Draft WR projections
Article from ESPN that uses a matrix to project the productivity of the WRs in this class over the first 5 years. If WR is our first pick, maybe it would be best to trade back a few...unless Cooper is still available. What do you all think?
The 2014 wide receiver draft class has only a year in the books, but is on track to become the best ever. Ten rookies each had more than 500 yards receiving; three of those surpassed 1,000. Although the success of these players is incredible, it can hardly be called surprising. Not only did scouts predict a big year for rookie receivers, but Football Outsiders' system for projecting wide receivers -- Playmaker Score -- anticipated that the 2014 class was loaded with ones who were likely to be successful in the pros.
Can the 2015 draft class match its predecessor's accomplishments? According to Playmaker Score, probably not. Although the 2015 class includes some strong prospects and a sprinkling of interesting sleepers, there are also a number of players with bust potential, rated higher by scouts than by Playmaker Score. It adds up to a potentially good, but not great, class of pass-catchers.
What follows is a ranking of the top receiver prospects for 2015 according to our model, including a projection for the average number of regular-season receiving yards that each will gain in his first five NFL seasons (for a full explanation of how Playmaker Score works, you can find the criteria at the bottom of this article):
1. Amari Cooper, Alabama
Projected yards per first five seasons: 643
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 3 overall
Similar historical prospects: Marvin Harrison, A.J. Green
Cooper is rated by Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay as the best wide receiver prospect in this class, and he hits most of Playmaker's buttons. Cooper had an impressive junior campaign, gaining 1,727 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. Moreover, there is also nothing about Cooper's situation that gives reason to doubt Playmaker's numbers. Unlike many wide receiver prospects in this year's draft, Cooper did not play in the spread, and he faced some of the toughest defenses in the country. Historically, Cooper probably best compares toIndianapolis Colts great Marvin Harrison as a prospect; Cooper was not quite as dominant as Harrison was at Syracuse, but the mid-'90s Big East wasn't a match for today's SEC, either.
2. Nelson Agholor, USC
Projected yards per first five seasons: 501
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 37 overall
Similar historical prospects: Terry Glenn, Ike Hilliard
Agholor hopes to break USC out of a wide receiver-producing slump that has included first-round busts such as Mike Williams and R. Jay Soward. More recent draft picks Robert Woods and Marqise Lee have had their moments but haven't yet broken out. Agholor was a reasonably productive receiver at USC, with 1,313 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.
3. Breshad Perriman, UCF
Projected yards per first five seasons: 491
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 45 overall
Similar historical prospects: Kenny Britt, Darrell Jackson
The son of former Detroit Lions wideout Brett Perriman was a consistently productive receiver for the Knights, including a stellar junior season despite a huge drop-off at quarterback from Blake Bortles to Justin Holman. Perriman enters the draft as an underclassman, has an impressive 19.5 yards per catch average, and his other Playmaker numbers are solid. He put up 40-yard times of 4.24 and 4.27 at his pro day on Wednesday.
4. Sammie Coates, Auburn
Projected yards per first five seasons: 461
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 67 overall
Similar historical prospects: Demaryius Thomas, Stephen Hill
When Coates was a sophomore, 2.5 percent of Auburn's pass attempts were touchdown passes to Coates. Similarly, he dominated his team's passing attack as a junior, gaining 3.16 yards per team attempt. He also averaged a superb 21.4 yards per catch and is entering the draft as an underclassman. However, while Coates' rate stats were good, his total stats were not that impressive, with only 741 receiving yards and four touchdowns as a junior. Auburn averaged fewer than 300 passing attempts per season while Coates was on the roster. Indeed, Coates' numbers may simply be a function of an offense where a few deep passes to Coates served as a change of pace, rather than a true reflection of Coates' ability as a receiver. In that regard, Coates is hauntingly similar to a huge bust that Playmaker Score loved: Stephen Hill. Coates' scouting report is similar; like Hill, Coates is a limited route-runner with inconsistent hands.
5. Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
Projected yards per first five seasons: 449
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 27 overall
Similar historical prospects: Michael Crabtree, Chris Chambers
Strong, 6-foot-2 and 217 pounds, had a nice performance at the scouting combine, running a 4.44 40-yard dash and producing a 42-inch vertical jump, but that helps his projection only a little. His college production was good, but not great, given that the Sun Devils passed the ball a healthy 467 times.
6. Devin Smith, Ohio State
Projected yards per first five seasons: 427
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 25 overall
Similar historical prospects: Mike Wallace, Javon Walker
Smith had only 33 receptions as a junior. However, when he caught the ball, he made big plays, averaging 20.7 yards per reception and scoring a touchdown on more than a third of his passes.
7. Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
Projected yards per first five seasons: 423
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 65 overall
Similar historical prospects: Roddy White, Lee Evans
Playmaker Score usually dislikes wide receivers who enter the NFL draft as seniors, but it makes an exception for Lockett, who was absolutely dominant as a junior. He somehow managed to post 1,264 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns that season, even though Kansas State passed only 314 times.
8. Kevin White, West Virginia
Projected yards per first five seasons: 406
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 4 overall
Similar historical prospects: Michael Floyd, Donnie Avery
Despite his lofty stock, the Playmaker Score is not in love with Kevin White's production.AP Photo/Julio CortezThe case against White begins with the fact that he is entering the NFL as a senior, rather than as an underclassman. White's total numbers for his senior year were good: 1,447 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns. However, the numbers for senior wide receivers who succeed at the NFL level are often much better than White's, especially considering that the Mountaineers threw the ball 534 times. Kendall Wright, for example, entered the draft as a senior, but had more impressive totals: 1,663 receiving yards in only 424 team passing attempts. Jordan Matthews, who entered last year's draft as a senior, had a similar total yardage number (1,477) but in fewer team passing attempts (376). White may have impressed with a 4.35 second 40-yard dash at the combine, but all else being equal, the combine 40 isn't a consistent predictor of future NFL success for receivers.
9. DeVante Parker, Louisville
Projected yards per first five seasons: 404
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 12 overall
Similar historical prospects: Bryant Johnson, Peter Warrick
At least Kevin White fans can argue that he played through his senior year because of his two years at junior college. Parker doesn't even have that excuse. Parker has been playing college football for a full four years, and he has never topped 1,000 yards receiving. It's not as if he had a weak supporting cast, either: As a junior, he had the benefit of catching passes from first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater at his pre-NFL peak. A future starting NFL wide receiver should have put up video-game-like numbers in those conditions, but Parker produced only 885 yards. Parker put up some nice per-game numbers as a senior after returning from an early injury, but if he had the talent level of a Julio Jones, he would already be in the NFL.
10. Stefon Diggs, Maryland
Projected yards per first five seasons: 403
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 87 overall
Similar historical prospects: Antonio Brown, Az-Zahir Hakim
Playmaker's 2015 sleeper favorite was a five-star recruit out of high school and had a great freshman season in 2012, catching 54 passes for 848 yards and six touchdowns while also rushing for 114 yards on 20 attempts. These numbers are more impressive in context, as Maryland attempted only 304 passes that year and Diggs was catching passes from a trio of freshman quarterbacks. He is regarded as only a mid- to late-round prospect by conventional wisdom because his sophomore and junior years were marred by injury and inconsistency. It's true that these injury concerns could return to haunt Diggs' professional career, but at a low price, the upside that Diggs teased as a freshman is well worth the gamble.
11. Devin Funchess, Michigan
Projected yards per first five seasons: 402
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 35 overall
Similar historical prospects: Brian Hartline, Greg Little
Funchess drops lower on this list because of his low touchdown rate; he has never scored more than six touchdowns in a single season. Since 2000, only three junior wide receivers have been drafted in the top 100 picks despite never topping 750 yards or six touchdowns in a college season: Hartline, Little, and Yamon Figurs.
12. Phillip Dorsett, Miami (Fla.)
Projected yards per first five seasons: 391
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 46 overall
Similar historical prospects: Mark Clayton, James Jones
The same problems that affect Parker's projection plague Dorsett's as well. Dorsett also is entering the draft as a senior and lacks a year of the extremely good production that is typical of the senior wide receivers who go on to succeed in the NFL.
13. Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri/Oklahoma
Projected yards per first five seasons: 373
Scouts Inc. rank: No. 31 overall
Similar historical prospects: Jonathan Baldwin, Yatil Green
Playmaker Score sometimes has trouble with players like Green-Beckham, who had limited college action and thus are less likely to produce a sample size sufficiently meaningful to forecast their futures. However, Green-Beckham was not particularly impressive in either of his two seasons of college football. During his best season, his sophomore year, Green-Beckham had only 883 receiving yards, even though Missouri passed a healthy 414 times. Green-Beckham was not even the Tigers' No. 1 receiver: teammate L'Damian Washington edged him with 893 receiving yards. In contrast to Green-Beckham's high draft grade this year, Washington went undrafted in 2014 and has been kicking around various practice squads. Granted, Washington didn't run a 4.49 40-yard dash at 6-5, 237 pounds, but the point is that Green-Beckham's lack of elite production is a red flag in our model.
Playmaker Score is based on a statistical analysis of all Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996-2012, and measures the following:
• The wide receiver's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from ESPN's Scouts Inc.;
• The wide receiver prospect's best or "peak" season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e., a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a 2.50);
• The prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt;
• The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply "0" for a player whose peak season was his most recent season);
• The receiver's vertical jump from pre-draft workouts;
• A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility;
• The wide receiver's college career yards per reception, and;
• The receiver's rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt.
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Originally Posted by N TX Dave
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