Mock Draft 2014.02.24

[kccrow]

R1 - OG David Yankey - Stanford (6'6" 315)

A large number of Chiefs fans are screaming loudly for receivers at the top of this draft, but the position is littered with potential steals later on. With WR being a position that is almost as difficult to hit on statistically as QB, I'm not one for taking pokes in the dark in round 1. There is also the group that will "scream" if we take another lineman. Well, when you have a regime that made mistake after mistake, your next one has to make up for it. The Chiefs won't be able to just address the offensive line in free agency and guards are always at a premium. To me, guard is the single most important offensive line position in football and David Yankey looks like a beast at the position. Yankey has a frame similar to that of Evan Mathis, so that should appeal to Andy Reid. Yankey is a guy that can play left guard, but you can also slide him around to any other position in a pinch. Yankey is a great pulling guard, generates movement in the run game, doesn't give up sacks often, and flat-out has a killer mentality.

R3 - SS/FS Craig Loston - Louisiana State (5'11" 217)

We'll start appeasing the fans a bit here. I'm not a huge track numbers guy. What matters to me is what a player does on the field and Craig Loston is a football player. Loston is far from a liability in coverage, but he isn't a stud in that arena. What makes him most attractive is his ability to set the tone on defense. Kansas City has lacked an emotional heart and soul on defense for some time, and Loston is that type of player. Loston can play the ball and he can play the run; he's a good tackler that can make some big-time sticks.

R4 - WR T.J. Jones - Notre Dame (6'0" 188)

An sneaky-explosive receiver that can make plays vertically. Looks to be a perfect possession type with great field awareness and body control. Jones possesses top-notch route running ability and is a hands receiver that plucks the ball out of the air most of the time. Jones could develop into a legimate playmaker at the next level with his abilities after the catch. Although WR is one of the most difficult positions to hit on in the draft (second only to QB), the Chiefs need to add an explosive element offensively and need to take a chance early.

R5 - DE Brent Urban - Virginia (6'7" 295)

Urban is a penetrating, powerful defensive tackle/end prospect that can make plays in the backfield and disrupt the quarterback. What is most impressive is Urban's ability to force double-teams because he gets good leverage and has good power. If Urban can learn to fight with his hands and develop a bit more field awareness, the sky is the limit.

R6 - RB Rajion Neal - Tennessee (5'11" 211)

A solid overall back that can carry the ball inside or out and functions well as a receiving back. Neal possesses great vision to find the quick cutback lanes. Neal also runs very compactly and balanced, allowing him to change direction and make dart cuts into the opening hole. The all-around type of player that Andy Reid seems to covet at the position.

R7 - CB Travis Carrie - Ohio (6'0" 210)

A perfect blend of size and speed, Carrie did nothing but lock down receivers during his time at Ohio. If it weren't for sitting out his Junior season due to a shoulder injury, there is a good chance he'd be much more highly touted. Carrie is a sleeper prospect that is physical in all aspects of the game and a good tackler. Carrie could move to free safety and also has experience as a gunner on special teams.

R7 - OC Zac Kerin - Toledo (6'5" 308)

An all-around good center that can move with the length and attributes to also kick out to guard. I'm a big fan of big men that can block on the move, and Kerin is one of those guys. In the NFL, with so many zone schemes up front, lineman have to be able to move and adapt. Kerin is a very underrated player because he played in the MAC, but he looks the part of one of the better lineman in this draft.

[kccrow]

What I don't like is a team boxing themselves into a select couple of positions/players, because then they make mistakes. Carl Peterson was good for that, and Pioli didn't look any better really. Jacksonville killed themselves chasing defensive ends. Detroit killed themselves chasing wide receivers.

More on the pick of Yankey... Everyone knows we have a problem at guard. For starters, Allen has no business being a starter and the Chiefs haven't signed anyone else yet. Aside from this, you can't always draft for the now. I think this is a team that has to continue to look at almost all positions and see where can be upgraded or fill a hole. Remember this fact, improving a starting position improves depth. If Jeff Allen becomes a backup, he remains a guy that can still step in and start for you and at least slow someone down. He's not a good starter, but he still has value as a depth player. The move improves the team both in terms of the starting player's calibur and in terms of depth. I'd do the same thing at many other positions.

There is a statistic out there called ANYPA, that assesses the effectiveness of throwing the ball. Over the course of, oh, the past 30 years of NFL games, the team that has thrown the ball more effectively (that is has a higher ANYPA than the other team) has won the game 80% of the time. Obviously you do whatever you can to improve that statistic. Better, more explosive WRs, a better QB, a better O-Line, a better TE, a RB that can block and catch out of the backfield. Defensively, you need to improve pass rush ability and coverage ability, so DE, OLB, CB, FS primarily.

The plus of an offensive lineman is that he can have as much of an affect on the QB as a WR would. He makes the QB more effective in that he will not get sacked as often, he won't face pressure throws as often decreasing interception potential, he'll have more time to deliver explosive strikes down the field, and so forth. The most effective pressure on a QB comes from up the middle of the offensive line, so the OG position is of paramount importance in today's NFL. Offensive lineman make receivers more effective because they can now run more advanced and deeper routes than the may have otherwise. Teams also must get more creative in trying to create pressure (blitz) because a good offensive line doesn't allow pressure from the primary four rushers. When teams try to blitz to compensate for lack of a primary pass rush, they open up the field to the intermediate passing game. You get the added bonus, when drafting a lineman, of those picks being relatively safe in comparison to most any other position you draft.

A team can do one of two things, of course, try to get better at increasing their own ANYPA, as I suggest, or they can try to limit the other team's ANYPA. The latter, of course, lends to the discussion of drafting for pass rush or defensive back.

I have no problem with that philosophy, if the right player is there. Obviously that is true with drafting a guard. If Yankey isn't there at 23, it is unlikely I'd draft any other guard in round 1.

There are only 3 defensive backs I'd consider in round 1 and I rank them as follows:

1. Justin Gilbert
2. Kyle Fuller
3. Calvin Pryor

I'm sure people love HaHa and Darqueze, but count me out as a one of those people. If any one of those guys are there at 23, I'd pull the trigger. Some sites I've noticed have Fuller in round 2. I have my doubts. You have a guy that suffered a hernia but still played a good portion of the year. He runs sub-4.5 at 6'0" 190 and is tough, physical, and plays the run extremely well. That combination doesn't just come around every day.

I also like a couple of the DE prospects, Tuitt and Hageman especially.

I'm not married to a single line of thought. My first mock of the year (wasn't posted here) had Hageman as the top pick. As I see where the offseason goes, I might hone in a little more. If you asked me to rank the players as I'd take them at this point, I'd probably say this:

1. Justin Gilbert - CB - Oklahoma State - I don't see any way he's on the board at 23, but I've seen strange things.
2. Kyle Fuller - CB/FS - Virginia Tech - I love this kid's game about as much as Gilbert, he's heavily underrated on draftnik sites.
3. David Yankey - OG - Stanford - He might just be better than any guards that have come out the past few years.
4. Odell Beckham - WR - Louisiana State - He's explosive and could be a hell of a target in Reid's system.
5. Rashede Hageman - DE - Minnesota - At times unblockable, a team needs to harness his abilities.
6. Calvin Pryor - FS - Louisville - Not the prototypical FS in that he's not the super-athletic cover guy, but he can cover pretty well and he's a good tackler.
7. Jordan Matthews - WR - Vanderbilt - Highly underrated, precise route runner with great hands and sneaky speed.
8. Stephon Tuitt - DE - Notre Dame - Needs to mature, but could be a beast in the right environment.

This is assuming alot of the top-tier guys are all off the board as expected. I wouldn't count on a guy like Eric Ebron being there or an Anthony Barr, or so on ad so forth.

As for trading down, you have to have a trade partner and that isn't always possible.

[jason1981]

I thought our oline got better the second half of the season and iv heard that allen had a good year. Asomoah got benched for swartz cuz of pass protection. Osamoah is a better run blocker but swartz is a bettter pass protecter. If all did have a bad year then why not resitn both guys and move one to the other spot and allen will be back up then we will hav3 more flexibility in the draft. But our oline wasnt a problem at the end of the year. Our defense was. Amd wide receiver except the final whem bowe decided to show up.

[kccrow]

I'm looking at the defense and wondering a couple of things, is the talent that devoid and if so, where? If there is talent voids, do they need to be filled via the draft?

Everybody talks about the defensive backs, but that isn't where I think the problem lies entirely. I think the most glaring weakness defensively is actually DE.

Let's take a look at one glaring statistic.

Here is a pair of 3-4 DEs in the AFC:
#1: 78 tkl 3.5 sk 1 ff
#2: 63 tkl 10.5 sk 2 ff
Combined: 141 tkl 14 sk 3 ff

Here is KCs DEs:
Jackson: 34 tkl 4.0 sk 0 ff
DeVito: 28 tkl 0.0 sk 0 ff
Combined: 62 tkl 4.0 sk 0 ff

For all the raving everyone does over KC's "run stopping" DEs, they aren't as productive as one of the DEs listed in the first pair. That pair is the New York Jets Richardson and Wilkerson respectively.

Houston's JJ Watt had 80 tkl 10.5 sk 4 ff while Antonio Smith had 30 tkl 5.0 sk 1 ff.

KC needs a disruptive presence on the defensive line and could improve both slots. I think you let Jackson walk and you go fairly hard after Arthur Jones of Baltimore. Jones would instantly upgrade one spot. You can then draft for the other spot, but don't have that immediate need this season.

Realistically, KC only needs one starter at DB and that is FS. That could come via re-signing Abdullah, getting a free agent, or via the draft. Abdullah spent most of last season acclimating to the pro game again, but he wasn't all that bad when he started for Minnesota and he started to look better as the season wore on.

As for CB, I don't think the need is as strong as others, but I'm all for bringing in competition. That is, of course, unless a really good one falls in our laps in round 1. As I've stated, my top two guys are likely Gilbert and Fuller but I like Fuller's ability to transition to FS.

So, lets pretend KC signs Arthur Jones and re-signs Abdullah. What glaring weakness is there on defense over and above the weaknesses at OG and WR on offense? What about if we also sign Jeremy Maclin or maybe a Doug Baldwin? At this point, would OG look as bad as it may seem at this point?

[jason1981]

Kccrow I dont think og is a big weakness as long as we resign ekther swart or asomoah. Our line played great the second half of the season. If we lose both of them then yes but think we should resign one of our own guys. I say FS,de or wr with our 1st pick. You seem stuck that og is our biggest need.