My Take on the Chiefs Win Today (If anyone cares)

[Ryfo18]

1.) I've been a big fan of Romeo, and this defense all year. Put behind a competent QB that can actually keep the offense moving, the Chiefs defense is probably the most underrated in the league (right there with the Broncos that continue to win "because of Tebow").

2.) If the Broncos do win the AFC West, this plays well into the hands of the Chiefs. Why?

The Raiders have no draft picks and are stuck with Carson Palmer, which was a backfire waiting to happen from the beginning. Raiders fans tried to be oblivious of Carson's past and all of the sudden think he's a quarterback capable of leading a team to the playoffs. He is not. And they have about nothing for draft picks in the next year. The Raiders willl continue to be a sub .500 team for the next years coming.

On the other hand, the Tebow situation is interesting. Broncos fans, they love him. John Elway, on the other hand, is not a big fan. Does this pin the fans vs. management though, into the Broncos not drafting a competent quarterback? Who knows...I don't know if Elway has the stones to go against the fan base ... what I do know though is that Tebow could set that organization back a lot. He's essentially the Vince Young of today. Benefits from a great defense, doesn't do much for himself offensively, and is certainly not the solution for the Broncos.

3.) The Chiefs are an elite quarterback away from contending. And this point is key, because we, as a fanbase deserve better. We haven't gotten it to this point, and it's been 42 years since this team has been able to bring us a Super Bowl. But let's realize what is in front of us ...

A defense that can shut down and hold the best offense in the league to 14 points.

A defense that can keep the Steelers within range of being beat, and provided a competent quarterback, could have won that game.

A defense that shut the Patriots down for the first half, until the Patriots got the better of them in the 2nd half. Had the Chiefs had an offense that could have put up 30+ points (against a bad defense), that could have been another win.


What am I getting at? We saw what Orton could do for us today...What could an elite quarterback do on this team, given that we have perhaps the most underrated defense in the league?

Resign Carr, for one thing...The Chiefs corners have shut down the best wide receivers all year. Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Wes Welker, Jordy Nelson, Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress...what have they done? Bring back Berry next year, and wow, we have something to really brag about.

Cassel, or Orton, can lead this team deep into the playoffs. Can they win a Super Bowl? Maybe, but I doubt it. But now is the time with an early draft pick, and a deep QB draft, to draft the QB of the future. If we keep going as we are, we won't be picking in the top 15 in the near future.

I'm rambling at this point, but will stick to what I've said all year. Put a legit offense with this defense against any team, and you have a Super Bowl contender...The ONLY thing missing from the offense? An elite quarterback.

[boiler01]

First off, even though I hate Phillip Rivers, the dude is an elite QB (and hands down the best player on the Chargers team, even in his down year this year) that is not a product of his coaching, I actually think the coaching hampers his abilities.

Dude you sound like a Rivers homer. The guy has ridden one of the most talented teams for many years, and he did not achieve ANYTHING. They would have won multiple superbows with an elite QB. As to coach hampering, are you kidding me, Norv Turner is certainly not a good head coach, but no doubt he's one of the best NFL OC/QB coaches ever in the game. The only reason he got hired was because AJ Smith wanted Rivers to succeed at any cost to cover his ***.

Then for the comment on the Experts not know what they are talking about regarding this years depth at QB??? Are you nuts, those guys get paid for a living to scout those guys, they've got much more information than we do, and I would trust the opinion of a paid professional over a dude on a forum that anyone can join.

Paid professionals certainly are better than the fans on assessment of most players. But when it comes to QBs, all bets are off, and many of those xperts are dumb in the first place, so professional or not, they make lots of dumb mistakes, over and again. Go look at QB draft history. If you don't understand drafting QB is vastly different from drafting other players, then I don't know what to tell you.

Cassel's total QBR with the Chiefs has been 79.8 Ortons career average is 77.15. Flacco's career average is 85.8. so if you look at the #'s then Flacco could be considered better than both Cassel and Orton.

Those tiny differences don't mean much. With the Ravens defense and running game and 4 years in the system, I highly doubt Cassel or Orton could not do better.

[chief31]

Elite:
Brady (11-3) Late round pick, who was slightly above average when the team was really good.
Brees (11-3) 2nd round pick, dropped from that team, and picked up by another.
Mannaing (Of Course Hurt this year but last 5 years averaged 10-12 wins a season)
Big Ben (10-4) Up and down. The Steelers are great because of the defense. He has helped get the team over the hump. But I would not list him as an elite QB.
Aaron Rogers (13-1)

Above Average:
Stafford (9-5)
Matt Ryan (9-5)
Schaub (10-4) (he did most of the work to get here)
Flacco (10-4)
Eli (7-7)
Rivers (7-7) I would actually put this guy in in place of Big Ben.
Romo (8-6)
Vick (6-8) (that whole team was a mess)

Average (to below):
Tarvaris Jackson/Whitehurst (7-7)
Cassel/Orton (6-8) (I will say Cassel played above average last year, and our record showed it, but only 1 out of 3 seasons isn't promising) 2 Out of his four seasons. And a pretty bad situation for him here, for the most part.
Chad Henne/Matt More (5-9)
Freeman (4-10)
Grossman/Beck (5-9)
Caleb Hanee (since the loss of Cutler: 0-4)
Painter/Orlovski (1-13)
Colt McCoy (4-10)
Fitzpatrick (5-9)

Trends and History show that if you have an above average to an elite QB, you typically have a better chance of notching the top records in the league and making it to the playoffs, year in and year out. If you have an average to below average QB, the likelyhood drops that you will consistently field a winning record and compete in the playoffs.

And if you look at that list: The Elite's: 3 were 1st round QB's, which could be 4 because Brees was the #32 overall pick in 01'. Only Brady was a late round pick. The Above Avg: 7 of the 8 were 1st round QB's and the Avg to Belows: only 2 of the 14 were 1st round QB's (which like I say there's always an exception, I think that Freeman is better than his record this year is showing)

Yes there is always the exception like a Trent Dilfer, but when you look at the %'s and recent history it says the the talent you have at the QB positions greatly affects a teams success.

I'm also not saying that every QB in this draft will make it to "elite" status, and that there aren't busts in the 1st round, but once again, if you look at the numbers (even in the league right now) the %'s will more than likely show you, that 1st round QB's have the best chance to become above average QB's.

All I am saying is look at the #'s, I know there are a million ways to build a team, and that you can find diamonds in the rough like Tom Brady, but History has shown that you can't bank on Stanzi becoming a Hall of Famer. If he does, hooray for us! But we need to try to control what we can right now, and stop thinking we can turn a 7th round draft pick into a Tom Brady (because that's only happened how many times before?)

This team is built.... We've got a great D, We've got extremely talented skill players, just imagine the situation a young talented QB would be in, if he landed on this roster. We are only a few positions away from really being competitive year in and year our, and although OG and RT are on that list, I think the more impact-full position is QB...

I have had this discussion a few times.

And, if you look at the best ever, as far as championships, then you have an average (ish) Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, and both are overshadowed by late round picks, in Montana, and Brady.

The primary reason first round picks have more, overall, success, is because they are given more than enough chances to become good.

Look at Alex Smith.

And with Cassel, he has had three and a half seasons, with great success through tow of them, and has been in an unfavorable situation for three of those seasons.

If this were a true rookie, having been as successful as Cassel, in under four seasons, anybody would be a fool to throw him away.

He has been pretty close to the elites for two seasons.

I think the fact that Cassel is not our own draftee really changes perspective for many.

This season, Cassel was the guy who had to take the reigns for a team that had a whole of changes to be adjusted to, and Palko and Orton are getting to run with the team, after they have worked together for most of the year.

Not to mention the change in play-calling.

We may deal Cassel this offseason.

And I think that would be a bad idea.

He has played for this team during all the garbage, and now might not be allowed to play for us, once we have gotten the offense in better shape.

[boiler01]

Uhh. Why are people trying to prove that a 1st round QB has better chances to be elite than late rounders? Nobody denies that FACT...

The thing people enjoy ignoring is that drafting QB, in any round, is no sure thing. Lots of highly touted prospects do not pan out. It's not just one bust a year, many first round QBs fail in NFL. Go google, go wiki, whatever. It is not a given that your new dream QB will do any better than the current ones. If you are not desperate in QB and not in the position to take one such as Luck, you pass. It's that simple.

[ctchiefsfan]

I'm not sure I go along with your thesis entirely. Certainly 1st round QB picks are risky. But then QB risks are worth taking if you have a generally good team.

If Orton looks good the next 2 weeks, I would be OK with using a draft pick to package with Cassel to move up in the draft and get a QB.

We still need o-line help and some depth on defense, but I think we could achieve those needs in the 2cond and 3rd round and through free agency.

We currently have 2 decent to good QBs on the roster and I suspect we can't/won't keep both of them. Neither one is going to want to be a backup. So since we will pretty much have to lose one of them, I'd be OK with packaging one of them with a draft pick to get a truly hot prospect QB.

That said, I'd be OK with looking mostly for o-line and some depth on defense.

[boiler01]

QB risks are worth taking if you have a generally good team.

Totally agree. The thing is, is Chiefs a good team (other than the QB position)? How many people believed that before the Packers game? How many now? It's rather interesting that one game can make such a dramatic impact.

[Jrudi]

Uhh. Why are people trying to prove that a 1st round QB has better chances to be elite than late rounders? Nobody denies that FACT...

The thing people enjoy ignoring is that drafting QB, in any round, is no sure thing. Lots of highly touted prospects do not pan out. It's not just one bust a year, many first round QBs fail in NFL. Go google, go wiki, whatever. It is not a given that your new dream QB will do any better than the current ones. If you are not desperate in QB and not in the position to take one such as Luck, you pass. It's that simple.

There is never a sure thing with any draft pick at any position, it's that simple. (people arguing about QB's or LOT's are easier to find in later rounds are just full of it, it's a crap shoot.) My point was stating that there are players that make it regardless of what pick they are, hell there are undrafted players that become hall of famers'. But there are reasons that a player is picked in the 1st round, they are viewed (At the time) as elite talent comparable to what is available at that year, and I guarantee that if you could find a success rate by round, the 1st round would have the most success out of any round at ALL of the positions.

If you went up to Pioli and asked him hey this year I'm going to give you a choice; the NFL decided they want to let you choose to get 4 extra draft choices, but all four have to be in the same round, you can have a total of 5 1st round selections, or 5 7th round selections. My bet is that Pioli would take the 7th rounders because he's banking on finding a Brady again....Seriously it's a no brainier.

PEOPLE DON'T HEAR ABOUT 2ND-7TH ROUND PICKS THAT DON'T WORK OUT BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT 1ST ROUND PICKS!!!!

With that said, I have mentioned that we are in a good situation with Cassel, and Orton, and the possibilities that they bring as far as how we could move them, restructure contracts, or whatever. I agree with those that say it is extremely likely BOTH are not on the roster next year, so my opinion is, if we are in the POSITION to take a talented QB in rounds 1-2 I think it is a big enough need on this team to take a chance on one.

[Ryfo18]

Totally agree. The thing is, is Chiefs a good team (other than the QB position)? How many people believed that before the Packers game? How many now? It's rather interesting that one game can make such a dramatic impact.

I have liked the defense all year...And can hardly pin the blowout games on them (turnovers, no offense, etc.). Given a competent offense, this team can compete. Last week just further confirmed my assumptions.

[Jrudi]

Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan
QB risks are worth taking if you have a generally good team.


Love this Quote.

I truly believe that the success of a young player is highly dependent on the situation he is placed in and the talent around him, no matter what position they are playing.

The Chiefs have a good foundation built for a young talented player to have success.

[TopekaRoy]

I'd be OK with packaging one of them with a draft pick to get a truly hot prospect QB.

That sounds like a good idea, but if a team is in a position to draft a Luck or a Griffin, why would they give that up for Cassel or Orton and an extra pick? If they need a QB wouldn't they just draft the "superstar" qb.

To move up and snag one of those QBs I think we would have to deal with a team that doesn't want or need a QB and that means we would either have to give them several picks or someone like Charles or Hali, which I wouldn't be willing to do.

Ans now that Barclay is off the table our chances of having a great QB fall to us has gotten even lower, especially if we win our next two games.

[ctchiefsfan]

That sounds like a good idea, but if a team is in a position to draft a Luck or a Griffin, why would they give that up for Cassel or Orton and an extra pick? If they need a QB wouldn't they just draft the "superstar" qb.

To move up and snag one of those QBs I think we would have to deal with a team that doesn't want or need a QB and that means we would either have to give them several picks or someone like Charles or Hali, which I wouldn't be willing to do.

Ans now that Barclay is off the table our chances of having a great QB fall to us has gotten even lower, especially if we win our next two games.

Good points Topeka. As for giving up Hali or Charles....NFW!