If the Dolphins are willing to offer the 54th overall pick, the Chiefs should just take it and move on.
If the Dolphins are willing to offer the 54th overall pick, the Chiefs should just take it and move on.
I don't know what is going to happen in the future, but I am looking at his past. His past gives me no indication that he can take over, throw for yards and put up points, that is why I look at him as a slightly better version of Cassel. Cassel did the same, didn't throw for very many yards, had a good rating and took care of the football. He looked good handing the ball off to Jamaal just like Alex Smith has looked good handing the ball off to Gore.
That is all I am saying. You have to admit that should be a cause for concern.
Last edited by MyManHali; 04-24-2013 at 10:34 PM.
First of all, this is your vision for the Chiefs' best case scenario: Geno Smith is the stud you hype him up to be and in his rookie year, he represents the best option for the Chiefs to win at the QB position while taking them deep into the playoffs. Most NFL contracts are back-loaded, which means the Chiefs will be in even worse shape to try and sign Albert to a long-term deal. So, you can't just say "give him what he wants" without factoring in the opportunity cost. If Albert leaves, there's no way the Chiefs possess enough assets to try and trade up for an elite LT who will probably be drafted in the top 10 next season. Again, this is assuming the Chiefs make a deep playoff run. If Geno didn't live up to the hype, the Chiefs would be in prime position to take a LT next season... but if the team is horrible, then Geno was horrible and if there's an elite QB to be had, which do you take? At least this way, if the Alex Smith experiment goes horribly wrong, the Chiefs will at least have their elite talent at the LT and be in position to take an elite QB next season. Again, if you went the other route, and had a horrible season, you would've paid Albert $9m this year, watch him walk and still need a QB AND a LT.
Unlike so many jaded Chiefs fans, I personally don't think the Chiefs are all that far from being a serious force in this league. I honestly think they're a "good" not great QB away from being a top 6 to 10 team in the NFL. They have one of, if not THE best rushing attacks in the league. They've got a ton of talent on defense with a lot of depth in the secondary. They've got 2 great pass rushers and good, young talent on the D-line. The WRs have loads of talent, the TE's aren't horrible and the O-line already has at least 4 starters even without Albert returning.
The biggest problem on this team was the absolutely atrocious QB play. The defense was hurt because they were always on the field due to the lack of variation to the offense and the fact that Cassel/Quinn couldn't stop turning the ball over. I don't care how much you want to blame the O-line (which somehow was good enough to plow the road for the best rushing offense in the league) or the defense who was always playing on their own side of the 50, the fact remains that this team is drafting #1 overall because they had THE WORST production from that #1 position on the football field.
You put that same rushing offense on a team that has half the turnovers the Chiefs did last season along with a starting defense with 7 first round picks, Houston, and Flowers, and you've got a team that is ABSOLUTELY ready to make a run. There's a reason why a lot of people were picking KC to win the division last year and why there are so many picking KC to darkhorse this year.
Both Branden Albert and Geno Smith represent the largest gambles this franchise could make this offseason. Neither are known commodities going into next season. Albert's back doesn't make you excited to sign him to a long-term deal. Nobody knows what Geno will do at the next level. Granted, we don't know what Joekel is going to do either, but you've got a much better idea as he played against the best competition in the country this past season and practiced against Von Miller since he was a freshman. The guy never missed a game and has ZERO health or character concerns. You can throw out any ultra-inflated stat you want about Geno playing in a spread/bubble screen offense with elite WR's matched up against CB's at James Madison University or Big 12 defenses, but the fact remains that he IS NOT the elite type of QB we've seen in years past. He IS NOT anymore of a down field passer than Alex Smith as evidenced by his .1yd avg MORE than Alex. Does he have a bigger arm? Yes. But all he did in West Virginia was check down and throw bubble screens... which is what you hate so much about Alex Smith.
It's a pretty simple equation:
top 15 LT with a sketchy back for $9m + 3000 draft points for an unproven QB who isn't even rated in the top 20 in his own draft class
$4.5m for the consensus BPA at #1 LT + 250 draft points for a QB with a sketchy injury past
The $9 million salaries cancel because Albert/Smith will probably end up making close to the same amount. The 2nd round pick in this year's draft basically cancels because the Chiefs will recoup that pick in the trade of Albert to whichever team wants him. So, when it comes to the QB position, we're basically talking about Geno for 3000 pts or Alex for 300pts (AT THE MOST) I guess I'm crazy for thinking Geno isn't worth 10x MORE than Alex.
The problem with Geno (outside of attitude which I won't get into) is that scouts don't believe he can make the progressive reads to run that style of offense at the NFL level. Geno had a 26 wonderlic score which, while isn't horrible, is only 6th best in this class. Of the Super Bowl winning QB's still playing, the average score is 30.7 with only Big Ben scoring lower than a 26 with his 25. Nassib was the highest at 41. Kaepernick had a 37. Stanzi got a 30. Alex Smith got a 40. Should your pick be based on this test? Absolutely not. Vince Young scored a 6 and got picked #7 overall. But, this test IS relevant when it comes to QBs because it indicates how quickly a QB may be able to pick up new lingo, a whole new system, process what he sees quickly, understand his reads and therefor his progressions. Andy Reid's offense is all about being able to know where to go with the ball. Despite what you WANT the offense to look like, Reid needs to have a QB who can do all those things and one of Alex Smith's greatest attributes is exactly what you hate and that is he's a great game manager. He knows where to go with the ball, he knows when to check down and take what the defense gives him. He knows how to read defenses and not turn the ball over by thinking his arm is bigger than what it is. I'd take I.Q. over talent any day of the week. How many times have you seen a QB like Phillip Rivers make dumb decisions because he thinks he can put the ball anywhere he wants? How many QB's like Vick or RGIII have we seen take unnecessary risks with their health because they thought they could make a great athletic play instead of the smart decision of throwing the ball away or eating a sack? Sure, every now and then they make a few spectacular plays, but the guys getting the hardware and winning trophies are the smart ones. Hell, Brett Favre leads the world in INT's because he had all the talent in the world but made dumb decisions with his arm. The talent is great, but you can't fake what's between the ears... no matter how many times Geno Smith brings up that point.
Wanting an elite QB is something we all have in common. Thinking Geno Smith is that guy, is not. Thinking Andy Reid's offensive system is Tom Brady or Peyton Manning dependent is also false. Reid said that he's been a fan of Alex Smiths since he came into the league. It's not because he's an elite QB. Reid has identified traits in Alex Smith that he knows he can utilize at an elite level in this offense. Expecting elite production from Alex Smith in an offensive system that highlights what he does best is not the same as expecting him to be Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Drew Brees. Put Tom Brady in a zone-read offense like what RGIII or Kaepernick run and he's no longer elite. Put Peyton manning on a team with a controlling offensive coordinator and he's no longer elite. Put Rich Gannon on the Chiefs instead of the Raiders and... oh wait. lol The point that I'm making and a few others have tried to make is that it isn't necessarily plug and play when it comes to QBs. There are so many factors that go into creating an "elite" QB that just because a guy doesn't measure up to whichever standard we have created in our own psyche, that doesn't mean that QB can't be elite in an entirely different way. Just look at Russell in Seattle for instance.
You're all angry because Alex Smith doesn't throw down the field enough and that he only averages 7.9yds per completion. But look at the top 10 QBs from last season:
Those were the top 11 QBs from last season compared to Alex Smith. Rogers, Peyton, RGIII Ryan, Brady, Brees, Schaub, Flacco... I'd say those were all in the "elite" category. Your biggest complaint about Alex Smith is that he's a "game manager" and won't throw down the field. I must fail to see the giant difference between the "elite who throw down the field" and our puny little game manager who takes a back seat to only RGIII and Peyton by mere inches of a yard. This is a "what have you done lately" league and lately, Alex Smith has proven himself to be an above average QB (at worst) over the past 2 seasons and the type of QB Andy Reid has been dreaming of running his offense. We've seen what the uber-talented QBs have done in his system with Vick, McNabb, and Vince Young... and it wasn't all that great. But when he had guys like Kolb and Foles running the offense, the entire team took off and won games.
The whole point is that when you put a QB in a system that highlights the QB's talents, you can get elite production. Put Cam Newton and RGIII in a system where they spread the defense thin, air it out or take off running, and you'll get elite production from that guy. Put a smart, experienced player in a system where they can make reads, check at the line and pick apart a defense with check downs and a good running game, and you'll get elite production like we see from Peyton, Brady, and Brees. Pair a guy with an elite defense and give him a chance to feel comfortable in the pocket with good protection, and you'll get a ring like Flacco. Get a guy with elusiveness, top end speed, and a gun for an arm, you'll get elite production from guys like Kaepernick, Russell, and sometimes Mike Vick. (I find it amusing when people say Kaepernick did so much better than Smith in that offense. They were completely different offensive systems. I don't remember seeing Alex Smith running too many read options.) Start miss matching QBs and schemes and you'll get crap production. Alex Smith was drafted #1 overall because of his production running an offense very similar to Andy Reid's in college. Since he was drafted, Smith has only been in a similar system twice... and those were these past two years where he has put up career numbers.
If a QB is asked to be someone they're not, that won't bode well for ANY team or ANY QB. If you're expecting to see an offense that throws 25-40 yards down the middle of the field on a consistent basis, you're absolutely mistaken. Reid's offense doesn't require that play on a consistent basis, therefor, the system doesn't require a QB to do that on a consistent basis. The system requires a QB who can read a defense, make checks, go through progressions, and not turn the ball over. Quite frankly, if the Chiefs drafted Geno and asked him to be that guy, I don't think it would be fair to Geno. That's not his game. He's a pocket passer who needs an offensive coordinator to design plays to get his WRs open with one or two different checks and only 2 or 3 options. I think Geno Smith would do well in an offense similar to the one Carolina ran with Newton or the one they're running in Miami with Tannehill.
I've spent too much time on this subject debating a moot point. The Chiefs' new QB is Alex Smith. They're trading Albert to Miami for a 2nd round pick and they're taking a LT #1 overall. That's happening. It's practically done. I'm sorry I can't show you the logic that one of the best coaches and one of the best personnel guys in the league are implementing because it's quite sound and ingenious with tons of foresight and preparation.
I blame myself.
You do remember that before Cassel stepped into the starting spot for the injured Tom Brady, the last time he started a game was in high school, 8 years before that, right? The only reason he was a starter for the Chiefs was because Pioli drafted him in New England. The only reason he kept his job unconditionally was because Pioli didn't want to admit he was wrong. Cassel was a product of a poor Chiefs administration and horrible coaching once he got here.
Alex Smith was #1 overall and has had tons more experience at the NFL level coming into his tenure with the Chiefs than what Cassel had... and Smith is 2 years younger. They're not the same player. Even if all Smith does is hand off the ball as much as Cassel did, when he's asked to put it in the air, he won't be throwing it to the wrong colored jersey. If Cassel could've managed the game half as well has he did this past year, the Chiefs could've at least been .500.
Hopefully we will pick up some offensive weapons too.
Albert doesn't factor into the equation of drafting a LT, should they decide to.
Well if we keep Albert (I wish we do) Udall still take Fisher. He's much more athletic