The Justin Houston Question....

[ctchiefsfan]

The "Houston Question" is bugging all Chiefs fans. No doubt about that. So I will try to offer some thoughts on the situation...

#1) Nobody knows what Houston is demanding in terms of a long term deal. But it seems to be safe to say that it's at LEAST somewhere in the range of $16 to $18 million per year (cap hit) with somewhere close to 50% guaranteed.

#2) Can the Chiefs afford that? With the projected salary cap increases over the next few years it seems certain that the Chiefs could pay that kind of money.

#3) But can the Chiefs REALLY afford that? The price would be very HIGH. Not so much in terms of cash, but in terms of how such a contract would limit their options over the next few years. I think we all agree that the Maclin signing was a great stroke by Dorsey. Would signing a huge contract with Houston mean that for at least the next couple of years the Chiefs were unable to make any major Free Agent signings? I get the feeling that this question is what is really holding up a long term deal with Houston. Dorsey is not the type to go out and make a huge splash with multiple Free Agent signings but he does like to have the flexibility to pick up a high quality Free Agent here and there to fill a hole at a skill position. Would a huge deal for Houston take away that flexibility because we were in "Cap Hell"?

#4) How much would our pass rush suffer without Houston? (WARNING....I may pish some people off here).....No doubt our pass rush would suffer. But would it still be a high caliber pass rush? I'm not sure that losing Houston would be quite the disaster some might think. We've got Ford. We've got Poe. We've got Hali (and I think that if Hali was used more situationally this year rather than an "every down" type player we might be able to get 2 more years out of him rather than 1. Lord knows if we asked him to come back for 2016 he almost certainly would.)

#5) So what does all my gibberish above all mean? Well...I think it means that even without Houston we can have a top 10 or top 12 defense and that we'd have a whole boatload more money to spend on keeping Poe and other contracts that are coming up and would still have plenty of money left over to pick off a high quality Free Agent or two every year to fill some holes.

So maybe, when all is said and done at the end of this year maybe the best thing to do would be to hit him with the "Non-Exclusive" Franchise Tag again in 2016 and if nobody signs up to give us 2 first round picks for him them maybe the best thing would be to just trade him for a first round pick. In short...I think that this Chiefs team can continue to improve and compete at a high level even without Houston.

May the flames begin.

[brdempsey69]

No flame here.

Houston had a great season in 2014, no doubt. But what if Ford were able to produce double-digit sacks along with Hali producing double-digit sacks in 2015, plus the Chiefs Defense being able to snag 20+ interceptions as opposed to only 6 in 2014?

The point here is there are too many "what ifs" that we won't get answers to until the 2015 season gets underway. But there is one thing that is certain --

DONKEYS AIN'T WINNING ANY SUPER BOWL IN LEGIT FASHION ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD !! <-- Sorry, but I couldn't resist.

[Chiefs4life24]

Here's a question can he be traded while on the franchise tag??

[ctchiefsfan]

Here's a question can he be traded while on the franchise tag??

As I understand it, a player under the Franchise Tag can only be traded when/if he signs the tender....which Houston has not done at this point. But once he signs it then yes he can be traded.

[Chiefs4life24]

Thank you CT

[ctchiefsfan]

No flame here.

Houston had a great season in 2014, no doubt. But what if Ford were able to produce double-digit sacks along with Hali producing double-digit sacks in 2015, plus the Chiefs Defense being able to snag 20+ interceptions as opposed to only 6 in 2014?

The point here is there are too many "what ifs" that we won't get answers to until the 2015 season gets underway. But there is one thing that is certain --

DONKEYS AIN'T WINNING ANY SUPER BOWL IN LEGIT FASHION ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD !! <-- Sorry, but I couldn't resist.

LOVE the "couldn't resist"!

Your points about Ford and Hali are well-taken. I think double-digit sacks from both might be a little optimistic, but not outside the realm of possibility.

Tamba is getting up there. We have worked him long and hard for a good while now. He has pretty much been an every down type player. If he continues to play that kind of a role this year then it will probably be time for him to hang up the cleats. BUT....if we were to cut his playing time and use him mostly on obvious passing downs I think we could get another 2 or maybe even 3 years from him and more importantly I think it might increase his sack numbers.

Ford didn't do a lot last year but then he didn't play a lot either because we had Houston and Tamba. If we are missing Houston I think that Ford might take a big step forward in this defense. Bob Sutton runs a VERY GOOD Defense and gets the VERY MOST from his players.

And we must not forget about Poe. In 2013 he had 4.5 sacks and last year he had 6 sacks. In addition he is very good at flushing an enemy QB out of the pocket where it is easier for our OLBs to get to the QB.

The important thing is NOT how many sacks one individual gets. What IS important is how many sacks the TEAM gets.

Last year the Chiefs had 46 sacks. Huston got 22 of them. Meaning Houston got 47.8% of team sacks. IMPRESSIVE.....but lets not forget that in 2013 when we went 11-5 Houston had "just" 11 sacks while the Chiefs had a total of 47 sacks. Meaning that in 2013 Houston "only" made 23.4% of all sacks. So YES! This team CAN make sacks without Justin Houston.

Letting Houston go via trade or not matching an offer sheet would be RISKY! NO DOUBT. But is it not AN EVEN GREATER RISK to tie up the amount of money that Houston wants in just 1 player????

Let me explain......

We renegotiated Jamaal Charles deal last year....Over 4 years Charles' new deal came to an average cap number of $7.15 million per year. We also extended Alex Smith's deal last year and the last 4 years of his contract come to an average of $17.725 per year.

If I am to believe what is posted in this thread.... http://www.chiefscrowd.com/forums/sh...hould-be/page2 then what is "fair" for Houston is a deal that over it's last 4 years averages $19.06 million per year.

Is Houston REALLY worth an average of $11.91 million more per year than Jamaal Charles???? Further, Am I really expected to believe that Houston is worth an average of $1.33 million more per year than Alex Smith?????

I have a hard time with both those ideas.

In addition comes the IMPORTANT question....would such a contract for Houston cripple us for salary cap to the point where we wouldn't have the money to sign Dontari Poe and several others next year? Would such a deal for Houston mean that we didn't have the money to do anything in Free Agency next year? THESE ARE MY REAL CONCERNS about giving Houston the type of deal he seems to want.

Can we really afford to tie up an average of $19 million per year in a player who is not a QB????

One last thought....Peyton manning is scheduled to make a salary cap number of $17.5 million this year and an average of $19.5 million per year on the 2 years remaining on his contract. Is Houston REALLY worth more than Manning???

I just think it too risky to tie up as much money as Houston seems to want in just one player. I think Dorsey should be sniffing around to see if anyone would trade for Houston in exchange for a 1st round pick. We can't trade him at the moment because he has not signed his tender, but I'm sure Dorsey knows what Houston wants so I figure he could shop Houston around to see if someone is willing to pay what Houston wants and willing to give up a 1st round pick to get him. Since Houston seems to be "all about the money", I'm sure that if Dorsey found him a team that was willing to pay what he wants then Houston would be happy to sign the tender and then immediately be traded.

[Coach]

I am not in favor of paying any player $20mm/yr. Franchise QB, maybe.. LB, no way. Let him play under the tag this year. If he gets another 20 sacks, tag him again. If he get 10 sacks, his asking price may be more reasonable.

[ctchiefsfan]

I am not in favor of paying any player $20mm/yr. Franchise QB, maybe.. LB, no way. Let him play under the tag this year. If he gets another 20 sacks, tag him again. If he get 10 sacks, his asking price may be more reasonable.

I agree.

[jap1]

Tamba is getting up there. We have worked him long and hard for a good while now. He has pretty much been an every down type player. If he continues to play that kind of a role this year then it will probably be time for him to hang up the cleats. BUT....if we were to cut his playing time and use him mostly on obvious passing downs I think we could get another 2 or maybe even 3 years from him and more importantly I think it might increase his sack numbers.

I would think that if we had Ford, Hali AND Houston, that Tamba would play more on rushing downs, and Ford would focus on passing downs. He is the best run stuffer of the three, and the least athletic. Ease Ford into the nfl by allowing him to focus on his passing game (blitzing and coverage).

Sticking to the topic at hand, the further along it gets, I am more and more okay with Houston not signing long term, and possibly going elsewhere in the near future. I really have a hard time justifying passing any one player that is not a shoe in HOF QB $20mm/yr. That is what, 1/7th of our entire salary cap?!

Maybe if he had those numbers on a team that didn't have hali, Poe, and a decent secondary (I'd say excellent if it wasn't for the fact that our 2nd CB sucked last year). Who is making who look good?!

Part of me also hopes he holds out for one or two games, and Ford shows why he was a first round pick. It frustrates me that our first rounder hasn't seen any significant playing time.

[ctchiefsfan]

I would think that if we had Ford, Hali AND Houston, that Tamba would play more on rushing downs, and Ford would focus on passing downs. He is the best run stuffer of the three, and the least athletic. Ease Ford into the nfl by allowing him to focus on his passing game (blitzing and coverage).

Yes....If Houston comes in it should be easier to limit Hali's snaps and thereby maybe get an extra year out of him. He has proved himself to be an outstanding Chief and I'll be sad when he retires.

Sticking to the topic at hand, the further along it gets, I am more and more okay with Houston not signing long term, and possibly going elsewhere in the near future. I really have a hard time justifying passing any one player that is not a shoe in HOF QB $20mm/yr. That is what, 1/7th of our entire salary cap?!

Exactly what I was trying to say. $20 million is just too much for an OLB...even a great one like Houston. Not to mention that while he had an AMAZING year last year his other seasons while without a doubt great were nothing to justify the kind of money he is looking for. His previous years were as follows...2011-16 games-5.5 sacks; 2012-16 games-10 sacks; 2013-11 games-11 sacks. If he was a consistent 20 sack per year guy then maybe, just maybe the kind of money he is looking for would be justified. But his previous 3 years he averaged 0.6 sacks per game. Last year he averaged 1.38 sacks per game. MORE THAN DOUBLE his previous average. I just don't see how that justifies paying him the kind of money he appears to be looking for. As I said earlier paying him that kind of money just limits our options for signing other players and getting free agents too much.

Maybe if he had those numbers on a team that didn't have hali, Poe, and a decent secondary (I'd say excellent if it wasn't for the fact that our 2nd CB sucked last year). Who is making who look good?!

Another excellent point. The sacks he gets are NOT all his own doing.They are a combination of the enemy QB having to hold onto the ball longer than he'd like and pressure from Poe, Hali and the rest of the defensive line. Take away his supporting cast of a strong secondary and a strong D-line and I doubt he would look half as good as he did last year. Don't get me wrong....he is a GREAT OLB, but not as good as he thinks he is. And certainly he hasn't proven over the course of 4 years that he is a good enough OLB to justify a payday that is similar to a top 5 QB.

Part of me also hopes he holds out for one or two games, and Ford shows why he was a first round pick. It frustrates me that our first rounder hasn't seen any significant playing time.

I hadn't thought about that aspect or possibility. While I'd hate to lose Houston for any part of the season--especially early when we seem to face the toughest part of our schedule, I certainly would like to see Ford get some more playing time.