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Thread: What Will Happen with Alex Smith?

  1. #1
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    Default What Will Happen with Alex Smith?


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    The fact that Alex Smith has not already been signed to an extension can only mean that the Chiefs are keeping their options open heading into the draft. The Chiefs brought in Tyler Bray (arguably the QB with the most upside from the 2013 draft class) as an UDFA who has already shown some nice promise. The 2014 draft looks loaded with QB talent. If there is a QB the Chiefs think could be their franchise future there at #23, don't be shocked to see them pull the trigger. They replaced the second most important position on the team last season with their first pick... why wouldn't they do the same thing with their first pick this season?

    The whole decision of whether or not to draft a QB will come down to what they truly think of Tyler Bray... NOT Alex Smith. I think Smith has priced himself out of KC. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a playoff season, it feels a lot more like the playoff season Edwards led Vermeil's Chiefs to rather than a sign of things to come. The Chiefs have maxed out their cap space and have gotten worse in doing so. This team will be facing some tough decisions in the next few seasons that will probably see Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Flowers among others leave the team. If those guys leave, it won't be so they can afford a guy like Alex Smith.

    Also consider that the Chiefs will be stock-piling picks for the 2015 draft. They will start with 7 and will probably get at least another 3 as compensatory picks from losing Albert, McCluster, a pair of starting OGs, and Tyson Jackson. Going with a 2nd or 3rd year QB in the form of this year's QB taken in the draft or Bray from last year will allow the Chiefs to get ANOTHER compensatory pick in 2016 by letting Smith walk. Smith won't be the only high-profile player to leave, either. I would expect some big names to either get traded this season with 2 seasons left before free agency, or next year when they still have 1 season of team control left.

    You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select? Doubtful. If the front office thinks they can get/or have their QBOTF in this draft or the last, they won't sign Alex Smith long term. In fact, I don't see a single scenario that has the Chiefs committing long-term money (especially $15m/yr) to Alex Smith. Andy Reid and John Dorsey want a guy they can develop over an extended period of time. (see Aaron Rodgers)

    I see a 3 year plan of something like the following:

    Trade Eric Berry for draft picks in 2015/16
    Let Alex Smith walk for picks
    Trade Hali for picks in '16
    Let Charles walk after '16
    Trade DJ for picks in '16
    Cut/trade Sean Smith after '14
    Sign Justin Houston long-term
    Sign Dontari Poe long-term
    Sign Bray (or '14 rookie) long-term

    10+ picks in 2015
    10+ picks in 2016

    All this among other moves, of course... but I think you are going to see a drastically different team heading into the 2016 team than many of us want to see. I will be absolutely shocked and dismayed if Alex Smith is the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2016 season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by matthewschiefs View Post
    1st I think it's all about negotiations both the Chiefs and Alex are trying to get the leverage to get the deal that both suits them. It happens all the time. IMO they are going to resign Alex.

    2nd If they were to draft a QB in the 1st round don't be shocked. Dorsey is a BPA guy. If that's a QB he will take him. Even if that QB would sit for a couple of years. It wouldn't be a shock. But I don't see it happening I think the top level QBs will be gone. And I really don't think this is a great qb class. Though if Aaron Murray is there in round 3 I would jump all over that

    Really? Eric Fisher was the BPA in the entire draft?

    I would be fine with Murray. In fact, I hope we trade down and pick him up in the second.

  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eydugstr View Post
    Unless Alex (or his agent) are being really stubborn, think this is more the case than anything.
    Smith's agent (I forget his name but I think it sounds a lot like condom) has a reputation as a real viper. I would be truly shocked if Smith was being real stubborn. I'm inclined to believe that as he said in an interview Smith has simply turned all negotiations over to his agent and will not interfere.......unless he feels that his career in KC is truly in jeopardy. I REALLY doubt Smith wants to go to ANOTHER new team and learn ANOTHER coach's way of running a West Coast Offense. Smith wants the biggest contract he can get, and I can't blame him. But I don't think he would want to go elsewhere over $7-$10 million over 5 years. I mean....if in the last 5 years of your career you are going to get $60 million or so is it really worth moving to yet another city for an extra $7-$10 million?

    My real concern is that right now based realistically on 1/2 a season, it he really worth somewhere around $12 million per year? If the last half of last season is the "REAL" Alex Smith" then I say "PAY THE MAN!" But I'm not convinced Smith is as good as he looked for the last 1/2 of last season--at least not enough that as a GM I would be willing to bet a 5 year--$60-$80 million contract on him with probably something like $35-$40 million guaranteed. I'm betting that the real sticking point in the negotiations is how much of the contract is guaranteed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eydugstr View Post
    But I'll say this, like the situation with Branden Albert last year, this is one headache that Dorsey doesn't need at the moment.
    And one he didn't expect I'll bet.

  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by NWO View Post
    Really? Eric Fisher was the BPA in the entire draft?

    I would be fine with Murray. In fact, I hope we trade down and pick him up in the second.
    Dorsey thought he was. You don't agree with that but we should see how that plays out. I'm not going to write a guy off after his rookie season. There is still hope for Fisher.
    ​BAN ROY


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    Quote Originally Posted by matthewschiefs View Post
    Dorsey thought he was. You don't agree with that but we should see how that plays out. I'm not going to write a guy off after his rookie season. There is still hope for Fisher.
    Yes, there is hope for Fisher, since he showed marked improvement over the last 5 games he played in & when I compare that to Branden Albert's last 5 games in 2010 when he gave up 9 sacks in his THIRD season, then yes, that tells me there is hope for Fisher. The question is weather Fisher can stay healthy and not get dinged up like last season. The 2013 Chiefs draft class got bit harder by the injury bug more so than any Chiefs rookie class I've ever seen in 4+ decades and nobody could have foreseen that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by matthewschiefs View Post
    Dorsey thought he was. You don't agree with that but we should see how that plays out. I'm not going to write a guy off after his rookie season. There is still hope for Fisher.

    I didn't say to write him off. I was only replying to your "BPA" comment in which Dorsey selected Fisher. According to PFF he was one of the worst tackles in the league last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Yes, there is hope for Fisher, since he showed marked improvement over the last 5 games he played in & when I compare that to Branden Albert's last 5 games in 2010 when he gave up 9 sacks in his THIRD season, then yes, that tells me there is hope for Fisher. The question is weather Fisher can stay healthy and not get dinged up like last season. The 2013 Chiefs draft class got bit harder by the injury bug more so than any Chiefs rookie class I've ever seen in 4+ decades and nobody could have foreseen that.

    Will post his PFF stats tomorrow. He was bad throughout the year.

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    Fisher will become a starter on this team. I'm pretty confident about that. As #1 picks overall he is disappointing. But as #1 pick overall in last years draft I think he was worthwhile given that we pretty much knew Branden Albert was gone this year. We had the bad luck to get the #1 pick overall in a very weak draft class. IMO had there been a really great WR in last year's class he would be a Chief today and Fisher would be elsewhere. But there was no "sure thing WR" last year, so we got Fisher.

    People argue a lot about BPA vs "need" but I don't think it is quite as black and white, right or wrong as that. I think that in the first 2 or 3 rounds you look at BPA, match that list against "need" and then make a decision. For example if in round #1 you look at players available when you go "on the clock" and the BPA (in your estimation) matches your #4 most important need but the #2 BPA available matched your #1 "need" then you go with the #2 BPA. Generally you multiply "need" X BPA and you go with the lowest number. Yes, that is simplistic, but it is a "general format" for rounds 1-3.

    For rounds 4 onwards you go purely with BPA on the theory that if they turn into a solid player but you don't "need" that position you can trade them off for a similar draft pick to what you paid for them.

    Anyway, that is how I would do it if I was a GM.....THANK GOD I'M NOT! The ulcers would kill me in a month.

    There is a lot of "voodoo", "gut feeling" and plain old fashioned "horse sense" involved in who to draft.
    Last edited by ctchiefsfan; 05-05-2014 at 05:54 PM.

  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by NWO View Post
    Will post his PFF stats tomorrow. He was bad throughout the year.
    And while you are at it, you can print out those PFF stats and if you run out of toilet paper then that printed stats page will come in handy, because about all it's really worth.

    PFF ratings regarding O-Lineman are worthless garbage and don't support your "He was bad throughout the year" statement at all & I know it's complete BS, because I watched Fisher closely in his last 5 games via NFL Game Rewind. The Buffalo game was pretty good, as well. The fact that you'd use PFF as a reference only tells me that you didn't watch Fisher closely at all.

    You're starting to sound like you crapped in your diaper when the selection of Fisher was announced and your mommy hasn't changed it for you since then.

  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by NWO View Post
    I didn't say to write him off. I was only replying to your "BPA" comment in which Dorsey selected Fisher. According to PFF he was one of the worst tackles in the league last year.
    You do no that happened AFTER the draft don't you? Before that happened Dorsey felt he was the BPA thinking long term. He might be he might now like any draft you just have to wait and see. It wasn't a draft that one would say was loaded with stars. That's the thing people who complain about the Fisher pick ignore. Who exactly was the all star prospect that we passed up? It's one of the questions I've asked this offseason that hasn't been answered.

    Fisher was a rookie last year. OF COURSE he's going to struggle. He was also playing a new position it just wasn't a recipe for success. I've said this offseason I don't really like how they are handling Fisher. They drafted him changed his position and just when he was showing improvement at that spot they are saying forget all that lets go back to LT.IMO I think they are setting him up to fail. But we shall see.
    ​BAN ROY


  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by NWO View Post
    Will post his PFF stats tomorrow. He was bad throughout the year.
    No one said he was great at the end of the year. But would you agree he got better? IMO he showed improvement. And as a rookie that's about what you would expect. This offseason he has added some weight so he's not going to be as easy to push over and a year under his belt I'm looking forward to seeing him in the preseason. Hopeing that my concerns about him are laid to rest.
    ​BAN ROY


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