What Will Happen with Alex Smith?

[texaschief]

The fact that Alex Smith has not already been signed to an extension can only mean that the Chiefs are keeping their options open heading into the draft. The Chiefs brought in Tyler Bray (arguably the QB with the most upside from the 2013 draft class) as an UDFA who has already shown some nice promise. The 2014 draft looks loaded with QB talent. If there is a QB the Chiefs think could be their franchise future there at #23, don't be shocked to see them pull the trigger. They replaced the second most important position on the team last season with their first pick... why wouldn't they do the same thing with their first pick this season?

The whole decision of whether or not to draft a QB will come down to what they truly think of Tyler Bray... NOT Alex Smith. I think Smith has priced himself out of KC. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a playoff season, it feels a lot more like the playoff season Edwards led Vermeil's Chiefs to rather than a sign of things to come. The Chiefs have maxed out their cap space and have gotten worse in doing so. This team will be facing some tough decisions in the next few seasons that will probably see Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Flowers among others leave the team. If those guys leave, it won't be so they can afford a guy like Alex Smith.

Also consider that the Chiefs will be stock-piling picks for the 2015 draft. They will start with 7 and will probably get at least another 3 as compensatory picks from losing Albert, McCluster, a pair of starting OGs, and Tyson Jackson. Going with a 2nd or 3rd year QB in the form of this year's QB taken in the draft or Bray from last year will allow the Chiefs to get ANOTHER compensatory pick in 2016 by letting Smith walk. Smith won't be the only high-profile player to leave, either. I would expect some big names to either get traded this season with 2 seasons left before free agency, or next year when they still have 1 season of team control left.

You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select? Doubtful. If the front office thinks they can get/or have their QBOTF in this draft or the last, they won't sign Alex Smith long term. In fact, I don't see a single scenario that has the Chiefs committing long-term money (especially $15m/yr) to Alex Smith. Andy Reid and John Dorsey want a guy they can develop over an extended period of time. (see Aaron Rodgers)

I see a 3 year plan of something like the following:

Trade Eric Berry for draft picks in 2015/16
Let Alex Smith walk for picks
Trade Hali for picks in '16
Let Charles walk after '16
Trade DJ for picks in '16
Cut/trade Sean Smith after '14
Sign Justin Houston long-term
Sign Dontari Poe long-term
Sign Bray (or '14 rookie) long-term

10+ picks in 2015
10+ picks in 2016

All this among other moves, of course... but I think you are going to see a drastically different team heading into the 2016 team than many of us want to see. I will be absolutely shocked and dismayed if Alex Smith is the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2016 season.

[ctchiefsfan]

No one said he was great at the end of the year. But would you agree he got better? IMO he showed improvement. And as a rookie that's about what you would expect. This offseason he has added some weight so he's not going to be as easy to push over and a year under his belt I'm looking forward to seeing him in the preseason. Hoping that my concerns about him are laid to rest.

That's the thing. In a good draft class you pretty much expect the #1 pick overall to be a star from the start. But last years draft class was nothing special.......and that is being polite. With a very weak draft class you simply hope that the #1 pick overall becomes a good solid starter and accept that it might take a year or two. Or that is how I see it.

[brdempsey69]

That's the thing. In a good draft class you pretty much expect the #1 pick overall to be a star from the start. But last years draft class was nothing special.......and that is being polite. With a very weak draft class you simply hope that the #1 pick overall becomes a good solid starter and accept that it might take a year or two. Or that is how I see it.

Precisely, and especially when that player is being asked to play a new position in his 1st year in the NFL against a pretty good series of opponents ( something that the PFF trash DOESN'T take into account for ). I'll tell you what, go watch some game footage of Ryan O'Callaghan playing RT for the Chiefs in 2009 -- he wasn't half-bad, he was ALL bad.

And I was certainly one of the people opposed to having Fisher play out of position just for the sake of a crybaby LT wannabe like Albert, because Albert was wanting to be paid top-5 money for a position that he was only average at, and never should have playing at to begin with.

[ctchiefsfan]

Exactly. Of all the years where we had to suck so bad that we got the #1 pick overall it just HAD to be 2012 ....right???? My feeling is that Fisher will do a good job this year. And in the 2015 season he will certainly surpass anything Branden Albert ever was. Stinks that we have to wait that long for the #1 pick overall to become that meaningful, but that is what the 2013 draft was.

[Eydugstr]

Smith's agent (I forget his name but I think it sounds a lot like condom) has a reputation as a real viper. I would be truly shocked if Smith was being real stubborn. I'm inclined to believe that as he said in an interview Smith has simply turned all negotiations over to his agent and will not interfere.......unless he feels that his career in KC is truly in jeopardy. I REALLY doubt Smith wants to go to ANOTHER new team and learn ANOTHER coach's way of running a West Coast Offense. Smith wants the biggest contract he can get, and I can't blame him. But I don't think he would want to go elsewhere over $7-$10 million over 5 years. I mean....if in the last 5 years of your career you are going to get $60 million or so is it really worth moving to yet another city for an extra $7-$10 million?

My real concern is that right now based realistically on 1/2 a season, it he really worth somewhere around $12 million per year? If the last half of last season is the "REAL" Alex Smith" then I say "PAY THE MAN!" But I'm not convinced Smith is as good as he looked for the last 1/2 of last season--at least not enough that as a GM I would be willing to bet a 5 year--$60-$80 million contract on him with probably something like $35-$40 million guaranteed. I'm betting that the real sticking point in the negotiations is how much of the contract is guaranteed.



And one he didn't expect I'll bet.

Agreed. Another thing to consider, is how Alex will get viewed if he goes to another team after playing just a season or two in KC. Chances are slim that he'd be playing for a coach as good or better than Andy Reid. I'd rather just keep him here, which is better for both KC and Alex in the long run.

[brdempsey69]

Agreed. Another thing to consider, is how Alex will get viewed if he goes to another team after playing just a season or two in KC. Chances are slim that he'd be playing for a coach as good or better than Andy Reid. I'd rather just keep him here, which is better for both KC and Alex in the long run.

I have to believe that something will get worked out with Alex. There may be some bumps in the road along the way, but it would clearly be in the best interests of both parties for Alex to stay in KC.

[Eydugstr]

Will post his PFF stats tomorrow. He was bad throughout the year.

PFF...I'm not sure I'd be using that as a reference material. PFF is to the NFL what Dungeons & Dragons is to medieval history.

[brdempsey69]

PFF...I'm not sure I'd be using that as a reference material. PFF is to the NFL what Dungeons & Dragons is to medieval history.

Especially regarding O-Lineman. Pure worthless garbage. He doesn't realize it, but he lost all credibility using PFF as a reference and further shot down his own argument.

[Eydugstr]

I have to believe that something will get worked out with Alex. There may be some bumps in the road along the way, but it would clearly be in the best interests of both parties for Alex to stay in KC.

I think it's going to get worked out. The only QB I know of that got interviewed by KC was Garappolo, and while he's a great prospect to have developing on the bench, didn't see anything in him that would make me believe Reid would start him over Smith, Daniels or Bray.

But let's play devil's advocate and say that Alex Smith has other plans. Where would he go? Houston? Tampa?

[jason1981]

I think this is a ploy to scare a team into thinking we might draft a qb so they will try to trade up to us. Is it just a coincidence this news broke out within a week of the draft?

[brdempsey69]

I think it's going to get worked out. The only QB I know of that got interviewed by KC was Garappolo, and while he's a great prospect to have developing on the bench, didn't see anything in him that would make me believe Reid would start him over Smith, Daniels or Bray.

But let's play devil's advocate and say that Alex Smith has other plans. Where would he go? Houston? Tampa?

If Houston wants Alex Smith, then have them either send the #1 overall pick to KC in the 2014 draft or send a 2014 2nd rounder ( #33 overall ) and a 2015 2nd rounder.

I think this is a ploy to scare a team into thinking we might draft a qb so they will try to trade up to us. Is it just a coincidence this news broke out within a week of the draft?

I'm thinking the same thought. The Chiefs brass may be trying to cover the base of the top 5 WR's being off the board when it comes their turn to select at #23 or perhaps they really do want to trade down for more picks first and foremost.