Alex Smith vs. Russell Wilson. Let's compare.

[ctchiefsfan]

These Alex Smith threads usually annoy me, but I'm always willing to listen to a real Chiefs fan rather than some random Smith-hating troll.

So I had a little time on my hands and decided to see how one of the most successful QBs these last 3 years compares with Alex Smith.

I'm not saying this "proves" anything and I don't expect to change anybody's "opinion" but hey.....Wilson has 3 years in the NFL and he has a pretty impressive record. 5 playoff wins. 2 Super Bowl appearances. 1 Super Bowl win. NOBODY is going to say that is not impressive.....RIGHT??????

So Wilson must be HUGELY BETTER than Alex Smith.....RIGHT??????

LET'S LOOK AND SEE.....

I'm only going to compare 2013 and 2014 because Alex was with the 9ers in 2012 and only played 10 games that year...But for the Smith-haters, please be aware that Alex's per game numbers were pretty similar in the 10 games he played in 2012 to the 2 years he played in KC.

I'm not good at putting charts and graphs on bulletin boards like this but I'll do my best. Wilson is in black. Alex is in (red).

Attempts.....completions....% complete...yards.............avg completion....yds / game...TDs ......INT...sack.....

2013

407-(508).....257-(308)....63.1%-(60.6)..3357-(3313).......8.2-(6.5)........209.8-(220.9)..26-(23)..9-(7).44-(33)


2014

452-(464)...285-(303).....63.1-(65.3)....3475-(3265).......7.7-(7.0).......217.2-(217.7)...20-(17)..7-(6?).42-(45)

FULL DISCLOSURE......All above numbers are from nfl.com. There is a "?" after Alex's # of interceptions in 2014 because my memory is that he had 7 ints last year, not 6.

So what does all this tell us????.....

First off, there is ONLY one stat where Wilson is vastly better than Alex and that is yards per completion. But is anybody REALLY SURPRISED???? We all know our WRs SUCKED in 2014 and were nothing special in 2013. Reid-Dorsey seem to have taken steps to address that problem.

2cond.....Alex Smith's average completion % is ALMOST IDENTICAL to Wilson.

3rd.....Alex Smith averages MORE yards per game passing than Wilson. (remember, Alex only played 15 games per season these 2 years so while he had substantially fewer yards per season, his yards per GAME averaged more yards per game than Wilson....although only by 5.8 yards per game. Essentially, identical numbers.

4th....Alex averages 0.2 fewer touchdowns per game (1.2 FEWER POINTS PER GAME BY PASSING TOUCHDOWN) than Wilson. IS IT JUST POSSIBLE THAT THIS HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH SECOND RATE WIDE RECEIVERS?????

5th.....Alex Smith averages fewer interceptions per season than Wilson. IS THAT A BAD THING????????? I don't think so.

6th....Alex Smith averages fewer sacks per season than Wilson. IS THAT A BAD THING??????? I don't think so.

CONCLUSION......Alex Smith over the last 2 years has been nearly identical to Russell Wilson (the most successful QB in the NFL those same two years in all stats EXCEPT yards per completion.)

The only nagging area where Alex is not almost a TWIN of Wilson (or slightly better) is yards per completion. And unless my memory has completely failed me I think this has been discussed here at some length and that the general consensus has been that this problem has been a combination of sub-standard wide receivers and a weak offensive line.

SUMMATION.... The Chiefs CAN win playoff games with Alex Smith at QB. The Chiefs CAN make the Super Bowl with Alex Smith at QB. The Chiefs CAN win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith at QB. WHY??? Because his VIRTUAL TWIN in stats has won 5 playoff games, made 2 Super Bowls and won one Super Bowl in the last 3 years.

ALEX NEEDS BETTER WIDE RECEIVERS AND A BETTER OFFENSIVE LINE. HAVE WE DONE ENOUGH IN THOSE TWO AREAS? I DON'T KNOW. BUT I DO KNOW THAT ALEX CAN TAKE US WHERE WE WANT TO GO IF WE WILL GIVE HIM THE TOOLS HE NEEDS.

[doobs_05]

These Alex Smith threads usually annoy me, but I'm always willing to listen to a real Chiefs fan rather than some random Smith-hating troll.

So I had a little time on my hands and decided to see how one of the most successful QBs these last 3 years compares with Alex Smith.

I'm not saying this "proves" anything and I don't expect to change anybody's "opinion" but hey.....Wilson has 3 years in the NFL and he has a pretty impressive record. 5 playoff wins. 2 Super Bowl appearances. 1 Super Bowl win. NOBODY is going to say that is not impressive.....RIGHT??????

So Wilson must be HUGELY BETTER than Alex Smith.....RIGHT??????

LET'S LOOK AND SEE.....

I'm only going to compare 2013 and 2014 because Alex was with the 9ers in 2012 and only played 10 games that year...But for the Smith-haters, please be aware that Alex's per game numbers were pretty similar in the 10 games he played in 2012 to the 2 years he played in KC.

I'm not good at putting charts and graphs on bulletin boards like this but I'll do my best. Wilson is in black. Alex is in (red).

Attempts.....completions....% complete...yards.............avg completion....yds / game...TDs ......INT...sack.....

2013

407-(508).....257-(308)....63.1%-(60.6)..3357-(3313).......8.2-(6.5)........209.8-(220.9)..26-(23)..9-(7).44-(33)


2014

452-(464)...285-(303).....63.1-(65.3)....3475-(3265).......7.7-(7.0).......217.2-(217.7)...20-(17)..7-(6?).42-(45)

FULL DISCLOSURE......All above numbers are from nfl.com. There is a "?" after Alex's # of interceptions in 2014 because my memory is that he had 7 ints last year, not 6.

So what does all this tell us????.....

First off, there is ONLY one stat where Wilson is vastly better than Alex and that is yards per completion. But is anybody REALLY SURPRISED???? We all know our WRs SUCKED in 2014 and were nothing special in 2013. Reid-Dorsey seem to have taken steps to address that problem.

2cond.....Alex Smith's average completion % is ALMOST IDENTICAL to Wilson.

3rd.....Alex Smith averages MORE yards per game passing than Wilson. (remember, Alex only played 15 games per season these 2 years so while he had substantially fewer yards per season, his yards per GAME averaged more yards per game than Wilson....although only by 5.8 yards per game. Essentially, identical numbers.

4th....Alex averages 0.2 fewer touchdowns per game (1.2 FEWER POINTS PER GAME BY PASSING TOUCHDOWN) than Wilson. IS IT JUST POSSIBLE THAT THIS HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH SECOND RATE WIDE RECEIVERS?????

5th.....Alex Smith averages fewer interceptions per season than Wilson. IS THAT A BAD THING????????? I don't think so.

6th....Alex Smith averages fewer sacks per season than Wilson. IS THAT A BAD THING??????? I don't think so.

CONCLUSION......Alex Smith over the last 2 years has been nearly identical to Russell Wilson (the most successful QB in the NFL those same two years in all stats EXCEPT yards per completion.)

The only nagging area where Alex is not almost a TWIN of Wilson (or slightly better) is yards per completion. And unless my memory has completely failed me I think this has been discussed here at some length and that the general consensus has been that this problem has been a combination of sub-standard wide receivers and a weak offensive line.

SUMMATION.... The Chiefs CAN win playoff games with Alex Smith at QB. The Chiefs CAN make the Super Bowl with Alex Smith at QB. The Chiefs CAN win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith at QB. WHY??? Because his VIRTUAL TWIN in stats has won 5 playoff games, made 2 Super Bowls and won one Super Bowl in the last 3 years.

ALEX NEEDS BETTER WIDE RECEIVERS AND A BETTER OFFENSIVE LINE. HAVE WE DONE ENOUGH IN THOSE TWO AREAS? I DON'T KNOW. BUT I DO KNOW THAT ALEX CAN TAKE US WHERE WE WANT TO GO IF WE WILL GIVE HIM THE TOOLS HE NEEDS.

Alex smith thread

Stevie ray with a rebuttal that 95% of the board hates

Then everyone's yells hater

Then we either fail this season and everyone blames everyone except Alex or they finally win a playoff game and people say "see told you we could win with Alex"

[doobs_05]

Wilson and Alex are the same type of player, difference is that Wilson has a ring. The oline and wr core are not that far off from each other

[ctchiefsfan]

Alex smith thread

Stevie ray with a rebuttal that 95% of the board hates

Then everyone's yells hater

Then we either fail this season and everyone blames everyone except Alex or they finally win a playoff game and people say "see told you we could win with Alex"

Thanks for the reply doobs. Without a doubt, you have a valid point that results matter. THEY SURE AS HELL DO!!!

My original post was not to suggest that Alex is the "second coming of Christ". NOT MY INTENTION BY A LONGSHOT.

All I was doing was pointing out that in VERY RECENT HISTORY a QB with damned near identical numbers to Alex has achieved some pretty spectacular success. That DOES NOT PROVE that Alex Smith will do the same. Football is a team sport and that will never change. I mean honestly.....if Wilson's numbers and Alex's numbers are so close, where the hell can you look for a reason for failure other than the rest of the team????

But what the above numbers DOES show is that with the right team around him Alex *should* be able to achieve CONSIDERABLE SUCCESS.

The above numbers do PROVE BEYOND A SHADOW OF A DOUBT that the notion (believed my some) that you can't win a Super Bowl in the current NFL without a QB that puts up 4,500 passing yards per season is nothing more than a pile of steaming pig dung. And y'know...I DON'T EAT PIG SHIP.

[ctchiefsfan]

Wilson and Alex are the same type of player, difference is that Wilson has a ring. The oline and wr core are not that far off from each other

So you agree that Alex and Wilson are similar. And the WRs and O-line are too. So what is your explanation for the variation in success? I am not being facetious. I'm honestly asking.

My *opinion* is that our O-line and WRs aren't quite there yet. If you have a different explanation I'd honestly like to hear your theory.

[Almighty chief]

its about extending the play when the line gets flushed.. and the wr helping by finding a way to getting open ..Alex is a real good scrambler... always a fan of risk deep bombs, the worst is we could move the ball, might get defense pass interference, if its a pick it'd be like a punt. if your defense is good the reward will outweigh the risk. it'd give jc some space too. that's why cardinals and broncos were so successful last year and also some help from the refs.. they should fine the refs for messing up pivotal games or be able to challenge penalties.

[doobs_05]

So you agree that Alex and Wilson are similar. And the WRs and O-line are too. So what is your explanation for the variation in success? I am not being facetious. I'm honestly asking.

My *opinion* is that our O-line and WRs aren't quite there yet. If you have a different explanation I'd honestly like to hear your theory.

Better team player as in spreads the ball around. WR get td reception (yes I understand it's not all Alex's fault, but he is throwing the passes) better rush defense. Marshawn and jamaal wash each other out they both do their running the best.

That's it. Russell has the ring, Alex doesn't. The both have the same average for air yards (so deep throws are out).

[ctchiefsfan]

its about extending the play when the line gets flushed.. and the wr helping by finding a way to getting open ..Alex is a real good scrambler... always a fan of risk deep bombs, the worst is we could move the ball, might get defense pass interference, if its a pick it'd be like a punt. if your defense is good the reward will outweigh the risk. it'd give jc some space too. that's why cardinals and broncos were so successful last year and also some help from the refs.. they should fine the refs for messing up pivotal games or be able to challenge penalties.

EXCELLENT point about Alex's scrambling ability. IMO we have not taken advantage of it as we should--largely because our WRs did not know (or were too lazy) to know what to do when Alex broke out of a collapsing pocket. At that point the receivers need to immediately do whatever they can to get open and Alex needs to do whatever he can to extend the play long enough for somebody--ANYBODY to get open. Once a QB starts scrambling, many pass defenders will move towards the QB to prevent a long run by the QB. Both Alex and our receivers should be studying film from Roger Staubach and some of the other greats at scrambling. A scramble (as opposed to a designed rollout) is essentially a busted play and it becomes the job of every receiver to give the QB an open target and the job of the QB to give his receivers a few seconds to get open.

[doobs_05]

And my day is ruined with the news about rowdy roddy piper

[ctchiefsfan]

Better team player as in spreads the ball around. WR get td reception (yes I understand it's not all Alex's fault, but he is throwing the passes) better rush defense. Marshawn and jamaal wash each other out they both do their running the best.

That's it. Russell has the ring, Alex doesn't. The both have the same average for air yards (so deep throws are out).

So unless I have misunderstood your post, you agree that Alex is perfectly capable of winning some playoff games and a Super Bowl IF WE PUT THE RIGHT TEAM AROUND HIM. Have I got that right??? Just want to make sure I am not misunderstanding your post.