I have a real problem with this strategy. First of all, how do you even determine who the Best Player Available is? Do you add up the cumulative rankings of 20 "expert" NFL analysts to come up with a score for each player? Is there a formula for adding combine 40 yd dash, bench press, standing broad jump, etc + Wonderlick test score to determine an overall score? And how do you rank players that didn't attend the combine? How do you rank players at very different positions? Does one sack = X catches, or is 100 yds rushing equal to X number of tackles? Is there a conversion chart online somewhere?
Originally Posted by Seek
I doubt that you could get Phil Emery, John Dorsey and Scott Pioli to agree on who is the 23 best player in the draft, let alone get a consensus from all 32 GMs on who is the BPA for every pick in the draft. So the BPA is a myth to begin with. It is whoever any given GM thinks it is when it is his turn to pick. But let's assume, for the sake of argument, that you can assign a rank for all 274 (not including supplemental picks) players in the draft.
The Bears had the 2nd best offense and the 2nd worst defense in the NFL last year. Suppose every time it is their turn to pick, the BPA is an offensive player. Should the Bears take an offensive player with every pick and ignore the glaring needs on their horrid defense knowing that none of those picks are likely to start? Ignoring the needs on their aging defense is what got them into this position in the first place. Or let's take it to another extreme. Suppose, because the other 31 teams keep passing on them, every time it is the Chiefs turn to pick, the BPA is a QB. Would you seriously be happy going into training camp with 9 QBs on the roster having done nothing to improve the defense, O-line or WR positions?
If a player falls and he is clearly much better than any other player on the board then it makes sense to take him. But if the Chiefs are on the clock with the 23rd pick and the two best players are a QB you had ranked at 17 and a FS you had ranked at 19 you have to take the FS because he makes the team better. The FS would be likely to start from day one and the QB would only be a back-up.
What you are looking for with each draft pick is value. The BPA may have the most value to the team but the 3rd or 4th best may make a bigger impact on improving the team than the BPA in many cases. You don't want to "reach" on a player just because you are desperate to fill a position of need. That can be disastrous. But by the same token, you don't want to always take the BPA if that player does nothing to make your team better. That would be equally disastrous.
Last edited by TopekaRoy; 05-07-2014 at 01:18 PM.
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