This is not the 2012 draft which was chalk full of good QB prospects. No, this is 2013 with one of the weakest QB draft classes in recent memory. Wouldn't you know it... our beloved Chiefs will probably have the #1 pick. But of course they do. This is a franchise that rarely drafts QBs (ESPECIALLY in the first round) and when they do, the picks never turn out the way we hoped. So, naturally, when the Chiefs find themselves in the coveted #1 position to take a franchise QB, there isn't an overwhelmingly easy pick to make.
So, what are the options?
This list is my own opinion of who will be in the draft and who should be considered in the first 2 rounds. They are also ranked from greatest to least according to my own opinion and NOT necessarily the order in which they'll be drafted.
Tyler Wilson, 6'3 220lb. Arkansas
"Skill-Set Summary: Wilson has the look of an NFL quarterback. He stands tall in the pocket and reads defenses well. The decision-making he displayed as a junior was very impressive.
Wilson has a strong arm and is an accurate passer. He showed the ability last season to push the ball outside the numbers and move the ball down the field with precision passes. With his size, arm and intellect, the Arkansas signal-caller will most likely be viewed as a possible safe pick to scouts.
While Wilson is a pocket passer, he is not a complete statue. He can move around to buy himself time and take advantage of openings with his legs. It is clear that Wilson is not a running quarterback who will rack up big rushing totals. However, he has enough athleticism to keep a defense honest and avoid some sacks with his legs."
-Charlie Wilson- WalterFootball.com
I think Tyler Wilson should be the QB the Chiefs target. He is the closest thing to a prototypical QB as there is in this draft. His senior season didn't live up to expectations, but with all the drama surrounding Petrino in the offseason, it's at least understandable. That being said, it wasn't like he was horrible either. His rating only dropped from 148 to 143 and threw 6 more picks (probably a result from trying to do too much to help his team during a transitional season). He has a career completion percentage better than 60% and is usually sitting in the 63-65% range.
Here is an article by bleacherreport.com suggesting Wilson could be the steal of the draft: Arkansas Football: Why Tyler Wilson Will Be the Steal of the 2013 NFL Draft | Bleacher Report
NFLsfuture.com thinks his name will be called sometime around picks 10-15 and also have a good scouting report here: Tyler Wilson Scouting Report
The report isn't necessarily what you'd want from your QBOTF, but remember, there isn't an Andrew Luck in this draft.
Mike Glennon, 6'7 235lb. North Carolina St.
His size says Joe Flacco. His strengths say Phillip Rivers with a better motion and stronger arm. His ceiling is probably Matt Shaub. Mel Kiper thinks he could be first off the board if his development progresses well between now and the draft. There's definitely something to take note of with this guy. Glennon has put up monster numbers in a mediocre program at NCSt. Personally, I don't think he's as sure of a bet as Wilson who was successful in the SEC, but I do think he's a better bet than Geno Smith.
Here's the best scouting report I found: Can Mike Glennon be a first rounder? | Inside The War Room | Mock Drafts & Scouting Reports
Aaron Murray 6'1, 211lbs. Georgia (Junior)
No guarantee he's coming out, but if someone gets in his ear and tells him he could be the first QB off the board in a weak QB class, he could declare. I think Murray has just as good of a chance being the first QB taken as anyone else in the '13 draft. Draws comparisons to Drew Brees and with QB size becoming less and less of a factor. He's 6'1, which isn't Doug Flutie short, but it's not Joe Flacco either. Murray has been a starter since he was a redshirt freshman. There's not REAL flaw to his mechanics, foot work, or mobility. Makes good reads with a high completion percentage. He can obviously lead his team to winning seasons. Looks like a winner with no real reason to believe his game wouldn't translate to the next level.
Scouting report: Aaron Murray 2013 NFL Draft mini scouting report - National NFL Draft | Examiner.com
Geno Smith 6'3, 220lbs. West Virginia
Now, we get to Geno Smith. The consensus "top QB" in the draft if you just pay attention to mock drafts. If Smith had finished the season the way he started, I'd probably be all about drafting him. However, I have a tough time trusting any players from the Virginia area. They always seem to come out with immense talent, but don't have the maturity or the smarts to stay out of trouble. I worry about the attitude and culture from that talent base which seems to have be a "me first" kind of attitude. His performance in Austin left a bad taste in my mouth after he was talking trash with fans and UT recruits as the game was being played.
Looking at his season as a whole, it seems like he got a taste of success during the early part of the season and let it get to his head, which then affected the rest of his year. I've seen Smith and Wilson play about the same amount over the last couple years. I saw Wilson more last year and Smith a bit more this season. I think the total package that Wilson presents is much better overall than the athletic ability offered by a Geno Smith selection. I wonder if some of the scouting done on Smith isn't the mind playing tricks on people. There seems to be this thought pattern that Geno Smith is this year's RGIII... and he's not. Smith is not a Vick/RGIII type QB. He's mobile, but not a home run hitter. Think of him as a Steve Young type when it comes to mobility.
Overall, I think Geno Smith is NOT a player worth the #1 overall selection. I worry about his game translating because even though some reports say he can make all the throws, I haven't seen what I'd want out of my franchise QB when it comes to the intermediate routes. Smith in the first round would be a bigger gamble, in my opinion, than Dontari Poe was at #13. I honestly think someone is going to get burned with this guy because of the RGIII comparisons and people expecting Smith to be a different player than what he actually is.
Scouting Report: Geno Smith Scouting Report
Matt Barkley 6'2, 220, USC
What ever happened to Matt Barkley? The next great hype out of USC.
"Skill-Set Summary: Barkley is an extremely well-developed passer with good anticipation and field vision. He is a smart quarterback who is adept at reading defenses and knowing where to go with the ball. Barkley has been prepared well for the NFL as he has operates a pro-style West Coast offense under Lane Kiffin.
Barkley is not a complete statue in the pocket, but he is not a running quarterback who brings a running threat to the table. Barkley has a quality arm, but it doesn't look like as if he has an elite cannon for an arm.
Barkley has excellent intangibles. He is a team leader and a studious, hard worker. Outside of football Barkley does a lot of charity work. He hasn't had any public trouble and looks like an ideal face of the franchise for an NFL team."
-Charlie Wilson- WalterFootball.com
Matt Barkley, in my mind, is the enigma of the 2013 draft. What is he? Is he an elite, franchise-shouldering QB, or is he a flame out like multiple other USC QBs around the league? Barkley is the ultimate boom or bust QB prospect. I'd like to believe he could be the steal of the draft if he's taken in the 2nd round. If Barkley had lived up to his potential in 2012, he'd be the easy #1 pick in the draft. But, he didn't live up to expectations and on top of that, he was injured and missed the last few games of the season. So now, evaluators have to make a decision on whether to draft Barkley based on potential or results. Unlike some of the other QBs in this draft, Barkley has had pro-quality players around him and hasn't been able to do much with it.
Scouting Report: WalterFootball.com: 2013 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Matt Barkley
Ryan Nassib 6'2 220lbs. Syracuse
Ryan Nassib could be this draft's Aaron Rogers/Matt Flynn. He'll probably be a 2nd round pick that a team could draft and develop... into an elite QB. I wouldn't be shocked to see him go late in the first or late in the 2nd where he could step into a solid backup role behind a well-established starter like Matt Shaub or Matt Ryan. There's very little to like about this QB other than his height... which really isn't that bad. Anything negative you can say about this QB is just nit-picking. If the Chiefs are serious about addressing the QB position, would it be absolutely horrible to see them take 2 QBs in the first 2 rounds? In my mind, it would at least let us know that they are serious about correcting the problem. You could do worse than Matt Cassel showing these kids how to be a professional QB. I think Cassel is going to be a great QB coach/OC someday... if not head coach.
Scouting Report: TheFootballExpert.com » Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse
Tyler Bray is another name that could pop up as the offseason grinds on, but I think he's more of a draft and develop type player. Some people are thinking that with his size, he could be the next Peyton Manning but I just don't see it right now. Manning would've been the #1 overall pick if he had come out a year earlier... Bray isn't in the conversation right now.
E.J. Manuel is another name you will hear but even with all of his great physical attributes, he makes worse decisions than JaMarcus Russell. I don't think he's ready to contribute right away and that's what the Chiefs are looking for. E.J. Manuel is another draft and develop type player. He's at least 3-5 years away.
We have 5 MAYBE 6 guys who are going to be the topic of conversation when we discuss the QBs in this draft. Now, as we sit here on the 23rd of December, where are these 6 guys projected to be taken in the draft? My 5 favorite mock drafts are, Walterfootball.com, CBS.com, Drafttek.com, Draftcountdown.com, and footballsfuture.com. Below, I've ranked the QBs in order according to their current mock selected average among these 5 mock drafts.
1. Geno Smith- 3
2. Tyler Wilson- 18
3. Matt Barkley- 19
4. Mike Glennon- 41
5. Ryan Nassib- 44
6. Aaron Murray- NR (hasn't declared)
I think you will see the draft positions all get smaller as we approach the draft, but I expect the QBs to be taken off the board in that order with Mike Glennon perhaps jumping Barkley and Murray jumping Nassib if he chooses to declare. I anticipate a QB to be taken in the top 3. Odds are that it'll be Smith. This may give the Chiefs an opportunity to trade down and accumulate more picks if someone really wants to jump up and snag Smith ahead of Jacksonville or perhaps trade up for Te'o, Jarvis Jones, or someone else. The cost of acquiring the #1 pick overall is steep and will only net the Chiefs a swap of firsts, a 2nd and probably another later pick if not more, so it's gonna be a pretty BIG deal if the Chiefs are able to move out of that #1 pick.
Which teams in the draft need a QB upgrade?
1. Kansas City
15. New York Jets
Amazing, right? All 6 teams in the bottom half of the league... shocking.
If the Chiefs want Tyler Wilson but not at #1 overall, they probably can't trade down any further than #6 with Tennessee because Arizona needs a QB desperately, as does Jacksonville. The question is going to be who do the Chiefs value more going forward as their franchise QB and where do they think they can get him? Could the Chiefs draft the best player available at #1 overall and land their guy with #33? Or, are the Chiefs going to have to take their QB #1 overall? Perhaps they get a chance to trade down and take their QB later in the top 10. There are a few different scenarios that could play out, but these are the guys they have to evaluate and decide on. The free agent market doesn't have an answer and there aren't too many backup QBs worth trading for. But, the teams listed above are the ones the Chiefs are going to have to deal with if they're going to land a new face of the franchise.
Hopefully, the Chiefs can find a way to maximize their value while landing the guy they want instead of what has happened the last few drafts where Pioli absolutely didn't care about value as long as he filled a hole in his mind.