stick with thigpen and have gray as second string and maybe huard as third. get rid of croyle all together
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stick with thigpen and have gray as second string and maybe huard as third. get rid of croyle all together
I'm not sold on the 2 top QBs, and i'm not sold on Thigpen either.
Here's how I look at it (as i've mentioned 500 times before):
-1st off...We can't go the Brodie Croyle route again (meaning we can't put all our eggs in the Thigpen basket).. Say all you want but Cleveland Browns fans know exactly what i'm talking about!
-2nd...If we don't take our franchise QB this year, how confident are we about pulling the trigger next year?? Everyone raves about Sam, Colt, and Tebow but they all come from Spread Offenses which creates ridiculous stats + Tebow will probably be converted to play another position.
-3rd...Are we confident we'll be able to land Sam Bradford w/ our 1st round pick???
- Lets say Thigpen sucks it up and we go 3-13, landing the 4th pick in the draft (using this years draft order).. If Bradford goes #1 we're left in the same position we are this year... (Do we reach for a QB or do we grab the best player available????...such as ILB Brandon Spikes or DT Terrance Cody...)
Let's say we reach for Colt McCoy in the 2010 draft and he sucks it up because he can't adjust to playing under-center...What will we do then??
There are too many IFs in the Draft, but I still feel if we're confident in one of the 2 young QBs this year, then we should pull the trigger so we'll have a head start (you know so we can at least see what we have for our future)...
If we don't draft a QB and Thigpen fails, then our 2009 season will go down the drain...But if we draft one, we'll at least have someone to learn the system for a year before we throw them in the fire...
If thiggy and our QBOTF both turn out to be studs...well, it's not a bad problem to have..
Dont worry, we wont be drafting a QB at #3~
Why does our QB have to be drafted with the #3 pick?
And JM, I know you already know everything, but contrary to your beliefs, we are not going to continue to suck!!
What can the Chiefs Expect to Pay the 3rd Pick in the NFL Draft?
http://cdn2.sbnation.com/profile_ima...08/TG_tiny.jpg by primetime 07 on Feb 16, 2009 11:45 AM CST in 2009 Draft
The 3rd pick in the draft in 2008, Matt Ryan's contract will likely cause the Chiefs problems.
via www.unlockedsports.comThe major downside to picking so high in the NFL draft is the money that's involved. The draft value trade chart you see floating around is largely considered outdated because it doesn't taken into account the increasing money paid to the top draft picks.
We'll use the tables below to determine approximately how much the Kansas City Chiefs can expect to pay the 3rd pick in the NFL draft this year.2006
PickPlayerLengthTotalAvg/YearGuaranteed1Mario Williams6$54 million$9 million$26.5 million2Reggie Bush6$52.5 million$8.75 million$26.31 million3Vince Young6$58 million$9.67 million$25.74 million4D'Brickashaw Ferguson6$37.5 million$6.25 million$17.9 millionHow important is guaranteed money? Look at the variation of the total value of the contract in the first three picks. Most of these players won't see this contract lived out. They'll either be released/traded or extended/restructured by the time the deal runs out which is why guaranteed money is so important.
2007
PickPlayerLengthTotalAvg/YearGuaranteed1JaMarcus Russell6$61 million$10.16 million$32 million2Calvin Johnson6$55 million$9.16 million$27.178 million3Joe Thomas5$42.5 million$8.5 million$23 million4Gaines Adams6$42 million$7 million$18.56 millionThe top 3 picks in the draft are very valuable. Take a look at the drop off from the 3rd to the 4th pick. 2006's 4th pick was nearly $8 million less in guaranteed money and 2007 was nearly $5 million less. Of course some of that depends on the length of the contract but the gap between the two picks may make it difficult in establishing a floor for the contract's guaranteed money.
2008PickPlayerLengthTotalAvg/YearGuaranteed1Jake Long5$57.5 million$11.5 million$30 million2Chris Long5$48 million$9.6 million$22.385 million3Matt Ryan6$72 million$12 million$34.75 million4Darren McFadden6$60 million$10 million$26 millionMatt Ryan got a hell of a deal. However, Jake Long got more guaranteed money per year so you can't necessarily look at this and say Ryan has a better deal. He's got more guaranteed money and available dollars to be earned, but Long's contract will get him to free agency/second contract quicker which is the goal.
There are two important numbers to focus on in these charts - length of the contract and guaranteed money.
Length
The trend we noticed last year was players giving in on the total money of the contract to shorten the length. This is very, very important because the goal of ANY player is to get to free agency as quickly as possible. These are certainly HUGE contracts but the second contract is where you really set yourself up.
For the Chiefs, I would prefer a 6 year contract, the maximum allowed, if we are picking a lineman. Offensive and defensive linemen have a lower bust-rate than quarterback and their failure doesn't necessarily devastate the future of the franchise like quarterback does.
If we're selecting a quarterback, I think I would prefer a 5 year contract...just in case. If a high first round quarterback pans out, then his second contract will be massive whether his rookie deal was 5 or 6 years. Examples include Ben Roethlisberger (2004 draft) who signed an 8 year, $101 million contract over a year ago and Eli Manning (2004 draft) and Phillip Rivers (2004 draft) who will both likely cash in on $100 million extensions this offseason.
But if that first round quarterback doesn't pan out then one less year to get him out of town will be essential in re-re-building.
The agent for the player the Chiefs select might be pushing for a 5 year contract as opposed to 6. This is because agents only get paid when the player signs a new contract. So, like the player, the agent wants to get to the second contract as quickly as possible as well.
When players switch agents it's usually a good sign that some contract negotiations are coming because said agent, like anyone else, wants to get paid.
Guaranteed Money
This is what these contracts really boil down to. With any player, there's no guarantee the team will get the production they paid for. If the player doesn't produce in his rookie deal, then he's not going to (necessarily) strike gold in his second contract.
That said, it's the job of the agent to secure as much guaranteed money for the player. Injury and a lack of production are a couple of the reasons that the player won't get another big contract.
Since all NFL contracts aren't fully guaranteed, coming at the player with the correct amount of guaranteed money is the golden ticket in contract negotiations.
The Matt Ryan factor
Matt Ryan was the 3rd pick in the draft last year so his contract will likely be the floor for the Chiefs negotiations.
At a premium position, he got a deal that averaged $5.79 million guaranteed per year. That's up from Joe Thomas' $4.6 million guaranteed per year in 2007 and Vince Young's $4.29 million guaranteed annual average.
Since Matt Ryan's guaranteed money was such a drastic leap from the previous year, the Chiefs will likely have quite the negotiation session. Agents simply will not accept less guaranteed money, on average, than the previous year at the same slot. Taking a less than market value deal is damaging to the agent's reputation and hinders their ability to sign clients in the future.
What can the Chiefs expect to pay?
We don't know yet whether the Chiefs 3rd pick will acquire a 5 or 6 year contract so let's base this off the important number - guaranteed money per year average.
My guess for the ceiling of guaranteed money, based on the previous three years is an even $6 million per year. This would put the Chiefs 3rd pick in line with Jake Long's guaranteed money last year on a 5 year contract - $6 million per year.
Using Matt Ryan's contract as the floor and my guess of $6 million guaranteed per year as the ceiling, this is what the Chiefs could be looking at paying in total guaranteed money this year.
LengthFloorCeiling5 Year$28.95 million$30 million6 Year$34.75 million$36 million
6 comments | 1 recs |digg_url = 'http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2009/2/16/760472/what-can-the-chiefs-expect';digg_title = 'What can the Chiefs Expect to Pay the 3rd Pick in the NFL Draft?';digg_skin = 'icon';digg_window = 'new'; http://www.chiefscrowd.com/forums/im...2009/02/21.jpg http://digg.com/img/badges/16x16-digg-guy.pngsb_nation249:What can the Chiefs Expect to Pay the 3rd Pick in the NFL*Draft? - Arrowhead PrideBuzz up!
QB's in the taken in the top 5 or even the 1st rd, will demand to much money and are not worth the risk.....
Whoa! I did not say we're going to continue to suck!
I'm just saying that we have a whole lot better chance of grooming a QBOTF if we can keep them upright. Unless we build our OL, we're just going to David Carr the poor sucker.
I was only taking about the first pick because the name of the thread is: "no qb for first pick."
Frankly, Nate Davis with pick #2 isn't a terrible idea. Even though Whitlock likes him (which is usually a kiss of death), he looks like the next Rothlisberger out there.
The question here was about who to pick in the 1st round, a QB or not. I never opined about the 3rd round at all - simply because this really isn't the thread for it.
It's my opinion that picking a LT in the first round, like Miami with Long last year, gives us the better long term and short term chance of success than trying to find OL help later in this draft. I think that waiting until later rounds and signing undrafted FAs to get OL help is the biggest reason we've done so poorly these past few years.
If we're looking to protect a young QB, we probably need 2-3 new starters on the OL. And I don't want to see our QBOTF pick go down in flames because he has a bunch of 2nd day picks trying to man the OL.
You can try to change the meaning of what I wrote, but it's in black and white. We can't keep putting off our OL problems forever. The Chiefs will never groom a decent QB without a solid OL to protect him. If we don't get that solid line, see Carr, David for the result.
[quote=kcmostwanted;118745]I'm not sold on the 2 top QBs, and i'm not sold on Thigpen either.
-3rd...Are we confident we'll be able to land Sam Bradford w/ our 1st round pick???
100% sure we will not, at least this year:D
Who said we were putting off our OL problem? We haven't been putting it off. Carl Peterson just thought he knew what he was doing when he got a bunch of random guys.
McIntosh kick-started at the end of last year, but that is way to late and unacceptable. Not to mention he is almost as fragile as Brodie.
I would go on about the rest of the guys the idiot brought in, but this isn't about the OL.
Absolutely not. No QB. There are very few QBs in the entire draft that are worthy of being drafted. Maybe 4-5. We should most definately sign of few of the undrafted and check them out during TC and the preseason.
It will be interesting to see what they do eventually do with our 3rd pick. Offense or defense? Maybe trade down. Lots of people seem to think they might try to get Matt Cassel. That IMO is ridiculous and not needed. We should know which way depending on what happens in the Free Agency.
I didn't really read this. I just saw the name Tebow. I just wanted to say Tebow should not even be mentioned with the others in that statement. He is not an NFL QB. He has A LOT to improve on next year if he seriously wants to play in the NFL. Accuracy and his release are the biggies he needs to work on. He is sure as heck not gonna be running all over the place in the NFL.
Sorry. A bit off topic. Just thought I'd say that. I'm not a huge fan of his. Plus everyone thinks he is amazingly good but he isn't.
I agree with alot of people here.
I don't think we should pick up a QB in the first round. And I do think Thigpen should be given a chance. I think as long as our defense can improve, Thigpen won't be pressured to try and score 20 points in the 4th quarter.
I assume Pioli will pick a QB in the later rounds. Similar to what he did with Tom Brady. In fact, there are more decent QB's out there than we realize.
OK pumpkin, no one is trying to change the meaning of what you wrote but here you have said the same thing with an explanation and it makes sense.
Here you sound like you are saying the O line is gonna suck. See the difference? I am not changing anything. You typed it.
How long has it been since we have had a stable QB situation? 3 years? i feel we need to stock pile QB's. Let Thigpen start and let Stafford hold the clipboard as we up grade the OL and work him in the offense. Sure Thigpen had a nice year last year. But one injury to him who do we have backing him up? "Look at me wrong i brake" Crolye? "Im scared behind that OL" Huard? Pioli will do the right thing i think and draft a QB.
Couple of things:
1) Trade down, trade down, trade down!!! Even if we are planning on going after Stafford or Sanchez I think you can say they both are pretty close when grading out. So why not trade down and get the one that drops? We could also get our MLB in Maualuga (this is what I would do) OR just go ahead and take which ever LT is left out of the Top 4. We really shoudl trade down if able.
2) I only want to draft a LT at 3rd if Monroe is there, I would be pissed if we took one of the Smiths or Oher that high and they end up being worse at LT then Albert. At least with Monroe we know he can play with or maybe a little better then Albert.
3) If Monroe is off the board and we can not trade down I have no problem going after Stafford or Sanchez. I would rather see us take Crabtree/Curry/or even stretch for Maualuga(Yes I think he will be that good for us), but if Pioli and Haley think Stafford or Sanchez grades out then lets see what they got!!!!
4) I have to throw this in: I would love the idea of Pioli getting on the phone with his good buddies up in Green Bay and work out a deal to send them LJ and ANY of our QB's(they can pick who ever they want hehe. Huard/Croyle/Gray/Martin) for Brian Brohm. The Packers get LJ and keep a Backup QB and The Chiefs might get our QOTF. It makes TONS of sense.
5) Cassel Sucks!!!!!!
I know drafting a QB 3rd overall is not the sexy pick this year and is not what I want to see happen, but I will be this first to jump on the bandwagon if Pioli picks apart Stafford/Sanchez and we really get a guy that takes us to the Super Bowl.
We also should draft Chase Patton in the 7th LOL GO MU
Where do you think this team would be if we were really serious about going after Matt Ryan last year? I dont think we would be looking for a QB for awhile.
We may not be looking for a QB, or we may. Ryan could very easily have gotten injured here, and most likely wouldn't have looked good at all.
The Falcons had a real running game, and a good bunch of blockers.
That was a team that was built for the purpose of taking care of a high profile QB. And Ryan lucked out.
But that is the chance you take. You either have the guts to go for a QB that is the Franchise or you dont. and form the looks of things around the NFL (steelers, giants, chargers, broncos). I would rather have a QB that can give us that chance to beat the top teams in the NFL.
Niether of the QB's in this draft are worth a #1 or # pick, even if they go that high. They arent matt ryan, they are david carrs and tim couchs~
If we don't draft at least one OL in the first couple rounds, or get some serious FA help, the OL will suck.
We moved to the spread in 2008 because our OL couldn't keep a QB upright in a pro set. What's the use of drafting a prototype pocket passer like Stafford or Sanchez and forcing them into a spread because our OL can't hack it?
How do we expect to keep a high dollar rookie passer healthy only by pumping a couple second day picks into the OL?
We dont have Dick Vermiel on our team anymore. As for Warner. No one but Dick knew about his ability. But i bet you that he didnt know that Warner would turn out like he did. Other wise he wouldnt have had him backing up Trent Green.
But that the big question now. Can Pioli and Haley find a QB? Maybe we have him in Thigpen. But that is remains to be seen.
I say any QB that could win a game with this team in '08 did a great job of overcoming horrible blocking, no running game, and an awful defense.
How many wins did Troy Aikman have in his first season?
One.
Clearly, he needed to be replaced immediately?
A QB doesn't win games. The team does. Thig was playing QB very well, on a terrible team. (Primarily due to coaching and personnel decisions.)
I agree w/ you but once again, you're writing Albert off w/ that comment because he's our LT. I believe that our biggest needs on the OL are C, RG and RT. Unless if you want to take a RT w/ the #3 pick. I've said many times in the past that this is a deep draft for OL which means that we can grab a quality RT in the 2nd and probably find a good C in the 3rd. Remember that drafting at the top of each round helps us out this year. The 3rd pick in the 2nd round is almost equivalent to a 1st round draft pick.
I'm not completely against grabbing another LT in the draft w/ our #3 pick but that means that we would have to move Albert to the right side, and I believe he is fully capable of playing the Left side...That's why I believe that a 2nd Round RT would be better for the Chiefs. Remember pre-draft how many experts had Albert rated as the 2nd best prospect behind J. Long??? Well I still believe that he has that potential so moving him to the right side would be a mistake when we haven't seen him play for more than 1 season.
If we grab the right pieces in FA regarding our D I think we can find great value in the Draft to fill our needs on the OL..since this draft is kind of weak on D.
I think in this scenario grabbing QBOTF wouldn't be a bad idea w/ the #3 pick.
Also, off subject but I don't agree w/ taking a OLB w/ the #3 pick. I'd rather take a shot at grabbing a QB if we have the opportunity. Franchise QBs come once in awhile, while good LBs come every year.
I'm hardly writing Albert off. We have plenty of open spots on the OL, and I'm not alone in suggesting that he'd be a better RT or RG than LT.
My big worry, probably unjustified with Pioli but still, is that we're going to do what we've done for the past three years and completely ignore our OL problems. I don't see any QB, especially a rookie, being successful with our current OL.
In a nutshell, we need a better OL before we start thinking about putting a rookie QBOTF under center. And I don't think we're going to get a much better OL only upgrading with 2nd day picks.
I have been for drafting a LT in the first round all along and moving Albert to RT. But if we are switching to a 3-4 I think you have to go with Raji. The guy is just to good to pass up. So then you would leave Albert at LT, draft a RT in the second round, and a C in the third.