Scott Pioli...a genius!

**nigeriannightmare** · 03-19-2012, 12:27 PM

Now conspirancy theorists think about it. The chiefs were the first to offer a contract to manning knowing full well we were gonna go after quinn and how much elway dislikes tebow. Does anyone know what was offered, that contract may be why manning wants more money now and in doing so tied the hands of our hated rival while we became better and they, the donkeys, were forced to wait for manning who in turn may go to san francisco.....oh and signed a stud cb from oakland.....and may still get tolbert. Yeah pioli sucks.

**dbolan** · 03-21-2012, 02:48 PM

Okay...Here you go

Advanced NFL Stats: 4th Down Trend?

Year 4th Downs Conv. Attempts Rate (%) Conversions Success (%)
2002 4205 497 12 252 51
2003 4305 501 12 232 46
2004 4185 454 11 219 48
2005 4248 465 11 223 48
2006 4218 473 11 239 51
2007 4152 533 13 261 49
2008* 4096 468 17 252 54

**TopekaRoy** · 03-21-2012, 03:01 PM

Originally Posted by dbolan

Okay...Here you go

Advanced NFL Stats: 4th Down Trend?

Year4th DownsConv. AttemptsRate (%)
ConversionsSuccess (%)
200242054971225251
200343055011223246
200441854541121948
200542484651122348
200642184731123951
200741525331326149
2008*40964681725254

I saw that, but those are aggregate totals for all 4th down conversion attempts. They aren't broken down by distance. And even there, it was only above 50% in '02, '06 and '08. It was below 50% in '03, '04, '05 and '07 and there are no figures for '09, '10 and '11, so you can't tell if that number is trending up or down.

**dbolan** · 03-21-2012, 03:15 PM

Here is a link that is interesting..>There are 3 parts, so you will have to folow the read...

Advanced NFL Stats: The 4th Down Study - Part 1

**TopekaRoy** · 03-21-2012, 03:29 PM

Originally Posted by dbolan

Here is a link that is interesting..>There are 3 parts, so you will have to folow the read...

Advanced NFL Stats: The 4th Down Study - Part 1

There you go. Part 3 has the info I was looking for.

Inside the 10 the Conversion rate on 4th and 8 is 30%, but outside the 10 it increases to about 37%. That's quite a bit higher than I thought it would be, but I'm guessing, you only go for it on 4th and 8 against really bad defenses.

**OPLookn** · 03-21-2012, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by TopekaRoy

There you go. Part 3 has the info I was looking for.

Inside the 10 the Conversion rate on 4th and 8 is 30%, but outside the 10 it increases to about 37%. That's quite a bit higher than I thought it would be, but I'm guessing, you only go for it on 4th and 8 against really bad defenses.

Even then 1/3rd is far less than 1/2. Not to mention that at the 50 yard line all a team needs is a couple of first downs to get into field goal range. You're more likely to fail than succeed and the price for failing is too high. Again if I'm taking the failing side of converting I'll bet a 63% chance til the end of the season.

**jap1** · 03-21-2012, 05:08 PM

But ... it always worked for me to go for it on 4th down when I used to play Madden!!!!

**Seek** · 03-21-2012, 06:39 PM

Originally Posted by chief31

You interpretted disrespect. That does not mean that it was there. You don't know what he said. You have just made up whatever you feel like, and blamed him for saying it.

Hate him if you want. He isn't a Chiefs player, and never will be. But you are inventing reasons to do it.

Blamed who for saying what. I believe the whole point of the post from which I responded to that sparked the 4th down debate was when I didn't want him to be a chief. I disliked him from that day on. I thought he was an arrogant ace of a player and if he was not as good as he was, would be considered unexcusable. Regardless of how good he was, or how good he was with directing the players. I never liked his act on the field. Regardless of how effecient he may have been. It is my opinion and I don't claim it to be anything else.

Would that have changed if he became a Chief. Maybe, if he won for us.

Want to hear why I don't like Tom Brady? I hate his whinning about every time some actually hits him and he is looking for a flag. It has become a sin to actually hit Brady.

**nigeriannightmare** · 03-21-2012, 11:22 PM

Originally Posted by Seek

My dislike has come from watching him on the field at arrowhead yelling at his coach for not going for it on 4th and 8 from their 50. For one it meant he did not respect the Chiefs or arrowhead, and yelling at his coach for not going for it on 4th and 8 was not really the best decision for the team, and not his call. While he may believe he is more important than the coach, he still needs to listen to the coach.

I do most of my chiefscrowd from my phone....son desroyed it and am awaiting the new one....but yes i remember that game the oc was livid....i have never cared for indy as a franchise they are sooooo rude actually had a grandma throw popcorn at me leaving the playoff game. i dislike him too but he would have made us instantly better.

What denver went from 75-1 odds to 8-1 in vegas....hate him or not we would have been better. But eff him for not even coming for a visit.

**dbolan** · 03-22-2012, 08:40 AM

Still some pretty good info to read! I enjoyed it!

**chief31** · 03-23-2012, 07:18 PM

I think a big key to the 4th &8 discussion is the situations. I would think that the majority of those occur on the final drive of a game, or at least a "last desperate gasp" kind of drive.

And, in those situations, defenses tend to be playing "prevent", giving a passing game an advantage.

Though that could be analyzed even more, I think the numbers are higher than many would expect because of the types of game situations where a team would go for it.