Titans/Jets and the Chiefs
I have the ticket. I usually record the game of the Chiefs' next week's opponent. This week's game was obviously the Titans/Jets game. I couldn't wait to watch this game tonight (for obvious reasons).
Let me start off by saying that I acknowledge that I was wrong about Geno Smith. Geno is not a younger version of Alex Smith as I had argued earlier this spring based off career numbers... Geno is much worse than that. The Titans do NOT have much of a pass rush but Geno just could not make any good decisions and their O-line made the Titans look MUCH better than they actually are. 4 turnovers (almost 4 more) and sacked 5x (one sack SHOULD'VE been a safety after retreating 15 yards and another was turned into a strip 6). Again, the Titans are NOT a good pass rushing team.
No, Geno is not a younger version of Alex... he's some kind of hybrid of Vince Young, Matt Cassel, and Mark Sanchez. Geno finished the day with a 7.8 QBR and owns a 65 QBR (before today) on the season. The only 2 QBs worse than him this year no longer have a job (Freeman/Weeden). He holds the 2nd worst comp % (before today), wedged right between Freeman and Weeden. BUT his yards per attempt rank 9th in the league at 7.85 which, I guess means he's better than Tom Brady who sits worst in the league at 5.5... well, never mind because he also leads the league in INTs (8)... and that's also not including multiple fumbles.
It really is too bad that Tim Tebow isn't still around... at least Geno would have some competetion for worst player in the league.
"... and that's all I have to say about that" - Forrest Gump
Now, about the Titans. There is NOTHING about the Tennessee Titans that strikes fear in their opponent's heart. Locker wasn't all that great to begin with, but now they've lost their starting QB. Shut down Chris Johnson and force Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat you. The Titans, much like the Chiefs have feasted on their turnover ratio. They have yet to turn the ball over this season. Pretty impressive 4 games in. Stats aren't updated yet, but I think the Chiefs are sitting at +10 in TO dif. while the Titans are at +9. They've beaten 0-4 Pittsburgh (-11), lost in overtime to Houston (-4), Beat SD (-3), and beat the Jets (-10). The Chiefs have beaten Jax (-4), Dallas (+3), Philly (-2), and NYG (-9). Both teams are practically winning the same way.
However, there are a few differences to these two teams. Tennessee has the 29th ranked offense that will have to square off against a Chiefs defense that is a top 5 unit that is only giving up 10pts/gm and leading the league in sacks... and they'll have to do it with their backup QB.
That's not to say the Titans' defense is horrible. But it's not like they were playing elite offenses like those in the NFC East, either. Todd Haley in Pittsburgh... we know exactly what kind of offense THAT is (28th in yards, 30th in pts). They lost to the only "good" offense they played (Houston 10th yards/16th pts). San Diego is mid pack and NYJ is bottom 3rd. Counter that with Chiefs opponents like Philly who is 2nd in yards and 5th in points or Dallas who is top 10 in both categories as well, and you see a Chiefs defense that has been tested. The Giants are bottom quarter and the Jags are dead last, so take that as you will.
The Chiefs offense is right at league average after the Giants game. They're not going to blow out the the Titan's defense. You can expect a similar performance to what we saw against Dallas. The key to this game is going to be turnovers. I know that's a pretty big key to every game, but for the Chiefs and Titans, it's even more important because that is how both teams have been winning. Can the Titans' offense with back QB Fitzpatrick score enough on a top ranked Chiefs defense if the Chiefs aren't turning the ball over? We've seen the Chiefs score against a good Dallas defense a couple times. The Giants don't have a horrible defensive unit either. The Jets have a really good defense but Geno Smith kept putting them in bad situations and made the game look much worse than it actually was for the Jets defense. Reminded me a lot of what we saw from the Chiefs last season. QB just couldn't stop turning the ball over and just killed the defense. Houston has a great defense as well and the Titans took them to overtime. The Titans have the 29th ranked offense, but they can move and score when they get an opportunity. A big question for them is who's going to be their QB?
Next Sunday, you're going to see a league average Chiefs offense against a top 10 Tennessee defense. You're also going to see a league bottom third Tennessee offense with a new QB against a top 3 Chiefs defense. Again, nothing on that Titans team strikes fear in your heart. Stop Chris Johnson on offense and know where the best safety in the league is on their defense and you can pretty much dictate what you want to do. Going into next Sunday, I EXPECT the Chiefs to win. I was more worried about the last 3 games than I am about the Titans. I don't see Alex Smith and this offense giving the Titans turnovers to prey on. But I also don't see the Titans giving the Chiefs any gifts either. So when you match up offenses v. defenses, I think the Chiefs have a very large advantage.
Take a look at that schedule, Chiefs fans. Things don't get any easier the rest of the season. Oakland is playing well, Houston is always good. Cleveland is suddenly worth noticing. Playing in Buffalo always sucks for the Chiefs. Then Denver, SD, Denver isn't something to look forward to. As good as things may look right now, don't expect the Chiefs to just roll through their schedule and not have any issues. The offense is looking better each week and if the defense can stay healthy, things could get very exciting, but the Chiefs play good teams the rest of the season. Make no mistake.