This isn't maximizing value and why the Chiefs are getting destroyed. Taking Wilson #1 overall isn't as good as taking Wilson #6 while gaining a couple more draft picks. I'm not saying it'll be a simple snap of the fingers to trade down, but those options need to be explored.
Originally Posted by Bike
It's way too early to zero in on one particular player. Perhaps after the bowl games, senior bowl, combine, etc. one of the QBs begins to separate himself from the rest of the pack.
All I was trying to do with my article is shine a bit more light on the QB issue than just pretending like Smith and Barkley were the only options. All these mock draft authors are copycats and you don't get a good sense of what these players actually are because everyone just copies what they saw on someone else's mock.
Mocks are fun to look at, but when they all say Geno Smith #1 when there's such obvious flaws about his game, it starts to get ridiculous. Once people really start their evaluations and get clues from front offices around the league, you're going to see the interweb mocks change drastically because none of these guys actually sit down and look at the players themselves.
Smith acts like he's Cam Newton and hasn't even accomplished anything other than beating a mediocre Texas team. Nobody thought Newton had character issues coming out of college either. Now, we know he's rubbing other players around the league raw with his diva attitude. But, if you think about it, it kinda makes sense... the guy DID have to go to JUCO before heading to Auburn. He doesn't have the right mind-set currently. I see a lot of that in Geno but with more "thug" thrown in.
I'm sorry, but I just don't understand the "just draft him" mentality." This isn't a knock on you, Bike and I don't mean to single you out. There are so many people who think like you (along with our current GM) that, if the player who's at the top of our draft board is there when our number is called, then we should just take him. I completely disagree. You have to have some kind of sense as to that kid's market value.
Let's say you go to the store with the intent to purchase a brand new TV, surround sound, and BluRay player. You have $3000 to spend. Are you going to spend all $3k on that TV? Of course not. You try to get the best deal possible to maximize the value of your budget and get everything you need to accomplish your goal. So, while there's definitely nice TVs to be had for $3k, you're not going to get the surround sound you want or the bluray player either. It's all about opportunity cost.
Opportunity cost is a basic economic principal that needs to be applied when we're talking about the draft. If you spend ALL your money on a TV, you can't use that same money to purchase the surround sound and the bluray player. The issue lies, however in market value. The market value for electronics is what we as consumers are willing to spend in cash for any particular piece of equipment based on supply and demand. What is the market value in the draft? The market value for any one particular player is where any given team is willing to pick said player.
If the draft were held today, Wilson would probably be pegged as a mid-late first round pick. According to the pundits, Wilson doesn't present anymore MARKET value than a late first. Obviously, if the Chiefs have Wilson as their target, they value Wilson more than the market does. However, the Chiefs are now in a position of strength where they can do a couple different things. They can draft Wilson and throw away all the remaining value between picks 1 and say, #20. They could continually sell their first round pick for whatever the market would bare (additional picks) for that pick until they felt they were right around the point where they were getting fair value for their selection (Wilson). They could also select a player other than Wilson at #1 overall and trade back into the first round with their 2nd round pick. They have a few different options.
The main point here is that it is vitally important to the sustainability of their future success that this franchise needs to start to find a way to maximize the value of their picks. Jackson at #3 overall and Poe at #11 were pretty big reaches that did NOT maximize the value of the picks the Chiefs had. If the Chiefs could've traded down to #15 or so for Jackson, that would've been maximizing their value. If they could've traded back another 7-10 spots for Poe, THAT would've maximized their value. It may not seem like a very big deal as long as you're getting the guy you want, but the gaps between where those guy were picked and where they SHOULD have been picked were worth somewhere in the range of an additional 3-4 extra second round picks... that's a pretty big deal considering the talent still on the board in the 2nd round. Imagine where this team would be if we had 3 or 4 more Brandon Flowers or Jamaal Charles'.
Geez, I talk too much. :lol:
If they don't like Foles, I'd be the first in line to take him. I've watched that kid since he played in Austin. That kid is legit.
Originally Posted by jap1
Thanks TX CHIEF for your time and effort on this great analasys.
I am not sold on any single qb prospect, or even for the first pick. I do believe it would be our best interest to trade, however its not going to be a big trade. There is just not enough value and need guys out there.
I think you are being a bit hard on Geno Smith. Sure he did a dumb thing, but if this was his norm there would be much more footage like this out there. The media loves this stuff and would be all over it.
Lots can change between now and draft day and there could be one or more of these guys step, or choke. But as it stands right now Geno, like him or not, appears to rise above the rest.
Now a question for you: If no one wants to trade, do we go qb, or should we go for Star or some one else. Qb is still the biggest need by far. Most here and everywhere would say Geno, or any QB is a reach at first.
On TJ at three and DPoe at eleven, we tried to trade on both, and no team showed any interest. Hindsite is 20 20. But what should we have done, Last year most here, (not me) thought NT was our biggest need.
Again great job!
I would draft Te'o. The Chiefs already have 3 young, high, first round picks on the D-line. McShay is the only person I see who even mentions Star as an option for the Chiefs at #1. That idea is so horrible, for so many reasons. With Smith, Powe, Pitoitua, and Bailey backing up the starters, I'm not sure how anyone could think we need ANOTHER top 5 pick on that D-line.
The Chiefs need to put someone next to DJ. Te'o would be my pick. There's a good chance that the 3rd or 4th best QB prospect in this draft will be there at #33. Hell, the 2nd best could be there as well. There's a case to be made for each of the top 6 QBs in this draft class. Drafting a QB is a crap-shoot anyway. As long as they could land one of those guys, I think I'd be ok with the draft.
I'd prefer Wilson, Glennon, Barkley, or Nassib. I just have the same feeling about Smith as I had about Pioli. There's not a ton to dislike about Smith. There wasn't too much to dislike about Pioli either. I just think Smith is not going to be the QB this franchise needs.
Originally Posted by texaschief
I agree with you on Star, but keep in mind Dorsey will be a free agent if we don't throw a lot of money at him. I've even read somewhere he is not likely to want to stay. Even without him we still dl is still not a huge need.
I like Teo as well and it would fill a big need, but we need at least 2 qb's. If we can't sign any in the fa market we will need to draft two in me opinion. I personally would love to see us draft two qb in the first three rounds. The chances of us getting a true starter would be much better. I think corner is the second biggest need, if we get Albert signed. We need several big FA signings to be able to compete next year.
It is tough to truly gauge our needs until FA. Dorsey is as good as gone in my opinion. He will want to move to a 4-3 anyway. We need to resign Albert and make it first priority. And I think it is paramount to get Bowe resigned. I know he is not Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald but whomever we bring in at QB, especially if its a rookie, they need a quality WR. And unfortunately as far as I am concerned he is truly the only one on the roster.
If he walks then we have to chase a free agent. I would rather have him.
We can not really say what our needs on DL/LB are either because we do not know if the new coach will stay in a 3-4 or go to a 4-3, if we switch we do not really need a LB but will need DL.
Bailey, Powe, Smith and Pitoitua seem to provide plenty of depth even if Dorsey leaves. If we weren't willing to spend good money to keep Carr, any top flight FA CBs out there are going to be too high for us to bring in anyway. I expect the defensive secondary to be a position of need going into the draft.
Where do you see that?!
Originally Posted by nigeriannightmare
Gets heckled and responds to being heckled equals mentally weak. Going from Heisman front runner to not even Heisman finalist equals mentally weak. Have you not read this article???? gives in depth analysis on the qbs and Geno smiths me first attitude which in no way shape or form will translate to leading an nfl franchise day one.
Originally Posted by AussieChiefsFan