Quote Originally Posted by chief31 View Post
I think a big key to the 4th &8 discussion is the situations. I would think that the majority of those occur on the final drive of a game, or at least a "last desperate gasp" kind of drive.

And, in those situations, defenses tend to be playing "prevent", giving a passing game an advantage.

Though that could be analyzed even more, I think the numbers are higher than many would expect because of the types of game situations where a team would go for it.
I thought the same thing, but according to the article from which I took that graph, only 1st and 3rd quarter statistics were used.

I used only data from the 1st and 3rd quarters to exclude situations hurried by an expiring clock and by desperate teams or teams with large leads playing differently late in games.
I would've expected the success rates to be lower than they are beyond 4th and 3.