A Deeper Look Into Matt Cassel, and How He Compares w/ the League

[Ryfo18]

There has been a lot of debate regarding Matt Cassel recently. Last year, I was as big a supporter as anyone, defending him as often as possible. This year, I have changed my tone after watching him play. I have my reasons, but I am doing this study solely out of curiousity, and even I don't know the results as I write this post. I just have the data compiled into a spreadsheet (courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com).

Three of the common arguments we hear are this:

1.) Matt Cassel is not accurate enough.
2.) Matt Cassel is cursed by dropped passes.
3.) Matt Cassel is always under too much pressure to succeed.

The data I have in front of me is simply 4 statistics for each team:

1.) Drops
2.) Pass Attempts (when a pass was actually thrown)
2.) # of dropbacks where the quarterback saw pressure.
3.) Total # of Dropbacks

From these, it's easy to determine two percentages for every team:

1.) The percentage of passes dropped (Drops/Attempts)
2.) The percentage of times the quarterback faces pressure (Pressures/Dropbacks)

Here's what I have found...

The league average for percentage of passes dropped is 6.12%. The low is Buffalo (3.42%) and the high is St. Louis (9.04%). The Chiefs are in fact above average in drops at 7.61% (21 drops in 276 attempts). From a precentage standpoint, this is the 5th worst in the league. So we can without a doubt say, the Chiefs drop more passes than the rest of the league, on a per attempt basis.

As far as pressures. The league average is that a quarterback will face pressure 32% of the time. The low is Tennessee (17.9%) and the high is Philadelphia (40.3%). The Chiefs are actually surprisingly below the league average (29.4%) and the 11th best in the league.

So knowing this, what can I say about Matt Cassel? He has more passes dropped than the average QB, but also faces less pressure. How about his personal stats compared to other quarterbacks?

CMP%: 59.5% (23rd)
Yards/Attempt: 6.4 (26th)
QB Rating: 76.6 (24th)

You can look up other stats, but these are easy ones to relate on a per quarterback basis.

My personal opinion of Matt Cassel is that he's serviceable, provided we have an awesome run game. I still think it is time for the Chiefs to spend a 1st round pick on a quarterback, and if anything, groom him to (hopefully) be our quarterback of the future. Matt Cassel, no matter the circumstances of dropped passes or protection, will most likely always be a below average NFL quarterback. Last year was impressive, but I can say without a doubt that it was against one of the easiest passing schedules, and our running game helped him out tremendously.

I just hope this helps clear up confusion as to how many passes get dropped or how much pressure our quarterback is under.

[chief31]

I completely agree with the bolded statement, and pretty much everything else in your post. My purpose for this entire thread is simply that Matt Cassel, in my opinion, will not be the quarterback to lead us to the promised land.

We don't need to get drastic, and dump him and leave the franchise completely lost. But when I look at Tyler Palko and Ricky Stanzi, I'm sorry, I just don't see a long term answer there. Maybe they'll prove me wrong, but I doubt it.

I would love for nothing more than for the organization to go after a quarterback in the first round that has had a lot of success on the college level. While that is certainly no guarantee for future success, I think now is the perfect time to make that happen. Matt Cassel will have 3 years left on his contract after this season. I think he and the team's future would greatly benefit from having a legitimate backup that we can look at and say, "This guy has a chance to be our next quarterback."

Ditto, except that I think Matt Cassel CAN lead a good team to great heights.

If you remove To Brady from The Patriots, I think that team is average, at best.

Yet Matt Cassel, who had not started, since high school, was able to take that team to 11-5.

That is getting a good team (Patriots w/o Brady) to overachieve.

Moving here, where the team was clearly outright horrible, and leading this team 10-6, and then getting us to 4-5, while losing the main cog of the mediocre offense, and testing our depth all over the place, is far too impressive to suggest that he is incapable of leading a winner.

Three of his four seasons (including 2011) has had him getting a better record from his team, than they should have gotten.

Get the rest of the offense to play, even decent, and I think Matt Cassel takes this team to better place than where it would be with an average QB.

I think this offense, based on coaching, and specific talent gaps, is so bad that it makes good good players look bad, and would make average players look like they should be driving a bus for a living.

Hopefully though, the offense gets their act together, and helps Palko look like Tom Brady, and we can work with a nice QB controversy to start 2012.

[SIC J]

I also think the NFL has their own opinion of what a dropped pass is. Last game against the Broncos I had counted 7 dropped passes. The stats at the time counted only 4.

If the ball hits the receiver in the hands or body, it's a dropped pass to me. The NFL doesn't count it that way all the time.

[chief31]

I also think the NFL has their own opinion of what a dropped pass is. Last game against the Broncos I had counted 7 dropped passes. The stats at the time counted only 4.

If the ball hits the receiver in the hands or body, it's a dropped pass to me. The NFL doesn't count it that way all the time.

Not to mention, The NFL does not even list that statistic. It is done by outside sources.

[Three7s]

People keep saying the Chiefs are inconsistent. I don't think they're inconsistent. I think they're flat out bad. They get 4 wins, 3/4 against bad QBs and the other being the miracle, and all of a sudden they could be good?

The sad part is this team isn't even beating the bad QBs.(Moore, Tebow) Just face it. The Chiefs beat 4 bad teams and nothing more.

[H-townChiefsFan]

There's a reason Cassel has been a backup since high school. He doesn't even pass the eyeball test. Never have I watched a Matt Cassel game and thought, "WOW!! This guy is an elite QB." We have all seen what this team can do when it's clicking all all cylinders. If Matt Cassel was an elite QB, he would be able to put this team on his back and at the VERY LEAST, make them competitive.

Matt Cassel is a good backup. His ceiling is a below average starter... which is where he is now.

I like this post. He dont pass the 'ol smell test.
Stats are great and all, but enough watching will tell you what you need to know....

Peeeeee-Yeeeeewwww! Somethin stankin...smells like a poo-poo cas(sel)tle!

[Hayvern]

There has been a lot of debate regarding Matt Cassel recently. Last year, I was as big a supporter as anyone, defending him as often as possible. This year, I have changed my tone after watching him play. I have my reasons, but I am doing this study solely out of curiousity, and even I don't know the results as I write this post. I just have the data compiled into a spreadsheet (courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com).

Three of the common arguments we hear are this:

1.) Matt Cassel is not accurate enough.
2.) Matt Cassel is cursed by dropped passes.
3.) Matt Cassel is always under too much pressure to succeed.

The data I have in front of me is simply 4 statistics for each team:

1.) Drops
2.) Pass Attempts (when a pass was actually thrown)
2.) # of dropbacks where the quarterback saw pressure.
3.) Total # of Dropbacks

From these, it's easy to determine two percentages for every team:

1.) The percentage of passes dropped (Drops/Attempts)
2.) The percentage of times the quarterback faces pressure (Pressures/Dropbacks)

Here's what I have found...

The league average for percentage of passes dropped is 6.12%. The low is Buffalo (3.42%) and the high is St. Louis (9.04%). The Chiefs are in fact above average in drops at 7.61% (21 drops in 276 attempts). From a precentage standpoint, this is the 5th worst in the league. So we can without a doubt say, the Chiefs drop more passes than the rest of the league, on a per attempt basis.

As far as pressures. The league average is that a quarterback will face pressure 32% of the time. The low is Tennessee (17.9%) and the high is Philadelphia (40.3%). The Chiefs are actually surprisingly below the league average (29.4%) and the 11th best in the league.

So knowing this, what can I say about Matt Cassel? He has more passes dropped than the average QB, but also faces less pressure. How about his personal stats compared to other quarterbacks?

CMP%: 59.5% (23rd)
Yards/Attempt: 6.4 (26th)
QB Rating: 76.6 (24th)

You can look up other stats, but these are easy ones to relate on a per quarterback basis.

My personal opinion of Matt Cassel is that he's serviceable, provided we have an awesome run game. I still think it is time for the Chiefs to spend a 1st round pick on a quarterback, and if anything, groom him to (hopefully) be our quarterback of the future. Matt Cassel, no matter the circumstances of dropped passes or protection, will most likely always be a below average NFL quarterback. Last year was impressive, but I can say without a doubt that it was against one of the easiest passing schedules, and our running game helped him out tremendously.

I just hope this helps clear up confusion as to how many passes get dropped or how much pressure our quarterback is under.

Taking each of these on their own is alright, but let's look at this a little more closely.

So he is 29% likely to face pressure on any given play, yet any given pass play he is likely to have 59% chance of completing a pass for 6.4 yards. I would argue that the low passing rating and the low yardage per pass are also impacted greatly by the pressure, so while the pressure Cassel feels might be lower than the league average, his reaction to that pressure is impacted more than other QBs in the league.

[azchiefsfan]

Ditto, except that I think Matt Cassel CAN lead a good team to great heights.

If you remove To Brady from The Patriots, I think that team is average, at best.

Yet Matt Cassel, who had not started, since high school, was able to take that team to 11-5.

That is getting a good team (Patriots w/o Brady) to overachieve.

Moving here, where the team was clearly outright horrible, and leading this team 10-6, and then getting us to 4-5, while losing the main cog of the mediocre offense, and testing our depth all over the place, is far too impressive to suggest that he is incapable of leading a winner.

Three of his four seasons (including 2011) has had him getting a better record from his team, than they should have gotten.

Get the rest of the offense to play, even decent, and I think Matt Cassel takes this team to better place than where it would be with an average QB.

I think this offense, based on coaching, and specific talent gaps, is so bad that it makes good good players look bad, and would make average players look like they should be driving a bus for a living.

Hopefully though, the offense gets their act together, and helps Palko look like Tom Brady, and we can work with a nice QB controversy to start 2012.

Exactly!

[hometeam]

we are so high on dropped passes becuase cassel doesnt put the ball where it is supposed to be.

[Chiefster]

we are so high on dropped passes becuase cassel doesnt put the ball where it is supposed to be.

Really? I kind of thought when the ball hits the receiver in the hands then that's pretty much where it's supposed to be.

[Three7s]

Really? I kind of thought when the ball hits the receiver in the hands then that's pretty much where it's supposed to be.

That depends. Is the receiver having to turn his body the opposite direction that he's running? Is he having to dip his hands down or need to jump/dive for the ball? Cassel isn't exactly helping our receivers on most passes.