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yashi
04-20-2009, 02:11 PM
Dropping hints and stirring the pot: Why the Chiefs will NOT draft Aaron Curry | Red Zone (http://chiefsblog.kansascity.com/?q=node/782)

Dropping hints and stirring the pot: Why the Chiefs will NOT draft Aaron Curry

So a few things happened over the weekend that made me, at least for this moment, change my mind that Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry is the obvious, slam-dunk choice for the Chiefs to draft Saturday if they hold onto their No. 3 overall pick.

Yes, it's still possible, and Kansas City doesn't need linebackers less after the weekend and Mike Vrabel's absence from the team's voluntary minicamp. But anyway, back on topic: The Chiefs, at least to me, are a lot more likely to take an offensive tackle in that spot than they were five days ago.

In fairness, I get the feeling that the Chiefs' draft board was completed weeks ago. Things are always subject to change, but the way it works is that general manager Scott Pioli and his staff of merry men would generate a list of players, all of them ranked by how much the Chiefs want them. It was under a different regime, of course, but as it happened last year, the top overall player on the Chiefs' board was Glenn Dorsey. He fell to No. 5, and Kansas City got him, but the point was that if the Chiefs had the No. 1 overall pick, they'd determined that Dorsey was the best player out there, and they'd have taken him regardless of draft position.

The top player is generated by a combination of talent, scouting reports, value and, I'd suspect, need. So who's at the top of the Chiefs' draft board this year? For months, I've written here that it must be Curry. HAS to be Curry. NEEDS to be Curry. And maybe it still is Curry.

But here are the things I saw this weekend that makes me think that, well, it might not be Curry holding up a Chiefs jersey come mid-afternoon Saturday.

- Brian Waters was a no-show. The Pro Bowl guard's absence underscored how far the Chiefs' offensive line still has to go. It's unclear yet whether Waters will be on this team when it lines up in the fall, and at the risk of speculating here, Waters' decision to skip Todd Haley's first minicamp was a bad sign for a team whose first priority is to get everyone on the same page. Without Waters, the Chiefs have exactly one offensive lineman they can realistically count on beyond this year and possibly next: Branden Albert. Factor Waters out of the equation, and here's the team's starting offensive line:

LT Albert
LG Wade Smith (who replaced Waters in first-team drills over the weekend)
C Rudy Niswanger
RG Mike Goff
RT Damion McIntosh

- Curry's agent was in Detroit this weekend. This is almost definitely a negotiating ploy from the Lions to quarterback Matthew Stafford's agent. It's designed to give the Lions a little more negotiating power as they try to seal a contract with whomever they'll make the No. 1 pick. They want that player signed before Saturday's draft, and sometimes teams have to play dirty. But it wouldn't be a shock if Detroit did take Curry at No. 1 overall. He's the safest pick in the draft, according to some experts, and as we learned three years ago when Houston took defensive end Mario Williams at No. 1 overall, sometimes it's a smart play to take a defender in that spot. To that end, the Chiefs might not even get the chance to draft Curry.

- Pioli's close eye on the offensive line. I just don't think that, more than 20 years after his final snap as a college lineman, Pioli is still so interested in watching an NFL line that he hovers around it for at least three practices. Pioli was measuring everything during the three practices reporters were allowed to attend this weekend, but no unit got his attention quite like the offensive line. He stood uncomfortably close at times, not talking to anyone or smiling, and carrying with him a notepad and pen. It's possible that Pioli was sizing up exactly what the Chiefs have -- and likely finding out it's not as much as most NFL teams would like.

- Matt Cassel's potential. It's clear that Cassel will be the Chiefs' starting quarterback, barring a catastrophe, if for no other reason than his $14 million guaranteed salary. But there's more to Cassel than that, including one of the most accurate arms the Chiefs have had on their roster in years. I saw Cassel make one bad throw the entire weekend, when he overthrew Bobby Engram on a corner post route Sunday. The trajectory on his passes is low and tight, and his passes generally arrive near receivers' numbers. It's something the Chiefs just haven't had in a long time, and I get the feeling they don't want anything to interfere with that.

So with those four observations in mind, perhaps the Chiefs' greatest need really is offensive tackle. If they draft Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith at No. 3, yes, that's a high price for a right tackle -- even if Albert is shifted to somewhere other than left tackle -- but it also would almost definitely lock in a pair of oustanding bookend linemen for the next five to seven years. There's an incredible market for that in the NFL, and the value of two marquee tackles is as high as anything these days.

The Chiefs need a linebacker and a pass rusher and a lot of other things. But after watching those guys this weekend, some things changed in my mind. We'll see Saturday how Pioli's mind processes it.
I agree for the most part. On paper, Curry looks like the obvious choice if he falls to us. He's the best talent in the draft, our defense is terrible, and he plays a position that is currently unfilled. Yet I don't think he'll be the choice when it's all said and done.

Note what he said about Cassel's minicamp showing last weekend. I'm loving that.

Vanilla Garilla
04-20-2009, 02:30 PM
Very interesting, nice read. I have decided I am done speculating on the Draft because I will know for sure who the Chiefs are picking in a little less than 6 days!!!!WOOT!

tornadospotter
04-20-2009, 02:36 PM
Very interesting, nice read. I have decided I am done speculating on the Draft because I will know for sure who the Chiefs are picking in a little less than 6 days!!!!WOOT!
I will be gone all weekend on the road, have to go to Colorado for a wedding. I know that I will have major post overload when I finally get to log on after draft! I hope I can at least get some news.




We should do a sports bet, how high the post count for draft weekend! Godfather make it happen.

yashi
04-20-2009, 03:12 PM
LB has been filled but not on a long term basis, don't forget we picked up Vrabel, Thomas and Beisel, all potential starters.
Well, there's still room for 1 more starting LB in 3-4 if you do not consider Beisel starter material, which I don't. And of course like you mentioned the only long-term LB we have is DJ.

jmlamerson
04-20-2009, 03:18 PM
LB has been filled but not on a long term basis, don't forget we picked up Vrabel, Thomas and Beisel, all potential starters.

Well, yeah. But these guys are stopgaps until we can draft real LBs. We needed warm bodies for 2009 at ILB and we got them cheap.

You do know how many LBs we've drafted in the past three years, right? Zero. That's right, none. Pioli is being forced to start from scratch here.

jmlamerson
04-20-2009, 03:19 PM
I agree for the most part. On paper, Curry looks like the obvious choice if he falls to us. He's the best talent in the draft, our defense is terrible, and he plays a position that is currently unfilled. Yet I don't think he'll be the choice when it's all said and done.

Note what he said about Cassel's minicamp showing last weekend. I'm loving that.

I cannot see Pioli paying $10M to $12M a year for an OLB. Ever. Which is why I think you're right - we go OT or trade down.

Vanilla Garilla
04-20-2009, 04:32 PM
Is everyone forgetting that Pioli and company selected Mayo with their first pick last season with the Patriots?

jmlamerson
04-20-2009, 04:36 PM
Is everyone forgetting that Pioli and company selected Mayo with their first pick last season with the Patriots?

No, everyone remembers. But he only took Mayo after he built the best DL in the league and one of the best OLs in the league.

And there is a massive salary difference between 3 and 7.

theaxeeffect4311
04-20-2009, 04:59 PM
No, everyone remembers. But he only took Mayo after he built the best DL in the league and one of the best OLs in the league.

And there is a massive salary difference between 3 and 7.

Actually Mayo was selected tenth overall.

jmlamerson
04-20-2009, 05:29 PM
Actually Mayo was selected tenth overall.

Ah, that's right. They traded down with the Saints. Thanks.

Bike
04-20-2009, 05:42 PM
Actually Mayo was selected tenth overall.
Ha! And the media was spouting how NE was reaching to get Mayo...
Gotta wonder if Pioli was here last year if Dorsey at 5 would be his pick!!

theaxeeffect4311
04-20-2009, 05:53 PM
Ha! And the media was spouting how NE was reaching to get Mayo...
Gotta wonder if Pioli was here last year if Dorsey at 5 would be his pick!!

Pioli always drafts guys who fit his system. It just sucks that Dorsey is the one stuck in that mix while the Chiefs are switching systems. I like Dorsey and think he still has a lot of potential.

Peterson never seemed to have a system.

Bike
04-20-2009, 06:01 PM
Pioli always drafts guys who fit his system. It just sucks that Dorsey is the one stuck in that mix while the Chiefs are switching systems. I like Dorsey and think he still has a lot of potential.

Peterson never seemed to have a system.
I'm not saying Dorsey is a bust...yet. We are just stuck with him and his 20 mil salary cap no matter how he performs.
I was just implying that Pioli is such a huge upgrade over Peterson that things would have been much different (better) already had Clark pulled the plug a year ago...

theaxeeffect4311
04-20-2009, 06:14 PM
I'm not saying Dorsey is a bust...yet. We are just stuck with him and his 20 mil salary cap no matter how he performs.
I was just implying that Pioli is such a huge upgrade over Peterson that things would have been much different (better) already had Clark pulled the plug a year ago...

I know, I was agreeing with you. I'm saying it was because Peterson did not have a plan or system that really hurt us. Pioli knows what he's running, has a system, and executes it. While we are stuck with Dorsey, for now, the only part that upsets me is that I think Dorsey could be a very good player, but his chances of leaving are not very good. I would like to see how he'd look on a team like the Bucs or Colts who run pretty effective Cover 2 defenses.

jmlamerson
04-20-2009, 06:26 PM
I know, I was agreeing with you. I'm saying it was because Peterson did not have a plan or system that really hurt us. Pioli knows what he's running, has a system, and executes it. While we are stuck with Dorsey, for now, the only part that upsets me is that I think Dorsey could be a very good player, but his chances of leaving are not very good. I would like to see how he'd look on a team like the Bucs or Colts who run pretty effective Cover 2 defenses.

I'm very interested to give Dorsey a shot as a 3-4 DE. He has more speed than the average DT. He just needs to get tougher against the run.

theaxeeffect4311
04-20-2009, 06:32 PM
I'm very interested to give Dorsey a shot as a 3-4 DE. He has more speed than the average DT. He just needs to get tougher against the run.


I put that up to scheme. While Dorsey does need to get stronger, I am not sure I can blame his lack of ability all on him. A cover 2 defense like we were running last season is going to be terrible against the run. But it was also his rookie season. Most guys are trying to get used to the speed of the game.

But you are not going to question his size for a 3-4 DE?

jmlamerson
04-20-2009, 07:01 PM
I put that up to scheme. While Dorsey does need to get stronger, I am not sure I can blame his lack of ability all on him. A cover 2 defense like we were running last season is going to be terrible against the run. But it was also his rookie season. Most guys are trying to get used to the speed of the game.

But you are not going to question his size for a 3-4 DE?

The most underratedly bad move we made last season was cutting Napo. Although he wasn't exactly a great MLB, he was a consitent tackler and a legitimate presence in the middle of the field. Without a real MLB, teams had no fear on running over Dorsey.

Although Dorsey was a rookie, rookie DTs still should not be blown up when one-on-one with an OG. I don't see his purpose on this team as a DT. He's not a run stuffer, and I don't see him as a legitimate Warren Sapp-style sack threat.

Dorsey's a little short for the 3-4 DE position, but he's the right weight and has a the proper skill set. He's a squatter version of Aaron Smith. At the least, it's worth the shot.

theaxeeffect4311
04-20-2009, 07:22 PM
The most underratedly bad move we made last season was cutting Napo. Although he wasn't exactly a great MLB, he was a consitent tackler and a legitimate presence in the middle of the field. Without a real MLB, teams had no fear on running over Dorsey.

Although Dorsey was a rookie, rookie DTs still should not be blown up when one-on-one with an OG. I don't see his purpose on this team as a DT. He's not a run stuffer, and I don't see him as a legitimate Warren Sapp-style sack threat.

Dorsey's a little short for the 3-4 DE position, but he's the right weight and has a the proper skill set. He's a squatter version of Aaron Smith. At the least, it's worth the shot.

I agree that Harris should not have been cut. Dorsey has some things that he needs to learn. I think it's interesting that you think he's not a run stuffer, but has the proper skills to play 3-4 DE. I think Dorsey can be a DT on the right team.

honda522
04-20-2009, 07:25 PM
LB has been filled but not on a long term basis
Well said brother.

KottkeKU
04-21-2009, 02:57 AM
youve certainly made a good argument. I think adding one of the top OT at no.3 would solidify our offense for years to come. we would have a better improved ground and air game...

adding curry would certainly improve the defense, but theres still so many holes to fill on defense...

and matt cassell, bowe, lj and tony g would go to waste if the o-line blows...

hmm...4 more days :) I hope we can trade down personally...but i dont think its gonna happen...

jap1
04-21-2009, 03:46 AM
I thought I would throw in my 2 cents.

I would prefer to get someone other than Curry. Ideally a trade down and then get an OT and have two future pro bowl OTs on the team. Not to mention it makes Cassel, and LJ (two of our most expensive players) much more effective with a better line in front of them. Even if we dont move down, I would love to get an OT.

That being said, I wouldn't object to the pick of Curry. He will probably be a very good and hopefully great LB.

Vanilla Garilla
04-21-2009, 01:28 PM
I'm pretty sure from reading all of these comments that we are all in agreement that whether we get Curry or an OL we will be very happy about the draft. IMO it would take a huge catastrophe to ruin the draft for us Chiefs fans.

yashi
04-21-2009, 01:32 PM
I'm pretty sure from reading all of these comments that we are all in agreement that whether we get Curry or an OL we will be very happy about the draft. IMO it would take a huge catastrophe to ruin the draft for us Chiefs fans.

yep.

Whether we wind up with Curry, Raji, Smith, or Monroe, or trade down and get Tyson Jackson, I'm happy with any of those players. I would be slightly disappointed only if we traded down and someone grabbed Jackson before we could get him. Basically if we trade down for Washingtons 13, and then the Broncos take him 12th.

jamesald
04-21-2009, 01:46 PM
I like Curry a lot, but Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith would turn the weakness of the team (offensive line) into a strength. Monroe/Smith at left tackle, Albert can play right tackle or guard. Draft a center. Goff and Waters (if he's not traded) at guard. Mcintosh needs to be released. Herb Taylor is better than Mcintosh and he can play left or right tackle. Wade Smith is better suited as a backup. If Monroe or Smith are drafted, the line becomes better and depth is not a problem either.

jmlamerson
04-21-2009, 02:07 PM
yep.

Whether we wind up with Curry, Raji, Smith, or Monroe, or trade down and get Tyson Jackson, I'm happy with any of those players. I would be slightly disappointed only if we traded down and someone grabbed Jackson before we could get him. Basically if we trade down for Washingtons 13, and then the Broncos take him 12th.

Agreed entirely. If we end up with any of those four at the 3 spot, I don't think anyone can complain.

And if we trade down and the worst came to pass and Tyson wasn't on the board, we could go Maualuga or Oher. There will be a wealth of good players at positions of need for us if we can trade down to the 10-20 range.

SDChief09
04-21-2009, 02:42 PM
To me Curry or no Curry, the most important part of the draft for this team will be getting into the 2nd round, or moving waters and gonzalez, or whatever they can, for picks, I dont think many of us believe Pioli plans to stay put...he even said dont leave for the day after pick 3 if they do pick, because they may move up...

chief31
04-22-2009, 02:01 AM
I'm pretty sure from reading all of these comments that we are all in agreement that whether we get Curry or an OL we will be very happy about the draft. IMO it would take a huge catastrophe to ruin the draft for us Chiefs fans.

I certainly don't have as many expectations, for specifics, in this draft as I have had the past two drafts.

Unless we lose Waters and fail to properly replace that loss, there isn't a whole lot that could really ruin it for me.

We can't possibly get rid of Jared Allen this year.:D

I like that we have so many players that could be used for trade-bait. (Waters, TG, LJ, Dorsey and Thigpen at least)


I like Curry a lot, but Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith would turn the weakness of the team (offensive line) into a strength. Monroe/Smith at left tackle, Albert can play right tackle or guard. Draft a center. Goff and Waters (if he's not traded) at guard. Mcintosh needs to be released. Herb Taylor is better than Mcintosh and he can play left or right tackle. Wade Smith is better suited as a backup. If Monroe or Smith are drafted, the line becomes better and depth is not a problem either.

I agree with all of that, except Herb Taylor/MacIntosh comparison. And I don't exactly disagree with that.

I'd kinda have to call that a push, or lean toward Tosh's experience, as neither played in a regular NFL-style offense last season.

And I think Tosh is an excellent backup to have on board. Expensive, maybe. But as much as you could expect for a backup.

Pro_Angler
04-22-2009, 11:26 AM
I thought it was because Herm say he'd be a good pick?? lol