It's way too early to zero in on one particular player. Perhaps after the bowl games, senior bowl, combine, etc. one of the QBs begins to separate himself from the rest of the pack.
All I was trying to do with my article is shine a bit more light on the QB issue than just pretending like Smith and Barkley were the only options. All these mock draft authors are copycats and you don't get a good sense of what these players actually are because everyone just copies what they saw on someone else's mock.
Mocks are fun to look at, but when they all say Geno Smith #1 when there's such obvious flaws about his game, it starts to get ridiculous. Once people really start their evaluations and get clues from front offices around the league, you're going to see the interweb mocks change drastically because none of these guys actually sit down and look at the players themselves.
Smith acts like he's Cam Newton and hasn't even accomplished anything other than beating a mediocre Texas team. Nobody thought Newton had character issues coming out of college either. Now, we know he's rubbing other players around the league raw with his diva attitude. But, if you think about it, it kinda makes sense... the guy DID have to go to JUCO before heading to Auburn. He doesn't have the right mind-set currently. I see a lot of that in Geno but with more "thug" thrown in.
I'm sorry, but I just don't understand the "just draft him" mentality." This isn't a knock on you, Bike and I don't mean to single you out. There are so many people who think like you (along with our current GM) that, if the player who's at the top of our draft board is there when our number is called, then we should just take him. I completely disagree. You have to have some kind of sense as to that kid's market value.
Let's say you go to the store with the intent to purchase a brand new TV, surround sound, and BluRay player. You have $3000 to spend. Are you going to spend all $3k on that TV? Of course not. You try to get the best deal possible to maximize the value of your budget and get everything you need to accomplish your goal. So, while there's definitely nice TVs to be had for $3k, you're not going to get the surround sound you want or the bluray player either. It's all about opportunity cost.
Opportunity cost is a basic economic principal that needs to be applied when we're talking about the draft. If you spend ALL your money on a TV, you can't use that same money to purchase the surround sound and the bluray player. The issue lies, however in market value. The market value for electronics is what we as consumers are willing to spend in cash for any particular piece of equipment based on supply and demand. What is the market value in the draft? The market value for any one particular player is where any given team is willing to pick said player.
If the draft were held today, Wilson would probably be pegged as a mid-late first round pick. According to the pundits, Wilson doesn't present anymore MARKET value than a late first. Obviously, if the Chiefs have Wilson as their target, they value Wilson more than the market does. However, the Chiefs are now in a position of strength where they can do a couple different things. They can draft Wilson and throw away all the remaining value between picks 1 and say, #20. They could continually sell their first round pick for whatever the market would bare (additional picks) for that pick until they felt they were right around the point where they were getting fair value for their selection (Wilson). They could also select a player other than Wilson at #1 overall and trade back into the first round with their 2nd round pick. They have a few different options.
The main point here is that it is vitally important to the sustainability of their future success that this franchise needs to start to find a way to maximize the value of their picks. Jackson at #3 overall and Poe at #11 were pretty big reaches that did NOT maximize the value of the picks the Chiefs had. If the Chiefs could've traded down to #15 or so for Jackson, that would've been maximizing their value. If they could've traded back another 7-10 spots for Poe, THAT would've maximized their value. It may not seem like a very big deal as long as you're getting the guy you want, but the gaps between where those guy were picked and where they SHOULD have been picked were worth somewhere in the range of an additional 3-4 extra second round picks... that's a pretty big deal considering the talent still on the board in the 2nd round. Imagine where this team would be if we had 3 or 4 more Brandon Flowers or Jamaal Charles'.
Geez, I talk too much.