Page 1 of 9 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 127

Thread: What Will Happen with Alex Smith?

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Member Since
    Jun 2005
    Location
    San Antonio, TX
    Posts
    3,768
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 183
    Given: 51

    Default What Will Happen with Alex Smith?


    1 Not allowed!
    The fact that Alex Smith has not already been signed to an extension can only mean that the Chiefs are keeping their options open heading into the draft. The Chiefs brought in Tyler Bray (arguably the QB with the most upside from the 2013 draft class) as an UDFA who has already shown some nice promise. The 2014 draft looks loaded with QB talent. If there is a QB the Chiefs think could be their franchise future there at #23, don't be shocked to see them pull the trigger. They replaced the second most important position on the team last season with their first pick... why wouldn't they do the same thing with their first pick this season?

    The whole decision of whether or not to draft a QB will come down to what they truly think of Tyler Bray... NOT Alex Smith. I think Smith has priced himself out of KC. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a playoff season, it feels a lot more like the playoff season Edwards led Vermeil's Chiefs to rather than a sign of things to come. The Chiefs have maxed out their cap space and have gotten worse in doing so. This team will be facing some tough decisions in the next few seasons that will probably see Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Flowers among others leave the team. If those guys leave, it won't be so they can afford a guy like Alex Smith.

    Also consider that the Chiefs will be stock-piling picks for the 2015 draft. They will start with 7 and will probably get at least another 3 as compensatory picks from losing Albert, McCluster, a pair of starting OGs, and Tyson Jackson. Going with a 2nd or 3rd year QB in the form of this year's QB taken in the draft or Bray from last year will allow the Chiefs to get ANOTHER compensatory pick in 2016 by letting Smith walk. Smith won't be the only high-profile player to leave, either. I would expect some big names to either get traded this season with 2 seasons left before free agency, or next year when they still have 1 season of team control left.

    You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select? Doubtful. If the front office thinks they can get/or have their QBOTF in this draft or the last, they won't sign Alex Smith long term. In fact, I don't see a single scenario that has the Chiefs committing long-term money (especially $15m/yr) to Alex Smith. Andy Reid and John Dorsey want a guy they can develop over an extended period of time. (see Aaron Rodgers)

    I see a 3 year plan of something like the following:

    Trade Eric Berry for draft picks in 2015/16
    Let Alex Smith walk for picks
    Trade Hali for picks in '16
    Let Charles walk after '16
    Trade DJ for picks in '16
    Cut/trade Sean Smith after '14
    Sign Justin Houston long-term
    Sign Dontari Poe long-term
    Sign Bray (or '14 rookie) long-term

    10+ picks in 2015
    10+ picks in 2016

    All this among other moves, of course... but I think you are going to see a drastically different team heading into the 2016 team than many of us want to see. I will be absolutely shocked and dismayed if Alex Smith is the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2016 season.

  2. #2
    Member Since
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    4,322
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 606
    Given: 788

    Default


    1 Not allowed!
    I'd roll the dice with Bray & I wouldn't take a QB this year. Next years draft class is said to superior at the QB class & with the compensatory picks that they'll have, that will be a better time to pull the trigger on drafting a QB.

    As for Smith, it's hard to envision the Chiefs giving up a pair of 2nd round picks for a loaner QB. But if a deal can't get done and Smith does walk, then that's exactly what you have.

    And make sure to have a good O-Line built in front of the QB regardless of whether Smith stays or goes.

  3. #3
    Member Since
    Jun 2005
    Location
    San Antonio, TX
    Posts
    3,768
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 183
    Given: 51

    Default


    0 Not allowed!
    I doubt the Chiefs were thinking he'd be asking for $15m/yr on an extension when they gave up those picks.

  4. #4
    Member Since
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    4,322
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 606
    Given: 788

    Default


    1 Not allowed!
    I know that the Chiefs knew that the asking price for a top 10 or top 5 QB was in the 15 mil. a year range considering they were paying Cassel 10 mil. a year and the recent contracts signed by Romo and Flacco.

    What they probably didn't expect was Alex to finish the 2013 season looking like a top 5 QB, as over the 2nd half of the season it was said the Chiefs Offense was putting up more points on the scoreboard than just about everybody else & certainly Alex was a part of that. And then the playoff game pretty much cemented his status as one of the games better QB's.

    I believe you are right about the other players you listed nearing the end regarding their time in a Chiefs uniform. But, I wouldn't count Alex Smith as being gone just yet.

  5. #5
    Member Since
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    172
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 21
    Given: 51

    Default


    0 Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by texaschief View Post
    The fact that Alex Smith has not already been signed to an extension can only mean that the Chiefs are keeping their options open heading into the draft. The Chiefs brought in Tyler Bray (arguably the QB with the most upside from the 2013 draft class) as an UDFA who has already shown some nice promise. The 2014 draft looks loaded with QB talent. If there is a QB the Chiefs think could be their franchise future there at #23, don't be shocked to see them pull the trigger. They replaced the second most important position on the team last season with their first pick... why wouldn't they do the same thing with their first pick this season?

    The whole decision of whether or not to draft a QB will come down to what they truly think of Tyler Bray... NOT Alex Smith. I think Smith has priced himself out of KC. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a playoff season, it feels a lot more like the playoff season Edwards led Vermeil's Chiefs to rather than a sign of things to come. The Chiefs have maxed out their cap space and have gotten worse in doing so. This team will be facing some tough decisions in the next few seasons that will probably see Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Flowers among others leave the team. If those guys leave, it won't be so they can afford a guy like Alex Smith.

    Also consider that the Chiefs will be stock-piling picks for the 2015 draft. They will start with 7 and will probably get at least another 3 as compensatory picks from losing Albert, McCluster, a pair of starting OGs, and Tyson Jackson. Going with a 2nd or 3rd year QB in the form of this year's QB taken in the draft or Bray from last year will allow the Chiefs to get ANOTHER compensatory pick in 2016 by letting Smith walk. Smith won't be the only high-profile player to leave, either. I would expect some big names to either get traded this season with 2 seasons left before free agency, or next year when they still have 1 season of team control left.

    You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select? Doubtful. If the front office thinks they can get/or have their QBOTF in this draft or the last, they won't sign Alex Smith long term. In fact, I don't see a single scenario that has the Chiefs committing long-term money (especially $15m/yr) to Alex Smith. Andy Reid and John Dorsey want a guy they can develop over an extended period of time. (see Aaron Rodgers)

    I see a 3 year plan of something like the following:

    Trade Eric Berry for draft picks in 2015/16
    Let Alex Smith walk for picks
    Trade Hali for picks in '16
    Let Charles walk after '16
    Trade DJ for picks in '16
    Cut/trade Sean Smith after '14
    Sign Justin Houston long-term
    Sign Dontari Poe long-term
    Sign Bray (or '14 rookie) long-term

    10+ picks in 2015
    10+ picks in 2016

    All this among other moves, of course... but I think you are going to see a drastically different team heading into the 2016 team than many of us want to see. I will be absolutely shocked and dismayed if Alex Smith is the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2016 season.
    Player trades are rare in the NFL, especially for very good players. With the exception of QB you seldom get fair value. Once the league knows a guy's been made available, why not wait until the trading team releases the guy?

    Hali won't get you better than an R3, at the very best. An R4 is more likely. Berry an R2, maybe a late R1. Maybe. DJ & Flowers -- same as Hali.
    Last edited by Mongo; 05-04-2014 at 12:02 PM.
    ...in my opinion

  6. #6
    Member Since
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Falls Village, Ct
    Posts
    3,597
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 336
    Given: 348

    Default


    0 Not allowed!
    Interesting....I was pondering the whole Alex Smith/Tyler Bray situation during some down time at work last night. I had planned to make a thread on the subject today.

    texaschief beat me to it and did a much better job than I would have. Thank you.

    I agree with most of what is said here. Especially with regard to Berry, Hali and Flowers. I really don't see them being here much longer.

    I gotta say though that I have a hard time imagining they would let Jamaal Charles go. That said, JC has been doing FANTASTIC work for our Chiefs and he has been doing it for VERY LITTLE money (comparatively). His contract is done after 2015 and if he is looking to be the highest paid back in the history of football I could easily imagine them franchising him to keep him here through the 2016 season and then letting him walk. At that point JC would be 30 and with the pounding he is taking he might well be on the downhill side of his career. He'd certainly have a couple of good years left in him (unless he had a serious injury) but I guess it's not hard to imagine him gone for the 2017 season. I hope not, he's one player I'd really like to see finish his career as a Chief. But in the end, football is all about business and I can't see Dorsey making him the highest paid back ever if his capabilities are in decline. For me, it would be a sad day to see JC in another teams uniform.

    On Alex Smith....DAMMIT!!!! Why does money always have to get involved in football??? I liked the "old days" when most players stayed with a single team for their entire career. OK I'll stop whining now.....

    I'd like to see Smith get a 5 year contract for about $50 million with $36-$39 million guaranteed. Big money ($13 million or less) for 3 years, followed by "backup QB money" for the last 2 years. Not sure I see it happening though.


    Smith had a hot hand the last half of last season and of course that has his agent looking for a huge payday. Probably a bigger payday than Dorsey ever imagined. I tend to think that Dorsey was expecting 2013 to be an 8-8 or 9-7 season and then being able to extend Smith for maybe about $10 million per year. But then we went 11-5 and almost won a playoff game and all those plans went straight down the toilet. Best laid plans of mice and men.

    So I think what is happening is Dorsey and Reid are looking at the tough schedule we have this year and figuring that Smith won't look half as good at the end of this coming season as he does now and that at end of next year they can keep him for about $10 million per year. So I think they will play pretty tough on the extension negotiations this year thus betting that if they don't get a deal done on their terms now that they will be able to next year. The flip side to that coin is that if we win a playoff game this year, then Smith's agent is going to be wanting $20 million next year. It's a gamble, but I think the odds are pretty good. I doubt Smith will look quite as much like Superman at the end of this season as he does now. All said and done, it's not hard to imagine the Chiefs franchising Alex Smith for the 2015 season. It would cost HUGE money, but maybe Reid and Dorsey figure they will have a new QBOTF ready to go for 2016.

    Tyler Bray....well, he is just an enigma to me. I haven't seen enough of him to decide if he is the Second Coming of the Lord or just another college kid who couldn't make it in the NFL. Hopefully Reid knows a whole lot more about Bray than I do.

  7. #7
    Member Since
    Jun 2005
    Location
    San Antonio, TX
    Posts
    3,768
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 183
    Given: 51

    Default


    0 Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    I know that the Chiefs knew that the asking price for a top 10 or top 5 QB was in the 15 mil. a year range considering they were paying Cassel 10 mil. a year and the recent contracts signed by Romo and Flacco.

    What they probably didn't expect was Alex to finish the 2013 season looking like a top 5 QB, as over the 2nd half of the season it was said the Chiefs Offense was putting up more points on the scoreboard than just about everybody else & certainly Alex was a part of that. And then the playoff game pretty much cemented his status as one of the games better QB's.

    I believe you are right about the other players you listed nearing the end regarding their time in a Chiefs uniform. But, I wouldn't count Alex Smith as being gone just yet.
    Right. I doubt they thought they were going to get a guy who looked like a top 7 QB in this league when they traded for him... especially in his first year here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    Player trades are rare in the NFL, especially for very good players. With the exception of QB you seldom get fair value. Once the league knows a guy's been made available, why not wait until the trading team releases the guy?

    Hali won't get you better than an R3, at the very best. An R4 is more likely. Berry an R2, maybe a late R1. Maybe. DJ & Flowers -- same as Hali.
    Bowe won't be traded. He'll be released for cap space. I think the Chiefs will take anything they can get for Berry, Hali, and the rest. It's mostly about money, here. There is a salary basement as well as a salary cap. I think I'd pay DJ and Bowe for a longer period of time than I would any of the rest of the stars on this team. It would also be really tough to sell a rebuild job to a franchise base that just saw their team make the playoffs for the first time in forever. However, the moves that would help this team the most in the long-term are the kind of moves that brought some of those guys to the Chiefs in first place. When we traded Allen away to get guys like Albert, Flowers, Charles, etc it was one of the most valuable moves the team could have ever made.

    There are safety-hungry teams out there who would pay a premium for 2 years of Eric Berry as the Vikings did with Allen before signing him long-term. Hali is coming off a Pro Bowl season and plays a premium position. He's a known commodity and for a team needing to pressure the QB, he'd bring back plenty of value given he still has 2 years left on his contract as well. The fire sale would be on at that point and what do you think Charles would bring back with 2 more years left on his deal?

    Let's go with your best case scenario (because I'm an optimist) and say the Chiefs get this:
    Keep Bowe and DJ

    Hali for a 2015 3rd
    Berry for a 2015 late 1st & 4th (close to the Jared Allen haul)
    Flowers for a 2015 4th
    Charles for a 2015 1st, 2016 2nd & 4th

    Chiefs start the 2015 draft with 7 picks. Also, they get at least 3 compensation picks. Now, add these picks! 5 more in 2015... 15 picks in the 2015 draft. Then, let Alex walk after 2014. You're now heading into the 2016 draft with 7 picks, 1 comp pick and 2 additional trade picks for a total of at least 10 picks in 2016. This is how you "build through the draft." You don't accomplish anything by trading away picks for vets. It needs to be the other way around. You need to be trading vets for picks. Currently, the Chiefs are stocked with high-value players that could bring back a bounty that would rebuild this team very quickly.


    To your point, Mongo, this kind of thing doesn't happen often. But, when you see teams who take the approach of building through the draft, you see it work over and over again. There's no Herschel Walker or Ricky Williams trade coming down the line. You have to find ways to generate more draft picks year in and year out. You can't keep hoping that you'll hit on cheap stars every year... you have to generate and produce those good, cheap players... and you do that by having numerous draft picks year in and year out. You get those additional picks by trading away those players who hold enough value that other teams are willing to part with the ones they own. If you have a starter that you can't re-sign or trade away, let them walk and get the comp pick.

    If I were a GM of a football team, one of my goals would be to average 9 or 10 picks per draft. If I'm not hitting that number, I'm not doing something right. When you come across the Tom Bradys, Brian Urlachers, Ray Lewis', and Peyton Mannings of the world... THOSE are the guys you pay a TON of cash for and keep them in your franchise for their entire career. But if the player coming up for contract isn't that once a generation type player, he shouldn't be untouchable. Shop that guy and get some value back. Keep a steady flow of good, young talent coming through your franchise and keep those 5 or 6 players you have built your team around. How long do you see players stick around New England or Pittsburgh? Every year, they come up with what seems like a whole group of guys you've never heard of. The Pats build around Brady and do it effectively through the draft. They ALWAYS have at least 7 picks if not more. Even if it means trading out of the first round, they STILL find a way to have at least 7 picks.

    You want a recipe for success in the NFL? Draft picks, draft picks, and more draft picks. Look at this Chiefs team... how many of our best players came from free agency or via trade as a player for another team?

    Give Reid/Dorsey 25 draft picks in 2015 and 2016 and I would bet the house we'd see a Super Bowl before we started the next decade.

  8. #8
    Member Since
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    4,322
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 606
    Given: 788

    Default


    0 Not allowed!
    Hali, Bowe, Flowers are NOT tradeable because of their age and their salaries. It's not happening.

  9. #9
    Member Since
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    172
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 21
    Given: 51

    Default


    0 Not allowed!
    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Hali, Bowe, Flowers are NOT tradeable because of their age and their salaries. It's not happening.
    Yep. I was trying to be positive. No one will trade for those guys.
    ...in my opinion

  10. #10
    Member Since
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    1,370
    Thumbs Up
    Received: 257
    Given: 790

    Default


    0 Not allowed!
    You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select?
    That's the question that sticks with me.

    Change is coming. My guess is that those with the best trade potential and least impact to the team will be gone first.

    As quickly as Reid made up his mind on Alex Smith, can't see him becoming an accounting casualty. I'm not sold on this batch of QB's in the draft this year. Maybe it's better just to wait until the negotiating point next year, focus on playing football. Next year, though...Could see us drafting one. If anything I'd think the QB on the hot seat would be Daniels.

Page 1 of 9 12345 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Alex Smith
    By deerhunter2 in forum KC Chiefs News and Discussion
    Replies: 63
    Last Post: 12-23-2013, 08:39 PM
  2. Alex Smith....Has to be done...game 3...what do you think?
    By ctchiefsfan in forum KC Chiefs News and Discussion
    Replies: 54
    Last Post: 09-24-2013, 01:57 AM
  3. Alex Smith v. Tony Romo v. Geno Smith
    By texaschief in forum KC Chiefs News and Discussion
    Replies: 63
    Last Post: 04-22-2013, 02:23 PM
  4. Here's who Alex Smith is
    By Ryfo18 in forum KC Chiefs News and Discussion
    Replies: 27
    Last Post: 03-11-2013, 01:24 PM
  5. Alex Smith...
    By Chiefster in forum KC Chiefs News and Discussion
    Replies: 118
    Last Post: 02-27-2013, 02:39 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •