We need to beat the Chargers to win the division

**wilqb16** · 11-30-2010, 09:35 PM

Not to look ahead, but I think (please correct me if I am wrong) if we lose to the Chargers in two weeks and both of us finish at 11-5, they win the division.

According to NFL.COM, here are the tiebreakers in case of a division tie.

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

(The NFL is nothing if not thorough. It would be something if it ever came down to a coin toss.)

Currently, the Chargers and Chiefs are both 1-2 versus the division. If we lose to the Chargers we split in head-to-head but lose out because we would be 3-3 in the division and they would be 4-2 (provided we both win out).

For what it is worth, the Chiefs and Chargers have 14 common opponents on the schedule. Currently, the Chiefs are 4-4 in those games and the Chargers are 6-3 (Chargers have one uncommon opponent - the Bengals - remaining). Chiefs are screwed by having lost to two teams (the Texans and Colts) who the Chargers beat.

This becomes important if we should lose to the Chargers but then they lose another divison game, while we lose a non-division game. Now we are both 10-6, 1-1 and 3-3. However, in this scenario we are screwed because the non-division game would have to be against a common opponent (thats all we have left) and so we wind up with a common opponent record of 7-5 while the Chargers would be 8-4. Obviously, if we both lose to a division opponent it keeps us a game back, there so nothing changes in that scenario (we're 2-4, they are 3-3)

However, now for the good news, if the Chiefs beat the Donks this week and the Chargers in two weeks, it would take a virtual melt-down for us not to win the division. Reason being that we would now own a 2-0 record over the Chargers (the #1 tie-breaker) meaning they would have to overtake us in the standings while we have a two game lead (we'd be 9-4 and the Chargers 7-6). In this case, we'd have to lose the next three and they'd have to win the next three, which seems doubtful.

Such a scenario would potentially bring the Raiders (currently 5-6) into play, but looking at this has given me such a headache that I am going to wait to see what they do to see if they will even be relevant (since I suspect they won't).

**OPLookn** · 12-01-2010, 12:00 PM

Everyone is looking past Denver saying well they thrashed us out there and we're at home so we'll beat them. We need to concentrate on using and abusing some donkeys. I'm talking oregon trail style here....going 40 miles in a day on quarter rations and burying little timmy on the side of the road because he's been walking for 10 days straight.

Let's focus on this Sunday!

**N TX Dave** · 12-01-2010, 12:11 PM

Originally Posted by OPLookn

Everyone is looking past Denver saying well they thrashed us out there and we're at home so we'll beat them. We need to concentrate on using and abusing some donkeys. I'm talking oregon trail style here....going 40 miles in a day on quarter rations and burying little timmy on the side of the road because he's been walking for 10 days straight.

Let's focus on this Sunday!

Yes we need to take it one game at a time if we lose this week it won't matter what we do next week. I am sure Todd is preaching that same thing this week I do know he wants to beat McDaniels bad and I would not be surprised to see him not call the dogs off I don't care how much we are up. When someone laughs at a concussion to an opposing player that is pretty bad, that has no place in the sport. I just hope we

and

**sdcsp95** · 12-01-2010, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by chiefnut

I think we finish 11-5, only loss to sd while the chargers finish 10-6 w/only loss to den. after we put a thrashing on den to avenge that dismal loss earlier, sd will look past them and den will be stoked to get them at home and bounce back from the humiliation at ARROWHEAD.

2nd scenario they too trounce den but the bungles play spoiler w/nothing to lose and again look to be an easy win surprise the chargers.

The Chargers play the Broncos the last week of the season. IF we (the chargers) have a chance to win the AFCW in the final week vs Denver. I don't see us "Overlooking" Denver.

**wilqb16** · 12-01-2010, 01:59 PM

Originally Posted by OPLookn

I'm talking oregon trail style here....going 40 miles in a day on quarter rations and burying little timmy on the side of the road because he's been walking for 10 days straight.

Let's focus on this Sunday!

LOL...I agree completely that we need to focus on beating the Donks (I am sure Haley isn't letting the crew forget the beating we took a couple weeks back). However, it is interesting to look at the scenario in two weeks. In a sense, if we beat the Chargers, this game against Denver doesn't matter as much (just from a factual standpoint) because we still only need to the win 2 out of 3.

I also wonder how much of a mind game Haley's not shaking hands with McDaniels may have been...sort of adds fuel to the fire to keep the Chiefs focused...

**matthewschiefs** · 12-01-2010, 02:40 PM

Originally Posted by OPLookn

Everyone is looking past Denver saying well they thrashed us out there and we're at home so we'll beat them. We need to concentrate on using and abusing some donkeys. I'm talking oregon trail style here....going 40 miles in a day on quarter rations and burying little timmy on the side of the road because he's been walking for 10 days straight.

Let's focus on this Sunday!

Us winning the AFC west can only start with us beating Denver. If we lose Sunday I don't think that there is any way that we are able to make the playoffs. WE HAVE TO BEAT THE DONKEYS.

**chiefnut** · 12-01-2010, 02:48 PM

Originally Posted by sdcsp95

The Chargers play the Broncos the last week of the season. IF we (the chargers) have a chance to win the AFCW in the final week vs Denver. I don't see us "Overlooking" Denver.

THAT is the perfect scenario, undefeated in nov/dec, easy pickins the last week to win the division, against a team that looks absolutely pathetic, can't ask for a better chance for the broncs . that's how they beat us, YOU"RE NEXT!!!

**okikcfan** · 12-01-2010, 04:27 PM

The Chargers play the Raiders on Sunday, then KC, SF, Bengals and last the Bronco's. At the rate the Chargers are playing, besides the Chiefs game the rest are winable. Now the Chiefs play the Bronco's on Sunday then the Chargers, Rams Titans and last of all the Raiders. If we beat the Chargers, and the (Chiefs Will) then it's over for the Chargers. Either way we, for what we have, we have done very well this season and I for one am pleased with the results.

**wilqb16** · 12-01-2010, 09:26 PM

Originally Posted by matthewschiefs

Us winning the AFC west can only start with us beating Denver. If we lose Sunday I don't think that there is any way that we are able to make the playoffs. WE HAVE TO BEAT THE DONKEYS.

Actually, if we lose to the Donkeys this Sunday but beat the Chargers and win out. We would would beat the Chargers outright with a record of 11-5 to the Chargers 10-6 mark.

Actually, we could lose to the Donkeys, beat the Chargers and lose one more and would still win the division. In this scenario we wind up tied with the Chargers at 10-6, but win the division by virtue of our 2-0 record against them.

Having said that, I think we have to beat the Donkeys not for mathematical reasons but for psychological ones. Losing the 2nd one to the Donks at home would really hurt our mojo. On the other hand, going into San Diego, on a 3-0 run and having just retalliated against the Donks is about as good as it gets...