NFL Picks: New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Mid-Season Superbowl
Written by Robert Johnson Tuesday, 30 October 2007
The “look-ahead ” NFL picks factor is usually given a lot of credibility by football handicappers , but when looking backwards at the action from Week 8, it sure doesn’t seem like New England or Indy was all that worried about this week’s NFL game against each other. Both the Pats and the Colts were coming off convincing, 20-plus point divisional road wins , they were both laying points against non-conference opponents and Indy was playing away from home. By logical standards, the gameplan should be to grab an early lead, grind away the clock and get out of Dodge without risking injury to any key starters, right?
The Pats were leading by 52 points before they finally let Washington on the board, tying the `00 St. Louis Rams record for most consecutive 34-plus point games to start a season and drawing heaps of criticism for their style of play-calling in a game that they obviously had no chance of losing.
Indy did things in reverse order. The Panthers got out to an early lead on a three yard scamper into the end zone by DeShaun Foster before the Colts, likely fearing that their streak of “undefeatedness ” was in jeopardy, proceeded to pile up their biggest stack of road points since Week 8, 2006 (10 games).
At least the NFL marketers got their wish – two amazing football teams squaring off against each other mid-season with perfect records . It’s a good thing the Sunday and Monday night games are huge games between division rivals or Commissioner Goodell might just find a reason to bump `em.
Two of three Colts home games this year have gone over the total and seven out of New England’s eight games overall have ended on the high side, forcing the lines maker to hang the highest posted total of the season on this game . Each of these teams is plus-11 in the turnover department and both offenses are capable of scoring every time they touch the ball, so it is possible that this game gets into the sixties before the day is out.
Keep in mind that New England lost both games against the Colts in the `06 season, including the Conference Championship, and in the past two seasons when teams have met the year following a playoff game against each other, seven of nine revenge matchups played over the number.
Preseason odds had the Colts favored slightly over the Pats to win Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Arizona, but this game is going to have an impact on ‘Futures’ boards across the globe. The straight-up winner between these teams in the past three regular season meetings has gone on to win that year’s Super Bowl.
Predicting a winner in this game is not going to be easy. There are so many strengths on each of these teams and very few measurable weaknesses, so other than betting one side or the other just to have action on the game, it might be more prudent to scour the card for better value elsewhere and then just go back to betting ON Indy and New England to cover every week for the rest of the year.
Sound foolish? Your record so far this season would be 13-1-1 ATS (.929).
The Patriots and the Colts – Super Bowl 41 and-a-half, as the ESPN crew was calling it on Monday Night Football; should make for an exciting weekend.
SportsBetting.com currently has an NFL 5% juice special and the Patriots listed as a 5.5-point favorite and a total of 56.5.