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Thread: Chiefs Scoring Woes?

  1. #1
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    Default Chiefs Scoring Woes?


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    I keep hearing from the national sports media that the Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs, but is this true? We are giving up an average of 12.3 points per game, the best in the NFL. As far as I know we still get to use the same defense in the playoffs. Why is it assumed we will suddenly have to score more points?

    I love to crunch numbers, so I looked at our first 8 games and did some analyses. Here is what I found:

    1. In the Chiefs worst offensive performances they scored 17 points (twice). In the Chiefs worst defensive performances they gave up 17 points (twice). If the Chiefs only scored 17 points in every game this year, they would have won 6, lost 0 and tied 2 games (not taking overtime into account). If the Chiefs had given up 17 points in every game, they still would have been 6-0-2. To put it another way, our offense has never scored less points than our defense gave up in their worst games!

    2. None of the teams we have played this year has scored more points than their season averages! Here are the numbers:

    Team Average PPG Points scored
    against Chiefs
    % of Average
    Jax 10.8 2 19%
    Dal 28.8 16 56%
    Phi 22.0 16 73%
    NYG 17.9 7 39%
    Ten 20.7 17 82%
    Oak 18.0 7 39%
    Hou 17.9 16 92%
    Cle 18.5 17 92%
    Cumulative
    Average PPG
    Cumulative
    Vs. Chiefs
    Cumulative
    % of Average
    154.1 91 59%

    3. The Chiefs are averaging 24.0 points per game. I looked at the likely and possible AFC playoff teams we might face and calculated what they would score if the Chiefs defense held them to 59% of their average points per games.

    Team Average PPG Expected Points
    vs. Chiefs
    Den 42.9 25
    NE 22.4 13
    Cin 24.6 14
    Ind 26.7 16
    SD 24 14
    Ten 20.7 12
    Bal 21.4 13
    Mia 21.7 13


    Notice that among these 8 teams only Denver would score more than the Chiefs average of 24 points per game and that is only by one point!

    3. There are only 3 teams in the AFC that are scoring more points per game than the Chiefs.

    1. Den 42.9
    2. Ind 26.7
    3. Cin 24.6
    4. Chiefs 24.0
    4. SD 24.0

    The Chiefs are scoring almost as much as the next 2 teams ahead of us. Only Denver outscores the Chiefs by a wide margin.

    Barring injury, the Chiefs offense should continue to improve in the 2nd half of the season, but even if they don't, their defense is good enough to win or at least keep the games competitive. I reject the argument that the Chiefs can't score enough to win in the playoffs. They are already doing it.
    Last edited by TopekaRoy; 10-28-2013 at 09:21 PM.
    ***Official Chiefs Crowd Game Thread Starter***

    Originally Posted by Name Withheld
    I don't think anything that's what wrong is nearly Smiths Falls we have no offense of line I think the coaches are free to call certain place I think he would absolutely do better with a different office of coordinator

  2. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
    I'm hearing the Colts because they have already beaten the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks. Cincy beat the Packers and Patriots, but lost to the Bears, Browns and Dolphins. Those are pretty bad losses. Of course Indy lost to the Dolphins and Chargers so who knows ...
    I really wish we would have gone for a TE in trade we need all the weapons we can get so we can make a legitimate run at the trophy this year, I still think we are a good TE and WR shy of that, but mcCluster looking good in that slot position so who knows...

    Wouldn't it suck if we won the Super Bowl this year? FOR TONY GONZALEZ...hahaha

  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin5772002 View Post
    I really wish we would have gone for a TE in trade we need all the weapons we can get so we can make a legitimate run at the trophy this year, I still think we are a good TE and WR shy of that, but mcCluster looking good in that slot position so who knows...

    Wouldn't it suck if we won the Super Bowl this year? FOR TONY GONZALEZ...hahaha
    Lol. Let's give Fasano another week or two to see what he can do. I think he will improve. Dex is a good weapon if he is used right. With McGrath. Hemingway and Avery, we have a lot of potential if they would all just play up to their abilities. With a tougher 2nd half of the schedule, I think we will start to see more production on offense. These guys are very competitive.
    ***Official Chiefs Crowd Game Thread Starter***

    Originally Posted by Name Withheld
    I don't think anything that's what wrong is nearly Smiths Falls we have no offense of line I think the coaches are free to call certain place I think he would absolutely do better with a different office of coordinator

  4. #23
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    when your 8-0 everyone's got a bulls eye on ya. and since we're coming back from 2-14 we get all the slams
    trust but verify
    http://www.chiefscrowd.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=1540&dateline=1380047  325]

  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin5772002 View Post
    probably not, last Im hearing media saying they think the AFC representative is the bengals vs the NFC Seahawks down on the donks already
    well bengals lost to miami last night..what will they say next?

  6. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopekaRoy View Post
    I have, now!

    7 of Denver's opponents have scored more than their season averages against them. Only the Redskins have scored less.

    Broncos total points allowed: 218
    Opponents Cumulative average: 160.3 ppg
    % of averages: 136%

    Chiefs projected points against Broncos: Chiefs average 24.0 PPG X 1.36 = 32.6

    Projected final score: Chiefs 32.6-Broncos 25.3

    Let's adjust for home field advantage (3 points) and round off to the nearest point.
    In Denver: Chiefs 31-Broncos 27
    In KC: Chiefs 34-Broncos 24

    I like it!
    I LIKE your numbers!!!

  7. #26
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    ^^ I like those numbers as well. Not sure what's going to happen in Buffalo on Sunday, but I'd love a season sweep of the Donkeys.

    Many people are SO convinced that the Donkeys are going to walk all over the Chiefs, but, I'm not convinced, and I'll believe it when I see it.

  8. #27
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    turnovers and INT's will tell the story. they always do. who wins this battle may come out on top
    trust but verify
    http://www.chiefscrowd.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=1540&dateline=1380047  325]

  9. #28
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    "The diffrence is the Chiefs have been winning their games by 3, and my broncos have been winning theirs by 21. If anyone actually thinks the chiefs have a chance in this game they don’t understand football very well. It’s simple math. The chiefs are going to have to score 30 points to win and that’s just not going happening."
    ……………………………………………………………………….
    Should check before you make uniformed comments, here’s common opponents:Jags- Chiefs by 26, Broncos by 16
    Cowboys- Chiefs by 1, Broncos by 3
    Eagles- Chiefs by 10, Broncos by 32
    Giants- Chiefs by 24, Broncos by 17
    Raiders- Chiefs by 17, Broncos by 16
    I see ONE blowout by Denver there, 3 of 5 we won by bigger margin…….

    ummmm we outscored more the same apponents as denver 3 times

  10. #29
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    I don't think KC scores over 30 against Denver

    I'll gladly eat crow if they do tho

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    ^^ I like those numbers as well. Not sure what's going to happen in Buffalo on Sunday, but I'd love a season sweep of the Donkeys.

    Many people are SO convinced that the Donkeys are going to walk all over the Chiefs, but, I'm not convinced, and I'll believe it when I see it.
    Part of me almost wonders if it would be better overall if they lost this week. It would take the pressure off of the idea of an undefeated season, and then the media would undoubtedly start saying "I told you the Chiefs arent good," giving the team some fire and motivation to go to Denver and destroy the Donks.

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