So who will win the SB???

[Chiefster]

Colts or Bears?

Personally I hope the Bears slap Manning around like a red headed step child.

(Apologies, in advance, to all red headed step children who may be reading this.)

...Wish we could post polls here; really makes me glad we're going to vBulletin. :-D

[kenny1937]

I will go out on a big limb and say that the Colts and Bears will be in the Super Bowl. I would say the Bears win, unless Tony takes Lovey out to dinner before the Superbowl.


8-) :lol: :pint:

[Chiefster]

kenny1937 wrote:
I will go out on a big limb and say that the Colts and Bears will be in the Super Bowl. I would say the Bears win, unless Tony takes Lovey out to dinner before the Superbowl.


8-) :lol: :pint:

Yeah, I meant to imply who would win the SB not who will be in it; that had already been decided when I posted this thread.

[kenny1937]

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :-D

[Old_admin]

I'll take the Colts. The AFC was better all year, and I think this will show in the superbowl. I do think that the Bears matchup well with the Colts though.

2 of the 3 Bears losses this year were against AFC opponents. Those two losses were against Miami and New England. The Colts beat Miami once, and beat the Patriots twice.

Regarding the points, the Bears are succeptible to teams with decent offenses. They just didn't have to play many since they are in the NFC North(Det, GB, Minn). They gave up on average 17 pts against the teams that I would consider decent offenses. None of those teams have the offensive firepower that the Colts do. Combine that with the stage being the superbowl and it means points for the Colts. The Bears offense is just inconsistent enough to keep the Indy defense guessing. Add in a few Def/Spec Teams plays by Chicago and I think the Bears score in the teens or low 20's.


With all of the above and add in a warm weather climate, I like the Colts against the spread and the OVER. Colts 31-20.

That's my .02

[Chiefster]

admin wrote:
I'll take the Colts. The AFC was better all year, and I think this will show in the superbowl. I do think that the Bears matchup well with the Colts though.

2 of the 3 Bears losses this year were against AFC opponents. Those two losses were against Miami and New England. The Colts beat Miami once, and beat the Patriots twice.

Regarding the points, the Bears are succeptible to teams with decent offenses. They just didn't have to play many since they are in the NFC North(Det, GB, Minn). They gave up on average 17 pts against the teams that I would consider decent offenses. None of those teams have the offensive firepower that the Colts do. Combine that with the stage being the superbowl and it means points for the Colts. The Bears offense is just inconsistent enough to keep the Indy defense guessing. Add in a few Def/Spec Teams plays by Chicago and I think the Bears score in the teens or low 20's.


With all of the above and add in a warm weather climate, I like the Colts against the spread and the OVER. Colts 31-20.

That's my .02



.02 worth reading. You make an excellent point with good stats to support your hypothises, however, I'm counting on the game being played on the field and not on paper. Good post! :-D

[kenny1937]

Having read your post coach, you do make some good points, looking at it objectively, I have to admit that Peyton is the better QB, Rex, is too inconsistent, and the colts have played tougher ball in the playoffs, ie, teams in the playoff have not been able to run against them like the teams in the regular season was able to. I agree that the AFC is the tougher league, but the Super Bowl can be the place where teams play over their heads, and any thing could happen. It ought to be interesting.

8-) :lol: :pint:

[Old_admin]

kenny1937 wrote:
Having read your post coach, you do make some good points, looking at it objectively, I have to admit that Peyton is the better QB, Rex, is too inconsistent, and the colts have played tougher ball in the playoffs, ie, teams in the playoff have not been able to run against them like the teams in the regular season was able to. I agree that the AFC is the tougher league, but the Super Bowl can be the place where teams play over their heads, and any thing could happen. It ought to be interesting.

8-) :lol: :pint:

I agree with you here. I was sharing how it should work out in my mind. This season was one where everything was the exact opposite of what you would think though.

[Chiefster]

admin wrote:

I agree with you here. I was sharing how it should work out in my mind. This season was one where everything was the exact opposite of what you would think though.

Man; ditto that! If you would have told me at that after week one that the chiefs would go to the playoffs I would have said you were crazy! :-)

[kenny1937]

Chiefster wrote:


admin wrote:

I agree with you here. I was sharing how it should work out in my mind. This season was one where everything was the exact opposite of what you would think though.

Man; ditto that! If you would have told me at that after week one that the chiefs would go to the playoffs I would have said you were crazy! :-)

I agree with both of you, this has been a topsy turvy season, and this board has been a great pleasure to this old fan, keep up the good work coach, this is a quality board, with quality people posting on it. We have had a bad moment or two, but all in all, this is the best most civilized board on the web. Thanks again.

8-) :lol: :pint:

[Old_admin]

Super breakdown: Betting analysis on the big game

By T.O. Whenham of Doc`s Sports
Sun, Jan 28, 2007


Doc`s Sports is a handicapper with Covers Experts.

For bettors that really like to handicap, this week is the greatest time of the year.

There`s only one game to look at and you have two full weeks to analyze it, so you can cover every possible angle you could want to. You can fire up your spreadsheets, devise every variety of power ratings, and look at every possible matchup in a hundred different ways.

If you`re a trend junkie, you`ll also have time to figure out every possible reason to back one team or the other. You`ll also have time to discount and ignore the trends that don`t help to justify your opinions. To help you out on that front, here are nine Super Bowl trends to get you started in your analysis.

1) Bears and the over: Chicago is perceived as a defensive team, but bettors have clearly overcompensated for that fact all year and they aren`t learning from their mistakes. Chicago went over the total in 11 of its 16 regular season games and landed right on the number in another.

The trend is still solid in the playoffs too with the Bears going over in both games. In a lot of games it hasn`t even been close - 65 points with a total of 35 against Tampa Bay, 69 points against St. Louis when the total was a season-high 41 ½, 51 points with a 37-point total against Seattle in the playoffs. Indy`s presence has resulted in reasonably high total of 48 1/2, but there still is a fairly good chance, given history, that Chicago will go over.

2) The historical over: Over the course of the last 31 Super Bowls, the over has been a profitable default pick. In that time, the total has been exceeded 19 times. That`s more than 61 percent - certainly a solid winning rate.

3) Bouncing back from the last game: You generally shouldn`t have to bounce back from a win, but there is reason to believe that both teams might struggle to do that.

Indianapolis put up 474 total yards of offense against the Patriots in the conference final. The last five times that they have put up more than 350 yards the Colts are just 1-4 ATS in the following game.

The Bears have their problems too. They are just 2-5 ATS the last seven times they have played after allowing at least 250 yards passing, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven in the game after they have won against the spread. One team might have an edge, though. The Colts are 12-5-1 ATS in games following tilts in which they have covered.

4) Going on the road: The Super Bowl is the only game of the year, outside of the preseason, in which both teams are playing on the road.

That seems to favor the Bears. Indianapolis was 3-5 ATS on the road during the regular season, and failed to cover the last four times it left the cozy RCA Dome. Not surprisingly, given their previous playoff woes, the Colts are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff road games.

They`ve also failed to cover the last four times that they have been favorites on the road. Chicago was only 4-4 ATS on the road this year, but was a more impressive 3-2 in its last five trips.

5) Dealing with poor passing games: Critics everywhere are using Rex Grossman and his often questionable performances under center as a good reason to fade the Bears.

But the Bears are used to playing after sub-par passing performances. Grossman put up 144 yards against the Saints. The last eight times the Bears have put up less than 150 yards of passing they have come back in the following game and covered all but once.

6) Bears defense rebounding: Though the scoreboard didn`t show it last week, there was some reason to be concerned about the Bears defense.

They were fairly successful at keeping the Saints out of the end zone, but weren`t nearly as good at defending the pass, allowing Drew Brees 354 yards. Indy obviously can pass fairly well, so the Colts could do some damage if they can exploit the same holes that Brees found.

Bears backers don`t need to worry too much, though. The team is 14-6-1 ATS in games after they have allowed more than 350 yards passing.

7) Playing on grass: Given that the Bears play all of their home games on grass while the Colts play on carpet, the natural assumption is that the Bears have the advantage in Miami.

Although Chicago should certainly be more comfortable and familiar with the surface, the Colts have shown that they can hold their own on the real stuff. They are 9-4-1 ATS over their last 14 on grass.

8) Bears` running game: Though it remains to be seen if the Colts defense can hold up one more time and stop the run, the Bears will benefit from their ability to run easily against the Saints.

They ran for almost 200 yards. After they have rushed for 150 yards in a game the Bears must feel unbeatable because they come back very well the next game. They are 20-7-1 ATS in the following game the last 28 times that that has happened.

9) The 30-point barrier: The Bears scored more than 30 points last game. The last five times they have done that they have been just 1-4 ATS in the following games.

The Colts scored 30 points, too, but they also allowed more than 30. You might think that they should be concerned, but it`s actually a good thing. They are 4-0 ATS in games after they have allowed at least 30 points.

[Chiefster]

Alas, I am but a mere humble Chiefs fan and not so knowledgeable about such things; I just want the Colts to lose. :-D

[kenny1937]

Wow, sounds like the making of a very intertaining game, I can hardly wait to see how this all works out. Very interesting post coach, looking forward to the game.

8-) :lol: :pint:

[Chiefster]

kenny1937 wrote:
Wow, sounds like the making of a very intertaining game, I can hardly wait to see how this all works out. Very interesting post coach, looking forward to the game.

8-) :lol: :pint:

Agreed; as long as the Colts lose. :-D

[kenny1937]

(grin), I'm going way out on the limb and predict that the Colts win the Super Bowl in a sloppy, messy, rainy day, and that Peyton Manning wins the MVP award.
It could happen, (grin)!!

8-) :lol: :pint:

[Old_admin]

admin wrote:
I'll take the Colts. The AFC was better all year, and I think this will show in the superbowl. I do think that the Bears matchup well with the Colts though.

2 of the 3 Bears losses this year were against AFC opponents. Those two losses were against Miami and New England. The Colts beat Miami once, and beat the Patriots twice.

Regarding the points, the Bears are succeptible to teams with decent offenses. They just didn't have to play many since they are in the NFC North(Det, GB, Minn). They gave up on average 17 pts against the teams that I would consider decent offenses. None of those teams have the offensive firepower that the Colts do. Combine that with the stage being the superbowl and it means points for the Colts. The Bears offense is just inconsistent enough to keep the Indy defense guessing. Add in a few Def/Spec Teams plays by Chicago and I think the Bears score in the teens or low 20's.


With all of the above and add in a warm weather climate, I like the Colts against the spread and the OVER. Colts 31-20.

That's my .02



Beep Beep. That's me tooting my own horn. I pretty much called this game spot on. I said Colts by 11 pts and it turned out to be 12 pts. I also said a total of 51 points and it ended up being 46. If the Colts kick the field goal at the end like they should have and don't miss the extra point, I'd have been scary close.

Anyhow, I'm glad the AFC won the Superbowl. I'll always root for the AFC, unless maybe the Donkeys are playing.

[Chiefster]

admin wrote:


admin wrote:
I'll take the Colts. The AFC was better all year, and I think this will show in the superbowl. I do think that the Bears matchup well with the Colts though.

2 of the 3 Bears losses this year were against AFC opponents. Those two losses were against Miami and New England. The Colts beat Miami once, and beat the Patriots twice.

Regarding the points, the Bears are succeptible to teams with decent offenses. They just didn't have to play many since they are in the NFC North(Det, GB, Minn). They gave up on average 17 pts against the teams that I would consider decent offenses. None of those teams have the offensive firepower that the Colts do. Combine that with the stage being the superbowl and it means points for the Colts. The Bears offense is just inconsistent enough to keep the Indy defense guessing. Add in a few Def/Spec Teams plays by Chicago and I think the Bears score in the teens or low 20's.


With all of the above and add in a warm weather climate, I like the Colts against the spread and the OVER. Colts 31-20.

That's my .02



Beep Beep. That's me tooting my own horn. I pretty much called this game spot on. I said Colts by 11 pts and it turned out to be 12 pts. I also said a total of 51 points and it ended up being 46. If the Colts kick the field goal at the end like they should have and don't miss the extra point, I'd have been scary close.

Anyhow, I'm glad the AFC won the Superbowl. I'll always root for the AFC, unless maybe the Donkeys are playing.

You did a good job coach! I rooted against Manning, ‘cause I'm sick of the league baby coddling him; I mean I find myself wondering just when are they going to put a skirt on the guy.

[kenny1937]

Quote Coach:
Beep Beep. That's me tooting my own horn. I pretty much called this game spot on. I said Colts by 11 pts and it turned out to be 12 pts. I also said a total of 51 points and it ended up being 46. If the Colts kick the field goal at the end like they should have and don't miss the extra point, I'd have been scary close.

Anyhow, I'm glad the AFC won the Superbowl. I'll always root for the AFC, unless maybe the Donkeys are playing.

Yes you did call it Coach, and it was apparent that the AFL is the stronger of the two conferences, that is what makes it so tough on us year after year, although we didn't make it past the first play off game, we still made it to the play offs, so when it is all said and done, we had a decent team, look at all those teams that didn't make it to the playoffs. Can't wait til July!!




8-) :lol: :pint:

[Chiefster]

We eeked into the Play-offs.