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Thread: What Will Happen with Alex Smith?

  1. #1
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    Default What Will Happen with Alex Smith?


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    The fact that Alex Smith has not already been signed to an extension can only mean that the Chiefs are keeping their options open heading into the draft. The Chiefs brought in Tyler Bray (arguably the QB with the most upside from the 2013 draft class) as an UDFA who has already shown some nice promise. The 2014 draft looks loaded with QB talent. If there is a QB the Chiefs think could be their franchise future there at #23, don't be shocked to see them pull the trigger. They replaced the second most important position on the team last season with their first pick... why wouldn't they do the same thing with their first pick this season?

    The whole decision of whether or not to draft a QB will come down to what they truly think of Tyler Bray... NOT Alex Smith. I think Smith has priced himself out of KC. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a playoff season, it feels a lot more like the playoff season Edwards led Vermeil's Chiefs to rather than a sign of things to come. The Chiefs have maxed out their cap space and have gotten worse in doing so. This team will be facing some tough decisions in the next few seasons that will probably see Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Flowers among others leave the team. If those guys leave, it won't be so they can afford a guy like Alex Smith.

    Also consider that the Chiefs will be stock-piling picks for the 2015 draft. They will start with 7 and will probably get at least another 3 as compensatory picks from losing Albert, McCluster, a pair of starting OGs, and Tyson Jackson. Going with a 2nd or 3rd year QB in the form of this year's QB taken in the draft or Bray from last year will allow the Chiefs to get ANOTHER compensatory pick in 2016 by letting Smith walk. Smith won't be the only high-profile player to leave, either. I would expect some big names to either get traded this season with 2 seasons left before free agency, or next year when they still have 1 season of team control left.

    You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select? Doubtful. If the front office thinks they can get/or have their QBOTF in this draft or the last, they won't sign Alex Smith long term. In fact, I don't see a single scenario that has the Chiefs committing long-term money (especially $15m/yr) to Alex Smith. Andy Reid and John Dorsey want a guy they can develop over an extended period of time. (see Aaron Rodgers)

    I see a 3 year plan of something like the following:

    Trade Eric Berry for draft picks in 2015/16
    Let Alex Smith walk for picks
    Trade Hali for picks in '16
    Let Charles walk after '16
    Trade DJ for picks in '16
    Cut/trade Sean Smith after '14
    Sign Justin Houston long-term
    Sign Dontari Poe long-term
    Sign Bray (or '14 rookie) long-term

    10+ picks in 2015
    10+ picks in 2016

    All this among other moves, of course... but I think you are going to see a drastically different team heading into the 2016 team than many of us want to see. I will be absolutely shocked and dismayed if Alex Smith is the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2016 season.

  2. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    I believe Brendan Albert was recruited to college as a LT but was moved to guard to accommodate D'Brickashaw Ferguson and later Eugene Monroe -- two top notch LT.



    Albert was/is a B grade LT. But not worth the money he wanted and eventually got. That is the main reason Eric Fisher was drafted. I believe the Chiefs wdv drafted someone else had they been able to lock up Albert to a reasonable deal.

    The Chiefs would be in better shape with Ziggy Ansah or Star Lotuleilei (at NT, Poe at DE) and Branden Albert then just the project that is Eric Fisher.
    Rubbish. Albert was not recruited as a LT.

    And Fisher didn't look like a project to me in his last 5 games, especially considering the 9 sacks that Albert allowed in his THIRD season in his last 5 games in 2010. In reality, it was Albert that was the project at LT and 6 years of wasted project at that.

    Doubtful the Chiefs would be in better shape with someone other than Fisher with Albert having missed several games the last two years & the O-line being a sieve since Roaf and Shields retired. Star and Ziggy were good prospects, but Tackle was a bigger need contrary to what the Eric Berry worshipers thought & guys like Ziggy and Star can be had in this years draft.

  3. #92
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    For the PFF stat debate

    I've said before I'm not big on stats. They don't tell you the whole story. There's more to it.
    For example a couple of years ago when we were debating Cassel there was an article posted on here about how bad he was. One of the criticisms was his low completion % but no where did it mention the Chiefs during that time led the NFL in dropped passes. Sure the stats were what they were but there was more to that story as I said at the time. When looking at things like PFF sure they can tell you what the stats were. And that's part of the story. But I need the full story.

    On Fisher he was VERY disappointing with his level of play last season for a number 1 pick. But the rest of that story was that it was one of the weakest drafts in years. He was playing out of position. How much did that effect his play? The other thing is he showed progress last year. IF he can continue that he can still work out fine. It's up to him to put in the work and the coaching staff to get that out of him.

    On Albert.

    IMO he wasn't much better then slightly above average. I see people who talk about how he played and it's like we watched two different teams. Albert at times looked just as lost as Fisher did. It actually cost him games because he got hurt last year at one time because he got ABUSED badly by the defender. That along with the fact that he tends to miss games I really don't see his loss as a huge loss. If Fisher turns out to be just average we will be in about the same spot as if we had kept Albert.

  4. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post
    Without fail, there it is.
    That's right because you keep blatantly ignoring it & blows you argument all to hell.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post

    The free agent market disagrees with you, as he was obviously worth top-5 money and he earned the most guaranteed money out of all free agent LTs on the market and now has the 2nd most guaranteed money of any LT in the league. So you're wrong, he's not worth half of that. He's worth what he got, because he got it.
    Try again. The Dolphins paid him out of pure desperation because they know they aren't going to get one of the top 3 Tackles in the upcoming draft. That doesn't represent the entire FA market. He didn't earn anything, except maybe a good case of hemerroids. If Albert was worth what he got, then Dorsey would have paid him that last year before he started signing FA's in the 2013 offseason prior to the draft. But, it didn't happen, did it? Albert got the franchise tag as trade bait. So who's wrong here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post
    Which is why I've always said you don't need a great LT when pretty good will do.
    Albert was neither & I'm not alone in that thought. I've seen many other Chiefs fans label him as "Princess Albert" or Mr. False-Start King. He always seemed to make mistakes in critical moments.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post

    I didn't think the Chiefs would draft a LT. They did and now they've moved on from Albert, who I'm glad they didn't pony up $26M guaranteed for. No left tackle is worth that in my opinion, but that's up to free agency to dictate what a team will pay a player.
    If one doesn't think an elite LT is worth that, then how can one think that a Safety is worth 10 mill a year and 34 mill in guaranteed, outside of being blinded by hero-worship?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post


    Now it's up to Fisher to step up and show significant improvement now in year 2.
    Everybody here has acknowledged as much. It will depend on how healthy he can stay through the course of the season more so than his blocking skills.

  5. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by texaschief View Post
    IMO, the only stats that matter in football are those of the QB. Stats become more and more useless as the number of players to field size ratio shrinks. Money ball works in baseball because it is primarily and individualized sport. 1 pitcher throwing to 1 batter who hits the ball to 1 player's "zone." You can measure how well each of those players does on an individual basis because there are measurable variables. You don't get that when you start talking about sports where players have to rely on other players to do their part in order for the play to work.

    On a football field, a player shares a field with 21 other players. The variables on a football field are way too large to measure. You can cherry pick and pretend like you're comparing apples to apples, but the statistics for a LT for example, don't account for the infinite number of variables that could and do occur during each play. Statistics only account for a certain set of variables. If you were to say Jake Long gave up 5 sacks during the first half of the season, but only 4 during the 2nd half of the season, would you assume all variables were the same? Because that's what you're doing when you look a PFF stats. You assume all variables are the same. You're not accounting for overloaded sets, whether or not the TE, RB, or OG chipped the pass rusher, the caliber of pass rusher, etc. Stats are a black and white tool that only show a glimpse of the whole picture when it comes to football.

    Football statistics are a tool and sometimes they are able to indicate tendencies and trends, but there are WAY too many variables on a football field for your stats sheet to be the only tool in your toolbox.
    Team stats are even worse because of the small sample size of 16 games. For example, defense and offense are graded on YPG. In only 16 games, a non-representative game can throw the stat one way or the other. A defense could grade poorly because they are on the field all day. A defense could grade well because of a prolific offense. Yards per Play is far better.
    ...in my opinion

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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Try learning how to read. I've said the PFF ratings are worthless regarding O-Lineman and that the overhead camera trumps them.
    All you're telling anyone is to trust the eyes of PFF, instead of trusting their own eyes via the overhead camera. And like you said, they make mistakes, and Eydugstr and I are referring to O-Lineman and I already know PFF ratings are worthless regarding O-Lineman as they don't touch on the series of opponents that said player went up against or injury status.

    I don't need the eyes of PFF. I've got a perfectly good pair of my own, and can review the same thing PFF is seeing via NFL Game Rewind.

    I can read. You cited injury status and quality of opponent as specific reasons why PFF’s OL rankings were unreliable.
    ...in my opinion

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    I can read. You cited injury status and quality of opponent as specific reasons why PFF’s OL rankings were unreliable.
    Then why the illogical question of "Are you saying all stats are worthless or just the ones that might grade favorably for players you've deemed below your standards? Such as Albert and Berry?" with it already having been specifically stated about the PFF stats regarding O-Lineman. Apparently, you didn't read it correctly.

  8. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    That's right because you keep blatantly ignoring it & blows you argument all to hell.
    Albert playing guard in college has nothing to do with how well he plays LT in the NFL.

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Try again. The Dolphins paid him out of pure desperation because they know they aren't going to get one of the top 3 Tackles in the upcoming draft. That doesn't represent the entire FA market. He didn't earn anything, except maybe a good case of hemerroids. If Albert was worth what he got, then Dorsey would have paid him that last year before he started signing FA's in the 2013 offseason prior to the draft. But, it didn't happen, did it? Albert got the franchise tag as trade bait. So who's wrong here?
    The rest of the LT market got paid well...Monroe, Veldheer. There was plenty of demand for Albert to get him paid well. He got what he wanted. Can't fault the guy for that.

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Albert was neither & I'm not alone in that thought. I've seen many other Chiefs fans label him as "Princess Albert" or Mr. False-Start King. He always seemed to make mistakes in critical moments.
    Albert is a pretty good LT. I don't care what Chiefs fans call him. They also called Derrick Johnson a bust, said we HAD to re-sign McCluster (lol), and thought Matt Cassel was the future of the franchise after one good season (myself included).

    He did commit bad penalties. Worthless PFF has him down for 9 penalties in 800 snaps and 5 in 722 snaps in 2012. That doesn't mean his skillset is instantly docked into some low tier LT that sucks. Okung (the guy you wanted to replace Albert) was charged with 7 penalties in only 441 snaps last year and 13 (yes 13) in 945 snaps in 2012. He's been one of the worst in the league when it comes to penalties. I don't mind using that as a barometer for LT play, but there's way more involved.

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    If one doesn't think an elite LT is worth that, then how can one think that a Safety is worth 10 mill a year and 34 mill in guaranteed, outside of being blinded by hero-worship?
    That was back in the outdated days of the ridiculous rookie cap. Thanksfully, those days are over. It's really not Berry's or the Chiefs' fault that he makes that much. It doesn't mean he's been a bad player, it just means he makes too much and was lucky the league payscale overvalued highly drafted incoming rookies.

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Everybody here has acknowledged as much. It will depend on how healthy he can stay through the course of the season more so than his blocking skills.
    He needs to get better at moving guys when he run blocks. Too many times he goes nowhere and the defender wins at the line of scrimmage. When he gets in space, he is fantastic at getting in the way to spring running backs free.

    He also needs to stop getting beat inside. He's very slow to adjust to inside moves. Getting stronger is a must, and will help with his punch when guys try to go inside. Unfortunately he's been on the shelf all offseason after labrum surgery.
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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Rubbish. Albert was not recruited as a LT.

    And Fisher didn't look like a project to me in his last 5 games, especially considering the 9 sacks that Albert allowed in his THIRD season in his last 5 games in 2010. In reality, it was Albert that was the project at LT and 6 years of wasted project at that.

    Doubtful the Chiefs would be in better shape with someone other than Fisher with Albert having missed several games the last two years & the O-line being a sieve since Roaf and Shields retired. Star and Ziggy were good prospects, but Tackle was a bigger need contrary to what the Eric Berry worshipers thought & guys like Ziggy and Star can be had in this years draft.
    Rubbish? I did not make the story up.

    The Berry worshippers know more than the Russell Okung boot lickers. That's really your issue isn't it? You wanted Okung and have probably gone out of your way to discredit Berry ever since. Fact is EB was drafted based on the fact that he is a game changer and a special talent. His 2 TD, 4 sacks, and 10 QB hurries last year are evidence of that. Despite his “struggles in coverage” his 3 INT ranked 6th amongst all safeties and first amongst SS.

    No matter. Your opinion of Berry is in the minority. Your opinion of Albert vs Fisher by comparing 2010 season stats is worthless. Today, Fisher is a project and Albert is a B grade tackle.

    A LT is just as available in this draft. Eric Fisher himself might have been available at #23 in this year’s class. So Ansah + Albert @$7-8M >> Fisher, no matter how you slice it. It’s moot, anyway.
    ...in my opinion

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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Then why the illogical question of "Are you saying all stats are worthless or just the ones that might grade favorably for players you've deemed below your standards? Such as Albert and Berry?" with it already having been specifically stated about the PFF stats regarding O-Lineman. Apparently, you didn't read it correctly.
    Fair enough. Drop my commentary. No stat accounts for quality of opponent or injury status. So why do those factors only render OL measurements worthless? Or, are you saying all stats are worthless? Or, are you saying that other stats do in fact account for quality of opponent and injury status?
    ...in my opinion

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post
    Albert playing guard in college has nothing to do with how well he plays LT in the NFL.



    The rest of the LT market got paid well...Monroe, Veldheer. There was plenty of demand for Albert to get him paid well. He got what he wanted. Can't fault the guy for that.



    Albert is a pretty good LT. I don't care what Chiefs fans call him. They also called Derrick Johnson a bust, said we HAD to re-sign McCluster (lol), and thought Matt Cassel was the future of the franchise after one good season (myself included).

    He did commit bad penalties. Worthless PFF has him down for 9 penalties in 800 snaps and 5 in 722 snaps in 2012. That doesn't mean his skillset is instantly docked into some low tier LT that sucks. Okung (the guy you wanted to replace Albert) was charged with 7 penalties in only 441 snaps last year and 13 (yes 13) in 945 snaps in 2012. He's been one of the worst in the league when it comes to penalties. I don't mind using that as a barometer for LT play, but there's way more involved.



    That was back in the outdated days of the ridiculous rookie cap. Thanksfully, those days are over. It's really not Berry's or the Chiefs' fault that he makes that much. It doesn't mean he's been a bad player, it just means he makes too much and was lucky the league payscale overvalued highly drafted incoming rookies.



    He needs to get better at moving guys when he run blocks. Too many times he goes nowhere and the defender wins at the line of scrimmage. When he gets in space, he is fantastic at getting in the way to spring running backs free.

    He also needs to stop getting beat inside. He's very slow to adjust to inside moves. Getting stronger is a must, and will help with his punch when guys try to go inside. Unfortunately he's been on the shelf all offseason after labrum surgery.
    Well done.
    ...in my opinion

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