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Thread: Webnews: Chiefs wont hold back on Colts, except perhaps injured

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    Post Webnews: Chiefs wont hold back on Colts, except perhaps injured


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    By Darin Gantt
    Even though the most likely scenarios have the Chiefs and Colts meeting in the first round of the playoffs, this weeks not a time to hold back for strategic reasons. Because of the tiebreakers that come into play for both teams, the Chiefs appear destined for the AFCs top Wild Card berth, and the Colts… Read more…

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    Good article. Personally, I think Reid should sit anyone who he feels is not 110% healed from injury and tell whoever does play to go full blast. We want to win this game for a lot of reasons, but not at the risk of re-injuring some of our key players. If we are losing by a substantial margin then sit some more of the starters. If it is close late in the game then go ahead and put in any players that you kept out and finish it with a win. In short, adapt your tactics to the situation.

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    If we have the chance to get 1 seed we play to win the game and dominate!!!!!!!!

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    I think the Chiefs should play all out to win the next game. People are talking as if the odds are astronomical that we wind up as the number one seed in the conference. Well I'm not a statistician, but for a 9 point spread ( which I believe is how much the Donks are favored by this weekend ), that converts to an expected win percentage of approximtely 74%. Well that means that the Donks chances of LOSING this game are 26% or slightly greater than one in four. And that is just this weekend. Their odds of losing should be even slightly higher the following weekend when they play the Faders. I invite anyone to estimate the odds of our winning two and the Donks losing one of the next two. It is certainly far from astronomical and worth a full effort by Reid and company.

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    Oops, sorry. The spread for the Donks/Texans is actually 10.5, so the Donks losing probability is about 20% which is still pretty good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NJChiefs View Post
    I think the Chiefs should play all out to win the next game. People are talking as if the odds are astronomical that we wind up as the number one seed in the conference. Well I'm not a statistician, but for a 9 point spread ( which I believe is how much the Donks are favored by this weekend ), that converts to an expected win percentage of approximtely 74%. Well that means that the Donks chances of LOSING this game are 26% or slightly greater than one in four. And that is just this weekend. Their odds of losing should be even slightly higher the following weekend when they play the Faders. I invite anyone to estimate the odds of our winning two and the Donks losing one of the next two. It is certainly far from astronomical and worth a full effort by Reid and company.
    You hit the nail on the head NJ! I'm confident the donks will win this weekend, but I think they have a SUBSTANTIAL chance of losing to the raiders. That game is in oakland and the raiders are likely to be trying hard to end the season on a positive note. I think we have to do our very best to beat the colts on Sunday, but at the same time not "push" any of our injured starters to come back too early and risk losing them for the playoffs. Reid has a TOUGH decision to make on this game and I am damn glad I don't have to make that decision.

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    Personally, I don't think the Donkeys will lose either of their last 2 games.

    For the Chiefs, yes they should try to play well and try to win, but they do not have to risk everything or show all their cards in either of these games. The primary objective is to have a healthy Chiefs squad going into the post-season.

    The truth is, the Chiefs have played better on the road than they have at home this year & having home-field advantage and a 1st round bye has been completely worthless the last 3 times that they had it, anyways. Having 5th seed is perfectly OK by me, and besides, I want a 3rd crack at the Donks in Denver because the Chiefs have owned the Donkeys in Denver the previous two times they played there in January & I believe the Chiefs will do it again.

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    Connecticut, I fully agree with you regarding the Raiders game. But don't forget, WE almost lost to the Texans at HOME, so if we don't think the Texans have a chance to beat the Donks in Houston, then what does that say about our opinion of the Chiefs? And BR, while I agree that a healthy team is paramount, and that historically a first round bye has not been the answer for us, this team is a completely different team and it is hard to ignore statistical probability. This link summarizes the advantage of higher seeding very simply. In short, a 5th seed has a 7% chance statistically of making it to the superbowl vs a 1st seed which has a 36% chance (and 44% historically). That's a HUGE difference and one worth fighting for.
    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011...f-seeding.html

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    I'm all for that extra week of rest to get healthy and one less playoff game we would have to win to get to the ship.

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    "The season is still alive." Think what Andy Reid is saying, is that the Colts aren't going to take a coffee break, and neither should we.

    Do agree we should rest injured players, not push anything too fast and have these guys back for the postseason. Definitely agree with sitting the starters if the game gets out of reach for the Colts, but I don't think that will be the case. Give our backups (who haven't been bad by any means) a lot of reps.

    We've really only lost to two teams; The Hee Haw squad & the Chargers. Not one of those three games were we ever out of reach. But I do think Arrowhead is a difference maker, because it takes away other teams' ability to audible. I'd rather us win out and just let the dust settle from what's going on with everyone else as far as playoff scenarios go.

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