Chiefs Scoring Woes?

I keep hearing from the national sports media that the Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs, but is this true? We are giving up an average of 12.3 points per game, the best in the NFL. As far as I know we still get to use the same defense in the playoffs. Why is it assumed we will suddenly have to score more points?

I love to crunch numbers, so I looked at our first 8 games and did some analyses. Here is what I found:

1. In the Chiefs worst offensive performances they scored 17 points (twice). In the Chiefs worst defensive performances they gave up 17 points (twice). If the Chiefs only scored 17 points in every game this year, they would have won 6, lost 0 and tied 2 games (not taking overtime into account). If the Chiefs had given up 17 points in every game, they still would have been 6-0-2. To put it another way, our offense has never scored less points than our defense gave up in their worst games!

2. None of the teams we have played this year has scored more points than their season averages! Here are the numbers:

Team	Average PPG	Points scored against Chiefs	% of Average
Jax	10.8	2	19%
Dal	28.8	16	56%
Phi	22.0	16	73%
NYG	17.9	7	39%
Ten	20.7	17	82%
Oak	18.0	7	39%
Hou	17.9	16	92%
Cle	18.5	17	92%
	Cumulative Average PPG	Cumulative Vs. Chiefs	Cumulative % of Average
	154.1	91	59%

3. The Chiefs are averaging 24.0 points per game. I looked at the likely and possible AFC playoff teams we might face and calculated what they would score if the Chiefs defense held them to 59% of their average points per games.

Team	Average PPG	Expected Points vs. Chiefs
Den	42.9	25
NE	22.4	13
Cin	24.6	14
Ind	26.7	16
SD	24	14
Ten	20.7	12
Bal	21.4	13
Mia	21.7	13

Notice that among these 8 teams only Denver would score more than the Chiefs average of 24 points per game and that is only by one point!

3. There are only 3 teams in the AFC that are scoring more points per game than the Chiefs.

1. Den 42.9
2. Ind 26.7
3. Cin 24.6
4. Chiefs 24.0
4. SD 24.0

The Chiefs are scoring almost as much as the next 2 teams ahead of us. Only Denver outscores the Chiefs by a wide margin.

Barring injury, the Chiefs offense should continue to improve in the 2nd half of the season, but even if they don't, their defense is good enough to win or at least keep the games competitive. I reject the argument that the Chiefs can't score enough to win in the playoffs. They are already doing it.

Topeka, add in the fact that our offense is improving and doing more things every week. I think we will be fine (to me fine means competitive against the top teams and in the playoffs).

Thanks for looking at the numbers and breaking it down for us. It really helps to show everyone the sky isn't falling. Would I like to see more offensive production and flash? Yes, but I think our offense is "good enough," as our undefeated record shows.

Nicely done. I agree we do score enough. Will it be enough against a high powered O?? I think we still need to improve to closer to 30 pts a game average to go deep in playoffs. But I think we are a work in progress and are a good TE and WR from being the most balanced team in NFL.

GREAT STUFF Roy!!!! Truth is our offense is not scoring as many points as they should be. We've seen what they can do and it is excellent! They are just not showing their full potential as often as they should be. IMO if we have a "weak link" it is our O-line. If they can pick up their game a bit then there is no team out there that we can't throttle. We REALLY need to focus like a laser on Buffalo and then get to the bye week and get everybody that is dinged up healthy again.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan

GREAT STUFF Roy!!!! Truth is our offense is not scoring as many points as they should be. ...

---

I agree 100%, except that I would say "our offense is not scoring as many points as they could be." But, as I'm sure you understand, that is an entirely different argument from "We aren't scoring enough points to win in the playoffs." As I illustrated above, if our offense plays to its average of 24 points and we get "average" play out of our defense, we outscore every AFC playoff team except the Donkeys. To beat them either our defense or our offense would have to play slightly above average. Since they are a bitter division rival I think the Chiefs could do that especially if we have home field advantage.

Overall the Chiefs and Dolts are tied for 13th highest scoring team in the NFL, just slightly above the median of 22.85 PPG. Lucky for us 9 of the 12 teams that are outscoring us are in the NFC, so we don't have to worry about them unless we make it to the Super Bowl. If you (the media) are going to say we can't score enough to win in the playoffs, you would have to say the same thing about every AFC team except Denver. But Denver can't play all of the AFC playoff teams, so some of them will beat each other. Therefore, "The Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs" is proven false.

The Chiefs could score more based on their offensive talent even with the O-line struggles. I saw so many wide open dropped passes in the last two games. Those weren't the fault of the o-line and Smith hit those players right were he needed to. That is just a lack of concentration. Penalties, which are also correctable, have also stalled some of our drives.

The Chiefs should have scored between 6 and 14 more points in the last two games. One extra touchdown per game would give us an average of 31 PPG. Combine that with our defense and the Chiefs would be unstoppable! I think the Chiefs have played down to the level of their competition so far, doing just enough to win. I don't think that is by design, but I do think Reid is holding back on the offense and we will be more aggressive, and more productive, when we need to be. We will find out in less than 3 weeks.

Now is KC offense averaging 17 or is this with combine points from defense and special teams?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by doobs_05

Now is KC offense averaging 17 or is this with combine points from defense and special teams?

---

No. The Chiefs have not scored less than 17 points in any game this year. The team (offense, defense and special teams) has averaged 24 points per game. Football is a team sport and defensive and special teams points count just as much as offensive points do.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TopekaRoy

I agree 100%, except that I would say "our offense is not scoring as many points as they could be." But, as I'm sure you understand, that is an entirely different argument from "We aren't scoring enough points to win in the playoffs." As I illustrated above, if our offense plays to its average of 24 points and we get "average" play out of our defense, we outscore every AFC playoff team except the Donkeys. To beat them either our defense or our offense would have to play slightly above average. Since they are a bitter division rival I think the Chiefs could do that especially if we have home field advantage.

Overall the Chiefs and Dolts are tied for 13th highest scoring team in the NFL, just slightly above the median of 22.85 PPG. Lucky for us 9 of the 12 teams that are outscoring us are in the NFC, so we don't have to worry about them unless we make it to the Super Bowl. If you (the media) are going to say we can't score enough to win in the playoffs, you would have to say the same thing about every AFC team except Denver. But Denver can't play all of the AFC playoff teams, so some of them will beat each other. Therefore, "The Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs" is proven false.

The Chiefs could score more based on their offensive talent even with the O-line struggles. I saw so many wide open dropped passes in the last two games. Those weren't the fault of the o-line and Smith hit those players right were he needed to. That is just a lack of concentration. Penalties, which are also correctable, have also stalled some of our drives.

The Chiefs should have scored between 6 and 14 more points in the last two games. One extra touchdown per game would give us an average of 31 PPG. Combine that with our defense and the Chiefs would be unstoppable! I think the Chiefs have played down to the level of their competition so far, doing just enough to win. I don't think that is by design, but I do think Reid is holding back on the offense and we will be more aggressive, and more productive, when we need to be. We will find out in less than 3 weeks.

---

I agree totally that the chiefs have played down to their opponents. Not by design but by necessity. It just makes sense that when we need points the offense WILL open up with more downfield plays. This team has adopted the thought process of get an early lead and do whatever is needed to keep that lead. So this playing down to opponents levels could be by design because it's the lack of aggressive play calling that is probably keeping us from scoring a whole bunch.

when we are losing our offense marches down the field with ease and they've shown that quite a few times! that's where my optimism comes from.

The key to playing a high scoring offense like the Donks is ball control, ball control, ball control! We do not want to get into a shootout with Manning. Move the ball using several plays that eats a lot of clock which keeps our defense fresh and Manning on the sideline. A relatively low scoring affair favors the Chiefs.

all we need is that one game where the offense goes wild against some D having a really bad day and all the talk will change from how bad we are to how good we are.

So true!!!! The "talking heads" won't take us seriously until we put up 40 points against somebody. But who cares? These 4th quarter wins are hard on my ulcer, but I'd rather be 8-0 with 8 close wins, than be 5-3 or 6-2 having blown a few teams out. I'd rather we win the next 8 games by a combined total of 8 points than go 4-4 for the next 8 games and blow out a couple of teams. We aren't "flashy" and our wins may lack "bling", but I LIKE WINNING!!!!!

All I have to say is I have yet to see this team play from behind for very long before the offense seems to score, and the Defense comes through. I think this offense can score when the want to, but it so conservative to prevent turn overs, that if the first designed option is not open, they immediately go to the safety values instead of a second or third progression.

My problem is that we have become so spoiled with the defense is that we expect it every game. What happens when they play an offense that keeps them in check. Can our offense get into a trading/shoot out situation if they can't kill the clock like they always seem to do in the 4th qtr.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chiefster

The key to playing a high scoring offense like the Donks is ball control, ball control, ball control! We do not want to get into a shootout with Manning. Move the ball using several plays that eats a lot of clock which keeps our defense fresh and Manning on the sideline. A relatively low scoring affair favors the Chiefs.

---

THIS THIS AND MORE THIS

If the chiefs are able to do what they did in the first half against Cleveland keeping the ball for over 20 minutes keeping Manning on the sideline then the Chiefs will win that game.

I've been saying for weeks it's going to take an offense like the Chiefs to beat Denver .

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Seek

All I have to say is I have yet to see this team play from behind for very long before the offense seems to score, and the Defense comes through. I think this offense can score when the want to, but it so conservative to prevent turn overs, that if the first designed option is not open, they immediately go to the safety values instead of a second or third progression.

My problem is that we have become so spoiled with the defense is that we expect it every game. What happens when they play an offense that keeps them in check. Can our offense get into a trading/shoot out situation if they can't kill the clock like they always seem to do in the 4th qtr.

---

You said it yourself when the chiefs are trailing the offense marches down and gives us the lead right back we haven't trailed for very long in ANY game thus far, so saying our offense is too conservative is false, they do what they need to do to win football games. 8-0, until proven wrong there should be no arguement about too conservative

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TopekaRoy

we outscore every AFC playoff team except the Donkeys. To beat them either our defense or our offense would have to play slightly above average. Since they are a bitter division rival I think the Chiefs could do that especially if we have home field advantage.

---

Always love stat crunching. Have you taken into account what percentage of opponents' average PPG The Broncos are allowing?

Not that the stats are a clear indicator of which team would win a game. (That's why they play the game) But, clearly, it is a huge part of what leads media to lean toward The Donkos, and against The Chiefs. So, playing stat games is more than fair for the subject.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan

So true!!!! The "talking heads" won't take us seriously until we put up 40 points against somebody. But who cares? These 4th quarter wins are hard on my ulcer, but I'd rather be 8-0 with 8 close wins, than be 5-3 or 6-2 having blown a few teams out. I'd rather we win the next 8 games by a combined total of 8 points than go 4-4 for the next 8 games and blow out a couple of teams. We aren't "flashy" and our wins may lack "bling", but I LIKE WINNING!!!!!

---

Nah. 10-0 (or even 9-1) having beat The Donkos 14-10 would change the medias tune.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by chief31

Nah. 10-0 (or even 9-1) having beat The Donkos 14-10 would change the medias tune.

---

probably not, last Im hearing media saying they think the AFC representative is the bengals vs the NFC Seahawks down on the donks already

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by chief31

Always love stat crunching. Have you taken into account what percentage of opponents' average PPG The Broncos are allowing?

---

I have, now!

7 of Denver's opponents have scored more than their season averages against them. Only the Redskins have scored less.

Broncos total points allowed: 218
Opponents Cumulative average: 160.3 ppg
% of averages: 136%

Chiefs projected points against Broncos: Chiefs average 24.0 PPG X 1.36 = 32.6

Projected final score: Chiefs 32.6-Broncos 25.3

Let's adjust for home field advantage (3 points) and round off to the nearest point.
In Denver: Chiefs 31-Broncos 27
In KC: Chiefs 34-Broncos 24

I like it!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by topekaroy

i have, now!

7 of denver's opponents have scored more than their season averages against them. Only the redskins have scored less.

Broncos total points allowed: 218
opponents cumulative average: 160.3 ppg
% of averages: 136%

chiefs projected points against broncos: Chiefs average 24.0 ppg x 1.36 = 32.6

projected final score: Chiefs 32.6-broncos 25.3

let's adjust for home field advantage (3 points) and round off to the nearest point.
In denver: chiefs 31-broncos 27
in kc: chiefs 34-broncos 24

i like it!

---

whats not to like??? I love it!!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Justin5772002

probably not, last Im hearing media saying they think the AFC representative is the bengals vs the NFC Seahawks down on the donks already

---

I'm hearing the Colts because they have already beaten the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks. Cincy beat the Packers and Patriots, but lost to the Bears, Browns and Dolphins. Those are pretty bad losses. Of course Indy lost to the Dolphins and Chargers so who knows ...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TopekaRoy

I'm hearing the Colts because they have already beaten the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks. Cincy beat the Packers and Patriots, but lost to the Bears, Browns and Dolphins. Those are pretty bad losses. Of course Indy lost to the Dolphins and Chargers so who knows ...

---

I really wish we would have gone for a TE in trade we need all the weapons we can get so we can make a legitimate run at the trophy this year, I still think we are a good TE and WR shy of that, but mcCluster looking good in that slot position so who knows...

Wouldn't it suck if we won the Super Bowl this year? FOR TONY GONZALEZ...hahaha

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Justin5772002

I really wish we would have gone for a TE in trade we need all the weapons we can get so we can make a legitimate run at the trophy this year, I still think we are a good TE and WR shy of that, but mcCluster looking good in that slot position so who knows...

Wouldn't it suck if we won the Super Bowl this year? FOR TONY GONZALEZ...hahaha

---

Lol. Let's give Fasano another week or two to see what he can do. I think he will improve. Dex is a good weapon if he is used right. With McGrath. Hemingway and Avery, we have a lot of potential if they would all just play up to their abilities. With a tougher 2nd half of the schedule, I think we will start to see more production on offense. These guys are very competitive.

when your 8-0 everyone's got a bulls eye on ya. and since we're coming back from 2-14 we get all the slams

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Justin5772002

probably not, last Im hearing media saying they think the AFC representative is the bengals vs the NFC Seahawks down on the donks already

---

well bengals lost to miami last night..what will they say next?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TopekaRoy

I have, now!

7 of Denver's opponents have scored more than their season averages against them. Only the Redskins have scored less.

Broncos total points allowed: 218
Opponents Cumulative average: 160.3 ppg
% of averages: 136%

Chiefs projected points against Broncos: Chiefs average 24.0 PPG X 1.36 = 32.6

Projected final score: Chiefs 32.6-Broncos 25.3

Let's adjust for home field advantage (3 points) and round off to the nearest point.
In Denver: Chiefs 31-Broncos 27
In KC: Chiefs 34-Broncos 24

I like it!

---

I LIKE your numbers!!!

^^ I like those numbers as well. Not sure what's going to happen in Buffalo on Sunday, but I'd love a season sweep of the Donkeys.

Many people are SO convinced that the Donkeys are going to walk all over the Chiefs, but, I'm not convinced, and I'll believe it when I see it.

turnovers and INT's will tell the story. they always do. who wins this battle may come out on top

"The diffrence is the Chiefs have been winning their games by 3, and my broncos have been winning theirs by 21. If anyone actually thinks the chiefs have a chance in this game they don’t understand football very well. It’s simple math. The chiefs are going to have to score 30 points to win and that’s just not going happening."
……………………………………………………………………….
Should check before you make uniformed comments, here’s common opponents:Jags- Chiefs by 26, Broncos by 16
Cowboys- Chiefs by 1, Broncos by 3
Eagles- Chiefs by 10, Broncos by 32
Giants- Chiefs by 24, Broncos by 17
Raiders- Chiefs by 17, Broncos by 16
I see ONE blowout by Denver there, 3 of 5 we won by bigger margin…….

ummmm we outscored more the same apponents as denver 3 times

I don't think KC scores over 30 against Denver

I'll gladly eat crow if they do tho

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brdempsey69

^^ I like those numbers as well. Not sure what's going to happen in Buffalo on Sunday, but I'd love a season sweep of the Donkeys.

Many people are SO convinced that the Donkeys are going to walk all over the Chiefs, but, I'm not convinced, and I'll believe it when I see it.

---

Part of me almost wonders if it would be better overall if they lost this week. It would take the pressure off of the idea of an undefeated season, and then the media would undoubtedly start saying "I told you the Chiefs arent good," giving the team some fire and motivation to go to Denver and destroy the Donks.

Average points teams give up

Tennesse 20.9

Oakland 21.4

Cleveland 22.4

Dallas 23.2

Philly 26.4

Houston 27.7

NYG 27.9

Jags 33

(average is 25.3625)

Did you calculate your scores with how the chiefs are scoring against teams and their average?
or were you just using defense in that calulation?

(not being a dick legit question)

Baltimore 21.1

Colts 18.7 (the two teams denver has faced differently then KC so far)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by doobs_05

Average points teams give up
(average is 25.3625)

Did you calculate your scores with how the chiefs are scoring against teams and their average?
or were you just using defense in that calulation?

---

No, I didn't but it wouldn't make much difference. Our opponents are allowing 25.3645 ppg and Chiefs are averaging 24.0 ppg, so the difference is only about 1 point per game. But in a hypothetical match-up against a specific opponent (the Broncos for example) other teams average points allowed aren't really relevant since those teams aren't involved in that particular game.

You would also need to look at how many points each of our opponents have allowed relative to every one of their opponents season averages (61 games at this point), but that gets far too complicated to deal with here. The Chiefs have played some good defenses and some bad defenses, so my guess is that with that large of a sample size, it would all "average out."

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by doobs_05

Average points teams give up

Tennesse 20.9

Oakland 21.4

Cleveland 22.4

Dallas 23.2

Philly 26.4

Houston 27.7

NYG 27.9

Jags 33

(average is 25.3625)

Did you calculate your scores with how the chiefs are scoring against teams and their average?
or were you just using defense in that calulation?

(not being a dick legit question)

---

I just KNEW that somebody was going to add that in. :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by doobs_05

I don't think KC scores over 30 against Denver

---

I too don't think that is very likely.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by doobs_05

I'll gladly eat crow if they do tho

---

Screw the crow! I don't care how many points we score against the damned donks....So long as it is 1 more point than they score.