Smith=Cassel Logic

[FranciscoD'anconia]

Can some one explain this to me:

"Because there exists a QB who became a worse player after his best season, therefor anyone who had a season comparable to that player's best season must be a bad player."

That's what I'm hearing over and over. Matt Cassel had a good season and then he sucked. We all know that. Why does that have to do with anything else? Does every personnel guy who studies game film have to go, "Wait. This guy had a season who's numbers are comparable to this Matt Cassel guy's numbers from his best season. Hold on. That must mean that this guy is going to become a bad player." Huh? What? Why would Dorsey or Reid care one bit about what happened to one specific guy who has nothing to do with their 2013 KC Chiefs? So this particular guy we're talking about happens to have been a Chief. How does that mean he has some magical ability to rub off his lack of mojo onto some one else any more than anyone else? Why not cherry pick some QB who then went on to be a better player? Who cares about Matt Cassel!

[FranciscoD'anconia]

Now let's compare what we did to what we could have. Even IF Geno and Smith were the same exact players you still get more from not trading for smith.

Resigning Albert + Geno + 34th pick (2nd round pick of 2013) + Third rounder in 2014 vs. Alex Smith and Luke Joeckel.

Who do you think wins?

On the right side of the equation I'm not seeing, "Player signed with the additional cap space". Albert's number could be more than Smith's, certainly would be if he's franchised, and the early 2nd would be something. You need to see how the entire off season plays out and what the entire roster is before complaining about it. Also, as has been reported several times, the deal isn't done and they're still working out details involving what draft picks the Chiefs would get back from the 9ers. We don't know what that is yet.

[texaschief]

All the reports are assuming the Chiefs are giving up #34 this year. All I've seen is that the Chiefs are trading a 2nd round pick to the 49ers. All the Chiefs have to do is move up one spot from their 3rd round selection and they'll have another 2nd round pick. Reporters are making the jump that it's going to be #34. The deal isn't complete until the 12th and that gives the Chiefs at least 2 weeks to acquire the pick they'll send to SF if it's not #34.

[doobs_05]

Also the other thing you should know about MMH is that he called it with the chiefs going 2-14 (maybe it was 3-13) and A LOT OF POSTERS here gave him a lot of s*it and thought he was dumb for thinking the chiefs were going to lose to the raiders and other "cream puff" teams

[doobs_05]

Also, it's not hard for CANex Smith to get a QBR above 100 when he throws short passes all day, 182 yards 1 TD, one of our CAN QBs put up numbers better then that. Stop the run, make CANex Smith beat you with his arm, game plan for every team vs the chiefs

[FranciscoD'anconia]

Also, it's not hard for CANex Smith to get a QBR above 100 when he throws short passes all day, 182 yards 1 TD, one of our CAN QBs put up numbers better then that. Stop the run, make CANex Smith beat you with his arm, game plan for every team vs the chiefs

That's not exactly true. QB rating does take into account yards per pass play. What you're saying would be true for the completion percentage stat, not the QB rating stat. As far as game plans being to stop the run? You better hope that that's what it is. Wait until you see the offense that Andy Reid unleashes if teams game plan to stop the run instead of the pass.

I really don't care who predicted what record and what player is going to be a bust. That doesn't mean anything to me and has nothing to do with any points I've made. My point is that you are going from the lowest rated QB in the NFL to the third highest. That's a big jump. Couple that with a new great coach who knows the offensive game, and you guys are in for a fun, exciting and very good season. Enjoy it.

[MyManHali]

All the reports are assuming the Chiefs are giving up #34 this year. All I've seen is that the Chiefs are trading a 2nd round pick to the 49ers. All the Chiefs have to do is move up one spot from their 3rd round selection and they'll have another 2nd round pick. Reporters are making the jump that it's going to be #34. The deal isn't complete until the 12th and that gives the Chiefs at least 2 weeks to acquire the pick they'll send to SF if it's not #34.

Why didn't you weigh that in your equation?


There is also a mid 2014 pick which is believed to be a 3rd or 4th round pick depending on how Smith does.

[N TX Dave]

Well guys and gals we might as well give up on the season already because this management is no better than the last one, giving up a draft pick for a bad backup QB from a different team and everyone knows backups are never any good, they are losers that shouldn't even be allowed in the league. Again we are getting a #1 draft pick QB who can say any of this years QB would be any better with the first pick?

Everyone just needs to settle down and see how the team shapes up before falling on their sword.

[matthewschiefs]

Well guys and gals we might as well give up on the season already because this management is no better than the last one, giving up a draft pick for a bad backup QB from a different team and everyone knows backups are never any good, they are losers that shouldn't even be allowed in the league. Again we are getting a #1 draft pick QB who can say any of this years QB would be any better with the first pick?

Everyone just needs to settle down and see how the team shapes up before falling on their sword.

WHAT you mean they can still improve the team in the rest of the offseason and they might have more moves planned? This move doesn't make our roster official? You want us to wait till the whole offseasons over before making our judgements on how this team is going to look. Such outlandish views you have

[N TX Dave]

I just read this and think it states it pretty clear, it also goes on it say that this happened within 24 hours of the combine -
Chiefs options at quarterback were these: 1. Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn and/or Ricky Stanzi
2. Draft a quarterback
3. Another free agent quarterback
The Chiefs chose none of the above.
The Chiefs were in the best possible position of any team to pick out any available quarterback this year, whether that's in free agency, a trade or the draft. And they traded for Alex Smith. What does that tell you about what Andy Reid and John Dorsey thought about this year's crop of free agent and draft-eligible quarterbacks?

[texaschief]

Also, it's not hard for CANex Smith to get a QBR above 100 when he throws short passes all day, 182 yards 1 TD, one of our CAN QBs put up numbers better then that. Stop the run, make CANex Smith beat you with his arm, game plan for every team vs the chiefs

I love this argument against Alex Smith. What's even funnier is that it usually comes from those who love Geno Smith. Last season, Alex Smith average 8 yards per completion. Geno Smith on the other hand, averaged a staggering 8.1. You're not going to throw for a high completion percentage if you're throwing down field on a regular basis. If you love Geno Smith's completion percentage of 71.2, you have to love Alex Smith's of 70.2. These two guys ran essentially the same exact type of offense. If you're going to buy in to all of Geno's over inflated numbers, you have to do the same for Alex.

Why didn't you weigh that in your equation?


There is also a mid 2014 pick which is believed to be a 3rd or 4th round pick depending on how Smith does.

Because I was trying to present a "worst-case" scenario where the Chiefs gave up #34 and a 3rd round pick bringing the total to 800 points. Either way you slice it, the Chiefs are going to give up a pick that falls somewhere between the late 2nd or early 3rd rounds. Either the Chiefs are going to be good and select toward the end of each round next season or they'll be bad and pick at the beginning. Not much wriggle room there. The pick will be worth somewhere between 300 and 200 points. That pick combined with #34 worth 560 pts puts the Chiefs' package around 800 points. If the pick point value slips to something like 600 points, the argument for a QB #1 overall becomes even that much more ludicrous. Instead of a QB #1 overall being essentially 4x better than Alex Smith, now you're saying he's 5x better.

I could care less about the pick we'll have to give up next season. If the rumors of Albert wanting $15m/yr are true, the Chiefs will probably end up with a 3rd round comp pick for him anyway. So, we'll still have a pick in that round. I don't like the idea of giving up #34 for Smith, but if you were ok with the idea of taking a QB with that pick, you should be happy that the Chiefs were able to land the consensus best option on this year's QB market in A. Smith. I don't see the problem. Instead of getting an unknown commodity in one of the rookies, we get a guy who has 8 years experience, a guy our front office thinks will perform well in their system, a guy who's a proven NFL Playoff game winner, and a guy who has gone 20-5 over the last two seasons as a starter in this league. If Smith's numbers were in decline, like say that record is what he did 4 years ago, then I'd be a little more worried. But he's been getting better and better as his career has progressed. Like I've said before, the precedent was set as far as potential backup to starter trades going for 2nd round picks. Shaub, Flynn, Kolb, Palmer, Cassel, etc all went for at least one 2nd round pick if not more. It's the price of doing business in a down year for rookie QB's.

The Chiefs with Andy Reid and John Dorsey basically had their pick of who they wanted to play QB this offseason. They have basically set the bar and said "Alex Smith is the best QB available on this market." So, if teams who still need QB's are thinking they could find an elite talent later in the first or in the 2nd, they've suddenly been given a rude wake-up call. The Chiefs trading for Alex Smith was probably the best thing that could've happened for this rookie QB class. I think that with Alex Smith off the market, Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib just took a giant leap up the draft board. I don't think there's any way Geno falls out of the top 10 at this point. I think it also pretty much guarantees at least 3 QB's off the board in the first round. I think it also makes the Chiefs' #1 pick a lot more valuable. With Jax sitting at #2 and needing a QB, a QB-needy team like Oak, Buf, or NY could get anxious and desperate enough to trade up to ensure they get their guy before Jax gets to pick. I also wouldn't be shocked if Jax decided to trade up one spot to ensure their selection either.

I don't think there's any doubt that Alex Smith was probably the best option available via trade. If Foles were available, I think we'd have Foles instead. Free agency doesn't have any serious options available either. So, if you're a QB-needy team, the next best options are going to be the top 2 or 3 QB's in this draft. It's going to come down to how desperate these teams are at upgrading that spot and how willing they are to risk the best players at that position falling through the first round. Make no mistake about it, the Chiefs' #1 pick just became exponentially more valuable than it was 48 hours ago.