NFL Preview: AFC West, Come Complete with Betting Guide!

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Denver Broncos
Team Wins Over – Under 6.5

The new coaching regime didn’t start off on the right foot, but his team may be running by seasons end…

Biggest Story:

Head Coach Josh McDaniels was hired by the Broncos in the offseason after firing the popular head coach Mike Shanahan. McDaniels is a Belichick disciple and served as the Patriots Offensive Coordinator for the past two years. McDaniels led the Patriots to the 5th best overall offensive production in the league last year. McDaniels installed the spread offense in New England, and looks to do the same in Denver. Jay Cutler seemed to be a perfect candidate to lead this team with this offensive philosophy. However, McDaniels knew Matt Cassell was on the market and wanted to bring to the team a quarterback that knew his system. When talks failed, Cutler felt he was disrespected and mistreated during the whole process and he wanted out. Eventually the Broncos gave in to Cutler’s demands even though the Broncos had the right quarterback for the spread offense. Cutler features a big arm and can make any throw. Denver also has great talent at the wide receiver position, including: Brandon Marshall, and the speedy Eddie Royal. This offense was destined to succeed with Cutler at quarterback. Now the question becomes can Kyle Orton take the helm now vacated by Cutler. Orton had a 21-12 Record as a starter. This is a very impressive record; and it demonstrates that he is a competitor and a winner. However, Orton’s individual stats do not tell the same story. Orton completes only 55% of his passes, a number that must improve in a pass friendly spread offense. Orton also has only 3 more career touchdowns than interceptions, 30-27 respectively. Supporters of Orton say stats don't matter, he wins games; however, proponents argue that Orton has been a beneficiary of a good defense. Unless something changes with the Broncos defense, it will be on Orton’s shoulders to win the games as Broncos boasted the 27th overall Defense, including 30th in points allowed.

Off Season Moves:

This is where we give you an analysis of the teams offseason moves. A majority of this information is restricted to free agents and trades. We will rarely cover the draft. It is not our job to “grade” the draft classes. However, it will be included if the player drafted is expected to play a vital role for the team. For a complete list of the teams acquisitions and departures, sign up at Squares Wanted and get the electric copy of the NFL Preview.

Acquisitions:
JJ Arrington, RB; Correll Buckhalter, RB; Jabar Gaffney, WR; LaMont Jordan, RB; Kyle Orton, QB; Chris Simms, QB; Andra Davis, LB; Brian Dawkins, S; Renaldo Hill, S; Darrell Reid, DL

Departures:
Jay Cutler, QB; Erik Pears, OT; Selvin Young, RB; Dre Bly, CB; John Elgelberger, DE; Marquand Manuel, S; Karl Paymah, CB; Dewayne Robertson, DT; Jamie Winborn, LB

Cutler had a career year in 2008. He was the leader a Broncos offense that was 2nd in the league. The loss of Cutler quarterback is a huge loss, and Orton will have to prove he can handle the job. The Broncos have a passionate fan base that will be quick to judge the quality of the job that new head coach Josh McDaniels is doing after replacing beloved Shanahan. Despite all the off season drama, the bright spot of the off-season moves is the mass acquisitions of talented running backs. Denver drafted Knowshon Moreno with the team’s 1st pick, and made three additional off-season moves that brought in JJ Arrington from the Cardinals, LaMont Jordan, and Correll Buckhalter. Denver now has the talent in the backfield to go along with a very talented offensive line.

Buy or Sell: Against The Spread
For each team this season we are comparing the teams 2008 Against the Spread record against our prediction of the teams 2009 ATS Record. If we think the team will IMPROVE against the speard, we will BUY. If we think they will have a worse record against the spread in 09 over 2008 we will SELL.

Buy: Broncos backers got demolished against the spread in 2008 posting a 4-11-1 record. The Broncos will improve against the spread unless something disastrous happens. However, their profitability for the season is still uncertain. Last year the Broncos had the 2nd best overall offense, and still finished with that horrific ATS record. McDaniels cannot improve the offense, but only hope to sustain the same efficiency. The real question is whether the defense can improve. That job will be up to Mike Nolan. The Bronco defense is lacking in just about every area. I would not be putting big money on them covering more than 8 games; However, Buy the Broncos covering more than 4.




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