Realize I never stated that Herm Edwards was capable of coaching .500 ball. He's significantly below .500 for his career. I just did the math...first 2 seasons add up well below .500 require one great season to overcome the average.
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With the chiefs trading Allen, don't be surprised if the defense takes a step back next season. I think we picked up some good players in the draft, but it's going to take time for them to get up to speed. Before the trade I was thinking that with Allen in the defense they will at least keep us in the game. But I'm not so sure now, unless Hali, Tank, Turk and Dorsey can put pressure on the QB our secondary will be exposed, especially at the CB spots. I was counting on the defense to keep us close and give the offense a chance to get up to speed, but it might be 2009 before we see results of our defensive draft picks and if that's the case then the offense is going to be playing catch up a lot and passing a lot as well. It would of been nice to have Allen alongside of Dorsey for a nice one, two punch. I just think we're going to miss Allen a lot more than what the Chiefs are letting on. :D
We are definitely going to be missing Allen, but I think the Chiefs can rebound under the leadership of the new coordinators.
My response to some of these thoughts:
Looking at the Chief's schedule, I think fans should expect a 6 win season. If the team finishes above that record, Herm Edwards should get real credit for getting a bunch of young players to play up to or above their potential very quickly. In order for that to happen, Croyle will have to step up and work out, Johnson will have to remain healthy, at least one member of the offensive line brigade (besides Waters, Albert & McIntosh) will have to step up beyond their potential and the chiefs will have to find a reliable number 2 receiver on the other side of Bowe (not to mention Bowe being able to shoulder the load of primary receiver). That's a lot of if's just on offense.
On the defensive side, Dorsey will need to play at a level so that he can replace Allen's pass pressure, or he needs to play at such a level that he allows Hali to fill that role (by giving Hali pure one on one matchups against team's LTs). Either Carr or Flowers will need to step up into a starting position at CB and the Linebacking core will need to continue to be able to carry a big load and a lot of different roles (look for Johnson to have a lot more sacks as the Chiefs will likely need to bring him on the pass rush off the left side to acceptable QB pressure).
Overall, there are less holes on Defense, but there are nevertheless question marks that could either workout or not.
If Herm has another 4-12 season, I think his future is doubtful. But if he has a 6-10 and there is significant improvement by the younger players, he's earned the right to take them into 2010.
As a last note: I'd say that while Herm may not be the best coach to have in the 4th quarter for the playoffs, his coaching style is exactly what the doctor ordered for a Chiefs roster with 31 fresh-out-of-college players on it. His work ethic, attitude, and love for the game will hopefully rub off in a big way on these young guys.
30th? No way. But a lot will depend on how the rookies pan out.