Alex Smith 2016

**ctchiefsfan** · 07-14-2016, 05:19 PM

Somewhere today I read a prediction that this season Alex would have just over 4,000 yards passing and just over 400 yards rushing. For a total of about 4,450 total yards. Last year his yards were 3,486 passing, 498 rushing, 3,984 total. So the prediction was for an increase in total yards of about 10% or about 29 yards per game (based on Alex playing all 16 games).

Everybody knows I like Alex and think he is much better than he gets credit for, but my first reaction was..."Alex Smith...almost 4,500 total yards in a season? NO WAY!" But I figured I had better check some stats.

In 2012 (10 games, last year with the 9ers) he had an average of 186.9 combined yards per game. In 2013 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249.5 yards per game. An increase of 62.6 yards combined per game. And increase of OVER 30%. In 2014 (15 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 234.6 combined yards per game. A decrease of 14.9 combined yards per game. 7%. In 2015 (16 games with the Chiefs) he had a combined average of 249 yards per game. He was basically back to his 2013 averages.

So what is my conclusion? Roughly 250 combined yards per game is basically the Alex Smith "normal" with the Chiefs right now. So the prediction of 281.2 combined yards per game (16 game season--12.5% increase--is a STRETCH).

BUT....Here is the thing in both 2013 and 2015 he had over 400 yards rushing (431 and 498 respectively) but in 2014 he only had 254 yards rushing. And that accounted for most of his decline from 2013. His 2015 passing was 217.9 p/g, 2014 was 217.7 and 2013 was 220.9. So we shouldn't expect a huge increase in passing yards per game unless Reid completely abandons the run. And I think 500 Y/P/G rushing is probably close to his cap.

So IMO it all comes down to how much can the passing game improve? And most of that will be on the receivers and tight ends.

All in all I have a hard time seeing Alex going much over 260 combined yards per game for a total of maybe 4,160 based on a 16 game season. I think that is about his cap barring us having the best O-Line in the NFL.

What do y'all think?

**milkman** · 07-17-2016, 05:16 PM

Originally Posted by jason1981

That moght be so but the talent and potential are better tuay what we had as the #2 and 3 wr is concerned. Im really hoping conley steps up.

Potential, yes.

But the fact remains, until these guys step up and prove it, they are nothing more than potential and hope.

**milkman** · 07-17-2016, 05:21 PM

Originally Posted by Chiefs4life24

From Maclin to #6 we are loaded with awesome talent even the new Robinson you guys are gonna like him, I want to keep 7 receivers, hopefully we can fit Mitch Mathews on the 53 cause he will be taken if he is on the practice squad

Listen, there are some guys in the mix that I have a lot of hope for.

Conley stepping up and becoming a reliable #2 and weapon in the intermediate and deep passing game.
Streater returning to the form he displayed prior to injury a couple years ago.
DaMarcus Robinson becoming a threat.

But we are not talking about proven commodities.

We are talking about hope.

**Chiefs4life24** · 07-17-2016, 07:08 PM

I don't see hope I see what some can't these guys are gonna be rockstars

**Chiefs4life24** · 07-17-2016, 07:10 PM

It's wrong to say you have potential and hope for these guys, I can see it written on the wall, these guys are gonna be awesome. You don't have to be proven to make an impact that is a fact

**jason1981** · 07-17-2016, 09:33 PM

Originally Posted by Chiefs4life24

It's wrong to say you have potential and hope for these guys, I can see it written on the wall, these guys are gonna be awesome. You don't have to be proven to make an impact that is a fact

Um you have no clue if these wr will ever do any good. Like milkman said until they proven themselves their still question marks. You cant say honestly you know thy will and its all written on the wall. So much more talented athletes have failed and busted before so you can never know for sure. We can only hope they live up to thir potential. You never know who will have an injury or not. You can make an educated guess but its still a guess.

**milkman** · 07-17-2016, 10:02 PM

Originally Posted by Chiefs4life24

It's wrong to say you have potential and hope for these guys, I can see it written on the wall, these guys are gonna be awesome. You don't have to be proven to make an impact that is a fact

No, that is not a fact.

The fact is there are hundreds, if not thousands, of players with potential that never touched that potential.
That's why there are far more busts on the streets than in Canton.

The players that lived up to that potential are the ones that made impacts.

**Chiefs4life24** · 07-17-2016, 10:16 PM

Robinson, Russell, White, Murray, Jones, Mathew's etc will all live up to their potential. Especially Jones he is an absolute monster. He is Poe 2.0 just a little better than Poe

**ctchiefsfan** · 07-18-2016, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by milkman

but hope is all that there is at this point.

Actually, we do have a bit more than just hope. We have Andy Reid who has a fairly well proven talent for getting the most out of the people on his roster. Yes, Reid has his faults but getting the best from his people is one of the things he does well.

On the subject of unproven players and hope. Hope...and your coach....are really all you have when you bring in a new player. That's true whether discussing a rookie or a free agent star you bring in. The NFL is littered with guys that were stars with a team and then went to another team and did next to nothing. Bowe and a few of our recent free agency losses come to mind. So whether a new person on a team is a rookie or a player with a well-proven track record there are no guarantees of success. But with Reid the chances of success are better than the average.

**jason1981** · 07-18-2016, 05:00 PM

Well with all this crazy hit going on and black lives matter should be labeled a terrorist group since all they is promote all their propaganda and riots which has lead to cops being killked. I think we need skme football to take our minds off all this crazy **** and dont even get me started on hillary who should be in jail. But seriously all lives matter and saying black lives matter is a racist statement in itself and hypocritical. Thats like saying white lives matter. We would be crushed if we said that. Cops are human just like us. Sometimes they break under pressure and make mistakes and maybe even incompetent but that doesnt make the racists. This jesse jackson dude should be in jail. He thrives on making drama and causing crap. Not saying theres not racist cops but do you think they would be so racist to kill in cold blood just cuz they dont like the color of your skin. Being racists and killing someone cuz their color of skin isnt even the same thing. Its a whooe different level. That would be like radical racism. But cops can be stuck up and jerks and all but that doesnt make them racist. And they just want to do their job and go home just like all of us. If they think they coud be better cops then they should be a cop and its not always thay easy when you always have constant danger around you. I spent a year in iraq and it sucks worrying every day non stop if something going to happen and they do it their whole carreer. So its not always so simple of making the right call. Cops panic just like humans. Their not perfect. Theres a split decision they have to make what if the hesitate and their partner gets shot or killed cuz he hesitated. Then he has to live with that. So its a thin line they have to live with. And i dont want the cops to hesitate and then costs someones life cuz they hesitate. 1st things cops do is make every situation safe. If you respect and comply what the officer says then you put tue cops at ease and they wont be so nervous or panicky. But if you dont listen and out the cop on edge he might take your actions the wrong way and bad things happen and thats alll on the civilian for not complying to the offficer. Respect the cops and their there for you own protection. There might be some bad apples in law enforcement but you cant punish all for tue actions of a few. But by in large mor3 cops habe been killed by black men that cops than blacks killed by cops. The biggest of them is black on black crime. Most black deaths have been by blacks. Its this black lives matter and this main stream media making sll this crap get so far out of hand. We just jump to conclusions without waiting for sll the facts. Anyways. I had to get this off my chest. Im so ready for football. Maybe football will unite everyone.