERE is the conundrum. We are caught between a rock and a hard place. We need cap space...DESPERATELY. Our Defense is already weak. We're terribly short on draft picks. Something HAS TO GIVE. And as much as I like Alex AND I REALLY DO, selling Alex is the only realistic fix I see. Of course...I'm not an NFL head coach or GM and that is a DAMNED GOOD THING!

[ctchiefsfan]

Yeah i think we can get browns to bite on this. We have to remember if teams know we will cut him anyways. And alex wont cry if we cit him cuz he will still get whats due plus money he signs with next team. So we could throw in ware to help.

So you are saying trade Alex and Ware to Dorsey and keep West as our #2 running back? That's a very interesting idea. Especially if it could really improve our draft situation. My compliments for really thinking "outside the box". You would be a MUCH BETTER GM than I would. You probably play better chess than I do too.

[Chiefs4life24]

I have an eye on a couple middle round runnings back I believe could be our #2 but we will see

[Bike]

So anyway, after posting all this crap, here is what I think will happen. Alex Smith stays right here. He is still under contract. Another year of maturity backing up AS11 will help Mahomes in the long run. Good night all.

[jason1981]

So you are saying trade Alex and Ware to Dorsey and keep West as our #2 running back? That's a very interesting idea. Especially if it could really improve our draft situation. My compliments for really thinking "outside the box". You would be a MUCH BETTER GM than I would. You probably play better chess than I do too.

Yes hunt is our #1 now. Ware coming back we would have too much depth at rb.

Hunt, west, ware, A. Hunt

Ware amd hunt are more similar than west. So change of back would west amd A. Hunt 3rs string.

Ware could browns #1 rb. With smith amd ware the browns would already immidiately be upgraded more competitive. Id say browns could easily go 8-8 next year with smithbamd ware alomg with their draft picks this and last years. Browns would be stupid to turn the trade down.

[ctchiefsfan]

You bet! But here's another thought. If Reid can't trade Smith for the picks he wants - Smith stays. For all we know, Reid has no intention of letting Smith go. I don't think there is any way on earth the Chiefs release Smith outright. There are other ways to get our cap down per my previous post.
We shall see!

Sorry to take so long to reply. The thread got kind of busy last night and I missed a few posts.

Personally, I'd prefer we kept Smith for the remainder of his contract. But I really don't see how we can. I saw your post with ways we could save something like $49 million, but to let that many veterans (all of them on the Defense) leave in a year where our draft picks are pretty much depleted would probably wreck next season. If there is a way to keep him for 2018 I'd want to do it. But I think the cost of the path you suggested is just too high.

[ctchiefsfan]

Consider this: If Reid can't trade Smith for the picks he wants - Smith stays. For all we know, Reid has no intention of letting Smith go. I don't think there is any way on earth the Chiefs release Smith outright. There are other ways to get our cap down per my previous post.

I hope like hell you are right. Alex is a very good QB and to just outright release him because of the cap would be borderline criminal.

[ctchiefsfan]

Yeah i think we can get browns to bite on this. We have to remember if teams know we will cut him anyways. And alex wont cry if we cit him cuz he will still get whats due plus money he signs with next team. So we could throw in ware to help.

Y'know Jason....the more I think about this idea the more I like it. It adds another $2 million to our cap space on top of the $17 million we'd save by trading Alex. It would certainly be good for the Browns since it would give them a veteran QB and RB both of whom have 3-4 truly solid years left in them. And being honest now that we have Hunt, Ware is...well...expendable.

[Bike]

I hope like hell you are right. Alex is a very good QB and to just outright release him because of the cap would be borderline criminal.
Don't get me wrong. I'm ready to move on from Alex Smith. I'm ready for the Mahomes era to begin. But the situation has to be right for Mahomes, and for the Chiefs. To me, the best scenerio is for another year of maturity for Mahomes, and for AS11 to finish out his contract. I wouldn't even mind if Mahomes beats out AS11 in training cap and Smith backs up Mahomes! Either way, we are a better team with AS11 here for the last year of his contract. Does Hunt/Veach/Reid think the same? I think they do. If they can fix Dorsey's cap fiasco. Which I think they can do.

[jason1981]

Y'know Jason....the more I think about this idea the more I like it. It adds another $2 million to our cap space on top of the $17 million we'd save by trading Alex. It would certainly be good for the Browns since it would give them a veteran QB and RB both of whom have 3-4 truly solid years left in them. And being honest now that we have Hunt, Ware is...well...expendable.

Browns would be stupid to turn down a smith and ware deal that was fair. Those two wouls make browms instantly respectable and competitive omce again.

[Bike]

Sorry to take so long to reply. The thread got kind of busy last night and I missed a few posts.

Personally, I'd prefer we kept Smith for the remainder of his contract. But I really don't see how we can. I saw your post with ways we could save something like $49 million, but to let that many veterans (all of them on the Defense) leave in a year where our draft picks are pretty much depleted would probably wreck next season. If there is a way to keep him for 2018 I'd want to do it. But I think the cost of the path you suggested is just too high.
Well, let's take a look at those six players I mentioned to reduce our cap by 49 mil:

Revis - his play was embarrassing vs Tennessee. Let him go.
Ford - oft injured, never did pan out like we had hoped - zero payout of dead cap money. Let him go.
Hali - end of great career. Oft injured. Let him go.
Bailey - part of the worst DL in the NFL vs the run. Replaceable via trade or FA. Let him go.
DJ - still playing well, team leader, great player, but getting up there in age and speed. Restructure to a cap-friendly contract, or trade/release.
Parker - decent safety but replaceable via FA/draft/trade. Restructure to a cap-friendly contract, or trade/release.
There's your 49 mil cap reduction and AS11 stays.

[matthewschiefs]

Well, let's take a look at those six players I mentioned to reduce our cap by 49 mil:

Revis - his play was embarrassing vs Tennessee. Let him go.
Ford - oft injured, never did pan out like we had hoped - zero payout of dead cap money. Let him go.
Hali - end of great career. Oft injured. Let him go.
Bailey - part of the worst DL in the NFL vs the run. Replaceable via trade or FA. Let him go.
DJ - still playing well, team leader, great player, but getting up there in age and speed. Restructure to a cap-friendly contract, or trade/release.
Parker - decent safety but replaceable via FA/draft/trade. Restructure to a cap-friendly contract, or trade/release.
There's your 49 mil cap reduction and AS11 stays.

I could see them letting go of any you listed outside of Ford I don't think they would let him go.

[Bike]

I could see them letting go of any you listed outside of Ford I don't think they would let him go.

I dunno. He is an ok player, but not up to his 1st rd pick status. Ford has had back problems ever since college, and was put on IR again this year. He is averaging 4 sacks/yr with the Chiefs. Definetely tradable.

[jason1981]

Well, let's take a look at those six players I mentioned to reduce our cap by 49 mil:

Revis - his play was embarrassing vs Tennessee. Let him go.
Ford - oft injured, never did pan out like we had hoped - zero payout of dead cap money. Let him go.
Hali - end of great career. Oft injured. Let him go.
Bailey - part of the worst DL in the NFL vs the run. Replaceable via trade or FA. Let him go.
DJ - still playing well, team leader, great player, but getting up there in age and speed. Restructure to a cap-friendly contract, or trade/release.
Parker - decent safety but replaceable via FA/draft/trade. Restructure to a cap-friendly contract, or trade/release.
There's your 49 mil cap reduction and AS11 stays.

I think your wrong about
Bailey, -we need him. Run defense
Parker- underrated and multi position flexibility

Dee Ford- we meed pash rushers.

We keep these 3 players atleast.

I wont mind keeping revis to help tutor peters.

Maybe we csn trade peters simce he wont stand for the flag amd national anthem.

[Chiefs4life24]

Browns would be stupid to turn down a smith and ware deal that was fair. Those two wouls make browms instantly respectable and competitive omce again.

then they could use the first Pick on Josh Rosen QB from UCLA and then the 4th pick on RB Shaquan Barkley from Penn State boom Smith, Rosen, Ware and Barkley instantly better that's what I would do anyways

[Bike]

then they could use the first Pick on Josh Rosen QB from UCLA and then the 4th pick on RB Shaquan Barkley from Penn State boom Smith, Rosen, Ware and Barkley instantly better that's what I would do anyways

Rosen has come out and said he will NOT play for Cleveland. I think Dorsey takes the rb. Maybe then he trades the 4th for Smith and Ware!

[Bike]

I think your wrong about
Bailey, -we need him. Run defense
Parker- underrated and multi position flexibility

Dee Ford- we meed pash rushers.

We keep these 3 players atleast.

I wont mind keeping revis to help tutor peters.

Maybe we csn trade peters simce he wont stand for the flag amd national anthem.

The way our D folded in the 2nd half of the Tennessee game, I wouldn't care if we traded the whole bunch and started anew...

[matthewschiefs]

I dunno. He is an ok player, but not up to his 1st rd pick status. Ford has had back problems ever since college, and was put on IR again this year. He is averaging 4 sacks/yr with the Chiefs. Definetely tradable.

If I recall correctly he was leading the team in sacks before getting hurt.

I don't really disagree that he is cutable I just think they won't instead they will stick with him hoping that he can stay healthy next year.

[Bike]

If I recall correctly he was leading the team in sacks before getting hurt.

I don't really disagree that he is cutable I just think they won't instead they will stick with him hoping that he can stay healthy next year.

I hope they do keep him. But he is a 9 million dollar cap hit - with zero dead money - in an unfriendly cap year.

[ctchiefsfan]

Well, let's take a look at those six players I mentioned to reduce our cap by 49 mil:

Revis - his play was embarrassing vs Tennessee. Let him go.

Agreed. No questions. I never viewed him as anything but a very cheap mid-season "quick fix". By overthecap.com that saves us $4.5 million.


Ford - oft injured, never did pan out like we had hoped - zero payout of dead cap money. Let him go.

Mostly agree. But we still need some sort of pass rush from the right. Without help from the right Houston will be double teamed on the left and be fairly ineffective. With our shortage of draft picks it's not going to be easy to replace him in the draft so we'd probably have to bring in an aging veteran on a 1 year contract. Call that maybe $5 million. So net savings of about $3.7 million


Hali - end of great career. Oft injured. Let him go.

Excuse me if I shed a tear or two. But you are correct. I expect he is going to retire. And I'll be happy if that happens. I'd be very sad if we cut him. But yes, we've seen him play his last year as a Chief. Savings $8 million. The bad part here is we've just lost 2 OLBs on the right side, so as mentioned above that is a hole we will have to plug. Do we have a competent "next man up" to fill this slot? Hence my comment above about having to use some of the cash we save on Ford to pick up an aging veteran on a 1 year deal.


Bailey - part of the worst DL in the NFL vs the run. Replaceable via trade or FA. Let him go.

Agreed. He's worth more to us as cap space than he is as a player. Savings $6 million.


DJ - still playing well, team leader, great player, but getting up there in age and speed. Restructure to a cap-friendly contract, or trade/release.

With Tamba gone, I think losing DJ would be a terrible mistake unless someone wanted to give up some SERIOUS draft picks for him. So I would be 100% against an outright release. I also *think* nobody is going to give us as much draft pick value as I believe he is worth to us as a leader and a player. So IMO the way to go here is restructure. He is currently looking at a $10.25 million payday for 2018 (but only $2.25 million of that is guaranteed) and then becoming a free agent who won't get another long term contract from anyone. He surely knows he is slowing down. Not in desire, but in ability. So we add another year to his contract, bump his guaranteed money by $3-$5 million. In short, he plays next year and maybe the year after, we increase his cost a bit, but we divide it over 2 years so we get cap savings for 2018 of maybe $3-5 million, he gets an extra guaranteed $3-$5 million and we get his rights for 2 more years instead of 1. In short, a classic example "putting off until tomorrow a decision we really don't want to make today". Usually not a good idea, but in this case with with how strapped we are for cap cash and how short we are of draft picks I think it a good decision.


Parker - decent safety but replaceable via FA/draft/trade. Restructure to a cap-friendly contract, or trade/release.

I think he is worth the $7 million he is scheduled to make in 2018. He is also going to be 31 in 2018 so the "age thing" is catching up with him. He's also under contract through 2019 for basically the same money (only $500K more). And we'd save $1.5 million extra by cutting him in 2019 rather than 2018. So while I don't strongly object to losing Parker, I question whether 2018 is the year to do it.


There's your 49 mil cap reduction and AS11 stays.

Of course, its not a REAL $49 million in cap savings. These cap savings are "gross" not "net". IMO we'd create a lot of holes by taking all of these moves in 2018 and with a depleted draft we'd have a very difficult time filling those holes with cheap rookies. So we would likely have to spend a fair part of that $49 million on free agents to plug all the holes we had created. So I think realistically our REAL SAVINGS would be closer to $25-$30 million once we plugged the holes we created. That is certainly enough to keep Alex.

In short Bike, it's not any of your individual suggestions that I have a problem with...it's making all of them AT ONCE. Your whole suggestion pretty much blows up our entire Defense and that scares the crap out of me with us having so few draft picks.

Please be CLEAR....I'd LOVE for us to find a way to keep Alex for 2018. I REALLY, REALLY like Alex.

But since we are playing in the land of "Alice In Wonderland", let's really go down the rabbit hole and eat or drink whatever it is that makes the rabbit crazy as hell.....

We all know that Reid likes to have an EXPERIENCED QB to back up his starter. And Reid doesn't seem to mind paying that backup a good bit more than the average backup makes. Alex currently has $3.6 million he is guaranteed to make from the Chiefs in 2018. If nobody is willing to pay us a lot of draft picks for Alex, then why not see if we can renegotiate his contract? Here's what is floating around in my head....extend Alex's contract to 4 years--so 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021. Increase his guaranteed money to $15-$20 million (all in the form of pro-rated bonus). Promise Alex a REAL chance to compete for the starter job in 2018. So Alex's yearly pro-rated bonus would be about $4 million. So that is a guaranteed $16 million. Make his salary (not guaranteed) $1 million per year or maybe $2 million. Add a bonus of $500k once he becomes the backup for any game he starts (injury to Mahomes) or $250K for any game where he doesn't start but has to step in (injury to Mahomes). This is problematic because it creates a well of cap cash we have to keep available if Mahomes gets injured but maybe there is a way to handle that that smarter people than I can figure out.

I know that sounds convoluted and crazy. And it is. But it keeps Alex as a starter or as a backup, gives us an EXCELLENT backup once Mahomes becomes the starter and makes our total QB cost for the next 4 years at an average of about $12 million per year (which is dirt cheap for a combined cost for 2 excellent QBs.) Would Alex do it? I doubt it. But you never know until you ask. It would give Alex an extra $15-$20 million in guaranteed money in his bank account plus his yearly salary as long as we kept him plus any bonus money he made when he had to take the field. And it would save Alex from the indignity of getting traded to a marginal or crappy team. Essentially a "golden parachute" with a gentle landing.

Yeah I've gone down the rabbit hole and entered "fantasy-land".

[ctchiefsfan]

Don't get me wrong. I'm ready to move on from Alex Smith. I'm ready for the Mahomes era to begin. But the situation has to be right for Mahomes, and for the Chiefs. To me, the best scenerio is for another year of maturity for Mahomes, and for AS11 to finish out his contract. I wouldn't even mind if Mahomes beats out AS11 in training cap and Smith backs up Mahomes! Either way, we are a better team with AS11 here for the last year of his contract. Does Hunt/Veach/Reid think the same? I think they do. If they can fix Dorsey's cap fiasco. Which I think they can do.

AGREE COMPLETELY! The tricky part is how we make it work in a year where we are desperately short of draft picks and even shorter of cap space.

[ctchiefsfan]

I could see them letting go of any you listed outside of Ford I don't think they would let him go.

Curiosity....why do you think letting go of Ford is such a bad idea? He's not "bad" but he's not exactly great either.

[jason1981]

The way our D folded in the 2nd half of the Tennessee game, I wouldn't care if we traded the whole bunch and started anew...

I agree but i think thats more on sutton than players. Sutton is bad at making in game adjustments. I hope we fire sutton.

[ctchiefsfan]

I agree but i think thats more on sutton than players. Sutton is bad at making in game adjustments. I hope we fire sutton.

Certainly this season shook my faith in Sutton. But I'm not sure it's all Sutton's fault. We lost Poe, we lost Ford and dear old Tamba is pretty much finished. Those 3 things created a lot of problems. I think we need to spend some serious draft capitol on our Defense--once we get some draft capitol to spend.

[matthewschiefs]

Certainly this season shook my faith in Sutton. But I'm not sure it's all Sutton's fault. We lost Poe, we lost Ford and dear old Tamba is pretty much finished. Those 3 things created a lot of problems. I think we need to spend some serious draft capitol on our Defense--once we get some draft capitol to spend.


This is another reason I think Alex is done in KC. We are really limited in draft capitol right now and cap capitol moving Alex would help give us more of both.

[ctchiefsfan]

This is another reason I think Alex is done in KC. We are really limited in draft capitol right now and cap capitol moving Alex would help give us more of both.

THERE IT IS. If we can get back a decent chunk of the draft capitol we traded to get Mahomes then it was an AMAZING move. If not, then we probably face 1 or 2 grim years. Same applies to cap space. To me it really comes down to...."can we turn that trade up to get Mahomes into something close to trading Alex for Mahomes?"

[jason1981]

THERE IT IS. If we can get back a decent chunk of the draft capitol we traded to get Mahomes then it was an AMAZING move. If not, then we probably face 1 or 2 grim years. Same applies to cap space. To me it really comes down to...."can we turn that trade up to get Mahomes into something close to trading Alex for Mahomes?"


Yeah we need more picks in the draft. We need to draft heavy in cb, ilb, and a NT.

Logan was 1 yr contract and i dint think hrs worth resigning. So we need a NT.

Next year defense looks like

Bailey, unkown, jones
Houston, ragland, unknown, ford or kap
Peters,berry, parker, nelson

I think revis would be good to keep of we can sign to a better deal cap wise.

Dj not a full tine starter anymore

So we need NT, ilb and cb for sure.

Offense im not to worried about except fulton is a FA and we need him as a swing back up. We have conley coming back from injury at wr as well.

[matthewschiefs]

Curiosity....why do you think letting go of Ford is such a bad idea? He's not "bad" but he's not exactly great either.

It's not that I think it's a "bad idea" it's just a move I don't see them making

[ctchiefsfan]

Yeah we need more picks in the draft. We need to draft heavy in cb, ilb, and a NT.

Logan was 1 yr contract and i dint think hrs worth resigning. So we need a NT.

Next year defense looks like

Bailey, unkown, jones
Houston, ragland, unknown, ford or kap
Peters,berry, parker, nelson

I think revis would be good to keep of we can sign to a better deal cap wise.

Dj not a full tine starter anymore

So we need NT, ilb and cb for sure.

Offense im not to worried about except fulton is a FA and we need him as a swing back up. We have conley coming back from injury at wr as well.


Yeah...I figure we're in pretty good shape on Offense once we get the "Alex Smith Question" sorted out. No doubt in my mind that we need to bring a bunch of fresh blood into our Defense. Doesn't have to be through the draft, after all we've gotten some fine players from UDFA, practice squads and other teams rookie cuts but no doubt in my mind that our Defense is aging and we need to be aggressive in looking for new, young talent on Defense.

[ctchiefsfan]

It's not that I think it's a "bad idea" it's just a move I don't see them making

Gotcha. Ford is nothing special but replacing him with someone as good or better for less money isn't going to be the easiest thing either.