From NFL Analysis
Smith was one of the game's hottest quarterback prospects after a sizzling early-season run saw him put up ridiculous numbers directing the Mountaineers' high-powered attack. Smith dazzled scouts with his arm strength, accuracy and touch while displaying exceptional poise in the pocket. However, Smith faltered down the stretch against the tougher defenses of the Big 12; scouts started to have concerns about his ability to find his secondary options in the route progression when opponents take away his primary receiver with blanket coverage. He struggled to consistently identify the open receiver in games against Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech, a trend that continued in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl against Syracuse. Although Smith completed 66.7 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and zero interceptions, he was sacked three times and repeatedly looked confused when the Orange took away his No. 1 option. As a result, Syracuse blew out West Virginia, 38-14.
Plan for success: To capitalize on Smith's outstanding skills as a quick-rhythm pocket passer, an NFL offensive coordinator would be wise to incorporate several spread concepts. Bubble screens, slants and various seam throws are staples of the Mountaineers' offensive package, so using those routes as a foundation should help make Smith comfortable. In addition, the utilization of a play-action vertical passing game from the shotgun would create the big-play opportunities that Smith feasted on while directing Dana Holgorsen's offense.
Pro comparison: Jason Campbell
Clearly his statistics have been inflated by coach Dana Holgorsen's high-octane passing attack, but make no mistake Smith is blessed with some intriguing traits that helped him shred a talented Clemson defense with 401 passing yards and six touchdown tosses -- each of which eclipsed Orange Bowl records.
Despite his gaudy statistics, there are some warts to Smith's game. He takes virtually every snap from shotgun, is inconsistent with his set-up and delivery, often throwing off his back foot and has only average accuracy, at this time, on deeper throws -- especially those that require touch.
Against the notoriously leaky secondaries of the Big 12 conference, Smith is eye-popping statistics this season, perhaps earning himself all-conference, All-American and perhaps even Heisman consideration, but he does have mechanical issues to work on.
I'm sure he'll be on his best behavior at these events.
Originally Posted by AkChief49
Yeah, this def doesn't soun like a number 1 pick, an honestly to me not even a first rounder. We don't need to waste our pick in the next Jasin Campbell. I'd rather stick with Cassel another year (which I don't really want to do) vs waste our puck on a qb that lock onto his number 1 receiver and can't go thru his progressions. I hope we get the qb right regardless of who we take and from where.
Originally Posted by N TX Dave
132 posts in this thread... mostly about Geno Smith and after having read most of the posts, both good and bad on Smith, I'm pretty confident that Smith won't be the selection if the Chiefs hold onto the #1 pick. If we armchair GMs can find this many problems with Geno Smith, I'm confident that the Chiefs franchise have enough resources to logically surmise that Geno Smith is NOT worth the #1 overall pick... no matter how bad we need a QB.
As our GM Dorsey said when he was asked about a QB #1 overall a couple days ago, "I think there comes too steep of a price." I take two things away from this statement:
1. Dorsey seems to acknowledge the fact that team do, indeed reach in the draft to fill glaring holes on their teams as Ryfo suggests. Although I didn't acknowledge the point Ryfo was trying to make, it was well received. I realize teams reach to fill needs. I saw it first hand when Pioli took Jackson #3 overall and then again when he took Baldwin with the anticipation of replacing Bowe and then again when he took Poe just this last year... I get it. However...
2. The second thing I took away from Dorsey's statement was that he understands the point that I was trying to make... and it's that even if a player happens to fill a need, there is a point where a player becomes too expensive. In the draft, picks are the currency... in free agency, it's money and cap space. Just because a player fills a need in free agency, it doesn't mean you spend the majority of your resources on that player.
You need to find the best way to utilize your resources and spending 75% of your draft value on a player who doesn't deserve it is an EXTREMELY poor investment. The Chiefs have roughly 4000 points to spend in the draft and if they pick 1st, they'll spend 3000 of those points on whoever they take plus $4M in cap space each year... How ANYONE can think Geno Smith is worth that kind of investment is just mind-boggling to me.
A player of Andrew Luck's caliber is worth that kind of investment, but there is a dramatic difference in what is expected from Andrew Luck and what is expected from Geno Smith. Ask yourself if you honestly think the return on investment will be the same for the Chiefs with Geno Smith as it will be for Indy and Andrew Luck. If you don't think Smith offers Andrew Luck upside, why on earth would you spend the same amount for a lesser player? It doesn't make sense.
However, if you desperately need a QB (like the Chiefs do), but there isn't one worth the price at #1, it would make more sense to find a way work yourself into a position where taking a QB is worth the investment. It's like buying a car. Once you've spent the money, it's spent. Players, like cars, are depreciating assets. They may not lose half their value as soon as they put their cleats on, but they have a limited shelf life. Just like vehicles, you need your players to be worth the investment AND serve the purpose for which you pay a premium. If your purpose is strictly gas mileage, a Chevy Volt would be your best option... the problem is that we only have Corollas to choose from. We don't need to pay the price of a $40k Chevy Volt (Andrew Luck) if we're only going to get the benefits of an $18k Toyota Corolla (Geno Smith).
That's a HORRIBLE purchase. The Chiefs need to find a place in the draft where they're paying the price of what the players are worth. What the good teams in the league do, is pay a price of LESS than what the players are worth and maximize their assets. Is it any wonder that a team like the Chiefs who consistently over pay in the draft is one of the worst teams in the league? Now, at least half the fan base is advocating that the team keep overpaying for a guy like Geno Smith as if filling the QB position will somehow lead this franchise out of the darkness instead of good, sound, business and economic principals coupled with heavy investment in the scouting department.
At some point, people need to understand that success isn't delivered by players as much as it is delivered by scouting, sound economic principals, and good coaching. I think that for the first time since Vermeil, this team has a good coaching staff.
Clark Hunt seems to be a very successful business man. Hopefully, we'll start applying some of those principals to the Kansas City Chiefs franchise, because for the last 10-12 years, this franchise has been run into the ground... not by the Matt Cassells and Larry Johnsons of the world, but by the Carl Petersons and Scott Piolis who made poor business decisions including poor investments (Larry Johnson, Matt Cassell), poor draft picks (Sylvester Morris, Ryan Sims, Tyson Jackson), and poor trades (Scott Fujita and Matt Cassell) just to name a few. As great as some of the players have been for the Chiefs over the tenures of the last 2 GMs (including a couple good QBs), the fact remains that the Chiefs haven't seen a Super Bowl in 50 years.
It's not about the players... it's about the front office and coaching staff maximizing the value of their assets and providing a clear and successful direction for the franchise as a whole.
Mock Draft 1.1
Release Tyson Jackson
Let Dorsey Walk
Let Albert Walk
Free Agent Signings:
WR- Gregg Jennings
TE- Jared Cook
OG- Andy Levitre
LB- Phillip Wheeler
Trade 2nd round pick to Minnesota who target the best QB available for picks 52 and 83 (3rd rd).
Trade pick 52 to the Eagles for QB Nick Foles.
LT Luke Joekel Texas A&M
The Chiefs replace Branden Albert with a less expensive upgrade in Luke Joekel. They get better value with this pick than if they had decided to take a QB #1 overall. Joekel fits into a line that boasts Jon Asamoah, Rodney Hudson, Andy Levitre, and Eric Winston with depth provided by in Stephenson and Allen.
LB Khaseem Greene Rutgers
He's a play-making, game changing LB who was also the back-to-back Big East defensive Player of the year. Greene had arguably the best junior and senior seasons of ANY Big East player. It's unknown as to which flavor of the 3-4 defense we'll be running, but it's a pretty good bet that we'll need LB help no matter what. One Derrick Johnson, one of the great values Greene offers is his versatility and ability to be extremely useful in ANY type of defensive scheme.
3a. (from Vikings)
QB Tyler Bray Tennessee
Tyler Bray is arguably the most talented QB in the 2013 crop. He's foregoing his senior year at Tennessee where he would probably be better served in his development. Bray is a great draft-and-develop prospect who would probably benefit greatly from sitting for a couple seasons to learn Andy Reid's system. The only problem I see with this pick is that Bray is as close to a statue in the pocket as there could possibly be and there haven't been too many of those drafted by Reid. But this is MY mock and I think Bray could be a good pick for the Chiefs if they can protect him.
3c. (compensation for Carr)
S Bacarri Rambo Georgia
The Chiefs need some stability next to Eric Berry. Rambo is a ball-hawking FS that would fit perfectly next to Berry... and let's be honest... that's a badass football name.
RB Marcus Lattimore South Carolina
The Chiefs have decent depth behind Charles and this pick is probably superfluous, but c'mon... the best running back in this class is still on the board in the 4th round. There's very little downside to this selection. Yes, he's a risk having had 2 knee surgeries in the past 2 seasons. Gotta couple names for you though: Willis McGahee and Frank Gore. Both of those guys were in the same boat and have had pretty successful NFL careers. I wouldn't consider this player too much of an injury risk considering the circumstances that occurred to cause his injury. Lattimore is 6'0, 232 lbs and could essentially give the Chiefs a Jamaal Charles/Adrian Peterson 1-2 punch for the foreseeable future. Talk about a change of pace back. Can you imagine taking a beating from Lattimore for 6 to 8 plays and then chasing Charles 40 yards and then getting hit in the mouth from Lattimore the next play? ...wow.
DB Tyrann Mathieu LSU (Sat out a year)
Off the field issues should not scare anyone away from top 5 talent in the 5th round. We need another play-maker in the secondary and you couldn't ask for a better one than the "Honey Badger" in the 5th round. (**may be worth a higher pick as we get closer to the draft)
WR Ryan Swope Texas A&M
Swope has been A&M's go-to receiver when the Aggies have needed plays to be made. The kid has great hands, runs great routes, and is a fast-twitch player. The small, white WR will undoubtedly draw Wes Welker comparisons. Andy Reid's offense has a serious dependency on great route-runners with good hands... check and check.
WR Marquise Goodwin Texas
Olympic athlete with elite speed and play-making ability. Sounds like a good WR option to throw in the mix at WR, KR, and PR.
Assuming the players are available, I really like the first 6 picks. The Chiefs will have a gluttony of WRs if they re-sign Dwayne Bowe, so I could be persuaded to take other players in the 6th and 7th rounds. I just think that when you get that deep in the draft, finding play-makers should be the priority and not necessarily trying to find players to plug holes.
I think trading away Jarrod Allen was horrible also
May need to add Tyler Wilson to the top of the draft. I don't think there's anyway Tyler Wilson gets to the 2nd round or even close enough to the 2nd to trade back into the 1st to grab him.
I'd be alright with taking him with the 1st pick.
Originally Posted by texaschief
I like Wilson better than Smith, but unless something big happens between now and the draft, I still think a QB at #1 is a stretch.
Originally Posted by Three7s
Tyler Wilson Vs Geno Smith - Arrowhead Pride
Another interesting bit of information in comparing the top two QBs in the draft.