Scott Pioli...a genius!

**nigeriannightmare** · 03-19-2012, 11:27 AM

Now conspirancy theorists think about it. The chiefs were the first to offer a contract to manning knowing full well we were gonna go after quinn and how much elway dislikes tebow. Does anyone know what was offered, that contract may be why manning wants more money now and in doing so tied the hands of our hated rival while we became better and they, the donkeys, were forced to wait for manning who in turn may go to san francisco.....oh and signed a stud cb from oakland.....and may still get tolbert. Yeah pioli sucks.

**chief31** · 03-21-2012, 12:39 AM

Originally Posted by KristofLaw

He just signed for 96 million and all along he knew what he was after. Man is this guy good at fleecing folks.

Yep. Money second.

**TopekaRoy** · 03-21-2012, 01:28 AM

Originally Posted by dbolan

4th down conversion rates have been at the 50% mark since around 2002. If you are on the 50 yard line and convert, you are in great field position, plus you are NOT "giving" the ball back to the other team and you are not risking a great return or a botched high snap to the punter.

I would have been pissed too. LOL

That's the conversion rate for all 4th down attempts and most of those are for only one or two yards (or less). In fact the conversion rate for 4th down attempts is only over 50% for 3 yds or less. At 4th and 8 the success rate is only around 30%. When you have a 7 in 10 chance of failing and you are out of FG range, the smart thing to do is punt and pin your opponent back deep.

**dbolan** · 03-21-2012, 07:44 AM

Originally Posted by KCCF

How is it not? You are saying everytime the chiefs have the ball at midfield and its 4th down we should go for it because we have a 40% chance to make it and if we don't its no big deal?

At mid-field yes. And by the way, it is a 50% chance on 4th down conversions.

Why GIVE the ball back, particularly if we are behind, whether it be 1st or the 4th qtr?

**Seek** · 03-21-2012, 11:11 AM

Originally Posted by chief31

Odds are that he was yelling about something on a prior play-call, or something else. But no way to know either way.

But, even if he was mad that he wasn't allowed to go for it, that does not mean that he did not have any respect for The Chiefs, and certainly didn't mean anything about his respect for Arrowhead. It would likely mean that he sees a hole that he could easily take advantage of.

It is a competitive drive to win. The term "all about the money" does not apply to Peyton Manning. He is all about the game of football, and the money is a result.

That term does not really apply to the vast majority of the players that it gets used against.

No, He clearly didn't want to get off the field. This was the home game that we won against Indy the year after the NO Punt Play off game. Gunther was doing a pretty decent job against him, but I can understand his argument, but it is not his place to yell at TONY Dungy questioning his decision in front of everyone.

As a Chiefs fan, it annoyed me. Just something I lost respect over. He was clearly disrespecting my team against his coaches wishes.

**Seek** · 03-21-2012, 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by dbolan

At mid-field yes. And by the way, it is a 50% chance on 4th down conversions.

Why GIVE the ball back, particularly if we are behind, whether it be 1st or the 4th qtr?

Because there is a chance you pin them on the 1 or 5. Making them get conservative with their play calling making it a 3 and out for just a couple yards. Then you have a chance to block a punt with a shorter distance to kick from the line of scrimmage increasing. You also get the ball around the 50 with a fresh set of downs and possible better field position.

Or you can go for it, and fail. Turn the ball over on the 50. Allow the Chiefs who had a pretty decent offense when this happened half a field to score on. This was still under Vermeil and Trent Green.

**OPLookn** · 03-21-2012, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by dbolan

At mid-field yes. And by the way, it is a 50% chance on 4th down conversions.

Why GIVE the ball back, particularly if we are behind, whether it be 1st or the 4th qtr?

Because there is a saying I know you have to be familiar with. Football is a game of inches. But instead of inches you want to give them feet?

You clearly want to use statistics to say what you want. As Roy said that 50% you quote is for 4th and 3 or less yards to go. I'm not sure where Roy got his 30% but we'll go with it. So you have less than a one in three chance of making it...but by all means "give" the ball back to them. Tell you what, I'll bet you a hundred bucks on every 4th and 8 and the we can settle up at the end of the season. What am I going to buy with all that money...Chiefs season tickets sound good to me!

**chief31** · 03-21-2012, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by Seek

No, He clearly didn't want to get off the field. This was the home game that we won against Indy the year after the NO Punt Play off game. Gunther was doing a pretty decent job against him, but I can understand his argument, but it is not his place to yell at TONY Dungy questioning his decision in front of everyone.

As a Chiefs fan, it annoyed me. Just something I lost respect over. He was clearly disrespecting my team against his coaches wishes.

You interpretted disrespect. That does not mean that it was there. You don't know what he said. You have just made up whatever you feel like, and blamed him for saying it.

Hate him if you want. He isn't a Chiefs player, and never will be. But you are inventing reasons to do it.

**dbolan** · 03-21-2012, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by chief31

You interpretted disrespect. That does not mean that it was there. You don't know what he said. You have just made up whatever you feel like, and blamed him for saying it.

Hate him if you want. He isn't a Chiefs player, and never will be. But you are inventing reasons to do it.

Amen.

**TopekaRoy** · 03-21-2012, 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by OPLookn

I'm not sure where Roy got his 30% but we'll go with it.

I'll be honest. I guessed!

I tried to find the stat with Google but the closest I could come was an article that said the conversion rate in the Big 10 on 4th and 8 was 32%. I figure the Big 10 is a pretty good defensive league, but it would probably be a little harder to get a 1st down in the NFL, since that stat would include the best teams in the Big 10 playing the worst and there is more parity in the NFL.

So I figure "around" 30% is a very good estimate. My hunch is that it is probably a bit lower than that. If anyone can find specific data, please share!

**OPLookn** · 03-21-2012, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by TopekaRoy

I'll be honest. I guessed!

I tried to find the stat with Google but the closest I could come was an article that said the conversion rate in the Big 10 on 4th and 8 was 32%. I figure the Big 10 is a pretty good defensive league, but it would probably be a little harder to get a 1st down in the NFL, since that stat would include the best teams in the Big 10 playing the worst and there is more parity in the NFL.

So I figure "around" 30% is a very good estimate. My hunch is that it is probably a bit lower than that. If anyone can find specific data, please share!

No worries, I did some searching too. I found several articles that talked about conversion rates and that most like you said were 3 yards or less. But simply from a logical standpoint if they give you 4 downs to make 10 yards you're not going to convert 8 yards on one down 50% of the time. If they did we'd have 3 downs to convert 10 yards or something like that since 4 yards can be made on every play (8 yards times 50%).