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Thread: What Will Happen with Alex Smith?

  1. #1
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    Default What Will Happen with Alex Smith?


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    The fact that Alex Smith has not already been signed to an extension can only mean that the Chiefs are keeping their options open heading into the draft. The Chiefs brought in Tyler Bray (arguably the QB with the most upside from the 2013 draft class) as an UDFA who has already shown some nice promise. The 2014 draft looks loaded with QB talent. If there is a QB the Chiefs think could be their franchise future there at #23, don't be shocked to see them pull the trigger. They replaced the second most important position on the team last season with their first pick... why wouldn't they do the same thing with their first pick this season?

    The whole decision of whether or not to draft a QB will come down to what they truly think of Tyler Bray... NOT Alex Smith. I think Smith has priced himself out of KC. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a playoff season, it feels a lot more like the playoff season Edwards led Vermeil's Chiefs to rather than a sign of things to come. The Chiefs have maxed out their cap space and have gotten worse in doing so. This team will be facing some tough decisions in the next few seasons that will probably see Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Flowers among others leave the team. If those guys leave, it won't be so they can afford a guy like Alex Smith.

    Also consider that the Chiefs will be stock-piling picks for the 2015 draft. They will start with 7 and will probably get at least another 3 as compensatory picks from losing Albert, McCluster, a pair of starting OGs, and Tyson Jackson. Going with a 2nd or 3rd year QB in the form of this year's QB taken in the draft or Bray from last year will allow the Chiefs to get ANOTHER compensatory pick in 2016 by letting Smith walk. Smith won't be the only high-profile player to leave, either. I would expect some big names to either get traded this season with 2 seasons left before free agency, or next year when they still have 1 season of team control left.

    You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select? Doubtful. If the front office thinks they can get/or have their QBOTF in this draft or the last, they won't sign Alex Smith long term. In fact, I don't see a single scenario that has the Chiefs committing long-term money (especially $15m/yr) to Alex Smith. Andy Reid and John Dorsey want a guy they can develop over an extended period of time. (see Aaron Rodgers)

    I see a 3 year plan of something like the following:

    Trade Eric Berry for draft picks in 2015/16
    Let Alex Smith walk for picks
    Trade Hali for picks in '16
    Let Charles walk after '16
    Trade DJ for picks in '16
    Cut/trade Sean Smith after '14
    Sign Justin Houston long-term
    Sign Dontari Poe long-term
    Sign Bray (or '14 rookie) long-term

    10+ picks in 2015
    10+ picks in 2016

    All this among other moves, of course... but I think you are going to see a drastically different team heading into the 2016 team than many of us want to see. I will be absolutely shocked and dismayed if Alex Smith is the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2016 season.

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    I'm sorry, I just can't get past your obsession with tearing Branden Albert down, as he's more than proven his worth at LT in this league. It usually all comes back to "well Albert played guard in college." Yes, he did. Behind Eugene Monroe, who is another great LT in this league. Eric Fisher made 2 starts at guard in college and 4 starts at RT. Good thing he didn't have another all-pro LT in front of him his senior year or else Chiefs fans might have the nutty idea to kick him inside to his "natural position" of guard.
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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    All you're telling anyone is to trust the eyes of PFF, instead of trusting their own eyes via the overhead camera. And like you said, they make mistakes, and Eydugstr and I are referring to O-Lineman and I already know PFF ratings are worthless regarding O-Lineman as they don't touch on the series of opponents that said player went up against or injury status.

    I don't need the eyes of PFF. I've got a perfectly good pair of my own, and can review the same thing PFF is seeing via NFL Game Rewind.
    No stat known to mankind in any sport makes adjustments for quality of opponent or injury status. Are you saying all stats are worthless or just the ones that might grade favorably for players you've deemed below your standards? Such as Albert and Berry?
    ...in my opinion

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post
    So instead we should trust the eyes of the guy who said Branden Albert should have never been playing LT to begin with. OK!
    That's right. He shouldn't have been playing LT to begin with, especially since he was Guard in college and high school. Add to that, it did nothing to help with the rebuilding of the Chiefs O-Line & taking several years for him to go from being a mediocre LT to an average LT and putting the idea into his head that he should be paid top-5 money, when he's only worth half of that. Just a waste of time. Could have been an All-Pro Guard during all those years that he was struggling to play LT, but we'll never know.

    BTW, Stephenson played LT as well as Albert did during the final few games of 2013 and there really isn't any reason to think that a healthy Eric Fisher can't upgrade the LT position over Albert.

    It's no secret that you always wore your cheerleader skirt & shook your pom-poms regarding Albert, but you can rest assured that I'm laughed a lot harder at you when you were saying last year that you were "confident the Chiefs wouldn't draft a Tackle" with their top draft pick in 2013, only to have Fisher drafted #1 overall. Tell us, how hard were you laughing at that?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    No stat known to mankind in any sport makes adjustments for quality of opponent or injury status. Are you saying all stats are worthless or just the ones that might grade favorably for players you've deemed below your standards? Such as Albert and Berry?
    Try learning how to read. I've said the PFF ratings are worthless regarding O-Lineman and that the overhead camera trumps them.
    Last edited by brdempsey69; 05-07-2014 at 01:53 PM.

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    IMO, the only stats that matter in football are those of the QB. Stats become more and more useless as the number of players to field size ratio shrinks. Money ball works in baseball because it is primarily and individualized sport. 1 pitcher throwing to 1 batter who hits the ball to 1 player's "zone." You can measure how well each of those players does on an individual basis because there are measurable variables. You don't get that when you start talking about sports where players have to rely on other players to do their part in order for the play to work.

    On a football field, a player shares a field with 21 other players. The variables on a football field are way too large to measure. You can cherry pick and pretend like you're comparing apples to apples, but the statistics for a LT for example, don't account for the infinite number of variables that could and do occur during each play. Statistics only account for a certain set of variables. If you were to say Jake Long gave up 5 sacks during the first half of the season, but only 4 during the 2nd half of the season, would you assume all variables were the same? Because that's what you're doing when you look a PFF stats. You assume all variables are the same. You're not accounting for overloaded sets, whether or not the TE, RB, or OG chipped the pass rusher, the caliber of pass rusher, etc. Stats are a black and white tool that only show a glimpse of the whole picture when it comes to football.

    Football statistics are a tool and sometimes they are able to indicate tendencies and trends, but there are WAY too many variables on a football field for your stats sheet to be the only tool in your toolbox.

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    Quote Originally Posted by texaschief View Post
    Football statistics are a tool and sometimes they are able to indicate tendencies and trends, but there are WAY too many variables on a football field for your stats sheet to be the only tool in your toolbox.
    It's far from the only tool, but they do a great job of giving you a good idea of the best, mediocre, and worst at a given position.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post
    It's far from the only tool, but they do a great job of giving you a good idea of the best, mediocre, and worst at a given position.

    According to stats based on immeasurable variables.

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    I believe Brendan Albert was recruited to college as a LT but was moved to guard to accommodate D'Brickashaw Ferguson and later Eugene Monroe -- two top notch LT.



    Albert was/is a B grade LT. But not worth the money he wanted and eventually got. That is the main reason Eric Fisher was drafted. I believe the Chiefs wdv drafted someone else had they been able to lock up Albert to a reasonable deal.

    The Chiefs would be in better shape with Ziggy Ansah or Star Lotuleilei (at NT, Poe at DE) and Branden Albert then just the project that is Eric Fisher.
    ...in my opinion

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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    That's right. He shouldn't have been playing LT to begin with, especially since he was Guard in college and high school.
    Without fail, there it is.

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Add to that, it did nothing to help with the rebuilding of the Chiefs O-Line & taking several years for him to go from being a mediocre LT to an average LT and putting the idea into his head that he should be paid top-5 money, when he's only worth half of that. Just a waste of time. Could have been an All-Pro Guard during all those years that he was struggling to play LT, but we'll never know.
    The free agent market disagrees with you, as he was obviously worth top-5 money and he earned the most guaranteed money out of all free agent LTs on the market and now has the 2nd most guaranteed money of any LT in the league. So you're wrong, he's not worth half of that. He's worth what he got, because he got it.

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    BTW, Stephenson played LT as well as Albert did during the final few games of 2013 and there really isn't any reason to think that a healthy Eric Fisher can't upgrade the LT position over Albert.
    Which is why I've always said you don't need a great LT when pretty good will do.

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    It's no secret that you always wore your cheerleader skirt & shook your pom-poms regarding Albert, but you can rest assured that I'm laughed a lot harder at you when you were saying last year that you were "confident the Chiefs wouldn't draft a Tackle" with their top draft pick in 2013, only to have Fisher drafted #1 overall. Tell us, how hard were you laughing at that?
    I didn't think the Chiefs would draft a LT. They did and now they've moved on from Albert, who I'm glad they didn't pony up $26M guaranteed for. No left tackle is worth that in my opinion, but that's up to free agency to dictate what a team will pay a player.

    Now it's up to Fisher to step up and show significant improvement now in year 2.
    Last edited by Ryfo18; 05-07-2014 at 02:18 PM.
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    I don't think anyone is saying that PFF is utterly worthless. I think rather they are saying that PFF's value is considerably greater for some positions than others. And that it is certainly not "The Word of God".

  11. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by texaschief View Post
    According to stats based on immeasurable variables.
    It's not immeasurable variables. Did a LT throw a block to spring free a RB on a 5-yard run? Give them a plus. Did a LT commit a bone-headed false start penalty on 3rd down? Give them a minus. Did a LT give up a sack where he was badly beat? Give him a minus. It's not like they're using stats to develop these metrics. They're watching film and applying them consistently across everyone at a given position.
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