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Thread: What Will Happen with Alex Smith?

  1. #1
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    Default What Will Happen with Alex Smith?


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    The fact that Alex Smith has not already been signed to an extension can only mean that the Chiefs are keeping their options open heading into the draft. The Chiefs brought in Tyler Bray (arguably the QB with the most upside from the 2013 draft class) as an UDFA who has already shown some nice promise. The 2014 draft looks loaded with QB talent. If there is a QB the Chiefs think could be their franchise future there at #23, don't be shocked to see them pull the trigger. They replaced the second most important position on the team last season with their first pick... why wouldn't they do the same thing with their first pick this season?

    The whole decision of whether or not to draft a QB will come down to what they truly think of Tyler Bray... NOT Alex Smith. I think Smith has priced himself out of KC. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a playoff season, it feels a lot more like the playoff season Edwards led Vermeil's Chiefs to rather than a sign of things to come. The Chiefs have maxed out their cap space and have gotten worse in doing so. This team will be facing some tough decisions in the next few seasons that will probably see Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Flowers among others leave the team. If those guys leave, it won't be so they can afford a guy like Alex Smith.

    Also consider that the Chiefs will be stock-piling picks for the 2015 draft. They will start with 7 and will probably get at least another 3 as compensatory picks from losing Albert, McCluster, a pair of starting OGs, and Tyson Jackson. Going with a 2nd or 3rd year QB in the form of this year's QB taken in the draft or Bray from last year will allow the Chiefs to get ANOTHER compensatory pick in 2016 by letting Smith walk. Smith won't be the only high-profile player to leave, either. I would expect some big names to either get traded this season with 2 seasons left before free agency, or next year when they still have 1 season of team control left.

    You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select? Doubtful. If the front office thinks they can get/or have their QBOTF in this draft or the last, they won't sign Alex Smith long term. In fact, I don't see a single scenario that has the Chiefs committing long-term money (especially $15m/yr) to Alex Smith. Andy Reid and John Dorsey want a guy they can develop over an extended period of time. (see Aaron Rodgers)

    I see a 3 year plan of something like the following:

    Trade Eric Berry for draft picks in 2015/16
    Let Alex Smith walk for picks
    Trade Hali for picks in '16
    Let Charles walk after '16
    Trade DJ for picks in '16
    Cut/trade Sean Smith after '14
    Sign Justin Houston long-term
    Sign Dontari Poe long-term
    Sign Bray (or '14 rookie) long-term

    10+ picks in 2015
    10+ picks in 2016

    All this among other moves, of course... but I think you are going to see a drastically different team heading into the 2016 team than many of us want to see. I will be absolutely shocked and dismayed if Alex Smith is the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2016 season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NWO View Post
    Dorsey wants to build through the draft correct? Play Alex this year and draft a quarterback next. It's that simple.
    With the cap space that the Chiefs DON'T have, they don't have much choice this year. Doesn't mean they won't resign Alex after 2014 and letting Alex walk after 2014 and drafting a QB is more than likely to backfire than to work out. It just so happens the Chiefs are ZERO for 17 drafting QB's since 1970, regardless of the regime in place.
    Last edited by brdempsey69; 05-06-2014 at 06:45 PM.

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    I'm hoping that we don't jack with the current QB situation. We just don't have all the tools in place to make a rookie QB look great, and I'm not counting on this draft to change minds. If we're going to trade anybody would much rather it be Eric Berry or Brandon Flowers. Getting rid of either wouldn't be the season killer as losing Alex Smith would.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eydugstr View Post
    I'm hoping that we don't jack with the current QB situation. We just don't have all the tools in place to make a rookie QB look great, and I'm not counting on this draft to change minds. If we're going to trade anybody would much rather it be Eric Berry or Brandon Flowers. Getting rid of either wouldn't be the season killer as losing Alex Smith would.
    Flowers is probably untradeable due to his age and salary. Berry could be traded, but I highly doubt anyone is going to give up more that a 2nd or 3rd round pick and it's more likely those teams would just draft a Safety rather than trade for Berry because many believe that 10 mill. a season is paying too much for a Safety - - especially one that struggles with covering TE's and WR's that are skilled route runners.

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    Quote Originally Posted by texaschief View Post
    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200...randon-flowers


    Ha! Say what you want about the contract. They're not talking about this unless other teams are knocking on the door. He's not in negotiations... there's no reason to leak this unless there's some fire under the smoke. I'd be ok with a 3rd rounder if the Chiefs could get it.
    The question is, will anyone bite? How much dead money would the team be out?

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    Was it Dorsey or Reid that said (paraphrasing) he believes it is a good idea to draft a QB every two or three years, regardless of need?

    Bears HC Mark Trestman recently observed that since Tom Brady was drafted, NO QB taken in round 3 or later has become a long term quality starter. In other words, any QB taken after round 2 is a wasted pick. If the Chiefs are serious about drafting a QB they would HAVE to do it in the first round. I would hate that. With Smith locked in for 2014 and no R2 pick, we have too many needs to do that.

    I think starting the rumour is a good idea though, for 2 reasons. It puts added pressure on Smith's agent to reach a deal and it may encourage some other teams to trade up and give us some extra picks.

    Here is the problem. Smith's agent is known for wanting unreasonable deals. Alex may not be worth $15-18 million, but if no deal is reached and he walks, he can probably get that in FA, especially if he has a good year this year. If that happens and the Chiefs DON'T take a QB this year, they will have to gamble on Daniels, Bray and whoever is available when they draft next year.

    I would still prefer to take that gamble rather than take a QB with our first pick this year. With the tougher schedule this season, it is possible that Smith won't have as good a year as he did last season and we can get him cheaper at the end of this season than we can right now. We would also have more picks, higher picks, and probably better QB candidates to choose from. Tyler would have another year to develop and could possibly be our starter in 2015 if we can't sign Smith.

    By playing hardball, the Chiefs are gambling that they can get Smith at a bargain price and won't lose him. Smith's agent is gambling that his value won't go down if he doesn't make a deal. The Chiefs hold most of the high cards in this gambit. At the very worst, they can draft a QB of the future next May and, if they have to, franchise Smith for one year. Alex stands to possibly lose a lot of money if he doesn't reach a deal soon when his value is at it's highest.

    I love Alex and think he is a better QB than most give him credit for. I would be willing to give him $15 or 16 Million per year for an additional 2 or 3 years, but not much more than that. Unfortunately, I don't think that would be enough to keep him.
    Last edited by TopekaRoy; 05-06-2014 at 10:13 PM.
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    Covered it nicely TopekaRoy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan View Post
    Covered it nicely TopekaRoy.
    I agree, but I must say the whole scenario is starting to stink.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eydugstr View Post
    The question is, will anyone bite? How much dead money would the team be out?
    I believe that if we trade him the other team picks up the balance of his contract so we shouldn't be out any dead money, but we'd save $10.5 million in cap money this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    I agree, but I must say the whole scenario is starting to stink.
    Yeah....I'm not enjoying it. But if it brought us a good trade down opportunity then it would be worth all these rumors. I think it is entirely possible that this is all either...

    1) Just part of the negotiating tactics Dorsey is using or

    2) An effort to get somebody to trade up for our # 23.

    It's the off season. The draft is coming. Rumors are flying. But usually most of the rumors are just that--rumors. Stuff that the talking heads dream up to justify what they get paid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan View Post
    I believe that if we trade him the other team picks up the balance of his contract so we shouldn't be out any dead money, but we'd save $10.5 million in cap money this year.
    According to OverTheCap.com. Flowers' Contract carries $7M in dead money this season ($3.5M cap savings), $4M in dead money in 2015 ($7.5M cap savings) and $1M in dead money in 2016 ($8.75M in cap savings). If we trade him now we would still be on the hook for $12.75 million total.
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