Your conclusion of what you think Geno Smith IS, is flawed. Like I said before, your argument is that we should spend $10 on a bunch of bruised bananas when we could get a comparable bunch of bananas for much less. It's a losing argument and deeply flawed. If you agree that Geno Smith IS NOT Andrew Luck or RGIII, then your argument of "supply and demand" does not fit here. If there were a consensus "franchise QB" in this draft, your argument would be valid (so, at least you have that).
I would suggest you read up on utilization of resources... not to mention brushing up on your QB evaluations.
I never said the Chiefs are going to the SB if they draft Geno. That's ridiculous. I've stated over and over again that I want Geno Smith because he has the most upside of any QB in the draft, without question. Give him a chance and he could be elite, unlike the game-managers in FA that most on here are content with.
As far as the Chiefs, If they don't want to take Geno in round 1, I think the next best at the beginning of TD 2 is Zac Dysert. The more I watch him, the more I see things I like.
I should also point out that in terms of QB evaluation, I was one of the biggest Russell Wilson advocates last year. I really hoped the Chiefs took him w/ the Stephenson pick (he went one pick later).
You can question me all day long, and I've been wrong plenty of times. I'll gladly have it known that Geno is my #1 QB prospect, Wilson #2, Dysert #3, Nassib/Glennon/Barkley all in that next tier.
BTW, since you brought up supply and demand earlier, I thought I'd get your thoughts on the fact that there will be perhaps ONLY 2 legit franchise type LTs on the free agent market in Jake Long and Branden Albert. If the Chiefs choose not to re-sign Albert who suddenly has back issues, wouldn't it behoove the Chiefs to take the only legit franchise-type LT in this draft #1 overall (you know, since there would be a demand) instead of drafting just another name on a long list of above-average QBs who will be available to the Chiefs in '13?
I mean, if I could get a franchise LT and an above-average QB with my first 2 picks, wouldn't that be better than an above average QB and a LT (or any other player) who wasn't even taken in the first round of a weak draft class? Even if management agreed with your assessment of Smith, even YOU would have to agree that the difference between Geno Smith and whichever QB is available at #34 overall isn't anywhere NEAR the difference between the BPA at #1 and the BPA at #34. It's not even close. If Geno Smith is better than your other guy, Zac Dysert, it's probably only a head above... but the difference between Joekel and Barrett Jones or Lane Johnson is like head, shoulders, waist and knees difference. It's all economics again... opportunity cost at its finest. Why should I spend $5 on Fiji water if I'm hungry AND thirsty when I could spend $2 on Dasani and get a $3 hotdog as well? The difference between Fiji and Dasani isn't big enough to go without the hotdog if I have a demand for both. Allowing Albert to walk frees up cap space and provides an opportunity to upgrade at the position while still getting a nice, cool bottle of water in the 2nd round in the form of the best QB available.
It's amazing to me that you think a system QB who failed to put up NCAA record-breaking stats in a conference known for offense and weak defenses is worth the #1 pick overall. A QB who failed to LEAD his team to more than 2 victories over his final 8 games. Smith had one victory to hang his hat on ALL season and it was a last minute victory in Austin against an average Texas team with a defense ranked 77th.
Why are we suppose to be blown away by performances against Marshall (5-7, 123 ranked D), James Madison (D1-AA 7-5) , Maryland (4-8 56 ranked D), Baylor (8-5 113 ranked D), Kansas (1-11 112 ranked D) , and Iowa State (6-7 38 ranked D)?
When you look at film on Geno, do you take into account that the teams he beat had an average defensive rank of 88th? Did you know he LOST to teams with defensive rankings of 92nd (TT), 28th (KSU), 30 (TCU), 64th (OSU), 50th (OU), and 46th (SU)? Any average to above-average defense he faced shut him down... well, outside the juggernaut Iowa State of course.
Of the 4205 yards Smith passed for in 2012, 3,054 were accumulated against teams ranked 56 or worse on defense. That means, in the other 5 games out of the year where he had to play teams ranked 55th or better, he could only manage roughly 1/4 of his TOTAL OUTPUT. The best defense he played against (Kansas St. only 28th defensively) held your "franchise QB" to a pathetic 143 total yards with 2 INTs.
This kid never even SAW a good defense. He never faced a defense chalk full of NFL type talent like Alabama or Florida St. He never saw defenses like Florida or LSU who CONSTANTLY put pressure on the QB. We saw him give up 2 safeties in his bowl game against Syracuse who applied a little pressure, but you think that what you saw from Geno Smith winning against defenses statistically ranked 88th on average is enough to warrant the #1 overall selection?
A guy who never saw a really good defense and who was shut down by average ones... THAT'S your guy?
Can you explain why Geno Smith's 2012 season in a swing pass and screen offense against poor defenses in the Big 12 is better than Tyler Wilson's 2011 season in an NFL style offense in the SEC West with NFL style defenses? What has you so "fully convinced" that Smith's performance has him head and shoulders above Wilson as a "franchise QB" worthy of the #1 overall selection? I'm genuinely curious because your entire argument is based on your opinion that it's Geno Smith, and then everyone else is a GIANT step down from him.
You know what, I'm bored... Let's do an experiment. I typed in "2013 NFL draft board" into google. We'll look at the top 5 responses and see where they've got Geno.
CBS Sports has him ranked 11th in the draft.
Walter Football has him ranked 16th
ESPN/Mel Kiper- Smith is NOT RANKED in the top 25. In fact, Kiper has him ranked as the 3rd best QB. But, his top QB is ranked 24th... so let's say he's the best QB in the draft and rank him 24th.
NFL.com has him ranked 14th.
FFToolbox has him ranked 7th.
So, out of the top 5 google responses, we had ESPN, CBS, and NFL.com weigh in with 2 independent blogs to give Geno Smith an average player ranking of 14. Middle of the first round.
Now, let's assume each player is WORTH the value of the corresponding draft pick. Geno Smith would be worth 1100 points according to the NFL draft pick value chart: http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php
According to the same chart, the Chiefs' #1 pick is worth 3000 points. The difference between the 1100 points Geno is relatively worth and the 3000 points the Chiefs possess is a total of 1900 points. According to the value chart, if the Chiefs took Geno Smith #1 overall, it would be the same as if they took Smith with the 4th AND 14th picks. Would you spend the 4th AND 14th picks for Geno Smith? Let's just pretend that the team picking 14th in the first round is the team that will be picking 14th in every round (not likely, but let's pretend.) In order for that team to move from the 14th spot all the way up to the 1st spot, they'd have to give up their 14th pick (1100pts), their 46th pick (440 pts), 78th pick (200 pts), 110th pick (74 pts), 142nd pick (35 pts), 174th pick (21.8), plus a 2014 5th round pick just to make the math right. For those scoring at home, that's 7 picks to move up 13 spots.
Positional value and importance to any particular team does not mean they should just ignore value lost just because it fills a hole. Teams need to fill holes in the most efficient manner.
Let's do the same experiment but look at where those sources had Luke Joekel ranked:
CBS- Ranked #1
ESPN- Ranked #4
NFL- Ranked #1
FFToolbox- Ranked #1
So, the two most obvious paths the Chiefs could take are:
Chiefs spend $9M/yr or $10M/yr if franchised on Branden Albert
Chiefs spend $8M/yr or franchise Dwayne Bowe at $10M
Chiefs draft Geno Smith #1 overall
After spending so much money on Bowe and Albert, the Chiefs are close to tapped out as far as the cap is concerned and can't do anything else to upgrade the team.
Chiefs let Albert walk/save $10M/yr
Chiefs re-sign/franchise Bowe
Chiefs draft Joekel #1 at $4M/yr
Chiefs draft 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft in the 2nd round (assuming the solution isn't found before then).
The more you look at the situation, the more it becomes apparent that the best solution for the Chiefs is to draft the BPA at #1 who could fill/upgrade the 2nd most important position on the team while also saving $6M/yr in cap space instead of gambling the pick on a player like Geno Smith who everyone seems to disagree about. It's REALLY hard to argue that the Chiefs should take such an enormous risk on Smith when you look at the residual benefits of planning on taking Joekel in the draft and letting Albert walk. He's better and cheaper than Albert and if they're not 100% sold on Geno Smith as the second coming of Steve Young or Rich Gannon, the stars couldn't have aligned any better for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs may not have a GREAT option at the QB position in this draft, but they DO have a GREAT option at the 2nd most important position on the field. A GREAT option at the LT position is > a good option at the QB position... especially in a weak class that presents comparable talent in the 2nd round.
However, I still think the ideal scenario is for the Chiefs to trade down. But if they stay at #1 overall, Joekel makes too much sense to pass on.