[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYzu-2Ykae0"]Chiefs Draft Grades Video[/ame]
Good evening KC fans!! Here's my Draft Grades video for you guys!
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYzu-2Ykae0"]Chiefs Draft Grades Video[/ame]
Good evening KC fans!! Here's my Draft Grades video for you guys!
You're talking about ONE OG per year... compare that to EVERY OTHER non-special team position on a team. Just because teams take OGs in the first doesn't mean those picks represent good value as far as the draft is concerned. You're looking at this with tunnel vision as if the only thing that matters when you're making a selection is pure talent.
For every OG example that was drafted in the first round, I'll pull out 3 3rd round Will Shields and UDFA Brian Waters.
When you're making a decision on which player to draft, you can't just look at talent alone. You have to compare that talent to the talent you project to be available in the later rounds. In the case of OGs, the difference between the best OG on the board and what will be available to you in the next few rounds is quite minimal compared to the drop off between the best player at ANY other position on the field and what will be there for you for your next picks.
For example, let's say you have a hole at QB and a hole at ILB. Would you take Andrew Luck in the first if you knew you could get comparable talent like RG3 in the 2nd round, or would you take Kuechly if you knew the best ILB available in the 2nd round would be Bobby Wagner? In this scenario, Kuechly/RG3> than Luck/Wagner
That's what you're looking at when it comes to OGs. You COULD take Luck in the first and you'll get a great player. There's no denying that DeCastro projects to be a great OG. But if I could fill another hole with, say, Dontari Poe to anchor my 3-4 defense while still getting RG3 in the 2nd, THAT route would be the MUCH better way to go.
Again, this has less to do with DeCastro's talent and more to do with his talent compared to other available talent at his position... which is relevant when discussing the value of the pick. An OG in the first round is a HORRID waste of value. It doesn't matter how talented the player is if you have holes other than OG. The ONLY way I could understand taking an OG in the first is if that's the ONLY position where your team has a hole. Otherwise, you should be selecting BPA.
My point was, if you need it, you draft it. Guard was a major need for the Chiefs, and as I said, if Poe wasn't there, then DeCastro would have been a great value pick anywhere between 11 - 20, regardless of YOU thinking that it isn't. The Chiefs had a major need to address their O-Line in the draft and the fact that they did in rounds 2 and 3 is all the proof anyone needs.
As far as "good value" goes, common sense should tell you it depends on how the player works out & that applies to any position.
I could make the same case against taking a Safety in the top 10 & yet, the Chiefs did just that in 2010.
True, there were key players missing last year, but that doesn't erase the fact that better blocking ( especially pass-blocking ) is needed for this team. Not to mention, those key players were on the field in the final two games at Arrowhead at the end of the 2010 season when the Chiefs O-Line was decisively dominated by the Raiders and Ravens.
Like myself, EmDiggy can clearly see that interior O-Line was a need area & if the Chiefs had taken DeCastro, they would have gotten both, a need player & one of the best football players in the draft, and thereby it would have been good value & blows your "tunnel vision" argument all to hell.
And Waters simply benefited from playing next to Willie Roaf and once Roaf left town, Waters looked like a UDFA, not a Pro Bowler, with opposing D-Lineman continually getting by him unblocked, game in and game out, and year in and year out.
^^What part of that didn't you get ??....I do agree that the Chiefs did take a better route by taking the best NT candidate available with exceptional physical ability ( which they won't get a lot of chances to do ), and then getting a Guard prospect with a world of potential in Jeff Allen in round 2 and another good O-Line candidate in round 3 in Stephenson. They had targeted these 3 players going into the draft and got them.
Some people are still upset that the Chiefs didn't take DeCastro, but that's just hero-worship junk -- especially given the players that they did get with their top 3 picks. Anyone who's willing to cast aside the hero-worship junk & step back and look at things objectively should be able to easily see that the Chiefs covered their 2 biggest needs with the top 3 choices & they did a pretty good job in rounds 4 through 7, as well.
All you are doing is rehashing what was already touched on. What's being refuted, by me, is your statements "Any OG at #11 was a joke" and "you hardly ever see Guards taken in the 1st round' -- not what the Chiefs actually did with their top 3 picks. Therefore, where I am concerned, your rehash is not only off-base, but not even remotely in the ballpark, and doesn't in any way support your statements that are being refuted.
BTW, it'll be interesting to see the Chiefs game in Pittsburgh when Poe has to face DeCastro and his sidekick C Maurkice Pouncey ( who incidentally can play C and OG and was taken at #18 by Pitt. in 2010 ).
Therefore, only somebody living in fantasy-football world would think that DeCastro would not be a good value pick as he would have addressed the teams biggest Offensive need and would most likely have been a Day One starter and instant upgrade to the interior of the Chiefs O-Line.
Last edited by brdempsey69; 05-19-2012 at 03:45 PM.
You guus should give MMO pointers on debating. This is goood stuff.
Again, I said that because you kept banging the drum for the 1st round year after year. I'm all for the OL we took because WE DIDN'T WASTE A 1ST ROUNDER ON A GUARD!
This has nothing to do with my perception of what you type of pick brings good value. It has everything to do with the fact that I would never draft a player that doesn't have a chance to be a cornerstone in the 1st round. Will DeCastro be a great player and probably pro bowler? Yes! Will he be a cornerstone that can continue to be built around for the next decade? Heck no.
And before you bring in the whole "Berry is terrible value because he's a safety" argument, let me just say this. The NFL has evolved since the old days. Safety is a play-making position and can be one of the main focal points of a defense. A guard has absolutely no chance of that.
You REALLY should have just stopped.
But, because I'm such a nice guy, I'll try once again to give you an education because OBVIOUSLY trying to appeal to your common sense isn't working.
So, here it is in black and white:
Notice where OGs are on the chart. Out of 1600 players taken in the first round since 1939, roughly 70 of them were OGs. That's about 4% of 1st round players. I'm sorry you took my comment as OGs "never" being taken in the first round SO literally. But in my defense, I was only 4% off. My bad.
Back to the point.
Here are the starting OGs in 2011 and where they were drafted:
Gallery-1st-2 (as a LT)
There were 253 picks in the 2012 NFL draft, so Iím going to give the UDFAs a pick # of 254 (and thatís being EXTREMELY generous.) The average draft position of the starting NFL OG was #114.
The 2012 NFL Pro Bowl OGs:
Average Pro Bowl OG draft spot- #111
Starting Super Bowl OGs:
Average Super Bowl OG draft spot- #124
Of the 8 OGs that have been taken in the first round that are on this list, only 3 of them were taken in the first 2/3rds of the first round. One of them was Robert Gallery who should be disqualified purely by the fact that he was picked by Al Davis. But if thatís not reason enough, he was originally drafted to be a LT. OMG!! DID YOU HEAR THAT?? A WASHOUT LT is now an OG?? I swear someone said that good college LTs could also be used as good OGs a few posts back. The second, Iupati, was chosen in 2010 by a coaching staff that no longer have jobs with the organization in San Francisco. The third was Carey, who was taken in Miami in 2004, who just like the kid in San Francisco, was taken by a staff that no longer have their jobs.
The other 5 first rounders were taken with the last 9 picks of the first round at 23rd, 26th, 29th, and 32nd. As Iíve said numerous times before now, a starting, Pro Bowl, or even Super Bowl OG does not need to come from the middle of the first round.
Now, even though Iím sure youíll try and argue some off the wall BS argument about this information meaning nothing, why in the hell would ANY self-respecting GM who wants to KEEP their job, spend a mid-first round pick on an OG when the information shows you could, on average, spend a pick somewhere around the middle of the 4th round and EXPECT to draft a starting NFL offensive guard? It doesnít make sense. At some point, your owner is going to come to you and say, ďwe just had a poor year and you spent our mid-first round pick on an offensive guard when you could have filled that hole later in the draft, while upgrading an impact position in the first. Why?Ē The truth is, you wonít have a good answer and youíll lose your damn job.
Letís not forget that we had a at least one Pro Bowl OG here for the past decadeÖ it didnít impact this team for $hit! THAT is the primary reason why you take guards in rounds later than the first. The OG position doesnít IMPACT the game the way almost ANY other position does.
If you were hired as the Chiefs GM before the 2012 draft and Clark Hunt asked you which position you would spend the #11 pick, would you REALLY say youíd take DeCastro? Thereís absolutely no defending that answer. You donít take a freakin OG at #11 overallÖ itís stupidity!
Do yourself a favor and stop arguing this point. You are DEAD wrong. The value represented by selecting an OG at #11 overall is ridiculously poor. You donít plug a hole 103 picks (on average) BEFORE you need toÖ it doesnít make ANY sense!
Donít get angry, improve your argument.
Why don't you cut through the smokescreen and tell it like it is: You posted what you did because of a debate regarding Eric Berry back in early 2011 & you are still puked out about it. You were coming off at the time with responses along the lines of "how dare you commit sacrilege regarding my false god that I worship so reverently" just because I don't see things from YOUR perspective regarding him.
I like the O-Lineman we drafted also, but that does NOT mean that taking DeCastro would have been a wasted pick or bad value -- that is where the misconception is. But read on, and I'll explain that.
Hali would be the closest thing to what you call cornerstone because opposing Offenses must account for him in obvious passing situations because of his pass rush skills. But, prior to 2010, nobody would have looked at Hali as a cornerstone. Even Bowe may not be considered as such by the Chiefs brass, in spite of the Franchise Tag as that doesn't guarantee a long-term contract.
Peoples Exhibit A:
Berry was drafted at #5 in 2010 and given a 6-year 60-million dollar contact with a 34.5 mil guarantee ( old CBA ). If DeCastro had been taken by the Chiefs at #11, he would receive a contract somewhere around 4 years for about 11.5 mill ( about what Poe is going to get ). Given those numbers, DeCastro doesn't sound like a wasted pick or bad value to me, if the Chiefs had gone that route.
DeCastro possesses the capability to have a big impact on both, the running & passing game for ANY teams Offense, and barring injury, he most likely will for the Steelers. By contrast, the Chiefs defense played lights out after RAC took over as HC, and even before that had turned in some good performances WITHOUT Berry and do take note of the fact that Berry was on the field in the final two games in 2010 at Arrowhead when they were decisively defeated.
Peoples Exhibit B:
The #5 overall pick in the 2011 draft -- CB Patrick Peterson. He lists about 6-1 and 220 lbs. and ran 4.32 at the combine in 2011. He has the speed to run with just about any WR in the NFL and returned 4 punts for TD's in 2011. That type of player is more worthy of being selected at #5 than ANY Safety ( and so is a good pass-blocking LT like Okung ).
He's already made a bigger impact for the Cardinals than Berry will EVER make for the Chiefs. Peterson was regarded by everybody as the top DB in the 2011 draft class and some thought he could go #1 overall. Berry wasn't even rated the top Safety coming into the 2010 draft by Mike Mayock and many highly questioned the Chiefs drafting Berry at #5, both before and after the draft.
If you had both of these players available to you at #5 in a hypothetical situation, are you going to tell me that you would take Berry over Peterson? Forget it -- Peterson is clearly the superior talent, hands down.
Bottom line is nobody can rightfully say "Berry was a good pick at #5 ( under old CBA ), but DeCastro at #11 is a wasted pick ( under new CBA )". It is completely illogical.
We're discussing the NFL draft & perspective viewpoints regarding draft selections.
And you aren't trying to appeal to anyone's common sense -- you're being rigid in your opinion & like a horse with blinders on, unable to see the complete horizon.
Of course, you could consider printing out that chart & numbers and if you run out of toilet paper, then the printed chart and numbers will come in handy.
You mentioned earlier about "appealing to my common sense", but I would highly suggest trying to muster some common sense on your own side first, before trying to "appeal" to someone else's.
2) They don't EXPECT any 4th rounder to become a starter -- it's a bonus if they do, but there are many that don't.
The likelihood of any owner going to a GM and saying "we just had a poor year and you spent our mid-first round pick on an offensive guard when you could have filled that hole later in the draft, while upgrading an impact position in the first" is about as likely as a blizzard happening in Hawaii.
GM's get sacked most often because the team isn't progressing anywhere over the course of multiple years or an ownership change.
(continued in next post)
Att Yds Avg LG TD
Larry Johnson 416 1789 4.3 47 17
Michael Bennett 36 200 5.6 41 0
Larry Johnson 158 559 3.5 54 3
Kolby Smith 112 407 3.6 19 2
Shields absence not only effected the games, it effected the entire 2007 season. You are only kidding yourself if you think otherwise. And Waters did not play anywhere near Pro Bowl level after Roaf and Shields retired.
And, do you really think that Ben Roethlisberger saw things from your perspective when the Steelers took DeCastro? Or that Matt Cassel would have seen things from your perspective if the Chiefs had taken DeCastro at #11? FAT CHANCE !!
Here they are:
1) Too much pressure up the middle by opposing Defenses in 2011 with two (2) QB's getting hurt.
2) 32nd in the league in 3rd and short conversions & way too many 3 and outs.
3) 31st in the league in points per game, in spite of the skill position talent that was there ( Charles & Moeaki's injuries not withstanding, but those two had combined for 11 of the Chiefs 44 TD's in 2010 )
4) 27th in the league in yards per game.
5) An all-time franchise low of 18 Offensive TD's.
6) 5 consecutive losses to the Raiders at Arrowhead with one of the biggest problems being the middle of the Raiders Defense obliterating the middle of the Chiefs O-Line.
7) Ryan Lilja being in the last year of his contract & coming off a very poor 2011 season. Plus, he's undersized, on the downside of his career, and at this stage no better than a backup. Won't be surprised if Allen beats him out quickly.
8) DeCastro being the the best interior O-Line prospect to come out in a decade. Great character guy & work ethic and loves football. You know what you are getting with him.
9) If a Safety can by drafted #5 under the old CBA, 2 years ago, then why not the best interior O-Line prospect to come out in over a decade at #11 under the new CBA, to help the teams biggest Offensive need.
10) Other teams aren't offering good trade down value like in previous drafts. Jacksonville only gave a 4th rounder to move from #5 to #7 to take Justin Blackmon. Highly doubtful that anyone picking below the Chiefs was willing to give up a 3rd rounder to move up to #11, that called the Chiefs regarding a trade.
I haven't been wrong about anything -- it's just simply not what you want to hear because it opposes your "horse with blinders on" perspective.
Last edited by brdempsey69; 05-21-2012 at 12:40 AM.
Wow, you'll probably call me a liar but I can't even remember arguing with you about Berry. Maybe I was so mad about it that I had amnesia? Or it could be that I don't take football as seriously as you think I do. All I know is by reading your novel, I came up with one conclusion.
You are desperate to be proven right. Like I said tex, not worth it.
Amnesia, huh? And yet you came out of the blue and stated to me "We could have the best O-Line in history and you'd still say we need O-Lineman" like somebody had rattled your cage or stolen the surprise out of your cereal box.
Must have been puked out about something to come out of the blue with that type of statement.