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Thread: Chiefs Scoring Woes?

  1. #1
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    Default Chiefs Scoring Woes?


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    I keep hearing from the national sports media that the Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs, but is this true? We are giving up an average of 12.3 points per game, the best in the NFL. As far as I know we still get to use the same defense in the playoffs. Why is it assumed we will suddenly have to score more points?

    I love to crunch numbers, so I looked at our first 8 games and did some analyses. Here is what I found:

    1. In the Chiefs worst offensive performances they scored 17 points (twice). In the Chiefs worst defensive performances they gave up 17 points (twice). If the Chiefs only scored 17 points in every game this year, they would have won 6, lost 0 and tied 2 games (not taking overtime into account). If the Chiefs had given up 17 points in every game, they still would have been 6-0-2. To put it another way, our offense has never scored less points than our defense gave up in their worst games!

    2. None of the teams we have played this year has scored more points than their season averages! Here are the numbers:

    Team Average PPG Points scored
    against Chiefs
    % of Average
    Jax 10.8 2 19%
    Dal 28.8 16 56%
    Phi 22.0 16 73%
    NYG 17.9 7 39%
    Ten 20.7 17 82%
    Oak 18.0 7 39%
    Hou 17.9 16 92%
    Cle 18.5 17 92%
    Cumulative
    Average PPG
    Cumulative
    Vs. Chiefs
    Cumulative
    % of Average
    154.1 91 59%

    3. The Chiefs are averaging 24.0 points per game. I looked at the likely and possible AFC playoff teams we might face and calculated what they would score if the Chiefs defense held them to 59% of their average points per games.

    Team Average PPG Expected Points
    vs. Chiefs
    Den 42.9 25
    NE 22.4 13
    Cin 24.6 14
    Ind 26.7 16
    SD 24 14
    Ten 20.7 12
    Bal 21.4 13
    Mia 21.7 13


    Notice that among these 8 teams only Denver would score more than the Chiefs average of 24 points per game and that is only by one point!

    3. There are only 3 teams in the AFC that are scoring more points per game than the Chiefs.

    1. Den 42.9
    2. Ind 26.7
    3. Cin 24.6
    4. Chiefs 24.0
    4. SD 24.0

    The Chiefs are scoring almost as much as the next 2 teams ahead of us. Only Denver outscores the Chiefs by a wide margin.

    Barring injury, the Chiefs offense should continue to improve in the 2nd half of the season, but even if they don't, their defense is good enough to win or at least keep the games competitive. I reject the argument that the Chiefs can't score enough to win in the playoffs. They are already doing it.
    Last edited by TopekaRoy; 10-28-2013 at 10:21 PM.
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    So true!!!! The "talking heads" won't take us seriously until we put up 40 points against somebody. But who cares? These 4th quarter wins are hard on my ulcer, but I'd rather be 8-0 with 8 close wins, than be 5-3 or 6-2 having blown a few teams out. I'd rather we win the next 8 games by a combined total of 8 points than go 4-4 for the next 8 games and blow out a couple of teams. We aren't "flashy" and our wins may lack "bling", but I LIKE WINNING!!!!!

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    All I have to say is I have yet to see this team play from behind for very long before the offense seems to score, and the Defense comes through. I think this offense can score when the want to, but it so conservative to prevent turn overs, that if the first designed option is not open, they immediately go to the safety values instead of a second or third progression.

    My problem is that we have become so spoiled with the defense is that we expect it every game. What happens when they play an offense that keeps them in check. Can our offense get into a trading/shoot out situation if they can't kill the clock like they always seem to do in the 4th qtr.
    Last edited by Seek; 10-30-2013 at 01:48 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefster View Post
    The key to playing a high scoring offense like the Donks is ball control, ball control, ball control! We do not want to get into a shootout with Manning. Move the ball using several plays that eats a lot of clock which keeps our defense fresh and Manning on the sideline. A relatively low scoring affair favors the Chiefs.

    THIS THIS AND MORE THIS

    If the chiefs are able to do what they did in the first half against Cleveland keeping the ball for over 20 minutes keeping Manning on the sideline then the Chiefs will win that game.

    I've been saying for weeks it's going to take an offense like the Chiefs to beat Denver .
    ​BAN ROY


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    Quote Originally Posted by Seek View Post
    All I have to say is I have yet to see this team play from behind for very long before the offense seems to score, and the Defense comes through. I think this offense can score when the want to, but it so conservative to prevent turn overs, that if the first designed option is not open, they immediately go to the safety values instead of a second or third progression.

    My problem is that we have become so spoiled with the defense is that we expect it every game. What happens when they play an offense that keeps them in check. Can our offense get into a trading/shoot out situation if they can't kill the clock like they always seem to do in the 4th qtr.
    You said it yourself when the chiefs are trailing the offense marches down and gives us the lead right back we haven't trailed for very long in ANY game thus far, so saying our offense is too conservative is false, they do what they need to do to win football games. 8-0, until proven wrong there should be no arguement about too conservative

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    Quote Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
    we outscore every AFC playoff team except the Donkeys. To beat them either our defense or our offense would have to play slightly above average. Since they are a bitter division rival I think the Chiefs could do that especially if we have home field advantage.
    Always love stat crunching. Have you taken into account what percentage of opponents' average PPG The Broncos are allowing?

    Not that the stats are a clear indicator of which team would win a game. (That's why they play the game) But, clearly, it is a huge part of what leads media to lean toward The Donkos, and against The Chiefs. So, playing stat games is more than fair for the subject.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan View Post
    So true!!!! The "talking heads" won't take us seriously until we put up 40 points against somebody. But who cares? These 4th quarter wins are hard on my ulcer, but I'd rather be 8-0 with 8 close wins, than be 5-3 or 6-2 having blown a few teams out. I'd rather we win the next 8 games by a combined total of 8 points than go 4-4 for the next 8 games and blow out a couple of teams. We aren't "flashy" and our wins may lack "bling", but I LIKE WINNING!!!!!

    Nah. 10-0 (or even 9-1) having beat The Donkos 14-10 would change the medias tune.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chief31 View Post
    Nah. 10-0 (or even 9-1) having beat The Donkos 14-10 would change the medias tune.
    probably not, last Im hearing media saying they think the AFC representative is the bengals vs the NFC Seahawks down on the donks already

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    Quote Originally Posted by chief31 View Post
    Always love stat crunching. Have you taken into account what percentage of opponents' average PPG The Broncos are allowing?
    I have, now!

    7 of Denver's opponents have scored more than their season averages against them. Only the Redskins have scored less.

    Broncos total points allowed: 218
    Opponents Cumulative average: 160.3 ppg
    % of averages: 136%

    Chiefs projected points against Broncos: Chiefs average 24.0 PPG X 1.36 = 32.6

    Projected final score: Chiefs 32.6-Broncos 25.3

    Let's adjust for home field advantage (3 points) and round off to the nearest point.
    In Denver: Chiefs 31-Broncos 27
    In KC: Chiefs 34-Broncos 24

    I like it!
    Last edited by TopekaRoy; 11-01-2013 at 05:12 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by topekaroy View Post
    i have, now!

    7 of denver's opponents have scored more than their season averages against them. Only the redskins have scored less.

    Broncos total points allowed: 218
    opponents cumulative average: 160.3 ppg
    % of averages: 136%

    chiefs projected points against broncos: Chiefs average 24.0 ppg x 1.36 = 32.6

    projected final score: Chiefs 32.6-broncos 25.3

    let's adjust for home field advantage (3 points) and round off to the nearest point.
    In denver: chiefs 31-broncos 27
    in kc: chiefs 34-broncos 24

    i like it!
    whats not to like??? I love it!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin5772002 View Post
    probably not, last Im hearing media saying they think the AFC representative is the bengals vs the NFC Seahawks down on the donks already
    I'm hearing the Colts because they have already beaten the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks. Cincy beat the Packers and Patriots, but lost to the Bears, Browns and Dolphins. Those are pretty bad losses. Of course Indy lost to the Dolphins and Chargers so who knows ...
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