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Thread: Chiefs Scoring Woes?

  1. #1
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    Default Chiefs Scoring Woes?


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    I keep hearing from the national sports media that the Chiefs can't score enough points to win in the playoffs, but is this true? We are giving up an average of 12.3 points per game, the best in the NFL. As far as I know we still get to use the same defense in the playoffs. Why is it assumed we will suddenly have to score more points?

    I love to crunch numbers, so I looked at our first 8 games and did some analyses. Here is what I found:

    1. In the Chiefs worst offensive performances they scored 17 points (twice). In the Chiefs worst defensive performances they gave up 17 points (twice). If the Chiefs only scored 17 points in every game this year, they would have won 6, lost 0 and tied 2 games (not taking overtime into account). If the Chiefs had given up 17 points in every game, they still would have been 6-0-2. To put it another way, our offense has never scored less points than our defense gave up in their worst games!

    2. None of the teams we have played this year has scored more points than their season averages! Here are the numbers:

    Team Average PPG Points scored
    against Chiefs
    % of Average
    Jax 10.8 2 19%
    Dal 28.8 16 56%
    Phi 22.0 16 73%
    NYG 17.9 7 39%
    Ten 20.7 17 82%
    Oak 18.0 7 39%
    Hou 17.9 16 92%
    Cle 18.5 17 92%
    Cumulative
    Average PPG
    Cumulative
    Vs. Chiefs
    Cumulative
    % of Average
    154.1 91 59%

    3. The Chiefs are averaging 24.0 points per game. I looked at the likely and possible AFC playoff teams we might face and calculated what they would score if the Chiefs defense held them to 59% of their average points per games.

    Team Average PPG Expected Points
    vs. Chiefs
    Den 42.9 25
    NE 22.4 13
    Cin 24.6 14
    Ind 26.7 16
    SD 24 14
    Ten 20.7 12
    Bal 21.4 13
    Mia 21.7 13


    Notice that among these 8 teams only Denver would score more than the Chiefs average of 24 points per game and that is only by one point!

    3. There are only 3 teams in the AFC that are scoring more points per game than the Chiefs.

    1. Den 42.9
    2. Ind 26.7
    3. Cin 24.6
    4. Chiefs 24.0
    4. SD 24.0

    The Chiefs are scoring almost as much as the next 2 teams ahead of us. Only Denver outscores the Chiefs by a wide margin.

    Barring injury, the Chiefs offense should continue to improve in the 2nd half of the season, but even if they don't, their defense is good enough to win or at least keep the games competitive. I reject the argument that the Chiefs can't score enough to win in the playoffs. They are already doing it.
    Last edited by TopekaRoy; 10-28-2013 at 09:21 PM.
    ***Official Chiefs Crowd Game Thread Starter***

    Originally Posted by Name Withheld
    I don't think anything that's what wrong is nearly Smiths Falls we have no offense of line I think the coaches are free to call certain place I think he would absolutely do better with a different office of coordinator

  2. #31
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    Average points teams give up

    Tennesse 20.9

    Oakland 21.4
    Cleveland 22.4

    Dallas 23.2

    Philly 26.4

    Houston 27.7

    NYG 27.9

    Jags 33

    (average is 25.3625)

    Did you calculate your scores with how the chiefs are scoring against teams and their average?
    or were you just using defense in that calulation?

    (not being a dick legit question)
    Last edited by doobs_05; 11-01-2013 at 06:56 PM.

  3. #32
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    Baltimore 21.1

    Colts 18.7 (the two teams denver has faced differently then KC so far)

  4. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by doobs_05 View Post
    Average points teams give up
    (average is 25.3625)

    Did you calculate your scores with how the chiefs are scoring against teams and their average?
    or were you just using defense in that calulation?
    No, I didn't but it wouldn't make much difference. Our opponents are allowing 25.3645 ppg and Chiefs are averaging 24.0 ppg, so the difference is only about 1 point per game. But in a hypothetical match-up against a specific opponent (the Broncos for example) other teams average points allowed aren't really relevant since those teams aren't involved in that particular game.

    You would also need to look at how many points each of our opponents have allowed relative to every one of their opponents season averages (61 games at this point), but that gets far too complicated to deal with here. The Chiefs have played some good defenses and some bad defenses, so my guess is that with that large of a sample size, it would all "average out."
    ***Official Chiefs Crowd Game Thread Starter***

    Originally Posted by Name Withheld
    I don't think anything that's what wrong is nearly Smiths Falls we have no offense of line I think the coaches are free to call certain place I think he would absolutely do better with a different office of coordinator

  5. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by doobs_05 View Post
    Average points teams give up

    Tennesse 20.9

    Oakland 21.4
    Cleveland 22.4

    Dallas 23.2

    Philly 26.4

    Houston 27.7

    NYG 27.9

    Jags 33

    (average is 25.3625)

    Did you calculate your scores with how the chiefs are scoring against teams and their average?
    or were you just using defense in that calulation?

    (not being a dick legit question)
    I just KNEW that somebody was going to add that in. :)

  6. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by doobs_05 View Post
    I don't think KC scores over 30 against Denver
    I too don't think that is very likely.

    Quote Originally Posted by doobs_05 View Post
    I'll gladly eat crow if they do tho
    Screw the crow! I don't care how many points we score against the damned donks....So long as it is 1 more point than they score.

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