Not to look ahead, but I think (please correct me if I am wrong) if we lose to the Chargers in two weeks and both of us finish at 11-5, they win the division.
According to NFL.COM, here are the tiebreakers in case of a division tie.
(The NFL is nothing if not thorough. It would be something if it ever came down to a coin toss.)
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best net points in common games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss
Currently, the Chargers and Chiefs are both 1-2 versus the division. If we lose to the Chargers we split in head-to-head but lose out because we would be 3-3 in the division and they would be 4-2 (provided we both win out).
For what it is worth, the Chiefs and Chargers have 14 common opponents on the schedule. Currently, the Chiefs are 4-4 in those games and the Chargers are 6-3 (Chargers have one uncommon opponent - the Bengals - remaining). Chiefs are screwed by having lost to two teams (the Texans and Colts) who the Chargers beat.
This becomes important if we should lose to the Chargers but then they lose another divison game, while we lose a non-division game. Now we are both 10-6, 1-1 and 3-3. However, in this scenario we are screwed because the non-division game would have to be against a common opponent (thats all we have left) and so we wind up with a common opponent record of 7-5 while the Chargers would be 8-4. Obviously, if we both lose to a division opponent it keeps us a game back, there so nothing changes in that scenario (we're 2-4, they are 3-3)
However, now for the good news, if the Chiefs beat the Donks this week and the Chargers in two weeks, it would take a virtual melt-down for us not to win the division. Reason being that we would now own a 2-0 record over the Chargers (the #1 tie-breaker) meaning they would have to overtake us in the standings while we have a two game lead (we'd be 9-4 and the Chargers 7-6). In this case, we'd have to lose the next three and they'd have to win the next three, which seems doubtful.
Such a scenario would potentially bring the Raiders (currently 5-6) into play, but looking at this has given me such a headache that I am going to wait to see what they do to see if they will even be relevant (since I suspect they won't).