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Thread: What Will Happen with Alex Smith?

  1. #1
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    Default What Will Happen with Alex Smith?

    The fact that Alex Smith has not already been signed to an extension can only mean that the Chiefs are keeping their options open heading into the draft. The Chiefs brought in Tyler Bray (arguably the QB with the most upside from the 2013 draft class) as an UDFA who has already shown some nice promise. The 2014 draft looks loaded with QB talent. If there is a QB the Chiefs think could be their franchise future there at #23, don't be shocked to see them pull the trigger. They replaced the second most important position on the team last season with their first pick... why wouldn't they do the same thing with their first pick this season?

    The whole decision of whether or not to draft a QB will come down to what they truly think of Tyler Bray... NOT Alex Smith. I think Smith has priced himself out of KC. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a playoff season, it feels a lot more like the playoff season Edwards led Vermeil's Chiefs to rather than a sign of things to come. The Chiefs have maxed out their cap space and have gotten worse in doing so. This team will be facing some tough decisions in the next few seasons that will probably see Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, and Brandon Flowers among others leave the team. If those guys leave, it won't be so they can afford a guy like Alex Smith.

    Also consider that the Chiefs will be stock-piling picks for the 2015 draft. They will start with 7 and will probably get at least another 3 as compensatory picks from losing Albert, McCluster, a pair of starting OGs, and Tyson Jackson. Going with a 2nd or 3rd year QB in the form of this year's QB taken in the draft or Bray from last year will allow the Chiefs to get ANOTHER compensatory pick in 2016 by letting Smith walk. Smith won't be the only high-profile player to leave, either. I would expect some big names to either get traded this season with 2 seasons left before free agency, or next year when they still have 1 season of team control left.

    You may disagree with me and not believe that this team is about to go through a major overhaul, but do you really think John Dorsey and Andy Reid are going to let their their collective futures in KC be decided by and aging roster that they didn't select? Doubtful. If the front office thinks they can get/or have their QBOTF in this draft or the last, they won't sign Alex Smith long term. In fact, I don't see a single scenario that has the Chiefs committing long-term money (especially $15m/yr) to Alex Smith. Andy Reid and John Dorsey want a guy they can develop over an extended period of time. (see Aaron Rodgers)

    I see a 3 year plan of something like the following:

    Trade Eric Berry for draft picks in 2015/16
    Let Alex Smith walk for picks
    Trade Hali for picks in '16
    Let Charles walk after '16
    Trade DJ for picks in '16
    Cut/trade Sean Smith after '14
    Sign Justin Houston long-term
    Sign Dontari Poe long-term
    Sign Bray (or '14 rookie) long-term

    10+ picks in 2015
    10+ picks in 2016

    All this among other moves, of course... but I think you are going to see a drastically different team heading into the 2016 team than many of us want to see. I will be absolutely shocked and dismayed if Alex Smith is the starting QB for the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2016 season.

  2. #101
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    .... back on topic... I have realized what Alex Smith is... he's basically a Ponzi scheme. lol

    We invested in him, he turned around a showed a good return on investment. Now, he wants us to invest A LOT more in him based on a moderate return on the previous investment...


    IT'S A TRAP!! DON'T DO IT. Cut your losses now and move forward with whoever you've got after this season.

  3. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by texaschief View Post
    .... back on topic... I have realized what Alex Smith is... he's basically a Ponzi scheme. lol

    We invested in him, he turned around a showed a good return on investment. Now, he wants us to invest A LOT more in him based on a moderate return on the previous investment...


    IT'S A TRAP!! DON'T DO IT. Cut your losses now and move forward with whoever you've got after this season.
    Yep. If he's going to demand Romo, Cutler, Flacco money, good riddance.

  4. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by texaschief View Post
    .... back on topic... I have realized what Alex Smith is... he's basically a Ponzi scheme. lol

    We invested in him, he turned around a showed a good return on investment. Now, he wants us to invest A LOT more in him based on a moderate return on the previous investment...


    IT'S A TRAP!! DON'T DO IT. Cut your losses now and move forward with whoever you've got after this season.
    Good to get back on topic

    But at this point I disagree.

    I think it's best to see what Alex does this season before making the choice to move on. If we see more of the Smith that we saw at the end of last year IMO LOCK HIM UP let him finish his career a Chief. He still a a good 4 or 5 years left he hasn't taken as much of a beating as most of the QBs his age have. If Smith can give us a full year of what he did at the end of last season GO WITH HIM.
    TopekaRoy is my hero!

  5. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post
    Albert playing guard in college has nothing to do with how well he plays LT in the NFL.
    It most certainly did & everybody saw his struggles adapting to the position, especially in 2009 and 2010, and precisely why a great majority were wanting him replaced.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post
    The rest of the LT market got paid well...Monroe, Veldheer. There was plenty of demand for Albert to get him paid well. He got what he wanted. Can't fault the guy for that.
    Yes I can. I can fault any player overvaluing himself & wanting to be paid more than he's worth. Obviously, Dorsey also faulted him and wouldn't pay him and let him walk.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post

    He did commit bad penalties. Worthless PFF has him down for 9 penalties in 800 snaps and 5 in 722 snaps in 2012. That doesn't mean his skillset is instantly docked into some low tier LT that sucks. Okung (the guy you wanted to replace Albert) was charged with 7 penalties in only 441 snaps last year and 13 (yes 13) in 945 snaps in 2012. He's been one of the worst in the league when it comes to penalties. I don't mind using that as a barometer for LT play, but there's way more involved.
    There. You said it yourself -- "way more involved". Such as the series of opponents that Albert & Okung went up against. Which of the two has gone up against the better series of opponents over the last 4 years? Do you Albert's penalty count would have been as low, had he gone up against the same series of opponents that Okung did? Highly doubtful. Okung is still the superior talent when both are 100% healthy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post

    That was back in the outdated days of the ridiculous rookie cap. Thanksfully, those days are over. It's really not Berry's or the Chiefs' fault that he makes that much. It doesn't mean he's been a bad player, it just means he makes too much and was lucky the league payscale overvalued highly drafted incoming rookies.
    Yes it is the Chiefs fault -- specifically Pioli. If he had a brain in his head, he'd have been smart enough to realize that getting a two-fold upgrade to the O-Line with the selection Okung was a far better value than drafting a Safety that possessed neither elite speed or pass-coverage skills. Berry has been little more than a hero-worship icon & opposing offenses don't change their approach to the Chiefs defense because of Berry and opposing teams aren't afraid to throw at him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post
    He needs to get better at moving guys when he run blocks. Too many times he goes nowhere and the defender wins at the line of scrimmage. When he gets in space, he is fantastic at getting in the way to spring running backs free.
    And what Albert getting almost literally ran over on running plays & driven into the backfield like I've seen countless times, even though Albert weighed 316 lbs.? That would lead one to believe that Fisher playing at 295 -- 300 lbs and at least being able to keep his guy at the LOS just simply needs to gain weight to correct the problem. And did you notice that Fisher didn't grab any DB's and twist them around like he was trying to do the two-step waltz and needlessly draw a flag?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ryfo18 View Post

    He also needs to stop getting beat inside. He's very slow to adjust to inside moves. Getting stronger is a must, and will help with his punch when guys try to go inside. Unfortunately he's been on the shelf all offseason after labrum surgery.
    He was slow in the 1st half of the season, not so much in his last 5 games. Having a bum left shoulder didn't help with giving up the inside charge, but he will have to improve in that area, regardless.

    He hasn't been totally on the shelf. He's been in KC all offseason and working out to an extent that his surgery permitted. The Chiefs strength coaches have been with him through the offseason.

  6. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    It most certainly did & everybody saw his struggles adapting to the position, especially in 2009 and 2010, and precisely why a great majority were wanting him replaced.
    He wasn't good early in his career. Neither was Alex Smith. Who cares?

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    Yes I can. I can fault any player overvaluing himself & wanting to be paid more than he's worth. Obviously, Dorsey also faulted him and wouldn't pay him and let him walk.
    He obviously didn't overvalue himself. He got what he wanted in the end. Stop.

    Quote Originally Posted by brdempsey69 View Post
    There. You said it yourself -- "way more involved". Such as the series of opponents that Albert & Okung went up against. Which of the two has gone up against the better series of opponents over the last 4 years? Do you Albert's penalty count would have been as low, had he gone up against the same series of opponents that Okung did? Highly doubtful. Okung is still the superior talent when both are 100% healthy.
    Well since Okung has missed 30% of his team's games since he was drafted, it's impossible to say. Albert has missed 12% of his team's total games. Staley played against the same competition for the most part in 2012 and had 6 penalties.

    Nevertheless, Okung committed two penalties in the Super Bowl against a Von Miller-less pass rush. So yes, he has a knack for committing penalties, like Albert, regardless of the competition.



    We get it, you don't like Albert and he's an awful LT. Now back to Alex Smith.
    Last edited by Ryfo18; 05-07-2014 at 04:24 PM.

  7. #106
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    texaschief....I think you are being just a little harsh.

    Alex Smith showed us he was a pretty decent quaterback last year. He even showed some flashes of brilliance. And without a doubt he showed a great personal drive to "just get the damned job done".

    He did look less-than-impressive the first half of the season. But, a certain amount of that should be written off to new team, new scheme, new coach. But he looked a lot better as an individual player the last half of the season.

    I'm not at all sure however that last season earned him a long term $15 or so million per year contract with a lot of it guaranteed.

    I can easily see him being worth a 5 year $70 million contract extension with say $15-$18 million guaranteed. Not what I would like to see us pay him, but I could live with it. That would really only commit us to him for 2014 and 2015 and if done right might free up a little cap space this year. But I doubt his "condom agent" would do that. In today's NFL, it's all about guaranteed money.

    Alternatively, I'm happy to see him play out 2014 and depending on his performance either let him go in free agency (compensatory picks, a troubled team would probably grab him so the picks for the 2015 season would probably be good) or maybe sign a lower deal based on what looks like a rough schedule this year. If we went 7-9 or 8-8 in 2014 for that should certainly lower the demands.

    I'd like to see us keep Alex Smith....unless Reid honestly thinks that in Bray or Chase Daniel we have some sort of "secret nuclear weapon" that only needs one more year of development.

    In short, I figure that I have to trust Reid on this issue.

  8. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthewschiefs View Post
    Good to get back on topic

    But at this point I disagree.

    I think it's best to see what Alex does this season before making the choice to move on. If we see more of the Smith that we saw at the end of last year IMO LOCK HIM UP let him finish his career a Chief. He still a a good 4 or 5 years left he hasn't taken as much of a beating as most of the QBs his age have. If Smith can give us a full year of what he did at the end of last season GO WITH HIM.
    WELL SAID!!!!! This looks like a much tougher season than last year. If he plays through this season like he did through most of the last several games last season then he is worth the money his agent is looking for. But he hasn't proved it yet....at least not in my opinion. Let him play this season and show us who "The Real Alex Smith" is.

  9. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by ctchiefsfan View Post
    texaschief....I think you are being just a little harsh.

    Alex Smith showed us he was a pretty decent quaterback last year. He even showed some flashes of brilliance. And without a doubt he showed a great personal drive to "just get the damned job done".

    He did look less-than-impressive the first half of the season. But, a certain amount of that should be written off to new team, new scheme, new coach. But he looked a lot better as an individual player the last half of the season.

    I'm not at all sure however that last season earned him a long term $15 or so million per year contract with a lot of it guaranteed.

    I can easily see him being worth a 5 year $70 million contract extension with say $15-$18 million guaranteed. Not what I would like to see us pay him, but I could live with it. That would really only commit us to him for 2014 and 2015 and if done right might free up a little cap space this year. But I doubt his "condom agent" would do that. In today's NFL, it's all about guaranteed money.

    Alternatively, I'm happy to see him play out 2014 and depending on his performance either let him go in free agency (compensatory picks, a troubled team would probably grab him so the picks for the 2015 season would probably be good) or maybe sign a lower deal based on what looks like a rough schedule this year. If we went 7-9 or 8-8 in 2014 for that should certainly lower the demands.

    I'd like to see us keep Alex Smith....unless Reid honestly thinks that in Bray or Chase Daniel we have some sort of "secret nuclear weapon" that only needs one more year of development.

    In short, I figure that I have to trust Reid on this issue.
    You can’t call Alex Smith a good (B-grade, top 10) QB in one breath and then say he’s not worth $14-17M. Guess what his agent, Tom Condon, is probably saying -- he’s b-grade, top 10 and deserves Flacco money. That’s why this isn’t getting done. So if you like Alex Smith and think he’s good you have to accept he’s going to eat up the cap if you want to keep him.

    In sports it’s hard to be the lone voice of reason and compete with those willing to overspend. Even in the best free agency system of all, the NFL, one idiot overpaying sets the market value for everyone else.

    I agree with you. Wait and see how Al does against top teams before you pay him. It may cost more in the end, but I’d have a better feeling about overpaying him.
    ...in my opinion

  10. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    Rubbish? I did not make the story up.
    And what did you provide to validate that story, besides nothing? Why would Albert be recruited as LT to Virginia when Ferguson was already there. It's because he wasn't.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post

    The Berry worshippers know more than the Russell Okung boot lickers.
    Do they really? You sure don't sound like it. Wanting Okung drafted was from a football standpoint, not a hero-worship standpoint. Getting a two-fold upgrade to the O-Line at that time was a far better value than getting a Safety that doesn't have elite speed or elite coverage skills. At least Okung had elite strength to go with 36-inch arms.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    You wanted Okung and have probably gone out of your way to discredit Berry ever since.
    Quite the contrary. Didn't need to discredit him. Only needed to watch what has transpired with him on the football field & watching him try to cover TE's and WR's that are skilled route runners & simply point out the truth of the matter. As well as watching that big TE Gresham of the Bengals mock Berry right to his face in that 2012 game.

    In other words, Berry done a good enough job on his own proving that he was overdrafted & overhyped.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    Fact is EB was drafted based on the fact that he is a game changer and a special talent.
    Guess again. It was politics orchestrated by Pioli due to the unpopularity of the Tyson Jackson pick the year before. Dorsey/Reid would not have made that pick. Neither would Dick Vermeil, Marty, or Hank Stram. They know that drafting Safeties that high is a mistake.

    Berry hasn't been a game changer or a special talent & isn't that much better than Pollard, the guy he replaced.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    His 2 TD, 4 sacks, and 10 QB hurries last year are evidence of that. Despite his “struggles in coverage” his 3 INT ranked 6th amongst all safeties and first amongst SS.
    Big deal. It don't change the fact that the best SS in football in 2013 wore #31 up in Seattle and not only did he also have 3 picks, Kam Chancellor starred in the 2013 post-season going against TE's Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, and Julius Thomas consecutively, whereas Berry struggled in the playoff game against Fleener.

    Therefore, what's really evidenced is that you don't have to spend a top 5 pick on a Safety to get good safety play, as Chancellor came from that same draft in round 5 and he's clearly been a better player than Berry since he took over the SS job for Seattle in 2011

    BTW, Greg Wesley picked Tom Brady 3 times in a 2005 game and had 6 picks over an entire season 3 times in 2002, 2003, and 2005, and yet you were saying "Wesley couldn't hold Berry's jock" and now of course, are extolling the virtue of Berry making 3 INT's in an entire season. Looks like Wesley could not only hold Berry's jock, but he could use that jock to rip Berry's head off & take a dump down Berry's neck, as far a making INT's go.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    No matter. Your opinion of Berry is in the minority.
    One could interpret that as vast majority of dumba$$es outnumbering those possessing common sense and logic. So what? My analysis is based on what has transpired on the football field. & what has transpired has proven that he was overdrafted and he can be replaced with a cheaper alternative.

    You're starting to sound like you crapped in your diaper because someone committed sacrilege against your false god that you worship so reverently ( Berry), as well as due to having to face the fact that selecting Berry at #5 overall wasn't the right choice.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    Your opinion of Albert vs Fisher by comparing 2010 season stats is worthless. Today, Fisher is a project and Albert is a B grade tackle.
    What opinion? I provided evidence to back it up as fact. Fisher did perform better in his last 5 games in 2013 than Albert did in his final 5 games in 2010 -- that is a fact. You are calling it "opinion" because it's not what you want to hear. And like I said it provides reasonable belief that Fisher can become a very good Tackle in the NFL much quicker than Albert did. Albert was the project LT for 3 years. To me Albert was grade C, not B, the last 3 years.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    A LT is just as available in this draft.
    Not at #23. Robinson, Matthews, and Lewan will all be off the board by #23 and those are the only ones that I'd compare to Fisher.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    Eric Fisher himself might have been available at #23 in this year’s class.
    Your aunt would be your uncle if she had balls, too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    So Ansah + Albert @$7-8M >> Fisher, no matter how you slice it. It’s moot, anyway.
    Is that so? Did Ansah out produce Justin Houston or Hali? Did Ansah or Jordan win starting jobs early on? Does Ansah even fit a 3-4?

    On the other hand, Fisher being willing to play the right side, gave Donald Stephenson a chance to get practice reps & playing time on both sides of the O-Line & now the Chiefs have two young, athletic Tackles that have experience playing on both sides of the O-Line -- something that Albert couldn't offer and thereby making Fisher and Stephenson more valuable and Albert expendable.

  11. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mongo View Post
    Fair enough. Drop my commentary. No stat accounts for quality of opponent or injury status. So why do those factors only render OL measurements worthless? Or, are you saying all stats are worthless? Or, are you saying that other stats do in fact account for quality of opponent and injury status?
    I have said neither.

    I have said repeatedly that the overhead camera trumps the stat sheets regarding O-Lineman. The stats that are most important to me are points on the scoreboard and the number of W's in the Won-Lost column.

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