This has to be one to the most informative and logical threads I have ever read here.
Straight talk, no thrash talking, no "I hate Herm" comments, no silly jokes.
All star thread!!!
Printable View
This has to be one to the most informative and logical threads I have ever read here.
Straight talk, no thrash talking, no "I hate Herm" comments, no silly jokes.
All star thread!!!
I was reading over this again and saw something..
under Qb's.. what about ingle martin? they did resign him already this offseason. Now, that might not mean anything, but maybe it says they already have the third QB and both huard and croyle are out~
My opinion? We have the following starters on the Chiefs who are playing at a Pro Bowl (or pretty close) level:
Waters
Tony G.
Bowe
Colquitt
We have the following players who look very solid and NFL worthy at their positions:
Albert
Carr
Flowers
Pollard
Thigpen
Bradley
We have the following players who have looked NFL worthy but who underachieved at their positions this past season:
DJ
LJ
Hali
We have the following players who have question marks, and for whom it's too early to say:
Dorsey
Connor Barth
Kevin Robinson
We do not have NFL worthy starters at the following positions:
C
RG
RT (assuming Albert stays at LT)
2DT
RDE
MLB
ROLB
FS (Morgan isn't a FS, he's a natural SS)
We have decent depth at TE, RB, SS, and CB.
We are probably losing LJ this offseason, either by trade or by cut, so we'll need a big back to replace him. I'm assuming Tony G. stays and Waters doesn't retire.
Going into 2009, we should upgrade at the following positions:
2QB (late round rookie)
3WR
RB
C
RG
RT
2LG (Waters eventual replacement)
RDE
2DT
ROLB
MLB
FS
KR/PR
Good job Tex.
For FA/D for OL, DE, and LB, there are a lot of scenarios the Chiefs can go with.
LB- D-Aaron Curry 1st or Clint Stintim 2nd
FA- Dansby, Vilma, Suggs
OL- D- Oher/Monroe/Smith 1st, Mack/Beatty/Britton/Robinson 2nd, Luigs/Caldwell/Johnson 3rd
FA- Jason Brown/Matt Birk
DE- D- Brian Orakpo 1st, Michael Johnson 2nd(recently his stock has dropped and more mocks have him going to the chiefs in the 2nd)
FA- Peppers/Suggs
As you can see, there are a lot of options. Most limited option is at OT if one isn't drafted in the 1st. Beatty or Britton most likely won't make it to the 2nd round
My main areas of concern:
3 OL, 1 DT, 3 LB.
Thats only 7 guys and we need help in other areas I know, but I would start here.
Ok, so if there's a tentative agreement that the positions of need are RDE, ROLB, MLB, #2 WR and C (excluding JM's opinion of drafting and or signing an entirely new team :D), then the next step needs to be identifying the top 5 PLAYERS in this year's draft. Going into the 2009 draft, who will be worth a top 3 pick? Which player is the SUREST bet to become a GREAT player?
Teams get in trouble when they try to draft for need early in the first. If I'm Pioli, I'm taking the best player on the board at #3 whether it's an OT, WR, RB or CB. I enjoy putting together mock drafts just as much as anyone, but the biggest reason mocks like Kiper's and McShay's hardly ever turn out is because a lot of their predictions are based on team needs. I'm trying to get away from that approach. It's easy to say, "we need a DE, or LG or LB, so let's take the best available." The problem with that is that players like Orakpo or Maualuga don't represent the best value at that #3 pick.
It just so happens that this year is a horrible year for the Chiefs to be picking in the top 3 because of all their positions of need, only one player could be worth that #3 pick and that's OLB Aaron Curry. Now, if there were players available at #3 that could fill positions of need, then yeah, that would be great for the team to be able to get a guy like that. But in order for the Chiefs to maximize their benefit of that #3 pick, they need to take the best player on the board.
So, like I said, the next step is going to be identifying the best 5 players in this year's draft. As of Feb. 8th, my list looks like this: (not draft order)
1. OT-Eugene Monroe
2. OLB-Aaron Curry
3. WR-Michael Crabtree
4. CB-Michael Jenkins
5. RB-Chris Wells
So, with this being our next step, who is your top 5 list?
To be fair, I only thought we needed new starters at RB (because LJ is pretty much gone), C, RG, RT, RDE, 2DT, ROLB, MLB, and FS. Or 9 starting spots. My bet is that Pioli does upgrade these spots, either through FA or the draft.
The more I think about it, I think the Lions use their second 1st rounder to trade for Cassel or to pick Josh Freeman, meaning they pick Andre Smith at #1. Which means Eugene Monroe goes #2. So who do we pick at three, assuming no one is stupid enough to trade up?
God help me, Curry is the best value at that spot. I loathe the idea of picking a LB at 3 when we have an immediate need to upgrade our OL and DL, but Oher is dropping like a stone this draft, it's too high for Maualuga, and we'd be nuts to pick a WR given all of our other problems. There's no way Pioli picks Wells or Jenkins.
Of course, we're assuming Pioli doesn't grab Stafford.
My top 5 players:
1. OT - Monroe
2. OT - Andre Smith
3. WR - Crabtree
4. LB - Aaron Curry
5. NT - BJ Raji
I dont think Beanie Wells is top 5 material only because of his injury history. On a running back any lower body injury can take years off a career.
I dont really know much about Michael Jenkins.
At the Senior bowl, BJ Raji looked like a man among children, usually a good sign for defensive lineman.
What I think will happen:
1. Detroit - Smith
2. St Louis - Monroe
3. KC - Curry
4. Seattle - Crabtree
Detroit will go after Cassel like JM said, but he will take an offer from Minnesota because they have almost all the pieces to go to the show. They will go with an OT and hope Sanchez is there when they pick again in the 1st.
St Louis will take either an OT or Crabtree.
That leaves us ... I dont think the OT left will be worth it for us to take at #3. We have to assume we cannot trade down. Crabtree is too much of a luxury with our other needs. That really leaves Curry as the only pick worth it at #3.
I think a lot of what happens with the top two picks will depend on what happens in FA/trades, and those may seriously affect us.
I think the top 3 OTs in this draft could be interchangeable. Between the two Smiths and Monroe, the top OT in the draft could change its name a couple times before late April arrives. So, even if the first two teams took an OT, that third OT could still represent the best value.