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Thread: Estimated Draft Position

  1. #1
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    Default Estimated Draft Position


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    1. Indy 0-16
    2. STL 2-14 SOS .561
    3. Min 2-14 SOS .574
    4/5. Car 5-11 SOS .479
    4/5. KC 5-11 SOS .479
    6. Phi 5-11 SOS .491
    7. CLE 5-11 SOS .497
    8. Buf 5-11 SOS .503
    9. Mia 5-11 SOS .509
    10. Jax 5-11 SOS .533
    11. TB 5-11 SOS .550
    12. Was 6-9 SOS .479

    This is a list of the teams currently with worse records or tied with the Chiefs and where I think the records will end up at the end of the season. If it weren't for Cutler getting injured the week before we played Chicago and then them losing Forte along with a fluke hail-mary, we'd end the season with just 4 wins. This team/organization has given up on the season and doesn't show any signs of life. Green Bay, then back to back with division leaders dying for a playoff spot doesn't bode well for this lame Chiefs team. I've got a lot of teams sitting at 5-11. That's just a coincidence, as I looked at all their schedules, I could only see one or fewer wins in each of their respective schedules.

    When there's a tie among records when it comes to draft position, the first tie-breker is strength of schedule. I indicated strength of schedule with "SOS." The number next to the SOS is the respective team's opponent's winning percentage... which, equals the strength of schedule rank. If things end the way I'm projecting and assuming that the SOS doesn't change (which it will), the Chiefs should end up in a coin-toss with the Panthers for the 4th and 5th spots.

    You have to think the Colts will trade either the pick or Peyton Manning. I see too much Eli Manning not going to San Diego in all this BS with Andrew Luck. Archie is going to make sure Luck and Peyton aren't on the same teams. Indy could just pass on Luck and go with a completely different position altogether. I think they'll trade down but it's impossible to say how far down they'll go. If things stay as they are and the Colts pass on Luck and keep Peyton, Luck could actually fall to Kansas City. You've got Peyton in Indy, Bradford in StL, Ponder in Minn, and Newton in Carolina. If the word gets out that Luck could fall to Kansas City, there's going to be a mad rush to trade with one of the top 4 spots to jump in front of KC.

    If Luck is who the Chiefs want, they could easily jump to #2 ahead of Minnesota and remove all chance of him being picked by Minnesota. In my prediction, the worse case scenario for the Chiefs is picking 5th. But even if that happens, you've still got Bradford and Newton ahead of you... meaning you've got at least 2 teams who aren't interested in a QB... and that's even assuming the Colts are done with the BEST QB in the history of the game... and if that indeed happens, the Chiefs are STILL left with one of either Luck, Barkley, or the Heisman winner if they want to take a QB!

    If there were EVER a year to take a QB high in the draft, it's THIS year. The rookie contracts are not even HALF of what they use to be and this is perhaps the deepest crop of QBs this league has seen in more than a decade. Even if Cassel was playing at his absolute peak at the moment, you've STILL got to consider taking a QB and grooming him at the VERY LEAST... HELL, the Colts have the best QB EVER and they're still probably going to take Luck... and he didn't even win the Heisman!!

    The more I think about this and look at the current situation the Chiefs are in, the more I think Pioli's job is dependent on him taking a chance on a possible franchise QB if the Chiefs do, in fact, land a top 5 draft pick... not to mention, we're probably going to be getting a new head coach who will probably want his own pick at QB.

    Not that I'm advocating him as our new HC... but we already know Josh McDaniel is willing to pull the trigger on a first round QB... and I believe he's going to be here next season.

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    Whatever it is, it's not high enough!

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    If we do move up or somehow get one of the big three qb`s in the 1st rnd, i just hope we havent traded away the rest of our picks.Chiefs are so gun shy since blackledge i wonder if they will.
    We have alot of holes to fill and i just dont want using all our high draft picks to get a qb. Maybe, just maybe Hunt will dust off the pocketbook and help fill holes in FA.
    i can remember what a chief super bowl team looks like! ......

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    Andrew Luck, RG III and Barkley?
    The best Chilean fan.
    Follow me on twitter @ChileanChief

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    I think we will see the Defense step up and win one of our last two, giving us a 6 and 10 record. I would like us to trade our way up close enough to get either RG3 or Luck.

    I realize that is going to be very hard.

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    Trading for Luck with the Horseshoes has a ring to it for whomever that may be, that said I also like Landry Jones if he becomes available. It would be nice to have a true franchise quarterback for once, once again. There are many holes which need to be filled though whatever positition we enter the draft this season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KristofLaw View Post
    Trading for Luck with the Horseshoes has a ring to it for whomever that may be, that said I also like Landry Jones if he becomes available. It would be nice to have a true franchise quarterback for once, once again. There are many holes which need to be filled though whatever positition we enter the draft this season.
    Luck could have been injured this year, sat out the last half of the year and with all the hype he might have still won the Heisman. RG3 won the Heisman for a reason. The games I've seen Luck can recognize and call his own plays but I'm not sure he's the end all be all of QB's. Leaf was suppose to be this golden boy and look how that turned out. Not calling Luck a Leaf, that actually sounds kinda funny but anyway I don't like the idea of betting the farm (aka all our draft picks) on Luck.

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    The only thing is it goes in order of easiest SOS to hardest, thier thinking is if two teams had the same record the team that had lower SOS is worse that the team that played the harder teams SOS so the Chiefs will be 10/11 draft order if the season ended now.

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    I think (maybe it is hope that is making me think this) that we will likely win one against the Raiders or Broncos.

    Anyways, I truly hope that we end up getting a bunch of trade offers. I think we will see a lot of jockeying around for trades this year, even more than last year, because of the rookie pay scale (it wasnt in place last year yet, but was expected to be in place).

    The three teams that would seem to want to target a QB would be Miami, Jax, and Washington. Maybe Cleveland, but Colt McCoy seems to be doing a decent job right now and they have other needs.

    Say we trade down with either of those teams and the Colts dont get Luck. That would leave us with Barkley, RG3 or Landry Jones (depending on where we ended up with the trade), and probably a low 2nd round pick.

    My dream scenario would be to then pick up the best LOT available. Then grab a RT with the 2nd round pick we traded for.

    My backup scenario (which is much more likely unless we get McDaniels as HC, since new coaches usually want their own QB) would still be to trade down and still get one of the QBs (and have him train behind Cassel for 1-2 years) and upgrade the OL by either trading back into the 1st round or getting a RT in the 2nd round.

    I think we will continue to be at the bottom of the league if we dont upgrade the OL. I think it is a much bigger need over QB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jap1 View Post
    I think (maybe it is hope that is making me think this) that we will likely win one against the Raiders or Broncos.

    Anyways, I truly hope that we end up getting a bunch of trade offers. I think we will see a lot of jockeying around for trades this year, even more than last year, because of the rookie pay scale (it wasnt in place last year yet, but was expected to be in place).

    The three teams that would seem to want to target a QB would be Miami, Jax, and Washington. Maybe Cleveland, but Colt McCoy seems to be doing a decent job right now and they have other needs.

    Say we trade down with either of those teams and the Colts dont get Luck. That would leave us with Barkley, RG3 or Landry Jones (depending on where we ended up with the trade), and probably a low 2nd round pick.

    My dream scenario would be to then pick up the best LOT available. Then grab a RT with the 2nd round pick we traded for.

    My backup scenario (which is much more likely unless we get McDaniels as HC, since new coaches usually want their own QB) would still be to trade down and still get one of the QBs (and have him train behind Cassel for 1-2 years) and upgrade the OL by either trading back into the 1st round or getting a RT in the 2nd round.

    I think we will continue to be at the bottom of the league if we dont upgrade the OL. I think it is a much bigger need over QB.
    If Mcdaniels becomes our coach he already has his QB, Kyle Orton.

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