Chiefs Run Defense: In-depth Analysis

[TopekaRoy]

Well that was fun! I used ESPN's play-by-play summary to look at every rushing play ran by Chiefs opponents and entered the results into a database. Then I sorted the data from lowest to highest. There were 220 plays. The mean was 3 yds. That means that 110 plays went for 3 yds or less and 110 plays went for 3 yds or more. Since every rush play is rounded to the nearest yd, I took the middle quintile (41st to 60th percentiles) and averaged them out. This gave me a more precise mean of 3.72 yds per carry.

47 plays (21.4%) went for no gain or a loss.
112 plays (50.9%) went for 3 yds or less and
143 plays (65%) went for 5 yds or less.
77 plays (35%) went for more than 5 yds.
37 plays (16.8%) went for 10 yds or more. That is an average of 4.1 "big plays" per game. (see analysis below)
Only 10 plays (4.5% or 1.1 plays per game) went for 15 yds or more and
only 5 plays (2.3% or 0.56 plays per game) went for 20 or more yds. The longest gain given up so far this year was 27 yds.

Here is a breakdown of every 3rd down in which opponents tried to convert by running the ball and the results.

Rush on 3rd down:
TEN 3rd and 20 at TEN 26 - 16 yd gain. punted
TEN 3rd and 1 at KC 16 - 3yd gain. 1st down
TEN 3rd and 17 at KC 36 - 7 yd gain. punted
TEN 3rd and 12 at TEN 49 - 6 yd gain. punted
NE 3rd and 2 at KC 42 - 0 yds. punted
DEN 3rd and 24 at DEN 25 - 23 yd gain. Led to 4th down conversion.
MIA 3rd and 10 at KC 45 - 4 yd gain. punted
SF 3rd and 6 at SF 11 - 7 yd gain. 1st down
SF 3rd and 1 at KC 20 - 2 yd gain. 1st down
SF 3rd and 1 at SF 29 - 0 yds. Led to 4th down conversion
SF 3rd and 1 at KC 35 - -1 yd. Led to 4th down conversion attempt with fake punt. 5 yd penalty on KC for 12 men on field resulted in 1st down.

SD 3rd and 25 at SD 5 - 2 yd gain. punted
STL 3rd and 1 at KC 47 - O yds. punted
NYJ 3rd and 7 at NYJ 32 - 6 yd gain. punted
NYJ 3rd and 1 at KC 42 - 0 yds. Led to 4th down conversion.
BUF 3rd and 1 at KC 9 - 1 yd gain. 1st down
BUF 3rd and 5 at BUF 47 - -2 yds. punted
BUF 3rd and 2 at BUF 45 - 1 yd gain. Led to 4th down conversion attempt, 4th and 1. BUF penalized. punted
BUF 3rd and 1 at KC 16 - 1 yd gain. 1st down

Success rate converting on 3rd down by running the ball: 5-20
3rd and 2 - 3 yd gain
3rd and 6 - 7 yd gain
3rd and 1 - 2 yd gain
3rd and 1 - 1 yd gain
3rd and 1 - 1 yd gain

Summary: The Chiefs have a better rate of stopping 3rd down conversions against the run (25%) than they do overall (33%) even when teams run the ball in very short yardage situations. In none of these cases have opponents made the first down by more than 1 yd!

Big Play Analysis:
Here is a breakdown of EVERY rushing play in which the Chiefs have surrendered 10 yds or more, the situations in which those plays occured and the results.

Rush 10 or more:
-TEN 3rd and 20 at TEN 26 - 16 yd gain. Only 51 sec left in first half. TEN led 7-3. Time expired on drive.
-TEN 1st and 10 at KC 41 - 12 yd gain. 7:39 left in 4th qtr. TEN led 23-10. Play resulted in 1st down and drive ended with FG.
-TEN 1st and 10 at TEN 33 - 18 yd gain. 3:53 left in 4th qtr, TEN led 26-10. Drive ended with punt.
-2nd and 22 at TEN 39 - 10 yd gain. 2:31 left in 4th qtr. Same drive as above.
Damage: 3 pts. Final score: TEN 26 - KC 10

-DEN 1st and 10 at KC 21 - 17 yd gain. 8:07 left in 2nd qtr. DEN trailed 7-10. Drive ended with TD.
-DEN 1st and 10 at DEN 30 - 13 yd gain. 4:34 left in 2nd qtr. DEN led 14-10. Drive ended with TD.
-DEN 3rd and 2 at KC 24 - 12 yd gain. 2:00 left in 2nd qtr. same drive
-DEN 3rd and 24 at DEN 25 - 23 yd gain. 2:36 left in 2nd qtr. DEN led 21-10. DEN converted on next play (4th and 1) with 2 yd rush but drive ended in punt.
Damage: 14 pts. Final score: DEN 24 - KC 17

-MIA 1st and 10 at MIA 4 - 17 yd gain. 8:18 left in 1st qtr. Tied 0-0. Drive ended with punt.
-MIA 1st and 10 at MIA 29 - 12 yd gain. 3:43 left in 1st qtr. Tied 0-0. Drive ended with punt.
-MIA 2nd and 10 at MIA 25 - 20 yd gain. 6:26 left in 2nd qtr. CHIEFS led 7-0. Drive ended with punt.
-MIA 1st and 5 at KC 14 - 10 yd gain. 13:19 left in 3rd qtr. CHIEFS led 14-3. Drive ended with TD.
-MIA 1st and 10 at MIA 35 - 10 yd gain. Only 7 seconds left in game. Time expired and game ended.
Damage: 7 pts. Final score: KC 34 - MIA 15

-NE 2nd and 5 at NE 24 - 11 yd gain. 9:58 left in 4th qtr. CHIEFS led 41-7. Drive ended with TD
Damage: 7 pts. Final score: KC 41 - NE 14

-SF 1st and 10 at KC 30 - 12 yd gain. 6:16 left in 1st qtr. CHIEFS led 7-0. Drive ended with FG
-SF 2nd and 1 at KC 33 - 13 yd gain. 9:28 left in 3rd qtr. CHIEFS led 17-13. Drive ended in FG
-SF 2nd and 3 at KC 32 - 14 yd gain. 10:57left in 4th qtr. CHIEFS led 17-16. Drive ended in FG
-SF 2nd and 10 at SF 32 - 13 yds. 7:04 left in 4th qtr. SF led 19-17. Drive ended in FG
-SF 1st and 10 at KC 20 - 11 yd gain. 3:31 left in 4th qtr. same drive.
Damage: 12 pts. Final score: SF 22 - KC 17

-SD 1st and 10 at SD 44 - 11 yds. 5:50 left in 1st qtr. Tied 0-0. Drive ended with TD
-SD 1st and 10 at KC 35 - 12 yds. 11:34 left in 3rd qtr. CHIEFS led 20-14. Drive ended with FG
-SD 1st and 10 at KC 23 - 13 yds. 11:02 left in 3rd qtr. Same drive, back-to-back plays.
Damage: 10 pts. Final score: KC 23 - SD 20

-STL 2nd and 7 at STL 20 - 14 yd gain. 7:13 left in 1st qtr. STL led 7-0. Drive ended with punt.
-STL 3rd and 15 at STL 1 - 18 yd gain. 3:09 left in 3rd qtr. CHIEFS led 20-7. Drive ended with punt.
-STL 1st and 10 at KC 44 - 12 yd gain. Only 17 seconds left in game. CHIEFS led 34-17. Game ended.
Damage: none. Final score: KC 34 - STL 7

-NYJ 2nd and 10 at NYJ 49 - 12 yd gain. 1:29 left in 1st qtr. CHIEFS led 14-0. WILDCAT formation. Direct snap to Powell. Drive ended with punt.
-NYJ 1st and 10 at NYJ 19 - 21 yd gain. 11:06) left in 2nd qtr. CHIEFS led 14-0. Drive ended with TD
-NYJ 1st and 10 at 50 - 10 yd gain. 9:25 left in 2nd qtr. same drive.
-NYJ 2nd and 1 at KC 33 - 10 yd gain. 2:34 left in 3rd qtr. CHIEFS led 24-10. Drive ended with turnover on downs.
Damage: 7 pts. Final score: KC 24 - NYJ 10

-BUF 2nd and 19 at BUF 4 - 10 yd gain. 10 seconds left in 1st qtr. BUF led 7-3. Drive ended with punt.
-BUF 1st and 10 at BUF 20 - 10 yd gain. 3:44 left in 2nd qtr. BUF led 10-3. Drive ended with punt.
-BUF 1st and 10 at BUF 24 - 13 yd gain. 14:53 left in 3rd qtr. BUF led 10-3. Drive ended with goal line fumble through the endzone. Touchback. No points.
-BUF 2nd and 10 at KC 17 - 12 yds. 9:54 left in 3rd qtr. FUMBLE. same drive.
-BUF 1st and 10 at BUF 24 - 14 yd gain. 8:08 left in 3rd qtr. BUF led 10-3. Drive ended in FG
-BUF 1st and 10 at BUF 38 - 27 yd gain. 7:34 left in 3rd qtr. same drive. Back-to-back plays.
Damage: 3 pts. Final score: KC 17 - BUF 13

My analysis: In most cases when the Chiefs have given up a long run play they have recovered to force a punt. Only 12 of these 37 plays came on KC's side of the field and have led to 60 pts or 6.7 pts per game. You could argue that our run defense cost us wins against the Broncos and 49ers, but the Chiefs were in great position to win both of those games. Everything went wrong in the Titans game so I can't really blame the run defense more than anything else, there. In most cases these big plays came when the Chiefs had a comfortable lead and were in a "prevent" defense, when they were expecting a pass, or near the end of a half when a big gain would not lead to a score.

Bottom line: The Chiefs run defense certainly has room for improvement, but most of the time they have been very good when they needed to be. They have not allowed a single rushing TD all season and have been excellent on 3rd downs. Couple this with one of the best pass defenses in the NFL and it is easy to see why the Chiefs have won 6 of thier last 7 games!


Comments and questions are welcome and encouraged.

[ctchiefsfan]

Topeka.....You blew a hole as big as the sun through my hypothesis. My thanks for having the computer skills to be able to do this work and even more so for being willing to take the time to do so!!!!

I'm going to take a little time to study this....as if I was a coach with a game next week against the Chiefs....but I have a niggling feeling at the bottom of my neck that despite DESTROYING my original hypothesis you have actually made my point....which was that you can't build your offensive game plan against the Chiefs around 4.7 yards and a cloud of dust. But I don't know. That's just a feeling at the bottom of my neck. Same one I get when some friend tries to introduce me to a "really nice single girl your age".

With your forbearance Topeka, I will study this overnight and then pass along my thoughts on the subject.

But please accept my thanks for all the work this took. I wish I had the computer skills to do this kind of analysis.

[jap1]

This was kinda what I expected, although we gave up more big plays than I had thought. Almost all of the big plays you listed occurred in long yardage situations. I wouldn't be surprised if we were in the nickel in the majority of those situations. My thoughts were that our base/goalline run D was solid, but our nickel run D was weak. I'm very interested in seeing how Berry's presence back in the lineup affects this. I suspect a healthy Berry would improve our nickel run d significantly with his speed, quick reads, and tackling.

Thanks for the analysis.

[TopekaRoy]

Thank you both for the kind words. It wasn't at all difficult, just time consuming. I worked about 6 hours putting it all together, but I had fun doing it. I could have done it with just a sheet of paper and a pocket calculator (and I wouldn't REALLY need the calculator!) but it went a little quicker with the computer.

A couple of things really impressed me. The first is how good the Chiefs run defense has been on 3rd down. I would have expected more conversions on 3rd and short. The 2nd was how many of those drives with big runs ended with a punt. Some of those were because opposing offenses "shot themselves in the foot" with a penalty, a turnover, or 3 straight incompletions, but most of the time the defense stiffened up after allowing a big rush and made the stops when they had to.

I was also surprised to find out that none of the rushing plays went for more than 26 yds. I would have thought somebody would have "taken it to the house" at least once or twice. This says a lot about safeties maintaining their gaps and the speed of our linebackers to run down RBs.

By contrast, Jamaal Charles has rushes for 39, 36, and 26 yds, Knile Davis has a run for 48 and another for 25 yds. De'Anthoney Thomas had a run for 26 yds and even Alex Smith had one run for 25 yds. That's 7 plays for 25 yds or more just on our team, yet our defense has only given up a run of 25 yds or more once!

And now we have Berry and Mays back. Imagine how good our run defense might be if Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito were playing!