A Deeper Look Into Matt Cassel, and How He Compares w/ the League

[Ryfo18]

There has been a lot of debate regarding Matt Cassel recently. Last year, I was as big a supporter as anyone, defending him as often as possible. This year, I have changed my tone after watching him play. I have my reasons, but I am doing this study solely out of curiousity, and even I don't know the results as I write this post. I just have the data compiled into a spreadsheet (courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com).

Three of the common arguments we hear are this:

1.) Matt Cassel is not accurate enough.
2.) Matt Cassel is cursed by dropped passes.
3.) Matt Cassel is always under too much pressure to succeed.

The data I have in front of me is simply 4 statistics for each team:

1.) Drops
2.) Pass Attempts (when a pass was actually thrown)
2.) # of dropbacks where the quarterback saw pressure.
3.) Total # of Dropbacks

From these, it's easy to determine two percentages for every team:

1.) The percentage of passes dropped (Drops/Attempts)
2.) The percentage of times the quarterback faces pressure (Pressures/Dropbacks)

Here's what I have found...

The league average for percentage of passes dropped is 6.12%. The low is Buffalo (3.42%) and the high is St. Louis (9.04%). The Chiefs are in fact above average in drops at 7.61% (21 drops in 276 attempts). From a precentage standpoint, this is the 5th worst in the league. So we can without a doubt say, the Chiefs drop more passes than the rest of the league, on a per attempt basis.

As far as pressures. The league average is that a quarterback will face pressure 32% of the time. The low is Tennessee (17.9%) and the high is Philadelphia (40.3%). The Chiefs are actually surprisingly below the league average (29.4%) and the 11th best in the league.

So knowing this, what can I say about Matt Cassel? He has more passes dropped than the average QB, but also faces less pressure. How about his personal stats compared to other quarterbacks?

CMP%: 59.5% (23rd)
Yards/Attempt: 6.4 (26th)
QB Rating: 76.6 (24th)

You can look up other stats, but these are easy ones to relate on a per quarterback basis.

My personal opinion of Matt Cassel is that he's serviceable, provided we have an awesome run game. I still think it is time for the Chiefs to spend a 1st round pick on a quarterback, and if anything, groom him to (hopefully) be our quarterback of the future. Matt Cassel, no matter the circumstances of dropped passes or protection, will most likely always be a below average NFL quarterback. Last year was impressive, but I can say without a doubt that it was against one of the easiest passing schedules, and our running game helped him out tremendously.

I just hope this helps clear up confusion as to how many passes get dropped or how much pressure our quarterback is under.

[KCraised]

Interesting data. Thanks for taking the time.

[texaschief]

Of course, going by this years stats, that makes sense. But in a team decimated by injury, we couldn't expect anymore than that. Matter of fact, as bad as this team has played, I would be shocked to see him doing any better. I want us to win, as I've said, and I want Palko or Stanzi to be good. However, when their numbers aren't even close to Cassel's I won't gloat. I will point out that the team needs improving around them. You simply cannot expect a QB to do well with this team and coaching around him.

There's a reason Cassel has been a backup since high school. He doesn't even pass the eyeball test. Never have I watched a Matt Cassel game and thought, "WOW!! This guy is an elite QB." We have all seen what this team can do when it's clicking all all cylinders. If Matt Cassel was an elite QB, he would be able to put this team on his back and at the VERY LEAST, make them competitive.

Matt Cassel is a good backup. His ceiling is a below average starter... which is where he is now.

[SIC J]

FYI, this team is still in the top 10 in total rushing, and the 5th worst in passing...Ahead of only the Vikings (Ponder/McNabb), Broncos (Tebow), 49ers (Smith), and Jaguars (Gabbert). 1,289 passing yards through 9 games is bad, no matter how you paint it.

I know another team that lost their stud tight end and best running back, last year. The Green Bay Packers. Guess what they went on to do? The injury excuses can only go so far.

Are you seriously comparing Grant to Charles? LOL

And are you seriously trying to compare or not factoring in Cassel to Rodgers? LOL

Not to mention the Packers allowed the 2nd least amount of points scored last year. LOL

So YES, when a team like the Chiefs has ELITE players injured, it affects them a lot more than a team like the Packers.

[Ryfo18]

Are you seriously comparing Grant to Charles? LOL

And are you seriously trying to compare or not factoring in Cassel to Rodgers? LOL

Not to mention the Packers allowed the 2nd least amount of points scored last year. LOL

So YES, when a team like the Chiefs has ELITE players injured, it affects them a lot more than a team like the Packers.

And this is exactly why we need to draft a quarterback early next year, one that we can hang the future of the franchise on. Say what you will, but I doubt undrafted Tyler Palko and 5th rounder Ricky Stanzi are our answers for a franchise quarterback.

And no I'm not trying to compare Grant to Charles. But if you build your team and hinge your success on a lone running back, you're screwed. Of the last 10 Super Bowl champs, how many won by just having an elite running back? Outside of the Ravens in 2001, every Super Bowl champion since then has had a great quarterback. I can say this:

1.) Matt Cassel is good, but he'll never be great.
2.) There are never any guarantees that we'll find a great quarterback, they're few and far between. But this organization has done nothing that points in the direction of trying to develop a great quarterback. Matt Cassel below average arm strength, accuracy, and poor presence in the pocket. The last attribute can be taught, but the first two are the most difficult to overcome.

[TopekaRoy]

That's very interresting. Nice work, Ryfo!

I'd have to say the thing that shocked me the most ... was Philly facing pressure 40% of the time.

My guess would be that Vick brings a lot of that pressure on himself by hanging on to the ball too long.. Because he has great ability to run the ball, teams bring extra pressure from the outside to keep him in the pocket, and he will often start to run and then pass the ball just before the line of scrimmage, if defenders "bite" on him running and leave a receiver open.

I would love to see those stats for myself. Can post links directly to the pages they are on?

[Ryfo18]

I would love to see those stats for myself. Can post links directly to the pages they are on?

Unfortunately no, it's a subscription service so you'd have to pay to see them.

I don't think tables can paste that well into the forums, but I'd be happy to e-mail anyone the spreadsheet (once I put it together again). Just PM your e-mail.

[chief31]

What would a similar breakdown, for last season (when the team was primarily healthy) look like?

The Pressures is extremely misleading. We had a few solid games at protection, but the last two have been as bad as any team, anywhere.

When the rest of your offense is terrible, the QB's statistics will be terrible. But that is not the same of a good offense making a QB's statistics good.

Accuracy will be hindered by dropped passes, and even with that issue in 2010, he still finished as the 8th highest completion percentage in The NFL, and he finished as the tenth best in 2008.

He has been a good QB, whenever the rest of the offense has been better than worthless.

[Ryfo18]

What would a similar breakdown, for last season (when the team was primarily healthy) look like?

The Pressures is extremely misleading. We had a few solid games at protection, but the last two have been as bad as any team, anywhere.

When the rest of your offense is terrible, the QB's statistics will be terrible. But that is not the same of a good offense making a QB's statistics good.

Accuracy will be hindered by dropped passes, and even with that issue in 2010, he still finished as the 8th highest completion percentage in The NFL, and he finished as the tenth best in 2008.

He has been a good QB, whenever the rest of the offense has been better than worthless.

Not sure where you got the CMP % numbers from 2010...He was 26th (58.2%), ahead of only Fitzpatrick, Collins, Sanchez, Derek Anderson, and Clausen.

He saw 27 of his passes dropped last year. I don't have the league average for drops, but here are the number of drops for the top 4 quarterbacks in completion % in 2010:

Drew Brees: 38 drops(658att, 5.8%)
Peyton Manning: 48 drops(679att, 7.1%)
Philip Rivers: 22 drops(541att, 4.1%)
Tom Brady: 46 drops(492att, 9.3%)

Matt Cassel: 27 (450att, 6%)

To say that Matt Cassel is a victim of drops, is a gross exaggeration. They are a reality for every team.

Last year he faced pressure on 185/519 dropbacks (35.6%), so more frequently. Sure, we may have issues surrounding Matt Cassel, but I wouldn't call it anything out of the ordinary that other quarterbacks don't face on a weekly basis.

[chief31]

Not sure where you got the CMP % numbers from 2010...He was 26th (58.2%), ahead of only Fitzpatrick, Collins, Sanchez, Derek Anderson, and Clausen.

DOH!!!! That's twice I've had to back up on something today.

I forgot to re-click the specific column when I switched seasons.

He saw 27 of his passes dropped last year. I don't have the league average for drops, but here are the number of drops for the top 4 quarterbacks in completion % in 2010:

Drew Brees: 38 drops(658att, 5.8%)
Peyton Manning: 48 drops(679att, 7.1%)
Philip Rivers: 22 drops(541att, 4.1%)
Tom Brady: 46 drops(492att, 9.3%)

Matt Cassel: 27 (450att, 6%)

To say that Matt Cassel is a victim of drops, is a gross exaggeration. They are a reality for every team.

Last year he faced pressure on 185/519 dropbacks (35.6%), so more frequently. Sure, we may have issues surrounding Matt Cassel, but I wouldn't call it anything out of the ordinary that other quarterbacks don't face on a weekly basis.

The problem has been the extremes. He is plagued with a total failure everywhere around him, for two games, and his numbers suffer.

But then we have a couple of decent games, and Cassel has a good game.

I don't see how you can have watched the last two games, and still think that that kind of thing happens on a regular basis, to even a few offenses every week.

We are as inconsistent as any NFL football team I remember having ever seen.

Just looking at the last game, against Denver, we were decimated by a clock-eating offense that gave us few opportunites, and a single third down dropped pass, or a 3rd & long running play, or a Sack, or a penalty, or a poorly run route is far more costly than it would be for team who is getting the ball back quickly.

Then, once the time is running low, and you find yourself trailing by two scores, it becomes "desperation mode" and we are unable to pass protect well enough for that kind of situation.

It's a run-first offense, and our run game is sporadic, at best, leading to bad third down situations.

And, when you pass as infrequently as we generally do, every single error makes a much bigger mark on the game, than it would for a team that passes 40 times per game.

Our offense has been, either slightly cloudy, or outright blizzard mode.

And the guy inside of that blizzard is always going to be in bad shape.

I have no doubt that Matt Cassel will do very well, should he ever get to play on an offense that is not complete garbage, as ours has been for half of our games this season.

Until then, I see a good QB playing on a horrible offense in most of our games.

[Ryfo18]

The problem has been the extremes. He is plagued with a total failure everywhere around him, for two games, and his numbers suffer.

But then we have a couple of decent games, and Cassel has a good game.

I don't see how you can have watched the last two games, and still think that that kind of thing happens on a regular basis, to even a few offenses every week.

We are as inconsistent as any NFL football team I remember having ever seen.

Just looking at the last game, against Denver, we were decimated by a clock-eating offense that gave us few opportunites, and a single third down dropped pass, or a 3rd & long running play, or a Sack, or a penalty, or a poorly run route is far more costly than it would be for team who is getting the ball back quickly.

Then, once the time is running low, and you find yourself trailing by two scores, it becomes "desperation mode" and we are unable to pass protect well enough for that kind of situation.

It's a run-first offense, and our run game is sporadic, at best, leading to bad third down situations.

And, when you pass as infrequently as we generally do, every single error makes a much bigger mark on the game, than it would for a team that passes 40 times per game.

Our offense has been, either slightly cloudy, or outright blizzard mode.

And the guy inside of that blizzard is always going to be in bad shape.

I have no doubt that Matt Cassel will do very well, should he ever get to play on an offense that is not complete garbage, as ours has been for half of our games this season.

Until then, I see a good QB playing on a horrible offense in most of our games.

I completely agree with the bolded statement, and pretty much everything else in your post. My purpose for this entire thread is simply that Matt Cassel, in my opinion, will not be the quarterback to lead us to the promised land.

We don't need to get drastic, and dump him and leave the franchise completely lost. But when I look at Tyler Palko and Ricky Stanzi, I'm sorry, I just don't see a long term answer there. Maybe they'll prove me wrong, but I doubt it.

I would love for nothing more than for the organization to go after a quarterback in the first round that has had a lot of success on the college level. While that is certainly no guarantee for future success, I think now is the perfect time to make that happen. Matt Cassel will have 3 years left on his contract after this season. I think he and the team's future would greatly benefit from having a legitimate backup that we can look at and say, "This guy has a chance to be our next quarterback."